With five weeks left in the NFL season, the playoff picture has become a lot clearer. Although there's competition for the lower playoff spots, the favorites have been identified.
The AFC has been dominated by New England and Pittsburgh yet again. The NFC features a big four of quality, well-balanced teams, one from each division. The undercard in the NFC also looks better than the undercard in the AFC. Seven NFC teams are at 7-4 or better, but only four AFC teams are.
Once we get to this point, analyzing postseason chances isn't just about figuring out which teams have the best chance to make it into January. It's also about figuring out which teams have the best chance to make it into February and Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis. We look at all these odds with the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation, simulating the season 50,000 times using Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. That produces playoff odds and Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams, as listed below. For a full explanation of how we calculate each team's playoff odds, click here.
AFC playoff projections
Favorites
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 99.9 percent
The Steelers have slowed down a bit over their past four games despite winning all four. Through Week 7, the Steelers were fourth in offensive DVOA and second in defensive DVOA. In Weeks 8-12, the Steelers have ranked ninth on offense and eighth on defense.
Nonetheless, the Steelers are still our favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. They make it to Minneapolis in 43.6 percent of simulations, winning the Lombardi trophy 20.3 percent of the time. The Steelers are still ahead of the Patriots in total DVOA, but the bigger consideration is that the Steelers will host the Week 15 game that's likely to determine home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs.
However, we use a generic equation in our playoff-chances simulation, and it doesn't account for the specific strengths and weaknesses of each team or the history that those teams have against each other. Our system doesn't know that the Steelers have lost five of their past six games against New England, including two of three at home. And our system doesn't know that Tom Brady has a history of destroying the Steelers' defensive scheme.
2. New England Patriots (9-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 99.5 percent
Our DVOA ratings think that the improvement of the Patriots' defense is a bit overstated. Much of what looks like improved defense is (a) improved field position thanks to the offense and special teams, or (b) things out of the Patriots' control, such as the terrible record of field goal kickers against New England.
But the defensive improvement is real, even if overstated. In Weeks 1-4, the Patriots had the worst defense in the league, 28.4 percent less efficient than our average baseline. In Weeks 5-8, that improved to 26th, 11.7 percent less efficient than our average baseline. In the three games since their bye week, the Patriots have improved to 12th in the league, 2.6 percent more efficient than average.
The Patriots or Steelers represent the AFC in Super Bowl LII in nearly three out of every four simulations.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 95.6 percent
Jacksonville has been the league's least consistent team this season, with the highest variation of game-to-game DVOA. The Jaguars have huge victories over playoff-bound teams such as Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but they also lost to the Jets and Cardinals. The loss to Arizona didn't hurt their overall playoff chances much because of the general mediocrity below them in the AFC. But the loss dropped Jacksonville's odds of winning the AFC South from 85 percent to 66 percent and dropped its odds of making Super Bowl LII from 17 percent to 11 percent.
Nevertheless, the Jaguars are clearly in the driver's seat to finish first in the division, even though they lost to Tennessee and have to travel to Nashville for the rematch. They have three straight home games coming up, including easy contests against Houston and Indianapolis, and also travel to San Francisco on Christmas Eve before the Week 17 Tennessee rematch.
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
Chances of making the playoffs: 78.6 percent
Baltimore is right behind Jacksonville as the NFL's second least consistent team. And the Ravens are even more imbalanced than the Jaguars. Right now, Baltimore ranks No. 1 in our ratings for defense and special teams, but the offense is a dismal 26th.
Baltimore also has an easy remaining schedule, just as Jacksonville does. The Ravens have three home games, including Indianapolis and Cincinnati back-to-back to finish off the season. There's only a 3.6 percent chance of the Ravens winning the AFC North, since they're three games behind Pittsburgh and still have to go to Heinz Field in Week 14. But you should get ready to see the Ravens on wild-card weekend, probably frustrating whichever AFC West team lands the fourth seed.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (6-5)
Chances of making the playoffs: 72.1 percent
Things have really fallen apart for the Chiefs during the past few weeks. Since Week 6, they rank only ninth in offensive DVOA and a dismal 28th in defensive DVOA. But it's about to get a lot easier, which is why we still favor the Chiefs to finish on top of the AFC West. Kansas City has the easiest schedule in the league over the final month: Jets and Broncos on the road, and the Raiders, Chargers, and Dolphins at home. Not one of those teams has a winning record. The teams that will be challenging to overtake Kansas City for a division title, Los Angeles and Oakland, will each have to come and win at Arrowhead Stadium. Even if the Chargers can beat the Chiefs, the two teams will have the same overall record and a 1-1 record against each other.
