In a season of parity, it looks like most of the NFL is still in the playoff race. After all, most of the league is still floating around close to .500. Nineteen teams, in fact, sit between 3-5 and 5-3.
But there's a difference between having a win-loss record that shows you can theoretically make it to the playoffs and truly having a good chance of getting there. At a play-by-play level, some of those 4-4 teams have played a lot better than other 4-4 teams. Remaining schedules are all over the place, with some teams getting three home games and others getting five. Which games teams have won and lost also matters, as teams start to build their tiebreaker résumés with head-to-head victories plus division and conference records.
To look at which teams have a strong chance to play in January and which teams are just hanging on, we've simulated the season 50,000 times using Football Outsiders DVOA ratings and produced current playoff probabilities for all 32 teams below. For a full explanation of how we calculate each team's playoff odds, click here.
AFC playoff projections
Favorites
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 98.9 percent
Week 5's 30-9 loss to Jacksonville was a horrible performance by Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers as a whole. It was also clearly an aberration.
The Steelers' only other loss came in overtime and required a number of fluky plays (such as Chicago recovering six of the game's seven fumbles). Even with that Jacksonville blowout, DVOA ranks the Steelers sixth on offense and fourth on defense. Things get easier the second half of the season: The average DVOA of Pittsburgh's remaining opponents is 27th in the NFL, and five of the eight games are at Heinz Field.
Combine performance so far with that schedule, and our simulation has Pittsburgh winning the AFC's No. 1 seed more than half the time. That goes up to 65 percent if the Steelers beat the Patriots in Week 15, which would give them tiebreakers over both New England and Kansas City. Because they get the No. 1 seed so often, we have the Steelers as our Super Bowl favorites, winning in roughly one out of every five simulations (21.2 percent).
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)
Chances of making the playoffs: 95.7 percent
You know by now how good the Jaguars' pass defense has been this season. Jacksonville is No. 1 in defensive DVOA despite ranking 31st against the run. If the season ended now, DVOA would rank the Jaguars as the No. 3 pass defense of the past 30 years, trailing only the 2002 Buccaneers and the 1991 Eagles. What you probably don't realize is that the Jacksonville offense, despite being led by Blake Bortles, has actually been good. This week, the Jaguars moved from 14th to 12th in offensive DVOA. Bortles is 14th in QBR. That's above average!
Our playoff projections have the Jaguars far ahead of the Titans, winning the division 75 percent of the time. That might be a surprise because both teams are 5-3, Tennessee has a head-to-head victory over Jacksonville, and the Week 17 rematch will be in Nashville. But Jacksonville has been the much better team this season (fourth in overall DVOA, with Tennessee 18th) and has the No. 31-ranked schedule the rest of the way. Seattle and Tennessee are the only future opponents that currently have winning records.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (6-3)
Chances of making the playoffs: 93.3 percent
When I wrote about playoff odds five weeks ago, Kansas City was 4-0, and we listed its odds at 92.5 percent. But the Chiefs have gone 2-3 the past month, and their odds have moved up only 0.8 percent. The good news is that things get a lot easier from here on out. After a Week 10 bye, the Chiefs have the easiest remaining schedule in the league. Four of the seven games are in Kansas City, and Buffalo is the only team on the schedule with a winning record. Not a single future Kansas City opponent ranks higher than 17th in DVOA.
4. New England Patriots (6-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 88.7 percent
This is the team with which you'll find the biggest discrepancy between Football Outsiders' metrics and other advanced metrics such as ESPN FPI. A big reason is that DVOA is accounting only for play this season, whereas FPI includes some past data. The fact remains that the Patriots have been good this season but not great. They've had a lot of close games. They've also had a good amount of luck. For example, opposing field goal kickers have gone 9-for-16; one of those was blocked, but the other six misses were gifts, completely out of New England's control. The Patriots have the best offense in the league, but their defense is one of the league's worst. (It has been dead last most of the season but is 31st right now, ahead of Oakland.)
However, the Patriots still have a one-game lead in the division, and their remaining schedule has only one opponent (Pittsburgh) that currently ranks in the top half of the league in DVOA. Even if they continue to play at this underwhelming level for the rest of the year, the Patriots are almost guaranteed a playoff spot and could make some noise in the postseason. If their defense manages to improve to even a league-average level? Look out.
