An NFL offseason packed with analysis and conjecture finally ends when the 2016 season kicks off this week. Those seeking one last fix to survive the remaining hours have come to the right place. I've gone through the 32 teams' schedules and declared winners for all 256 games with all the authority of a network calling an election with zero percent of precincts reporting.
The 2009 Detroit Lions will have company if my Cleveland Browns projection comes true. It's not that I'm convinced Cleveland will go 0-16. It's more like, hey, you try finding games they'll win. That's the trouble with picking outcomes game by game. The really good teams will win too many, and the really bad teams will not win enough. But the divisional outcomes matched the expectations I carried into this exercise, and the win totals added up to 256.
Enjoy the season.
AFC East | AFC North| AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
AFC EAST
New England Patriots (12 wins)
Wins: Dolphins, Bills, at Browns, Bengals, at Bills, Seahawks, at 49ers, at Jets, Rams, Ravens, at Broncos, Jets
Losses: at Cardinals, Texans, at Steelers, at Dolphins
Analysis: The Patriots will play NFL's easiest lineup of opposing quarterbacks, according to my 2016 QB Tiers ratings for each projected starter. I have them going 2-2 without Tom Brady and then 10-2 the rest of the way. Tough home games against Cincinnati, Seattle and Denver could prevent that from happening.
Buffalo Bills (9 wins)
Wins: at Ravens, Jets, Cardinals, 49ers, Jaguars, at Raiders, Steelers, Browns, Dolphins
Losses: at Patriots, at Rams, at Dolphins, Patriots, at Seahawks, at Bengals, at Jets
Analysis: The Bills could be an underrated team if Tyrod Taylor builds upon a promising first season as their starting quarterback. I nearly included Buffalo on my list of underrated teams after speaking with a team analytics director who saw the Bills in that vein, but it wasn't clear enough to me Taylor could stay healthy.
New York Jets (8 wins)
Wins: at Cardinals, Ravens, at Browns, Rams, Colts, at 49ers, Dolphins, Bills
Losses: Bengals, at Bills, at Chiefs, Seahawks, at Steelers, at Dolphins, Patriots, at Patriots
Analysis: This projection includes an upset victory at Arizona for Jets coach Todd Bowles, the Cardinals' former defensive coordinator. But I've got the Jets going only 5-3 at home thanks to tough matchups against the Bengals, Seahawks and Patriots.
Miami Dolphins (7 wins)
Wins: Browns, Titans, Bills, Jets, at Rams, 49ers, Patriots
Losses: at Seahawks, at Patriots, at Bengals, Steelers, at Chargers, at Ravens, Cardinals, at Jets, at Bills
Analysis: I'm expecting the Dolphins to play without fear and with more of an edge under coach Adam Gase, which could lead to an upset or two. Drawing the Patriots at home in Week 17 seems like a good deal. We've seen New England rest starters at that point.
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals (12 wins)
Wins: at Jets, Broncos, Dolphins, at Cowboys, Browns, Redskins, at Giants, Bills, Eagles, at Browns, Steelers, Ravens
Losses: at Steelers, at Patriots, at Ravens, at Texans
Analysis: The Bengals were looking like the team to beat in the AFC last season until Andy Dalton's thumb injury derailed them. Facing the Jets, Steelers, Broncos and Patriots in the first six weeks will put Cincy to the test early.
Pittsburgh Steelers (11 wins)
Wins: Bengals, at Eagles, Chiefs, Jets, at Dolphins, Patriots, Cowboys, at Browns, Giants, Ravens, Browns
Losses: at Redskins, at Ravens, at Colts, at Bills, at Bengals
Analysis: The Steelers go 8-0 at home under this projection, something they haven't accomplished since Ben Roethlisberger was a rookie in 2004. Beating Washington on the road in Week 1 without star RB Le'Veon Bell would expand their margin for error at home.
Baltimore Ravens (8 wins)
Wins: at Browns, Raiders, Redskins, Steelers, Browns, Bengals, Dolphins, Eagles
Losses: Bills, at Jaguars, at Giants, at Jets, at Cowboys, at Patriots, at Steelers, at Bengals
Analysis: The Ravens are 4-2 against the Steelers over the past three seasons and beat them twice during an otherwise disastrous 2015 season, including once when Ben Roethlisberger was starting for Pittsburgh. Some in the league think we've seen the best from Joe Flacco and that it's downhill from here. With a strong showing at home, they can reach the .500 mark.
