We're only four weeks in, but 2017 has certainly been a topsy-turvy season so far. Just a month ago, many fans were talking about the chances of New England going 16-0; now the Patriots are just 2-2 and somehow tied in the standings with the New York Jets. Other powerful teams from last year have also gotten off to 2-2 starts, including Dallas, Oakland and Seattle.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs are the last undefeated team despite cutting their No. 1 receiver in the offseason and losing their best defensive player to an Achilles tendon tear in Week 1. Even more shocking are the 3-1 starts from the Los Angeles Rams, who had one of the worst offenses in history a year ago, and the Buffalo Bills, who haven't made the playoffs this century.
How likely are the Chiefs to finish the job and win their first Super Bowl in almost 50 years? What are the Bills' chances of finally ending their long playoff drought? We can figure out those odds by going beyond just looking at each team's record after four games. It's important to consider just how well a team has played so far, based on a play-by-play breakdown rather than just the binary stat of wins and losses. We want to consider what we knew about how good a team was going into this year. We should also consider injuries as well as the schedule each team has yet to face, which is harder for some teams than others.
We've done all that using Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings and produced current playoff odds for all 32 teams below. For a full explanation on how we calculate each team's playoff odds, click here.
NFC playoff projections
Favorites
1. Los Angeles Rams (3-1)
Chances of making the playoffs: 68.9 percent
This is the team with by far the biggest disagreement between Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings and the ESPN Football Power Index: DVOA has the Rams third in the league, even if we incorporate preseason projections. FPI has the Rams way down at No. 24.
There are a couple of reasons for this. FPI uses stronger opponent adjustments earlier in the season, penalizing the Rams' wins over the Colts and 49ers. But the bigger issue is that Football Outsiders was already projecting the Rams to be an average team going into the year, rather than expecting them to be one of the league's worst teams. So when Football Outsiders' methods combine the Rams' strong performance so far with the average team we thought they would be, we get the expectation that the Rams will be a good team the rest of the way.
With stronger opponent adjustments for the first four games, the Rams wouldn't come out quite so high in our playoff odds simulation. It might be overstating things to list them with the strongest playoff odds in the entire NFC. But Dallas and Washington aren't exactly cupcakes; the Rams beat one and lost to the other by just a touchdown. Even with full opponent adjustments, our simulation would give the Rams better-than-even odds to make the playoffs. Given what most people thought of them a month ago, that's astonishing.
2. Detroit Lions (3-1)
Chances of making the playoffs: 65.9 percent
Detroit is another team that has been surprisingly strong early on, and what's particularly surprising is how the Lions are doing it. Last year, the Lions were the worst defense in the league by DVOA. This year, they rank fifth through four weeks. They also are No. 1 on special teams.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)
Chances of making the playoffs: 63.3 percent
Although the Eagles are only 12th in DVOA, they get a big advantage with both a one-game lead in the NFC East and head-to-head wins over both the Redskins and Giants. Philadelphia's schedule also gets much easier from here on out. The schedule so far ranks seventh and included three games on the road; the Eagles' remaining schedule ranks 26th and features seven home games and just five road games.
4. Green Bay Packers (3-1)
Chances of making the playoffs: 59.3 percent
When we combine our ratings so far with the preseason forecast, the Packers come out as a stronger team than the Lions. However, the Lions have higher playoff odds because of an easier remaining schedule. Detroit's remaining schedule ranks 22nd and includes six home games; Green Bay's remaining schedule ranks ninth and includes only five home games.
5. Atlanta Falcons (3-1)
Chances of making the playoffs: 58.8 percent
Atlanta has played mostly close games this year, which has the Falcons' DVOA just 13th overall despite the 3-1 record. That's part of the reason their playoff odds are only fifth in the conference; the other issue is that the entire NFC South is currently 2-2 or better, so the Falcons have a lot of possible competition.