Contenders
5. Buffalo Bills (5-3)
Chances of making the playoffs: 61.0 percent
Four weeks into the season, the Bills ranked No. 1 in defensive DVOA. Now they are 16th. They also rank 20th on offense. The Bills are 5-3 despite being an essentially average team because they've played the easiest schedule in the league so far. However, their future schedule isn't that much harder. It looks tough for the next few weeks, with games against New Orleans, Kansas City and New England. But note that the final month features Indianapolis and a home-and-home series with Miami.
If the Bills can go 2-2 the next four games, a 10-6 or 9-7 season becomes a very realistic goal and probably ends Buffalo's 17-year playoff drought. Right now, the Bills make the playoffs in 97 percent of simulations in which they go 10-6 and two-thirds of simulations in which they go 9-7.
6. Tennessee Titans (5-3)
Chances of making the playoffs: 56.7 percent
The Titans are 5-3 despite being outscored this season 193-181. They rank only 18th in DVOA, which is a big reason that the Jaguars win the AFC South three times more often than the Titans in our simulations. But the Titans have also dealt with some very bad luck. They've recovered only three of the 15 fumbles in their games: 0-of-4 on offense, 3-of-10 on defense and Oakland recovering its own muffed punt in Week 1. Tennessee also ranks 31st in "hidden" special-teams value, the things a team can't control (opposing field goal accuracy and kickoff/punt distance).
Nonetheless, there are only six AFC teams with winning records, so the Titans have a nice lead for that last wild-card spot.
7. Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
Chances of making the playoffs: 41.3 percent
The Ravens have far better playoff odds than the AFC's other four-win teams because they've played far better than the AFC's other four-win teams. The offense is lousy, 24th in the league, but the Ravens are No. 2 in defense and No. 3 in special teams. They also play four of their final seven games at home.
Long shots
Individually, these teams are mostly out of the running. But collectively, at least one of them makes it to the postseason in 54 percent of our simulations.
8. Oakland Raiders (4-5)
Chances of making the playoffs: 13.8 percent
There has been plenty of worry about the inconsistency of the Oakland offense, but the Raiders rank fifth in offensive DVOA. The real problem is the defense, which dropped to last place this week. Somehow, nine games into the season, the Raiders still haven't managed to intercept a pass. The Raiders also have the ninth-hardest remaining schedule in the league, with three of their last four games on the road.
9. Denver Broncos (3-5)
Chances of making the playoffs: 12.7 percent
The Broncos still rank No. 1 in run defense DVOA, but the vaunted pass defense has been very close to average this season: 15th in DVOA and 12th in net yards per pass. Meanwhile, the offense (26th) and special teams (28th) are a mess.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)
Chances of making the playoffs: 8.6 percent
The Bengals have really stumbled since their Week 6 bye, with two losses and a narrow 24-23 victory over the Colts. The defense was fifth in DVOA through five weeks but has now dropped to 14th. The Bengals have only one fumble recovery on defense, but that isn't an issue of bad luck because they have only two forced fumbles.
11. New York Jets (4-5)
Chances of making the playoffs: 7.9 percent
This whole "Jets might actually be contenders" thing has been cute, but the Jets have played the league's second-easiest schedule to this point, with five of nine games coming at home. For the rest of the season, they play the 12th-hardest schedule, with four of seven games coming on the road, including three of their final four.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (3-5)
Chances of making the playoffs: 7.7 percent
In general, the passing game is much more important than the running game in the modern NFL, but this doesn't seem to be helping the Chargers. Los Angeles ranks 17th in both offensive and defensive DVOA. The offensive rating breaks down to 10th in passing and 26th in rushing, while the defensive rating breaks down to ninth against the pass and 26th against the run. The Chargers also rank dead last on special teams.
13. Miami Dolphins (4-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 7.1 percent
Miami might have four close wins, but the Dolphins have also been shut out twice. As a result, they are 31st in DVOA, behind both the winless 49ers and the one-win Giants (ahead of only the Browns). Miami is the worst 4-4 team measured by DVOA since the 1992 Indianapolis Colts (who somehow finished 9-7) and 1991 Phoenix Cardinals (who finished 4-12).
14. Houston Texans (3-5)
Chances of making the playoffs: 5.7 percent
Houston is still 12th in DVOA, but accounting for the loss of Deshaun Watson kills the team's playoff odds. Even if Watson were still around, it doesn't help that the Texans are two games back in the AFC South and 1-2 in divisional games.
Draft prep
15. Indianapolis Colts (3-6)
Chances of making the playoffs: 1.0 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 pick: 0.5 percent
Chances of getting a top-five pick: 53.5 percent
Although their record isn't much worse than that of the teams above them, the Colts are much lower in the playoff odds because they have the toughest remaining schedule in the league based on average DVOA of opponent.