6. Tennessee Titans (7-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 68.5 percent
Technically, the Titans are ahead of the Jaguars in tiebreakers for the AFC South crown. But the Jaguars have been the far superior team this season, eighth in DVOA compared to Tennessee ranking just 22nd. And the Titans have a more difficult remaining schedule. They have two West Coast trips compared to just one for Jacksonville, and they play the healthy and dominating Los Angeles Rams instead of the competitive but riddled-by-injury Seattle Seahawks (whom they beat in Nashville earlier this season). The most important game by far will be that Week 17 rematch with Jacksonville; the Titans win the division two-thirds of the time in simulations in which they win that game.
Contenders
7. Buffalo Bills (6-5)
Chances of making the playoffs: 36.4 percent
When we last updated our playoff chances for ESPN Insider three weeks ago, the Bills had a 61.0 percent chance to make the postseason. Things are a lot more desperate now, as the Bills have declined on both offense and defense. At least they (probably) won't be messing around with Nathan Peterman as a starting quarterback again. But two remaining games against the Patriots give the Bills an uphill climb to reach the postseason. In simulations where they lose to the Patriots twice, the Bills make it only 17 percent of the time. They really need an upset in one of those games if they want to be playing in January.
8. Los Angeles Chargers (5-6)
Chances of making the playoffs: 28.7 percent
The Chargers are the anti-Chiefs, of course. In Weeks 1-5, they ranked 17th on offense and 25th on defense. Since Week 6, the Chargers rank ninth on offense and fifth on defense. The problem now will be going on the road and beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Right now, the Chiefs win the AFC West in roughly seven out of 10 simulations, with the Chargers winning two and the Raiders one. The Chargers also have a 7.2 percent chance of earning a wild-card spot, which would require a collapse of two teams out of the group of Baltimore, Buffalo, Jacksonville and Tennessee.
9. Oakland Raiders (5-6)
Chances of making the playoffs: 12.0 percent
Oakland's problem is the hardest remaining schedule among AFC contenders. The Raiders are the last AFC West team to play the Eagles, and they have to do it in Philadelphia. They also have to play the Chiefs in Kansas City and the Chargers in Los Angeles, although come to think of it, the latter is probably going to be more of a "home game" for the Raiders. Oakland also gets home games against the Giants (led by Geno Smith!) and the Cowboys (not led by Ezekiel Elliott, in the last week of his suspension).
Long shots
10. Cincinnati Bengals (5-6)
Chances of making the playoffs: 5.1 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 3.8 percent
11. Houston Texans (4-7)
Chances of making the playoffs: 1.6 percent
Houston traded its 2018 first-round pick to move up for Deshaun Watson last year.
12. New York Jets (4-7)
Chances of making the playoffs: 1.0 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 20.2 percent
13. Miami Dolphins (4-7)
Chances of making the playoffs: 1.0 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 16.1 percent
14. Indianapolis Colts (3-8)
Chances of making the playoffs: 0.1 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 pick: 0.5 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 65.2 percent
15. Denver Broncos (3-8)
Chances of making the playoffs: 0.04 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 pick: 0.4 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 50.7 percent
16. Cleveland Browns (0-11)
Chances of making the playoffs: Eliminated
Chances of getting the No. 1 pick: 76.7 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 99.9 percent
Chances of getting two top-5 picks (thanks to Houston trade): 11.9 percent
Cleveland finishes 0-16 in 20.3 percent of our simulations this week. The Browns' most likely wins are Week 14 (Green Bay at home, 41 percent chance to win) and Week 16 (at Chicago, 39 percent chance to win).
