Schedule strength means a lot when it comes to deciding who gets a postseason berth in the NFL. An easy schedule didn't hand the Carolina Panthers a playoff spot, but it was a big reason they went 15-1 last year. An easy schedule kept the New York Jets in playoff contention until the end of the season, and it helped propel the Washington Redskins to a surprise NFC East crown. So it's important to know which teams are going to get a schedule boost in 2016.
We've crunched the numbers using our projections of Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings, which account for general statistical trends and specific personnel changes. The numbers here come from an updated set of projections that account for preseason injuries and suspensions. For major injuries that don't have a definite timetable, we assumed Tony Romo would be back by Week 12 with a 50 percent chance of returning between Week 8 and Week 11, and we assumed Justin Houston would return to the Kansas City Chiefs sometime between Week 7 and Week 10.
Of course, the strongest projected schedule for 2016 is only about half as strong as the hardest schedule from 2015, because our team projections are naturally conservative. Going into a new season, no team is guaranteed to be as good as last year's best team or as bad as last year's worst team.
Here are all 32 teams ranked in order from the hardest projected schedule to the easiest. You can read the full file or skip directly to your team using the links below.
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAC | KC | LA | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SD | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WAS
1. San Francisco 49ers
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 4.5 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 1-3 (Rams, at Panthers, at Seahawks)
This is what happens when you play in a division with the two of the best teams in the NFL. In fact, Seattle and Arizona are the two best teams going into 2016, according to our projections, and the Rams are about average. It doesn't help that the two teams the 49ers play by virtue of finishing last in 2015, Dallas and Chicago, are both expected to improve this season. At least the 49ers' game against the Cowboys comes in Week 4, long before Tony Romo has any hope of returning.
2. New York Jets
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 4.2 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 3-6 (at Chiefs, Seahawks, at Steelers, at Cardinals)
No team's schedule changes from 2015 to 2016 more than the Jets, who ranked 29th in schedule strength a year ago. Things are tougher for every team in the AFC East, as the entire division swaps the AFC South and NFC East for the much tougher AFC North and NFC West in interdivisional play. But the Jets get it worst of all because they are the only one of New England's three division rivals that don't get a chance to face the Patriots during Tom Brady's suspension. In addition, finishing second last season earned the Jets games with the teams we believe will be toughest to play against this year in both the AFC West (Chiefs) and AFC South (Colts). The Jets' first seven opponents are all projected to be above-average teams this year, and none of those teams are the Patriots. The Jets don't play them until Week 12.
3. Miami Dolphins
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 3.7 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 13-15 (at Ravens, Cardinals, at Jets)
Miami gets that same tough AFC East schedule, and it's back-loaded. The Dolphins play three of their last five games on the road, and the two home games are against Arizona and New England. However, their schedule is evenly spaced, as none of their four hardest games come back-to-back. Starting the season with trips to Seattle and New England would be tougher without Brady's suspension.
4. Los Angeles Rams
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 3.3 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 12-15 (at New Orleans, at New England, Atlanta, at Seattle on short rest)
The Rams don't have a particularly tough three-game stretch because things are spaced out. They end the season in Weeks 13-17 with games at New England, at Seattle (on a short week!), and against Arizona at home, but in between they get to face Atlanta at home in Week 14 and San Francisco at home in Week 16. The Rams also get only seven games at their new Los Angeles home this season, and they'll have to fly from Detroit in Week 6 to London to face the Giants in Week 7.
5. Atlanta Falcons
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 2.7 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 4-6 (Panthers on short rest, at Broncos, at Seahawks)
Like the AFC East, the teams of the NFC South last year got to play against the two weakest divisions in football, the AFC South and NFC East. This year, these teams instead play against the AFC West and NFC West. That's a much tougher schedule without even considering the issue of longer travel. Last year, the NFC South teams had the schedules ranked 24th, 30th, 31st and 32nd, according to the average DVOA of opponent. (Atlanta ranked 30th). This year, three teams from the NFC South rank among the eight toughest schedules, and Carolina's schedule ranked lower (13th) only because the Panthers don't have to play themselves.