Contenders
6. Carolina Panthers (3-1)
Chances of making the playoffs: 48.7 percent
Speaking of the Falcons' possible competition: Carolina is only 16th in DVOA, the worst of the 3-1 teams, mostly because of the really bad Week 3 loss to New Orleans. And since that was the only NFC South game scheduled for September, the loss also puts the Panthers behind in the division race.
7. Seattle Seahawks (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 47.8 percent
It's surprising to see that the Seahawks actually rank better in offensive DVOA (13th) than defensive (14th). As with New England, our preseason forecast makes Seattle's playoff odds higher than they would be if we considered only 2017 performance.
A road win over the Rams this week would do a lot to re-establish the Seahawks as division favorites. In simulations where it beats the Rams, Seattle makes the playoffs 66 percent of the time and wins the division 55 percent of the time. Otherwise, those odds are 34 percent and 19 percent, respectively.
8. Washington Redskins (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 47.4 percent
Washington ranks sixth in the league on defense, and fourth overall, making it the best of the 2-2 teams according to DVOA ratings. And things may be about to get easier for the Redskins. Washington's schedule strength was No. 2 in the league through Week 4, but ranks just 27th from now on. However, that's based on performance this year, which means it considers Seattle and Dallas as weaker opponents than we expected before the season. Whether that proves to be true remains to be seen.
In the running
9. Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 33.1 percent
The Cowboys are by no means out of it, but they've underwhelmed this season, and unlike Philadelphia or Washington, they have a schedule that's about to get harder. Based on average DVOA of opponent, Dallas has the fifth-toughest remaining schedule. A win over Green Bay this week would certainly help get the Cowboys back on track, raising their playoff odds to 43 percent.
10. Minnesota Vikings (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 31.3 percent
The Vikings are another team that got to play three of its first four games at home, and a home loss to Detroit really puts Minnesota behind for division tiebreakers. The Vikings rank fifth in offensive DVOA, which seems absurd given the quarterback situation, and 19th in defensive DVOA, which seems absurd given the quality of the defensive talent on the roster. The Vikings rate better in DVOA than they've looked to the naked eye, in part because the team has recovered only one of eight fumbles in its first four games.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)
Chances of making the playoffs: 29.4 percent
An interesting guide to just how bad the really bad teams are this year: Tampa Bay has an above-average DVOA but ranks 20th. We have 20 positive teams this year and only 12 negative teams. While a Thursday night win over New England would be a huge statement, a home win over an out-of-conference opponent doesn't have that much playoff power. It would only raise Tampa Bay's odds to 38 percent.
12. New Orleans Saints (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 29.4 percent
The Saints are a surprising ninth overall in DVOA, thanks to a defense that has been much better than recent years (20th). Their remaining schedule ranks seventh in the league, but they do get the advantage of seven remaining home games.
Long shots
13. Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 12.2 percent
Arizona ranks 26th in DVOA, which makes the Cardinals the worst of the 2-2 teams, one spot lower than the Jets. Their two wins came in overtime against two teams even worse than they are. And their schedule strength has been 29th through four weeks, but ranks fourth from here on out.
14. Chicago Bears (1-3)
Chances of making the playoffs: 2.5 percent
We don't know what Mitchell Trubisky will do to improve the offense, but he won't help the No. 21 defense or the No. 26 special teams.
15. New York Giants (0-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 1.5 percent
Many people are disappointed that the Giants' offense is struggling after bringing in Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram raised expectations for this season. But the real shock is the decline of the defense, which is just 28th in DVOA after ranking second in the league in 2016.
16. San Francisco 49ers (0-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 0.6 percent
We currently list the 49ers with the second-highest odds of getting the No. 1 pick, 17.1 percent.
