Our panel of NFL Insiders predicts Week 15's biggest upsets, fantasy flops and potential sleepers.
Plus: Wild-card Super Bowl contenders and picking for the Giants in a 2018 draft do-over.
What's your top upset pick for Week 15?
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: Steelers +3 over Patriots. This one almost feels like cheating, as Pittsburgh is playing at home and remains one of the league's better teams despite a three-game losing streak. The Steelers have scored at least 30 points in all but one of their six home games this season, whereas the Patriots are 3-4 and averaging 23.3 points per game away from Gillette Stadium. Both of these AFC favorites figure to be highly motivated coming off rough last-second losses, but I think the home team wins it, 28-27.
Eric Karabell, senior fantasy writer: Titans +2.5 over Giants. Sorry, but I just do not buy that the Giants are anything close to a decent team despite scoring a million points on the road on Sunday. Look at who they faced. The Titans remain a top-10 team defense and one of a handful of teams permitting fewer than 20 points per game. Derrick Henry might not run wild again, but he doesn't have to, and we'll see whether Odell Beckham Jr. feels like suiting up or not.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Chargers +3.5 over Chiefs. Going on the road for a Thursday night game is tough. I just think the Chiefs' victory over Baltimore appeared draining for Kansas City. The Chiefs look like a team that has played its best ball and is holding on. The Chargers feel like the team with more left in the tank. I don't know if L.A. can withstand Patrick Mahomes' best punch, but the Chargers do have the pass rush to make things interesting, especially with Kareem Hunt gone and Tyreek Hill playing hurt.
Kevin Seifert, NFL national writer: Chargers +3.5 over Chiefs. In previous seasons, it would be easy to assume that some kind of meltdown -- special teams or otherwise -- would spoil the Chargers' perfectly legitimate opportunity to get over the hump. After their Week 12 victory in Pittsburgh, however, anything seems possible. No NFL team has a better home winning percentage during the past three seasons than the Chiefs (.857), but they have been weakened offensively since the teams' Week 1 meeting and are vulnerable.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Browns +3 over Broncos. I'm tapping into the Mike Clay special here, as Mike has been a Browns apologist since the offseason, with the results of late reflecting what he was banking on: This roster is much improved, Baker Mayfield is coming of age quickly, and, well, the Broncos just dropped a gotta-have-it game against the 49ers. With limited passing-game options, the Broncos aren't likely to breeze past capable opponents; look for the Browns to snag their sixth win of the season.
Which potential wild-card team can run the table to the Super Bowl, and why?
Clay: The Colts. Three words: Captain Andrew Luck. The Indianapolis offense has scored three-plus touchdowns in nine of its past 10 games. Luck has already thrown 34 touchdowns and sits fourth in the league in passing EPA. The icing on the cake is a much-improved defense, led by rookie Darius Leonard, that has allowed only 16 scores during its past eight games. Yes, the schedule has been light, but the Colts are a threat.
Karabell: I will go with an NFC team -- the Seattle Seahawks -- because it seems to me they have a prime opportunity. The Rams looked terrible Sunday night. The Saints looked terrible a week prior versus the Cowboys. The Chicago and Dallas quarterbacks have not won playoff games. Meanwhile, the Seahawks boast close road losses to the Rams and Bears, and like usual, Russell Wilson is efficiently thriving and the defense looked excellent against the Vikings. Wilson can outscore the younger NFC quarterbacks.
Sando: The Chargers, based on their quarterback and pass-rush rotation. This assumes the Chiefs will win the AFC West, which they might not do.
Seifert: AFC West runner-up. The Chargers are the obvious answer here, but they're not at all out of the running for the division title -- and possibly home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. That would push the Chiefs to the first wild-card spot, a clear danger to the rest of the AFC field. The scenario would have a legitimate chance if the Chargers win the teams' matchup Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium.
Yates: The Chargers. As we enter Week 15, it is possible -- if not likely -- that the Chargers could finish the season with the second best record in the AFC and slide in as the conference's fifth playoff seed. But with Philip Rivers playing at a near-MVP level, a dominant pass rush and excellent overall roster balance, this is the clear-cut choice among wild-card contenders.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Clay: Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions. If you were hoping for a bounce-back week from Golladay after an ugly 5-yard effort on Sunday, I have some bad news for you. Golladay is primed to face shadow coverage from Bills standout CB Tre'Davious White this week. This comes after Patrick Peterson shadowed him on all but one of his 15 perimeter routes in Week 14. Golladay's late-season prospects aren't much better, as Xavier Rhodes and Jaire Alexander are on the slate.
Karabell: Adrian Peterson, RB, Washington Redskins. It might seem obvious to sit all Redskins at Jacksonville, but Peterson was active in more than 60 percent of ESPN standard leagues in Week 14, and he is among the top 20 running backs in season PPR scoring. Plus, the Jaguars got embarrassed by Derrick Henry, of all people, so Peterson investors might get excited. Do not. Get the Jags D/ST for another potential home shutout. Oh, and I would stop short of making Henry a guarantee for his game, too.