6. Cleveland Browns
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 2.2 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 9-11 (Cowboys, at Ravens on short rest, Steelers)
The entire AFC North gets an easier schedule than a year ago, swapping out the two west divisions for the two east divisions. But the Browns still have to play the other three teams in their own division, and all three will be playoff contenders this year. So they've only dropped from the No. 1 toughest schedule in the league to No. 6. Six of their final nine games are at home, but they don't play the Steelers until Week 11. And in Week 5, they get to be the first team on Tom Brady's "12 Games of Revenge" tour.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 2.0 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Week 11-13 (at Chiefs, Seahawks, at Chargers)
Tampa's schedule ranked 31st a year ago; as noted above in the section on Atlanta, the whole NFC South has it tougher this year. The Bucs get three home games in a row from Week 8 to Week 10, but their seven games to end the season include four road games and home games against the Seahawks and Panthers.
8. New Orleans Saints
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 2.0 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 6-8 (Broncos, at Panthers on short rest, Rams)
The Bucs and Saints have schedules of similar difficulty, but the Saints have it more spread out while Tampa's tougher games are mostly at the end of the season. The Bucs and Saints also play each other twice in a three-week span in December. Home games against the Broncos and Rams in November will present a fascinating look at what happens when resistible forces (the Denver and Los Angeles passing games) meet a moveable object (the Saints secondary). Considering the quality of both Drew Brees and the Broncos and Rams defenses, we'll also get to see the opposite.
9. Denver Broncos
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 1.4 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 15-17 (Patriots, at Chiefs, Raiders)
Denver's schedule is spaced out well. The Broncos have three sets of back-to-back road games, but two of those sets feature a non-Carolina NFC South team and the third features two AFC South teams. The Broncos do have both of their games against Kansas City in the final six games of the season, and Justin Houston should be back healthy by that point.
10. Buffalo Bills
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 1.4 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 7-9 (at Dolphins, Patriots, at Seahawks)
Buffalo's schedule is remarkable for how ridiculously front-loaded it is. The Bills' average opponent in Weeks 1-9 has 5.4-percent projected DVOA; only the Jets have a tougher schedule during that span. The Bills play five of those nine games on the road, and they have the Patriots (at home) and Seattle (on the road) back-to-back right before their Week 10 bye. But then, after the bye week, the Bills' average opponent has minus-3.7 percent DVOA, ranked 30th overall from Week 10-17. Plus, the Bills play four of their last seven games at home, including three straight in the freezing December cold of Buffalo.
11. Oakland Raiders
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 0.8 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 14-17 (at Chiefs on short rest, at Chargers, Colts, at Broncos)
The Raiders come back from their Week 10 bye with three straight home games before they play three of their last four on the road -- against each of their three AFC West rivals. They will have played all three of their non-Carolina NFC South games by Week 8. They also lose a home game to play in Mexico City against Houston.
12. Seattle Seahawks
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 0.5 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 7-10 (at Cardinals, at Saints, Bills, at Patriots on short rest)
Here's another schedule that gets tougher once we hit November. Two of Seattle's first three games look like easy victories at home against Miami and San Francisco, but there are trips to both New England and Green Bay after midseason.
13. Carolina Panthers
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 0.5 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 12-14 (at Raiders, at Seahawks, Chargers)
The Panthers had the easiest schedule in the league a year ago. This year, their schedule is a lot closer to average. Four of their last six games are on the road, although our projections don't think too highly of their final three opponents (at Washington, home vs. Atlanta, and then at Tampa Bay).
14. New England Patriots
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 0.3 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 6-8 (Bengals, at Steelers, at Bills)
The Patriots' schedule is really evenly spaced out. They get at least two weeks between games against this year's four toughest opponents. The toughest opponent on the second half of the schedule is Seattle, but they get the Seahawks at home after a bye week. In addition to the difficult slate highlighted above, neurotic Patriots fans will also point to a Week 14-15 stretch when they'll face the Ravens at home on Monday night before traveling to Denver on short rest.
15. Washington Redskins
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 0.1 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 11-14 (Packers, at Cowboys on short rest, at Cardinals)
Did the NFL get some kind of group rate on flights from Detroit to London? Just like the Rams, Washington plays in Detroit and then in London in back-to-back weeks, Weeks 7-8. The difference is that Washington still gets to play eight games at home; Cincinnati is the "home team" for that Week 8 game. Washington also has to play three straight on the road from Week 12 to Week 14, but our research shows three straight games on the road are no different from any other three games on the road.