AFC playoff projections
Favorites
1. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Chances of making the playoffs: 92.5 percent
Kansas City is the best team of the season so far, by far. Our DVOA ratings have the Chiefs at 43 percent above average with no other team over 30 percent. And it should get even easier for them the rest of the way. Based on average DVOA of opponent, Kansas City's schedule has been one of the 10 hardest but is No. 21 from Week 5 onward. And last year's league-leading special teams are just 19th so far in 2017; that unit is likely to be better in the future.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
Chances of making the playoffs: 89.5 percent
Pittsburgh had our second-highest projection before the season, and is No. 2 in DVOA after four weeks. That may seem like a surprise because the offense is underperforming, but there are a couple of reasons the Steelers are better than you think. First, the defense has been surprisingly good: third in DVOA, trailing only Buffalo and Baltimore. Second, that loss to Chicago involved a lot of problems that are unlikely to plague the Steelers in the long term. They are unlikely to have another game where they recover only one of seven fumbles, and they are unlikely to have another field goal blocked and returned to set up an opponent field goal to essentially switch six points on the scoreboard.
Because their strong preseason forecast makes them the No. 1 team in our DAVE ratings, Pittsburgh gets a slight edge over Kansas City as our Super Bowl favorite right now. We have the Steelers winning the Super Bowl 18.8 percent of the time and Kansas City winning 18.6 percent of the time. No other team in the league comes out above 7.0 percent.
3. Buffalo Bills (3-1)
Chances of making the playoffs: 64.5 percent
The Bills are sitting in first place in the AFC East thanks to a surprising turnaround on defense; Buffalo is currently No. 1 in defensive DVOA after ranking 27th and 24th the past two seasons. It's not like the Bills' defense is mind-blowingly good -- it has the worst rating of any defense in DVOA history that ranked No. 1 after Week 4 -- but it's good enough to make the Bills 3-1 despite an offense that ranks 23rd. Since they have a one-game lead and have banked a division win, they even come out a little ahead of the Patriots in the playoff odds this week.
4. New England Patriots (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 58.7 percent
Another game, another terrible defensive performance for the defending champions. I wrote about their terrible defensive numbers last week. We've added in opponent adjustments now -- but it doesn't help. The Patriots are in last place in defensive DVOA, by leaps and bounds, with the worst rating through four weeks of any team since 2008. On the other hand, the Patriots are No. 2 in offensive DVOA, trailing only Kansas City.
Our preseason forecast, like most of the football commentariat, believes the Patriots are better than they've shown so far. That's why we give them the strongest playoff odds of any 2-2 team; while Buffalo has better playoff odds, the Patriots are ahead of the Bills in the odds to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LII (8.3 percent to 7.1 percent).
5. Denver Broncos (3-1)
Chances of making the playoffs: 47.0 percent
Our DVOA ratings do not believe in this year's Broncos; they rank 14th so far, despite the 3-1 record. The outstanding win against Dallas is balanced by a loss to Buffalo and barely beating the Chargers. With only four AFC teams at 3-1, the Broncos are in the driver's seat for a wild-card berth, but they win the division in only 15 percent of simulations because the Chiefs are so strong. And it doesn't help that the Broncos have seven road games left and only five home games.
The messy AFC South
6. Tennessee Titans (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 46.2 percent
The playoff odds are close enough for the three 2-2 AFC South teams that it makes sense to just think of them as tied. DVOA ratings rank them Houston (7), Jacksonville (8) and then Tennessee (17), but the remaining strength of schedule goes the other way, which is why the Titans have slightly higher chances of seeing the postseason.
The Titans are having the same season as the Patriots so far, to a lesser degree. They rank fourth in offensive DVOA but 31st in defensive DVOA. They also have had terrible luck, with opponents fumbling seven times but Tennessee recovering only one of them.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 45.2 percent
Jacksonville's fumble recovery luck has been the opposite of Tennessee's; the Jaguars have recovered five of seven opponent fumbles and two of their own three. Jacksonville ranks No. 1 in the league in pass defense DVOA, but dead last in run defense DVOA.
