As the 2016 season nears, we're asking our NFL Insiders to make some predictions. On Monday, we touched on 2016 award winners. We devoted Tuesday to the rookies.
For today, let's dive into all things overrated and underrated: the players we should be talking more about, the teams who are getting too much hype and much more.
Who's the best offensive player no one is talking about?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks. Baldwin caught 14 touchdowns in 2015. And he took over the league during the second half of the season. That doesn't happen by mistake.
John Clayton, senior NFL writer: Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints. Remember: Cooks plays in an offense that can gain 5,000 yards through the air. He will easily exceed his 1,138 receiving yards from last season.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Terron Armstead, LT, Saints. Armstead is one of the more talented left tackles, but ESPN had him as only the 21st-rated offensive lineman in its recent #NFLRank project. Armstead did not crack the top 100 overall. He's better than that already and should emerge as a top-tier left tackle (health permitting) in 2016.
Aaron Schatz, editor-in-chief of Football Outsiders: Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks. Baldwin led all wide receivers with at least 50 targets last season in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (value per play) and was second (behind Antonio Brown) in DYAR (total value). He also led all receivers by catching 76 percent of intended passes. This was not a one-year fluke; Baldwin ranked second among receivers in DVOA in 2013.
Field Yates, NFL Insider: Golden Tate, WR, Lions. Exceptional at the point of catch and tough as nails, Tate is so fun to watch. There's going to be a ton of work coming his way this season with Calvin Johnson no longer in Detroit.
Who's the best defensive player no one's talking about?
Bowen: Darius Slay, CB, Lions. Slay is a legit top-tier cornerback in the league. He has length, smooth footwork and the ability to play the ball in the air.
Clayton: Jamie Collins, LB, Patriots. He's one of the best coverage linebackers in football and stands to get a monster contract from the Patriots.
Sando: Cliff Avril, DE, Seahawks. Avril is quieter than high-profile defensive teammates. Is he less valuable? Tom Brady went from floundering to lighting up the scoreboard once an injury forced Avril from the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. That was not coincidental.
Schatz: Mark Barron, LB, Rams. Like Deone Bucannon of the Cardinals, Barron is a nominal safety who actually plays linebacker, but he has gotten a lot less hype in the recent deluge of articles about the rise of hybrid players. But the move to linebacker arguably fit him even better than Bucannon, because Barron never lived up to his potential as a defensive back. Last season, he had 35 defeats (combining tackles for loss, turnovers and plays to stop conversions on third or fourth down). That tied Lavonte David for second in the league behind J.J. Watt.
Yates: Everson Griffen, DE, Vikings. A foundation piece of the Minnesota defense, Griffen is an outstanding rusher who can dominate off the edge. He is physical and explosive, and he can close quickly on quarterbacks.
Who's the offensive player who won't live up to the hype?
Bowen: Coby Fleener, TE, Saints. Fleener looks like a fit for Sean Payton's offense, but I question whether he can really produce monster numbers, given his inconsistent tape with the Colts.
Clayton: Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills. Watkins was supposed to be the best from the great receiver class of 2014, but he has been fighting injuries over the past two years. He has yet to eclipse 65 catches in a season. He has the talent to haul in 80-plus receptions, but we haven't seen it yet.
Sando: Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars. The hype for Bortles, and even Derek Carr, has gotten a little out of hand. These are promising young players, not guaranteed stars. They were 28th (Carr) and 29th (Bortles) out of 29 qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR over the second half of last season. Let's not anoint just yet.
Schatz: Arian Foster, RB, Dolphins. Foster is now 30, and he hasn't played a full season in three years. The Dolphins would be better off seeing whether or not Jay Ajayi can be a starting running back.
Yates: Coby Fleener, TE, Saints. He has all the physical tools, and the offense in New Orleans has been prolific for tight ends. He needs to put it all together after an underwhelming tenure in Indianapolis.
Who's the defensive player who won't live up to the hype?
Bowen: Janoris Jenkins, CB, Giants: Jenkins is a playmaker, an aggressive cornerback who won't hesitate to break on the ball. But the Giants also paid a hefty premium (five years, $62.5 million) for a defensive back who sits on routes and takes too many risks in coverage.
Clayton: Damon Harrison, DT, Giants. "Snacks" is a great run-stopper, but he needs to show some presence on passing downs to justify being paid about $9 million a year.
Sando: Josh Norman, CB, Redskins. Norman has made himself into a very good corner, but the defensive infrastructure he enjoyed in Carolina did not follow him to Washington. Norman will have to be the NFL's best corner to live up to his contract.
Schatz: Malik Jackson, DT Jaguars. Jackson certainly can be a very good interior pass-rusher. He was a useful player for Denver last season. And the Jaguars had cap room to spend this offseason. But the problem with Jackson's $14.25 million-per-year contract is that he has to be one of the top two or three defensive tackles in the league every season to be worth the money. That's a tough task for a guy who only has 14 sacks in four NFL seasons so far.
Yates: Malik Jackson, DT, Jaguars. Jackson is an excellent player, but there is a level of expectation that comes with being one of the highest paid players in the game. Jacksonville needs him to be outstanding on a snap-by-snap basis.
Name your most overrated team.
Bowen: Cowboys. I know Ezekiel Elliott can be a star behind that offensive line. But I'm not sure that'll be enough to win the wide-open NFC East with Tony Romo starting the season on the shelf and a defense that looks suspect. Slow down on the hype here.
Clayton: Cowboys. They go from Romo to rookie Dak Prescott at quarterback until Romo's back heals. The defense lacks pass rush and the ability to force turnovers.
Sando: Steelers. Martavis Bryant is out for the season. Le'Veon Bell is suspended and coming off a difficult injury. Ladarius Green is on the PUP list. Ben Roethlisberger is 34 and missed four games last season. This is a really good team, but with the Bengals still strong and the Ravens likely to bounce back, I'm less willing than some to pencil in Pittsburgh for the Super Bowl.
Schatz: Broncos. The Ravens' defense was not as good in 2001 as it was in 2000. The Buccaneers' defense was not as good in 2003 as it was in 2002. The Bears' defense was not as good in 2007 as it was in 2006. The Seahawks' defense was not as good in 2014 as it was in 2013. So why do so many people think the Broncos' defense will be even better in 2016 than it was in 2015? Denver has some amazing defensive players, but so did those other historically great units.
Yates: Cowboys. Romo's injury has gotten the majority of the attention of late -- and that's understandable. But don't forget, this team also has some notable holes on defense. Who is going to rush the passer to start the season? How much will the 10-game absence of Rolando McClain impact the second level of the defense?
What about your most underrated team?
Bowen: Chiefs. With an efficient passing game, the ability to run the ball and a nasty defense, the Chiefs can win the AFC West. And they can also make a deep run into the playoffs.
Clayton: Jaguars. Jacksonville might be a year from being a playoff team, but they have the makings of a good offense and they are loading up on defense.
Sando: Vikings. We unanimously picked the Packers to win the NFC North even before the news broke on Teddy Bridgewater's injury. I was going to pick Minnesota as my underrated team when Bridgewater was healthy and see no reason to change now. This team can run be good enough in the running game and on defense to stay respectable.
Schatz: Chargers. Philip Rivers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The offensive line should be better than the past couple of injury-riddled seasons. Keenan Allen is healthy and Melvin Gordon is likely to improve in his second season. And the defense has some young, up-and-coming talent, such as CB Jason Verrett and DE Joey Bosa.
Yates: Washington. A surprise playoff team last season, Washington has an offense that is peppered with talent and features what should be a better offensive line. Defensively, generating pressure against opposing quarterbacks is key.