Cleveland Browns (0 wins)
Wins: None
Losses: at Eagles, Ravens, at Dolphins, at Redskins, Patriots, at Titans, at Bengals, Jets, Cowboys, at Ravens, Steelers, Giants, Bengals, at Bills, Chargers, Steelers
Analysis: It's unlikely the Browns will actually finish 0-16. I just had a hard time picking which games they would win. When all 14 of a team's rookie draft choices stick on the initial 53-man roster, it says more about the roster and long-range outlook than it says about a draft class whose quality cannot be known this early. The Browns are building as though 2016 is an inconvenience.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans (10 wins)
Wins: Bears, at Patriots, Titans, at Vikings, Colts, Lions, at Jaguars, Chargers, Jaguars, Bengals
Losses: Chiefs, at Broncos, at Raiders, at Packers, at Colts, at Titans
Analysis: Brock Osweiler isn't the driving force behind my relative Texans optimism. It's a combination of Bill O'Brien, offensive weaponry and the increasing likelihood Houston could final get meaningful production from Jadeveon Clowney. O'Brien getting a chance to scheme the Patriots minus Tom Brady is a bonus.
Indianapolis Colts (8 wins)
Wins: Lions, Chargers, Bears, at Titans, Titans, Steelers, Texans, Jaguars
Losses: at Broncos, at Jaguars, at Texans, at Packers, at Jets, at Vikings, at Raiders, Chiefs
Analysis: I have the Colts going 7-1 at home, which they last did when Andrew Luck was a rookie in 2012 (the team last went unbeaten at home during its 2006 Super Bowl season). I don't feel great about the Colts, but I do think Luck returns to previous form.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5 wins)
Wins: Ravens, Colts, Raiders, Vikings, Titans
Losses: Packers, at Chargers, at Bears, at Titans, at Chiefs, Texans, at Lions, at Bills, Broncos, at Texans, at Colts
Analysis: If the Jaguars take the next step, they'll win road games against teams such as the Chargers, Bears and Titans. I'm not convinced they'll have the quarterback advantages in those games, but the team's optimism over Blake Bortles seems genuine. This needs to be the year he and the Jaguars win a few meaningful games.
Tennessee Titans (5 wins)
Wins: Vikings, Raiders, Browns, Jaguars, Texans
Losses: at Lions, at Texans, at Dolphins, Colts, at Chargers, Packers, at Colts, at Bears, Broncos, at Chiefs, at Jaguars
Analysis: The Titans play enough road games against questionable opponents -- Miami, San Diego, Indy, Chicago and Jacksonville -- to beat my 0-8 projection for them away from Nissan Stadium. I do have them flipping their home record from 1-7 last season to 5-3 in 2016.
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs (11 wins)
Wins: Chargers, at Texans, Jets, Saints, Jaguars, Buccaneers, at Falcons, Raiders, Titans, Broncos
Losses: at Steelers, at Raiders, at Panthers, at Broncos, at Chargers
Analysis: Most of the teams visiting Kansas City this season have quarterbacks willing to take chances with the football: Philip Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston and possibly even Drew Brees, whose road splits have been suspect of late. That sets up well for the Chiefs and explains why I have them going unbeaten at home.
Denver Broncos (10 wins)
Wins: Colts, at Buccaneers, Falcons, at Chargers, Texans, Chargers, Chiefs, at Jaguars, at Titans, Raiders
Losses: Panthers, at Bengals, at Raiders, at Saints, Patriots, at Chiefs
Analysis: Gary Kubiak has the defense and commitment to the ground that he'll need to navigate a tough schedule with an unproven quarterback. Drawing the Patriots before Tom Brady's return would have helped shift the odds.
San Diego Chargers (7 wins)
Wins: Jaguars, Saints, Titans, Dolphins, Raiders, at Browns, Chiefs
Losses: at Chiefs, at Colts, at Raiders, Broncos, at Falcons, at Broncos, at Texans, Buccaneers, at Panthers
Analysis: Football people see the Chargers as a smaller team with questionable depth, which could make it tougher for San Diego to factor late in the season.