9. Houston Texans (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 40.8 percent
The Texans are slightly behind Baltimore in our playoff odds, but the three AFC South teams really belong together because they are grouped so tightly. The division will be partially decided by Andrew Luck's health, which is one of the reasons Houston is behind Tennessee and Jacksonville in the odds. Playing the Colts in Week 9 and Week 17, the Texans are more likely to face Luck twice than the Titans (Weeks 6 and 12) or Jaguars (Weeks 7 and 13).
In the running
8. Baltimore Ravens (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 41.3 percent
The least consistent team in the NFL so far, the Ravens were so dominant on defense in the first two weeks that their defense still ranks second in DVOA despite big losses to Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. The offense is 26th, which seems too high until you realize how many really horrible offenses there have been in the NFL this year.
10. Oakland Raiders (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 25.6 percent
Our simulation penalized the Raiders for Derek Carr's injury by lowering their rating for this week's game against Baltimore and giving him a 20 percent chance to return each week until he's back for Week 10 in all simulations. Nothing is really a "must win" this early in the season, but the Raiders make the playoffs in 38 percent of simulations where they beat the Ravens this week, and only 15 percent of the simulations where they lose this week. No pressure, EJ Manuel.
11. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)
Chances of making the playoffs: 17.0 percent
Everyone was laughing at the Bengals because it took them so long to score a touchdown this year, but close losses to Houston and Green Bay look pretty good given how well the Texans and Packers have played the rest of the season. And while Andy Dalton may struggle when he doesn't get to play Cleveland, the Bengals rank in the DVOA top 10 for both defense and special teams.
Long shots
12. New York Jets (2-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 11.9 percent
Maybe they aren't actually tanking? The Jets may be tied in the standings with the Patriots for now, but their playoff odds are much lower because the Patriots have been the better team this season and, based on what we knew going into the year, the gap between the teams is probably a lot larger than that. Meanwhile, we now give the Jets only a 1.4 percent chance of snagging the No. 1 overall pick.
13. Indianapolis Colts (1-3)
Chances of making the playoffs: 7.3 percent
We're not quite sure how to project the Andrew Luck situation, either; right now, we give the Colts increasing chances of getting him back each week between Week 6 and Week 9. Luck's return will help an offense that's dead last in offensive DVOA through four weeks, but it won't do anything for the No. 26 defense or the No. 19 special teams. Only the lack of a 3-1 team in the AFC South keeps the Colts' playoff odds higher than the next two teams'.
14. Miami Dolphins (1-2)
Chances of making the playoffs: 6.7 percent
Just all-around awful so far: 29th in offensive DVOA, 29th in defensive DVOA and 25th on special teams.
15. Los Angeles Chargers (0-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 4.8 percent
Being the best 0-4 team isn't very useful when you have to share a division with the only 4-0 team. The Chargers are above average in offensive DVOA and average in defensive DVOA, but dead last on special teams. As an added bonus, they've already played three home games but only one road game.
In a (draft) class of their own
16. Cleveland Browns (0-4)
Chances of making the playoffs: 0.1 percent
We now list the Browns with a 49.9 percent chance of picking No. 1 in the 2018 NFL draft: 49.8 percent with their own pick, and 0.1 percent with Houston's pick.
Methodology
The odds listed here come from a weekly Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation that plays out the rest of the season 50,000 times. Based on our ratings and home-field advantage, a random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. Early in the season, these probabilities are based on a combination of Football Outsiders' preseason projections and DVOA. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric which looks at a team's performance on every play and adjusts based on situation and opponent, explained further here.)
Right now, the ratings used in the simulation are 50 percent forecast and 50 percent performance so far. This is the first week we add in opponent adjustments to our 2017 ratings, and those adjustments are currently at 40 percent of their eventual full strength.
You can find the full playoff odds report, including the odds of each team winning each of the six seeds and the Super Bowl, on FootballOutsiders.com. Note that our odds will be different than playoff odds you might find elsewhere on ESPN.com (or at FiveThirtyEight.com) because each set of team ratings is computed differently.