NFC playoff projections
Favorites
1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
Chances of making the playoffs: 99.99 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 seed: 64.7 percent
Chances of getting a bye week: 84.6 percent
Chances of Super Bowl LII appearance: 40.0 percent
Chances of Super Bowl LII championship: 24.4 percent
It's all systems go for the best team in the NFL, currently holding on to the best record, the No. 1 spot in weighted DVOA and the title of Super Bowl favorites. Although the Eagles have not guaranteed themselves a playoff spot quite yet, they miss the playoffs in only one of our 50,000 simulations this week. (It would require them to lose out while Dallas wins out.)
2. Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 98.9 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 seed: 23.5 percent
Chances of getting a bye week: 62.9 percent
Chances of Super Bowl LII appearance: 19.3 percent
Chances of Super Bowl LII championship: 10.3 percent
The NFC's four division leaders currently hold four of the top five spots in weighted DVOA, and all four teams rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA, although the three teams other than Philadelphia tend to see their ranks and Super Bowl chances switch around each week. The Vikings have the highest playoff chances because they have the least amount of competition within their division, but they are fifth in weighted DVOA, the only one of the NFC division leaders to rank behind an AFC team (Pittsburgh at No. 4). The Vikings have to play three of their final five games on the road, including back-to-back tough trips to Atlanta and Carolina the next two weeks.
3. New Orleans Saints (8-3)
Chances of making the playoffs: 96.7 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 seed: 4.8 percent
Chances of getting a bye week: 21.5 percent
Chances of Super Bowl LII appearance: 16.0 percent
Chances of Super Bowl LII championship: 9.4 percent
The Saints passed New England to rank as our No. 1 offense after Week 12, but their defense fell to No. 10 after their injury-riddled secondary allowed big games to Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff. The Saints are the only NFC team with two rivals for their division title, but they also have the easiest remaining schedule of the NFC contenders. Although they must face Atlanta both at home and away, the Saints get to host Carolina for a rematch and the Jets for what should be an easy victory. The Saints win the NFC South in 78.3 percent of our simulations, and if they beat Carolina on Sunday, that goes up to 90.8 percent. A Week 17 game in Tampa Bay may not even end up meaning much.
4. Los Angeles Rams (8-3)
Chances of making the playoffs: 95.9 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 seed: 6.3 percent
Chances of getting a bye week: 23.4 percent
Chances of Super Bowl LII appearance: 19.5 percent
Chances of Super Bowl LII championship: 12.0 percent
When we last covered the playoff chances three weeks ago, the Rams were entering their proving ground: three games in four weeks against the other NFC division leaders. So far, it's gone pretty well, as they lost on the road but held serve at home against New Orleans. There are still plenty of tough games left to go, however. The Rams play three of their next four on the road, and the only home game is against the league's best team, the Eagles.
One unit that differentiates the Rams from the other top NFC squads: special teams. The Rams are No. 2 in special-teams DVOA, while the Eagles rank 10th and the other NFC division leaders are below average. (Carolina, which could take over the NFC South lead this weekend, also has strong special teams, ranked fourth.)
Contenders
5. Carolina Panthers (8-3)
Chances of making the playoffs: 76.8 percent
Carolina has a very tough road ahead for the final month, including trips to play in New Orleans this week and in Atlanta for Week 17. However, their other three games are all at home, with a difficult contest against the Vikings followed by easier matchups with Green Bay and Tampa Bay. Since the Panthers have the tough schedule and start a game behind New Orleans, they win the NFC South in only 16.5 percent of simulations. Even if they beat the Saints on Sunday at the Superdome, they win the division only about half the time.
But while the Panthers are a game behind New Orleans with a tough schedule, the Falcons are a game behind the Panthers with an even tougher schedule. That makes Carolina the clear favorite to win a wild-card spot. They end up as the No. 5 seed in 42 percent of simulations and the No. 6 seed in 18 percent of simulations.
6. Atlanta Falcons (7-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 50.6 percent
Three weeks ago, the Falcons' odds of making the playoffs had fallen to just 15 percent. But they've won three straight games and watched most of the other NFC contenders falter during the past month. Most importantly, the Falcons have defeated pretty much everyone who might be competing with them for the final playoff spot. They've already beaten Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay and, most importantly, Seattle. With all those head-to-head wins, it won't even matter that three of Atlanta's four losses came to AFC teams.