16. Philadelphia Eagles
Average projected DVOA of opponents: 0.0 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 11-13 (at Seahawks, Packers, at Bengals on short rest)
The Eagles have the most average schedule in the league this year. It's heavily back-loaded in terms of opponent quality, although that's balanced by the fact that four of their final six games are at home. That includes getting all three NFC East rivals at home in Weeks 14, 16 and 17. The Eagles also benefit from getting to play Pittsburgh at home and without Le'Veon Bell.
17. Arizona Cardinals
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-0.1 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 15-17 (Saints, at Seahawks on short rest, at Rams)
As noted several times this offseason, the Cardinals get a huge advantage hosting the Patriots during Tom Brady's suspension while the Seahawks must travel to New England after Brady's return. Arizona's schedule is generally split into two months of mostly harder opponents at home followed by two months of mostly easier opponents on the road. They don't really have a tough three-game stretch based on what we know about teams right now, although that could change down the road. But the final two games of the season are certainly the hardest two-game stretch.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-0.6 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 9-12 (at Chiefs, Texans, at Lions, at Bills)
Most of the AFC South ends up with an average schedule this year, with the difficulty of playing the AFC West and NFC North balanced by the ease of playing each other. The Jaguars have five of seven games on the road after their Week 5 bye. But they get most of their tough out-of-division opponents at home: The Jags will host Green Bay, Minnesota and Baltimore, and travel to Chicago, Detroit and Buffalo.
19. Houston Texans
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-0.9 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 11-14 (at Raiders, Chargers on short rest, at Packers, at Colts)
Finishing first in the AFC South would have normally made things much harder for the Texans because it meant a trip to New England instead of a game against a lesser AFC East club. However, the Texans got the serendipity of being scheduled to visit Foxborough during Tom Brady's suspension. They also get the Chiefs in Week 2 without Justin Houston. Later on, after their Week 9 bye, the Texans have four road games in five weeks, although that includes a game in Mexico City where neither Houston nor Oakland will have home-field advantage.
20. Indianapolis Colts
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-1.0 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 12-15 (Steelers on short rest, at Jets, Texans on short rest, at Vikings)
The Colts are another team in which no stretch of consecutive games really stands out as too difficult. Their back-to-back games against Kansas City (at home Week 8) and Green Bay (on the road Week 9) are bookended by two games against Tennessee plus their Week 10 bye. And when the Colts play on short rest twice near the end of the season, they are at home both times, playing Pittsburgh on a Thursday night and then playing Houston six days after traveling to MetLife Stadium to play the Jets on Monday Night Football.
21. Minnesota Vikings
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-1.1 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 11-13 (Cardinals, at Lions on short rest, Cowboys)
The NFL actually has Minnesota and Dallas playing consecutive Thursdays in Weeks 12-13, with both teams playing on Thanksgiving and then playing each other the following week. Minnesota's travel is evenly spaced out this year, with two home games in a row just once (Giants and Texans Weeks 4-5) and two road games in a row just once (Eagles and Bears Weeks 7-8).
22. Kansas City Chiefs
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-1.1 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 10-13 (at Panthers, Buccaneers, at Broncos, at Falcons)
Kansas City's schedule strength drops from 14th last year to a projected 22nd this year, plus they get the benefit of all eight home games after they gave one up to travel to London a year ago. (They did win that game, so in the end the travel to London didn't cost them.) The Chiefs don't play two straight games against teams whose mean FO projections for 2016 are above-average until the final two weeks of the season (home against Denver and then on the road against San Diego). They also get three straight home games in December before that final trip to San Diego, and they don't play the Broncos until Week 12. By that point, Justin Houston should be healthy, and the quarterback he's sacking will probably be Paxton Lynch instead of Trevor Siemian.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-1.2 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 12-15 (at Colts on short rest, Giants, at Bills, at Bengals)
As noted earlier, the entire AFC North gets an easier schedule than a year ago, swapping out the two West divisions for the two East divisions. Pittsburgh's schedule strength was seventh last year, and is projected to be 23rd this year. Their average opponent also gets much easier in the second half of the year, but that's solely because the second half of the year includes two games with Cleveland. The Steelers end the year with three straight divisional games: at Cincinnati, then at home against the Ravens and Browns.
24. Cincinnati Bengals
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-1.3 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 10-12 (at Giants, Bills on short rest, at Ravens)
The Bengals get a gift of timing: They are the only AFC North team to face the Steelers during Le'Veon Bell's suspension, and they also travel to Dallas in Week 5 when Tony Romo is certain to still be on the sidelines. On the other hand, the Bengals will lose a home game when they play Washington in London on Oct. 30.