Sando: Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He draws a tough matchup against a physical Ravens defense.
Seifert: Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers. Since Week 8, Jones has rushed for seven touchdowns -- the second-most in the NFL over that span. But he'll struggle against the Bears' defense, as most runners do. The Bears have allowed four rushing touchdowns all season, fewest in the league.
Yates: Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans. Yes, Henry likely guided anyone who started him to victory, and he was started in 15 percent of leagues on ESPN.com, so bravo to those who felt audacious enough to do so. Henry had a touchdown in five of seven games, which is the key to unlocking his fantasy value week to week. But he's also the backup to Dion Lewis (at least in terms of total usage) and has more than 60 yards in a game once this season. He's a touchdown-dependent player.
Let's give the Giants a 2018 draft do-over. Baker Mayfield still goes No. 1. Who should New York take at No. 2?
Clay: Sam Darnold, QB. The draft is mostly a lottery, and there's no easier path to wins in the NFL than having a great quarterback. Darnold might not pan out, but that doesn't mean drafting a "safe" running back (or any other player at an inferior position) is a sound business decision. It's not often you get an opportunity to select a 20-year-old quarterback with superstar upside without having to trade a truckload of draft picks to do so. The Giants should've gone that direction in April. And, if they really didn't like this quarterback class, adding Denzel Ward as a shutdown No. 1 corner would've been smart.
Karabell: Saquon Barkley, RB. I believe the Giants can actually get a decent QB in the 2019 draft, and in a few years nobody will remember they passed on Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen or the others. Barkley is special. Odell Beckham Jr. is special. I realize consensus thinks it should have been a QB, but were the Giants playoff-bound this year with Darnold or Rosen anyway? You know, the 2020 Giants can still be terrific.
Sando: Barkley.This is a great question because it forces us to focus on what we've learned since the draft. We now know Barkley is a special player. We know Eli Manning might not be finished. We know there could be decent veteran QBs with upside becoming available over the next couple years. We know the rookie QBs selected after Mayfield have mostly struggled. None looks like a sure thing or even a big difference maker. Would you rather play with or against those guys every week for the next three years? I'd choose going against them and take my chances. I do believe in the importance of positional value, which is why Bradley Chubb was another consideration here.
Seifert: Darnold. A top two pick is 1) rare, and 2) a great opportunity for a team in need of a quarterback succession plan. No matter how good Barkley turns out to be, the Giants' decision means they have a much harder job to fill their most important roster hole: a replacement for Eli Manning. FPI projects them to draft No. 10, but that could fall lower with a few more Barkley-powered victories. As the Browns have shown, a rebuild can't take hold until a high-potential quarterback is in place. Darnold has shown plenty of potential and would have benefited from coach Pat Shurmur's tutelage.
Yates: Josh Rosen, QB. SAQUON BARKLEY IS AMAZING. He's legitimately one of the best offensive players in the NFL already. It feels wrong to ever say anything that could be misconstrued as anti-Barkley, but the reality of position value is that a quarterback is the most important and essential roster cog in the NFL, and it is not close. Which leads us to the question of which rookie quarterback to pick? I leaned toward Rosen, as his throwing aptitude has stood out to me this season (albeit in dismal offensive circumstances). He's got a chance to be a stud.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 15.
Clay: Josh Reynolds, WR, Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers this season, over the past eight weeks and over the past four weeks. Yeah, it's a problem area. And it's even worse with Ronald Darby and, to a lesser extent, Jalen Mills out for the season. Reynolds aligns outside on 67 percent of his routes, which means he'll see a lot of struggling Rasul Douglas and Sidney Jones this week. All three Rams wideouts are top-35 fantasy options.
Karabell: Kenneth Dixon, RB, Baltimore Ravens. Gus Edwards gets most of the rushing attempts, but his last receiving target occurred in Week 8. Dixon is still working his way back from a knee injury, but his 15 points in PPR leagues against the Chiefs on Sunday were no fluke. The Buccaneers are no better equipped to handle Dixon's versatility.
Sando: Ian Thomas, TE, Carolina Panthers. Thomas led the Panthers in targets (11) and receptions (nine) against Cleveland and could continue to see opportunities as he fills in for Greg Olsen. Carolina figures to be throwing frequently to keep up with New Orleans.
Seifert: Justin Jackson, RB, Los Angeles Chargers. Jackson, and fellow rookie Detrez Newsome, could wind up getting the bulk of the work Thursday night in Kansas City. The Chargers aren't optimistic that they'll have Melvin Gordon or Austin Ekeler back healthy in time for the game.
Yates: DaeSean Hamilton, WR, Denver Broncos. When Emmanuel Sanders tore his Achilles on Thursday, the Broncos were in immediate need of contributions from youngsters in their receiver group. Hamilton led all Broncos wideouts with 69 snaps played, hauling in seven catches and a score. He figures to see a heavy workload alongside Tim Patrick, who saw 10 targets himself in Week 14.