16. Cleveland Browns (0-8)
Chances of making the playoffs: 0.0 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 pick: 54.9 percent
Chances of getting a top-five pick: 98.3 percent
Chances of getting two top-five picks (thanks to Houston trade): 13.1 percent
Although Cleveland is still not technically eliminated from the postseason, the Browns don't make the playoffs in any of our 50,000 simulations. We currently give them a 9.1 percent chance to finish 0-16.
NFC playoff projections
Favorites
1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)
Chances of making the playoffs: 98.1 percent
Despite the 8-1 record and some big recent wins, the Eagles are far from a juggernaut. What they are is extremely well-rounded. The Eagles rank in the DVOA top 10 in pass offense (4), run offense (9), pass defense (8), run defense (8) and special teams (5).
The schedule gets harder from now on. It goes from 30th in the league to 10th, and four of Philadelphia's final seven games are on the road. But a 2.5-game lead over Dallas means there's very little chance of the Eagles blowing their NFC East lead. They win the division in 88.5 percent of our simulations this week. They are also the NFC favorites, earning the No. 1 seed in 47.0 percent of simulations, a Super Bowl appearance in 32.3 percent of simulations and a championship in 18.0 percent of simulations.
2. Los Angeles Rams (6-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 90.2 percent
Now the shocker of shockers: Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings, the Los Angeles Rams have been the best team in the NFL in the first half of the season. They rank in the top 10 for all three phases of the game: ninth on offense, third on defense and first on special teams.
However, the Rams have combined this stellar play with some very good fortune, and it might not be quite as good the rest of the way. First, the schedule: The Rams' schedule so far ranks 29th in the league, but their remaining schedule ranks fourth. Second, the Rams have taken advantage of very poor performances by opposing special teams and lead the league in hidden special-teams value, the things a team can't control (opposing field goal accuracy and kickoff/punt distance). Opposing kickers are just 11-of-17 on field goals, with two of those misses coming from fewer than 40 yards. They've also missed two extra points. Only half of opposing kickoffs have gone for touchbacks, compared to 65 percent league-wide, and opposing punts have also been shorter than average.
Still, it's a bit stunning to see the Rams win the Super Bowl in 14.1 percent of our simulations. Only the Steelers and Eagles have better chances.
3. New Orleans Saints (6-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 88.5 percent
No team has improved its odds more since the last time I wrote about playoff odds five weeks ago. At that point, New Orleans was 2-2 and made the playoffs in only 29.4 percent of our simulations. The Saints have won six straight games, accompanied by a massively improved defense, which this week moved up to eighth in defensive DVOA. This is the first time the Saints' defense has ranked in our top 10 since the end of the 2014 season.
4. Minnesota Vikings (6-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 78.8 percent
This is another team that has significantly improved its playoff odds since the start of October, when we had them at just 31.3 percent. The Vikings can thank a four-game win streak that included two division wins, a 1-3 month for the Lions and the Aaron Rodgers injury in Green Bay.
The Vikings are currently above average on offense (11), defense (9) and special teams (14), though there are questions about who is going to be the quarterback going forward. Minnesota's chances are lower than those for the other three division leaders because they have one of the league's 10 toughest schedules in the final two months, with five of eight games on the road.
Contenders
5. Carolina Panthers (6-3)
Chances of making the playoffs: 58.0 percent
The Panthers are a run-and-defense team that doesn't have a running game. They are No. 5 in defensive DVOA but only 26th in run offense. Nonetheless, the Panthers have built a 6-3 record thanks to a 4-1 record in games decided by less than a touchdown. New Orleans has been the better team so far and already won in Carolina, so the Saints win the division 73.5 percent of the time, with the Panthers winning only 23 percent of the time. (Atlanta wins the other 3.5 percent.) The Panthers are the most likely team right now to win an NFC wild-card spot, but they'll need to win when they play three straight home games against NFC foes. Beating the Patriots and Bills is nice, but Carolina is only 4-3 in NFC games, which is important for tiebreakers.
6. Seattle Seahawks (5-3)
Chances of making the playoffs: 53.0 percent
The Seahawks stomped two of the league's worst teams, the Colts and Giants, but otherwise their season has been filled with close games. The home loss to Washington really hurt them, dropping their playoff chances by nearly 22 percent in just one week. The Week 15 rematch with the Rams is extremely important if Seattle wants a home game in the playoffs. In simulations in which the Seahawks win that game, they win the NFC West half the time. If they lose that game, the Seahawks win the NFC West only 5.9 percent of the time.