Atlanta has the most difficult remaining schedule in the league based on average DVOA of opponent, drawing Minnesota on Sunday and then New Orleans twice in three weeks. But the good news is that Seattle has the second-hardest remaining schedule, and that's the team that the Falcons cannot fall behind.
7. Seattle Seahawks (7-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 41.9 percent
Here's a surprise: The Seattle defense hasn't really played worse since losing Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor to injury. But there are certainly more tests on the way, with Philadelphia coming to CenturyLink Field on Sunday and the Rams visiting two weeks later. In between, the Seahawks have to fly out to play Jacksonville, which will be less of a test for their defense and more of a test for their porous offensive line. And after those three games, the Seahawks will travel to Dallas and be the first team to face Ezekiel Elliott when he returns from his suspension.
So although Seattle has been better than Atlanta this year (10th in weighted DVOA, while Atlanta is 15th), it is going to be very difficult to get past the Falcons and into the sixth playoff seed. A tie doesn't do Seattle any good because the Seahawks lost to the Falcons on Monday night two weeks ago. In fact, Seattle's best bet to make the playoffs might be a Carolina collapse that would make room for both Pete Carroll and his protégé Dan Quinn to return to the postseason.
8. Detroit Lions (6-5)
Chances of making the playoffs: 24.3 percent
If Detroit seems like an afterthought this year, it might be because they've been playing a fairly pedestrian brand of football. They're 14th in offensive DVOA and 19th in defensive DVOA, essentially kept above average by their No. 3 special teams (primarily kicker Matt Prater and rookie return man Jamal Agnew). Only one of the Lions' final five opponents has a winning record -- they travel to Baltimore on Sunday -- but three of their final five games are on the road. It doesn't seem too tough for the Lions to finish 3-2 and end up with a winning record. But the NFC is so strong this year that 9-7 is probably not going to get the Lions into the postseason. The Lions make the playoffs in 15 percent of simulations where they finish 9-7 but in 63 percent of simulations where they finish 10-6.
Long shots
9. Washington Redskins (5-6)
Chances of making the playoffs: 6.7 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 0.2 percent
10. Green Bay Packers (5-6)
Chances of making the playoffs: 5.0 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 0.2 percent
11. Dallas Cowboys (5-6)
Chances of making the playoffs: 1.9 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 1.6 percent
12. Arizona Cardinals (5-6)
Chances of making the playoffs: 1.0 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 3.7 percent
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)
Chances of making the playoffs: 0.2 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 13.9 percent
14. Chicago Bears (3-8)
Chances of making the playoffs: Less than 0.01 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 pick: 0.1 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 28.6 percent
Although the Bears are not technically eliminated, they do not make the playoffs in any of this week's 50,000 simulations.
15. New York Giants (2-9)
Chances of making the playoffs: Eliminated
Chances of getting the No. 1 pick: 3.3 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 84.2 percent
16. San Francisco 49ers (1-10)
Chances of making the playoffs: Eliminated
Chances of getting the No. 1 pick: 19.0 percent
Chances of getting a top-5 pick: 97.4 percent
Methodology
The odds listed here come from a weekly Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation that plays out the rest of the season 50,000 times. Based on our ratings and home-field advantage, a random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. Early in the season, these probabilities are based on a combination of Football Outsiders' preseason projections and weighted DVOA. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' proprietary defense-adjusted value over average metric, which looks at a team's performance on every play and adjusts based on situation and opponent, explained further here. Weighted DVOA lowers the value of games from more than two months ago to get a better picture of how teams are playing right now.) Ratings for Arizona, Green Bay, Houston and Tampa Bay are adjusted due to quarterback injuries. Ratings for Dallas are adjusted for Ezekiel Elliott's suspension (and return in Weeks 16-17).
You can find the full playoff odds report, including the odds of each team winning each of the six seeds and the Super Bowl, on FootballOutsiders.com. Note that our odds will be different from playoff odds you might find elsewhere on ESPN.com (or at FiveThirtyEight.com) because each set of team ratings is computed differently.