Oakland Raiders (6 wins)
Wins: Falcons, Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos, Texans, Colts
Losses: at Saints, at Titans, at Ravens, at Jaguars, at Buccaneers, Panthers, Bills, at Chiefs, at Chargers, at Broncos
Analysis: I'm probably too bearish on the Raiders and Jaguars, two upstart teams heading in the right direction. It's not hard to envision Oakland picking up road victories over the Titans, Ravens, Jaguars and/or Buccaneers. Seeing will be believing for me.
NFC EAST
Washington Redskins (9 wins)
Wins: Steelers, Cowboys, at Giants, Browns, Eagles, Vikings, Packers, at Bears, Giants
Losses: at Ravens, at Lions, at Bengals, at Cowboys, at Cardinals, at Eagles, Panthers
Analysis: Games against the Eagles, Vikings and Cowboys stand out as volatile based on those teams' quarterback situations. Drawing home games against Carolina, Pittsburgh and Green Bay could put pressure on Washington to win on the road.
New York Giants (7 wins)
Wins: at Cowboys, Saints, Ravens, Eagles, Bears, at Browns, Cowboys
Losses: Redskins, at Vikings, at Packers, at Rams, Bengals, at Steelers, Lions, at Eagles, at Redskins
Analysis: Teams spending heavily in free agency typically do not get great value. That's how I see the Giants this season -- better on defense, but not good enough. The opener at Dallas was a tough one to pick. I ultimately bought the thinking that a veteran QB could give the Giants an advantage over rookie Dak Prescott.
Dallas Cowboys (7 wins)
Wins: Bears, at 49ers, Eagles, at Browns, Ravens, Redskins, Buccaneers
Losses: Giants, at Redskins, Bengals, at Packers, at Steelers, at Vikings, at Giants, Lions, at Eagles
Analysis: The Cowboys had to know they were going to see Dak Prescott in the lineup at some point this season. They could not have known they'd feel so good about it. The league needs an influx of quarterback talent. Prescott seems to have the poise and talent to succeed.
Philadelphia Eagles (6 wins)
Wins: Browns, Vikings, Falcons, Redskins, Giants, Cowboys
Losses: at Bears, Steelers, at Lions, at Redskins, at Cowboys, at Giants, at Seahawks, Packers, at Bengals, at Ravens
Analysis: The Eagles' front-line players are talented and plentiful, but with a rookie quarterback and questionable depth, the glass was half-empty for me.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers (12 wins)
Wins: at Jaguars, Lions, Giants, Cowboys, Bears, at Falcons, Colts, at Titans, at Eagles, Texans, at Bears, Vikings
Losses: at Vikings, at Redskins, Seahawks, at Lions
Analysis: The Packers went 0-3 at home against the NFC North last season. I have them reversing that record this season, but that could be optimistic. Subtracting Josh Sitton from the offensive line was a curious move that could knock the Packers down a notch.
Detroit Lions (11 wins)
Wins: Titans, at Bears, Eagles, Rams, Redskins, Jaguars, Vikings, Bears, at Giants, at Cowboys, Packers
Losses: at Colts, at Packers, at Texans, at Vikings, at Saints
Analysis: The Lions went 7-1 at home just two seasons ago. I have them 8-0 at home in this run through the schedule. That's optimistic, as is my 11-5 projection overall. I liked what I saw from offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter late last season. The NFC North faces an easier looking schedule this season, another reason I see the glass more than half-full for Detroit.
Minnesota Vikings (8 wins)
Wins: Packers, Giants, at Bears, Lions, Cardinals, Cowboys, Colts, Bears
Losses: at Titans, at Panthers, Texans, at Eagles, at Redskins, at Lions, at Jaguars, at Packers
Analysis: The Vikings' formula for winning -- play good defense, lean on Adrian Peterson and don't ask too much from the quarterback -- should not change much with Sam Bradford as the starter. But until Bradford shows he can play as well situationally as Teddy Bridgewater, it's tough to bank on Minnesota staying on its previous trajectory.
Chicago Bears (4 wins)
Wins: Eagles, Jaguars, Titans, 49ers
Losses: at Texans, at Cowboys, Lions, at Colts, at Packers, Vikings, at Buccaneers, at Giants, at Lions, Packers, Redskins, at Vikings
Analysis: Last season marked only the second time in 15 seasons that a John Fox-coached team finished worse than 7-9. Our Aaron Schatz recently declared the Bears to be owners of the NFL's easiest schedule for 2016, which could mean I'm vastly underrating where Chicago will finish. Give Chicago a 3-3 mark in the NFC North, and my 4-12 projection jumps to 7-9. That would be no shock.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina Panthers (12 wins)
Wins: at Denver, 49ers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Cardinals, at Rams, Chiefs, Saints, at Raiders, Chargers, at Redskins, Falcons
Losses: at Falcons, at Saints, at Seahawks, at Buccaneers
Analysis: I have the Panthers winning four of their five games against playoff teams from last season, starting with the opener at Denver. That could be optimistic, but I sprinkled in a few road defeats against an improved NFC South.
