ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun and simple games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
While last season featured a ton of early eliminations, Week 1 this season was relatively tame with only one underdog of at least a field goal winning outright (Los Angeles Chargers over Kansas City Chiefs).
Week 2 features the single most lopsided matchup all season according to both ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay's model. The two models average out to give the Baltimore Ravens an 87% chance to defeat the Cleveland Browns.
If you are in an extremely small group, picking the Ravens makes sense. However, in larger groups, pivoting elsewhere could be optimal as the Ravens will be among the top favorites many more times this season, meaning we will look elsewhere for our top pick.
Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet
1. Arizona Cardinals (vs Carolina Panthers)
The Cardinals check virtually every box this week for an Eliminator pick. They are the second-biggest favorites this week according to ESPN Analytics and the third-biggest favorite based on the point spread. Mike Clay's model has this as the easiest game the rest of the season for the Cardinals, with only a home game against the Tennessee Titans in Week 5 standing out as another obvious chance to use them. Despite all that, they are less than 10% selected this week by Eliminator Challenge participants as of Wednesday morning.
Mike Clay chance to win: 69%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 66%
ESPN BET line: Cardinals -6.5 (-290 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 8% selected
2. Baltimore Ravens (vs Cleveland Browns)
Jeff Saturday explains why he isn't worried about the Ravens after their Week 1 loss.
As mentioned in the introduction, this is the single most-lopsided matchup all season according to both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. If you don't like the other elite options, there is nothing wrong with burning Baltimore. However, in large contests, saving a team that is projected to be favored in every game the rest of the season probably makes more sense, especially with the Ravens projecting as the heavy chalk this week.
Mike Clay chance to win: 93%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 80%
ESPN BET line: Ravens -11.5 (-900 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 28% selected
3. Los Angeles Rams (at Tennessee Titans)
The Titans are the worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, going 3-15 since the start of last season. While the Rams have a juicy Week 9 home matchup against the Saints down the road, Los Angeles is a good team to pick early in Eliminator Challenge while Matthew Stafford is still healthy. There is no better team to choose them against than the Titans, even on the road.
Mike Clay chance to win: 67%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 66%
ESPN BET line: Rams -5.5 (-260 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 17% selected
4. Minnesota Vikings (vs Atlanta Falcons)
The Vikings are in their second-largest favorite role all season according to both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. The two betting models average out to giving the Vikings a 66% chance to win, behind only the Ravens, Cardinals, Rams and Buffalo Bills. And while the Vikings have an unproven quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, they are 15-0 against teams other than the Lions and Rams since the start of last season. They are a better team than the Falcons, they are at home, they have very little future value, and they are barely going to be selected.
Mike Clay chance to win: 70%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 63%
ESPN BET line: Vikings -4.5 (-200 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 1% selected
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5. Dallas Cowboys (vs New York Giants)
Two of the biggest movers in ESPN Analytics' team rankings from Week 1 to Week 2 are the Cowboys and the Giants. The Cowboys' rating rose 1.3 points after outgaining the Eagles on the road in a hard-fought loss. Meanwhile, the Giants' already low rating dropped another point after a Week 1 loss against the Commanders. This is the only game the rest of the season the Cowboys have at least a 60% chance to win according to ESPN Analytics, so in large pools that could last all 18 weeks, this is an opportunity to burn a team with very little future value.
Mike Clay chance to win: 57%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 65%
ESPN BET line: Cowboys -5.5 (-250 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 10% selected
Other options:
Teams used:
Denver Broncos (Week 1)