7. Dallas Cowboys (5-3)
Chances of making the playoffs: 43.1 percent
How do we account for the Ezekiel Elliott suspension turned non-suspension turned suspension turned non-suspension, ad infinitum? We gave Elliott a 60 percent chance of serving the suspension and penalized the Cowboys in those games. However, even when we removed the suspension entirely, the Cowboys' playoff odds went up to only 47.0 percent.
The Cowboys have a tough road to the playoffs, with the sixth-hardest remaining schedule in the league by average DVOA of opponent. Of course, that schedule is hard in part because the Eagles are so good, yet playing the Eagles twice also gives the Cowboys a shot at catching up in the NFC East.
8. Detroit Lions (4-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 40.6 percent
The Lions' defense has come back to earth in the past month; they ranked fourth in defensive DVOA in Weeks 1-4, then 18th in Weeks 5-9. The Lions also have an average passing game and the worst running game in the league. (That last one falls under the heading "what else is new?") They're getting partially propped up by excellent special teams that rank second in the NFL. Rookie Jamal Agnew leads the league in our punt return values, and kicker Matt Prater is third in field goal value. Things get easier for the Lions in the last two months, as they go from the sixth-hardest schedule so far to the third-easiest schedule remaining.
9. Washington Redskins (4-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 22.8 percent
Washington is in a similar situation to Detroit, except with more injuries and worse special teams. Washington also sees the schedule get a lot easier from here on out: They played the league's toughest schedule in the first nine weeks, but their schedule ranks 26th in the last eight weeks. But that schedule flip is the opposite of what's going to happen to the Cowboys; Washington's schedule gets easier because they've already played the Eagles twice and haven't played the Giants yet, but that means they don't get a chance to beat the Eagles and catch up in the NFC East race. It's hard to bounce back from an 0-3 division record, which is why Washington wins the NFC East in only 0.4 percent of simulations.
Long shots
10. Atlanta Falcons (4-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 15.1 percent
Both Atlanta and Green Bay have seen their playoff odds drop by more than 50 percentage points since the start of October, and it doesn't help the Falcons that the schedule gets much tougher the last two months. They get five of eight games at home, but their opponents include Dallas, Seattle, Minnesota and five division games, including both contests against the Saints.
11. Green Bay Packers (4-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 10.1 percent
The Packers have now lost three straight and look completely lost without Aaron Rodgers around. In our simulation, we gave Rodgers a small chance of returning in Week 15, but it's likely the Packers will be out of the playoff hunt by then. Their remaining opponents aren't too difficult, but five of those eight games are on the road.
Draft prep
12. Arizona Cardinals (4-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 0.9 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 pick: 0.0 percent
Chances of getting a top-five pick: 21.0 percent
13. Chicago Bears (3-5)
Chances of making the playoffs: 0.7 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 pick: 0.2 percent
Chances of getting a top-five pick: 23.2 percent
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6)
Chances of making the playoffs: 0.1 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 pick: 1.4 percent
Chances of getting a top-five pick: 54.0 percent
15. New York Giants (1-7)
Chances of making the playoffs: 0.004 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 pick: 7.9 percent
Chances of getting a top-five pick: 78.2 percent
16. San Francisco (0-9)
Chances of making the playoffs: 0.0 percent
Chances of getting the No. 1 pick: 34.9 percent
Chances of getting a top-five pick: 96.9 percent
Like Cleveland, San Francisco isn't technically eliminated but does not make the postseason in any of this week's simulations. We give the 49ers 6.6 percent odds of going 0-16, though that does not incorporate the possibility that Jimmy Garoppolo will be an improvement on previous quarterbacks if (and when) he enters the starting lineup.
Methodology
The odds listed here come from a weekly Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation that plays out the rest of the season 50,000 times. Based on our ratings and home-field advantage, a random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. Early in the season, these probabilities are based on a combination of Football Outsiders' preseason projections and weighted DVOA. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric which looks at a team's performance on every play and adjusts based on situation and opponent, explained further here. Weighted DVOA lowers the value of games from more than two months ago to get a better picture of how teams are playing right now.) Ratings for Arizona, Green Bay, Houston, and Tampa Bay are adjusted due to quarterback injuries.
You can find the full playoff odds report, including the odds of each team winning each of the six seeds and the Super Bowl, on FootballOutsiders.com. Note that our odds will be different than playoff odds you might find elsewhere on ESPN.com (or at FiveThirtyEight.com) because each set of team ratings is computed differently.