25. Baltimore Ravens
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-1.5 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 14-17 (at Patriots, Eagles on short rest, at Steelers, at Bengals)
The Ravens are the AFC North team with the biggest schedule change from last year, when they ranked sixth in schedule strength. They don't play two teams in a row with an above-average mean DVOA projection until the last two weeks of the season. But wow, those last four games are killer. The Ravens actually don't play either Pittsburgh or Cincinnati until after their Week 8 bye. Then they get both teams at home during a stretch of four home games in five weeks, and then both teams on the road during that final four-game slate that also features a trip to Foxborough.
26. New York Giants
Average rojected DVOA of opponents: minus-2.1 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 4-7 (at Vikings, at Packers on short rest, Ravens, at Rams)
Last year, the Giants' schedule ranked 26th by average DVOA of opponent, so there's not a lot of change here. The Giants get a lot of streaks on the road or at home. They play two straight road games three different times, along with a stretch of two home games (Weeks 2-3) and three home games (Weeks 9-11).
27. San Diego Chargers
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-2.5 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 12-14 (at Texans, Buccaneers, at Panthers)
Things are a lot easier this year for San Diego, which had the No. 5 hardest schedule last year, according to average DVOA of opponent. Some of that is because the entire AFC West gets to play the two South divisions this year. Some of it is because our projections expect the Broncos to fall off significantly this year. The Chargers also get a leg up on the rest of their division because Cleveland appears to be a much weaker opponent than the rest of the AFC North, and Miami appears to be a much weaker opponent than the rest of the AFC East. At no point this year does San Diego get two straight games against teams that DVOA projects to be above average.
28. Detroit Lions
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-2.8 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 15-17 (at Giants, at Cowboys, Packers on short rest)
Life gets much easier for the entire NFC North this season, as the entire division gets to play against AFC South and NFC East teams in divisional play. Last year, all four NFC North teams had above-average schedules. This year, all four have below-average projected schedules, with Detroit, Green Bay, and Chicago in the bottom five. Green Bay is the only one of Detroit's opponents this year that ranks in the top 12 of our preseason projections.
29. Tennessee Titans
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-3.2 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 9-11 (at Chargers, Packers, at Colts)
Tennessee's schedule is fairly back-loaded. The Titans play at home only three times in their last eight games, and most of their top opponents come in November or December, including Green Bay and three AFC West teams.
30. Dallas Cowboys
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-3.3 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 10-12 (at Steelers, Ravens, Redskins on Thanksgiving)
Schedule is a big reason why the Cowboys still have a good shot at winning the NFC East despite the injury to Tony Romo. None of the other teams in the division are projected to be better than average, plus finishing in last place a year ago earned Dallas a game against San Francisco while the rest of the division has to play much tougher NFC West teams. The Cowboys' schedule also starts much easier than it finishes, which could enable Dak Prescott to keep the team in contention until Romo is healthy. The Cowboys' average opponent in the first eight games has a projected DVOA of minus-6.5 percent, giving Dallas the easiest first eight games in the league. That stretch ends with a game in Cleveland on Nov. 6. Their last eight opponents, starting in Pittsburgh the following week, are projected to be exactly average.
31. Green Bay Packers
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-3.3 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 14-17 (Seahawks, at Bears, Vikings on short rest, at Lions)
Green Bay's schedule strength has gone from ninth in 2015 to a projected 31st. The entire NFC North gets to play against the AFC South and NFC East in divisional play, but Chicago and Green Bay also get the benefit of drawing Dallas in the first half of the season instead of in the second half when the Cowboys will theoretically have Romo back. Green Bay's toughest opponent is Seattle, but that game is at home and the Packers play Houston and Chicago on either side of it. The Packers get a three-game stretch of home games (Weeks 5-7) and then one of road games (Weeks 10-12).
32. Chicago Bears
Average projected DVOA of opponents: minus-3.5 percent
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 7-11 (at Packers on short rest, Vikings, bye week, at Buccaneers, at Giants)
Chicago has all the advantages that Green Bay gets, plus the advantage of playing San Francisco instead of one of the much harder NFC West teams. That's why the Bears have gone from the fourth-toughest schedule in the NFL last year to the projected easiest schedule of 2016. And if they can somehow make it through 10 games in playoff contention, the Bears get four of their final six games at home.