As the 2016 season nears, we're asking our NFL Insiders to make some predictions. On Monday, we touched on MVP picks, breakout candidates and more. Today, let's dive into the rookies: The high picks who will struggle, the late-rounders who will thrive, and more.
Which rookie landed in the best spot?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Elliott's vision, burst and ability to run through contact is an ideal fit for the Cowboys' zone scheme. Find daylight and go. He's going to produce behind that O-line.
John Clayton, senior NFL writer: Paxton Lynch, QB, Broncos. Lynch found a perfect home with one of the league's best franchises and a coach (Gary Kubiak) whose philosophies mesh with his skill set. While Lynch could play his way onto the field this year, the Broncos aren't planning to rush him.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Jack Conklin, OT, Titans. The run-oriented Titans want to mash opponents into the ground. Conklin did that more impressively than anyone in college football last season. Great fit, great opportunity, very low risk of busting.
Aaron Schatz, editor-in-chief of Football Outsiders: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. It's fun to be counterintuitive, but sometimes the most obvious answer is the best one. Elliott was probably the best pure runner in the draft, and he gets to play behind the best offensive line. Dallas doesn't have an offense built around the running back as a receiving threat, another reason it's a great fit: Elliott is more Adrian Peterson and less Le'Veon Bell.
Field Yates, NFL Insider: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. This is a perfect fit for Elliott, a do-everything running back who should challenge for 300 (or more) touches this season. Elliott brings a broad skill set to the table and now works behind the best offensive line in football. Watch out.
Which first-rounder will struggle?
Bowen: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Vikings. I like Treadwell's size and catch radius. But can he separate versus defensive backs consistently as a rookie? Treadwell is still raw as a route runner. It could take some time for the Ole Miss product to develop in a pro system.
Clayton: Leonard Floyd, LB, Bears. Floyd has two issues: He's light and he has to learn a complicated scheme. Floyd will end up being a great pick for the Bears because he has speed and pass rush ability, but the first year will be rough.
Sando: Jared Goff, QB, Rams. Goff has already been banged up a couple times during the preseason. He's going to a team with unproven offensive coaching, modest weaponry and a veteran starter who might not be able to buy much time. The schedule doesn't help, either.
Schatz: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Vikings. Treadwell came out as just the fifth-best receiver prospect in the draft, according to our Playmaker Score system. His college yards per reception numbers were really low for a first-round wide receiver. But even acknowledging that, I'm a bit stunned at how low he seems to be on the Vikings' depth chart entering the season. If you're a first-round pick who can't get ahead of Adam Thielen, there's a problem.
Yates: Eli Apple, CB, Giants. I think Apple is going to be a very good pro in time, but snaps might be hard to come by early. With Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as perimeter starters plus veteran Leon Hall added for depth, Apple may not have an obvious immediate role.
Give us a late-rounder who will surpass expectations.
Bowen: Tajae Sharpe, WR, Titans. The fifth-round pick out of UMass has already developed chemistry working with QB Marcus Mariota in the preseason. Sharpe has a long frame, a nice catch radius, and is a much better route runner than I expected.
Clayton: Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs. Off-the-field issues forced him to drop to the fifth round. Hill can be electric with his raw speed and athleticism, particularly on special teams.
Sando: Zack Sanchez, CB, Panthers. A fifth-round pick out of Oklahoma, Sanchez could fill the nickel role for a talented defense. The Panthers have schematic consistency on defense and seem adept at developing players on that side of the ball.
Schatz: Tajae Sharpe, WR, Titans. I think Sharpe will actually fall short of the expectations some Titans fans may have for him, but he certainly will far surpass the typical expectations for a fifth-round wideout. Just the fact that a low-round pick climbed to the top of the depth chart by the end of OTAs is itself a huge positive indicator for Sharpe's future in the league.
Yates: Blake Martinez, LB, Packers. The Packers are expected to utilize Clay Matthews back at his natural position of outside linebacker after shifting him inside to fill a major defensive need last season. Martinez has been working with the starters for much of the offseason and could be a 16-game starter this season. Not bad for a fourth-round pick.
Who's the one rookie to own in fantasy besides Ezekiel Elliott?
Bowen: Michael Thomas, WR, Saints. Thomas brings matchup ability to the Saints' offense. He has the size to go up and get the ball, and the speed to get down the field. Look for QB Drew Brees to target the rookie often on the inside seam route.
Clayton: Corey Coleman, WR, Browns. Coleman stands out as being the best receiver on the Browns, having picked up the offense quickly. QB Robert Griffin III will be looking for him early and often.
Sando: Michael Thomas, WR, Saints. He's the only rookie I drafted in my own friendly neighborhood fantasy league. The Saints put up big numbers offensively every year. Thomas should get ample opportunities.
Schatz: Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants. Consider the odds that Victor Cruz will make it through a full season healthy. Now consider the odds that Cruz is anything close to the amazing player he was before losing two years to injuries. I like Cleveland's Corey Coleman and Houston's Will Fuller better as players, but they play in run-oriented offenses with lesser quarterbacks.
Yates: Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants. Value in fantasy derives from both skill and opportunity. Shepard is a precision route runner who has wowed for much of the offseason. Combine that with the chance to be the No. 2 pass-catcher in a pass-heavy offense, and Shepard should be busy each and every Sunday.
Who's an undrafted player to watch?
Bowen: Jeremy Cash, LB, Panthers. Cash can play a hybrid role for the Panthers in the defensive sub-packages. Think of the former Duke safety as a nickel linebacker with the matchup ability to cover TEs and the natural instincts to finish plays. He should be a star on special teams, too.
Clayton: Trevone Boykin, QB, Seahawks. Next to Dak Prescott, Boykin has been the most impressive rookie quarterback this preseason. He has led fourth-quarter comebacks as the Seahawks' backup quarterback. The only thing holding him back is Russell Wilson's durability.
Sando: Jeremy Cash, LB, Panthers. There's a reason Carolina gave Cash an unusually large signing bonus for an undrafted player. Cash has added 15-20 pounds and has drawn praise from coaches for his ability to find the football.
Schatz: James Cowser, DE, Raiders. Cowser was the favorite sleeper of our SackSEER projection system for edge rushers. He holds the FCS career record with 42.5 sacks at Southern Utah and had the best 3-cone time of any edge rusher at the combine, a strong indicator of future NFL success. Cowser turns 26 at the start of the season (a Mormon mission delayed his NFL career), so there isn't much room for future development. But Cowser should be pretty useful as is, keeping the Raiders' pass rush strong when Khalil Mack or Mario Edwards Jr. needs a snap or two off.
Yates: Jalen Richard, RB, Raiders. While Latavius Murray is the starter and DeAndre Washington the presumptive backup, Richard -- who has dealt with a recent knee injury -- has made a fast and strong impression in training camp. He's small in stature (just 5-foot-8), but offers value, even if it isn't as a starter.