New Orleans Saints (8 wins)
Wins: Raiders, Falcons, Panthers, at 49ers, Broncos, Rams, Lions, Buccaneers
Losses: at Giants, at Chargers, at Chiefs, Seahawks, at Panthers, at Buccaneers, at Cardinals, at Falcons
Analysis: There has been no statistical drop-off for Drew Brees despite the general feeling among evaluators that he has declined. I don't see the Saints making a big enough jump defensively for New Orleans to factor in the playoffs, but getting to .500 seems realistic.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7 wins)
Wins: Rams, Raiders, Falcons, Bears, at Chargers, Saints, Panthers
Losses: at Falcons, at Cardinals, Broncos, at Panthers, at 49ers, at Chiefs, Seahawks, at Cowboys, at Saints
Analysis: The Buccaneers split with their NFC South rivals and win at San Diego under this projection. Winning non-division road games against the 49ers and Cowboys would push them over .500 for the first time since 2010.
Atlanta Falcons (6 wins)
Wins: Buccaneers, Panthers, Chargers, Cardinals, 49ers, Saints
Losses: at Raiders, at Saints, at Broncos, at Seahawks, Packers, at Buccaneers, at Eagles, Chiefs, at Rams, at Panthers
Analysis: The Falcons appear improved from last season, especially along their offensive line, but I have them slipping backward even with a home victory over Carolina and a 3-3 record within the division. Sliding home losses against Green Bay and Kansas City into the win column would help.
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks (13 wins)
Wins: Dolphins, at Rams, 49ers, at Jets, Falcons, at Saints, Bills, Eagles, at Buccaneers, Panthers, at Packers, Cardinals, at 49ers
Losses: at Cardinals, at Patriots, Rams
Analysis: ESPN's Vegas power rankings had Seattle as the No. 1 team. My 13-win projection agrees with that thinking, although the Seahawks need to start faster than they did last season. I've wondered whether Pete Carroll's emphasis on finishing strong has sometimes come at the expense of starting fast. Carolina (home) and Green Bay (road) look like swing games.
Arizona Cardinals (10 wins)
Wins: Patriots, Buccaneers, Rams, at 49ers, Seahawks, 49ers, Redskins, at Dolphins, Saints, at Rams
Losses: at Bills, Jets, at Panthers, at Vikings, at Falcons, at Seahawks
Analysis: The Bruce Arians-era Cardinals are strangely 2-1 against the Seahawks on the road and 0-3 against them at home. Those three home defeats were by a 105-34 margin. I've got Arizona splitting the series along more conventional lines this season, but the history is worth considering.
Los Angeles Rams (5 wins)
Wins: Bills, Giants, Falcons, at Seahawks, 49ers
Losses: at 49ers, Seahawks, at Buccaneers, at Cardinals, at Lions, Panthers, at Jets, Dolphins, at Saints, at Patriots, Cardinals
Analysis: The Rams under Jeff Fisher have almost always given the Seahawks problems, which is why I have them winning at Seattle late in the season. I gave Seattle the edge in the Rams' home opener because I'm not sure Los Angeles will have its run defense figured out by then. Overall, the Rams look like a team that has lost depth on defense, which could complicate their efforts to win with questionable quarterback play.
San Francisco 49ers (2 wins)
Wins: Rams, Buccaneers
Losses: at Panthers, at Seahawks, Cowboys, Cardinals, at Bills, Saints, at Cardinals, Patriots, at Dolphins, at Bears, Jets, at Falcons, at Rams, Seahawks
Analysis: This seems like an overly harsh assessment unless you're a fan of the Rams and Buccaneers, but when oddsmakers released point spreads back in June, the 49ers were favored zero times all season. There is some promising young talent in San Francisco, at least. I'll be curious to see whether Carlos Hyde fits into Chip Kelly's offense as well as advertised.