Whether an NFL team seems underrated or overrated usually depends on who is doing the rating. I've drawn from Las Vegas bookmakers' projected win totals and my own sense to single out five teams I consider overrated and five that aren't getting their proper due.
Five overrated teams
It's logical on the surface to think the Broncos could follow their 2015 formula back to the Super Bowl. The defense should again rank among the NFL's best, and even though the quarterbacks are unproven, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch could realistically combine for fewer than the 24 interceptions Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler tossed last season.
The theory breaks down when you take into account that only one of those interceptions came during the playoffs. Manning limited mistakes, which was critical to the Broncos winning a championship. Even if the Denver defense is good enough to win that way again, there are no assurances Siemian and Lynch can show that kind of restraint.
"A lot of guys don't have the self-control -- they just can't do it," an offensive coordinator said. "Peyton had a great sense of what he needed to do and what buttons to push and when not to tempt fate."
Coach Bruce Arians will have Arizona back in the playoffs, but the way quarterback Carson Palmer has performed since the 2015 regular season ended makes me think he's headed back to being merely good instead of otherworldly. When Palmer threw a couple picks in the preseason recently, Arians noted that the plays resulted more from bad luck than from bad decisions. His comments resonated with me based on what a personnel director said about Palmer earlier this offseason.
"Sometimes it is the randomness of all the breaks going your way, and I thought it fell his way last year," this personnel director said.
Palmer has 46 touchdowns with only 14 picks in 22 regular-season games under Arians the past two seasons. That is no fluke, but the pace might not be sustainable, either. Arizona also figures to regress in points-off-turnover production. The Cardinals scored 140 points that way last season, the highest figure for a Cardinals team since at least 2001, the first year ESPN has that data.
Four of five ESPN Insider columnists picked the Steelers to win the AFC North. I was the only one to pick the Bengals, which means I think those other guys could be overrating Pittsburgh.
The Steelers are legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but Cincinnati's roster is at least as strong. No AFC North team has a higher winning percentage than the Bengals over the past five seasons, but because Cincy has played poorly in the postseason -- with some bad injury luck contributing mightily -- Pittsburgh can seem to be the more reliable choice.
A few concerns for Pittsburgh:
Running back Le'Veon Bell has never played a 16-game NFL season and will not in 2016, thanks to a three-game suspension. Can he hold up physically for a full season while also remaining eligible?
The situation at tight end is unsettled after years of Pittsburgh counting on Heath Miller, who retired. The team doesn't know if or when free-agent addition Ladarius Green will be a factor.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger missed four games because of injury last season. He has missed at least three games in three of the past six seasons. Can he hold up?
Wide receiver Martavis Bryant's suspension for the season subtracts a player who caught nine passes for 154 yards against Denver in the playoffs.
Vegas set the Rams' win total at 7.5, which seems optimistic for a team likely to play rookie quarterback Jared Goff before he's ready. The Rams also lost depth and leadership on defense after parting with linebacker James Laurinaitis, defensive end Chris Long, cornerback Janoris Jenkins and safety Rodney McLeod.
This will be a season of transition all the way around for the Rams. They have moved from St. Louis and sacrificed their draft for a QB, and key elements of the defense are new. They have asked a first-time offensive coordinator to successfully develop a quarterback -- something the organization has not done since Mike Martz left -- within a distinctly defensive team culture.
Getting to 7-9 this season would inspire another round of groans, but it could be impressive under the circumstances.
Betting support for the Jaguars has pushed up their Vegas win total into the 7.5 range. There's much to like about the progress Jacksonville made on offense last season. The defensive building blocks put into place this offseason should be another source of optimism. I do wonder how a team that has won 14 games overall the past four seasons will deal with real expectations.
Recent draft choices Dante Fowler Jr., Myles Jack and Jalen Ramsey could become key contributors on defense. What are the odds all three will be game-changers right away while experiencing no complications from their known knee issues? Free-agent newcomer Malik Jackson flourished as a role player on Denver's defensive line when opposing offenses were preoccupied with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. What impact will Jackson have in Jacksonville?
After overhauling the offense the past two seasons, the Jaguars are entering the first year of a full-scale defensive rebuild. The results might not be immediate.
Five underrated teams
The Vikings won the NFC North last season without fully emerging from Green Bay's shadow. Outside expectations for Minnesota will naturally plummet now that QB Teddy Bridgewater is out for the season, but the Vikings are better-equipped than just about any team to function with a journeyman backup such as Shaun Hill.
The formula for winning with a subpar quarterback has not changed. If you've got a top-10 running game and top-10 defense, you'll have a chance. The Vikings have both and were never going to be a quarterback-driven team anyway. They'll miss Bridgewater and could miss the playoffs because of his absence, but they are not necessarily doomed.
Hill has 45 touchdown passes, 29 interceptions and a 16-18 record as a starter for San Francisco (2007-09), Detroit (2010) and St. Louis (2014). The Vikings are better than Hill's previous teams were, which should help.
Vegas has the Lions' over/under set at 7.5 victories. I keep getting between nine and 11 victories for the Lions every time I run through their schedule (maybe they're overrated ... by me). Detroit has upper-tier talent at all three levels of its defense and at quarterback, where Matthew Stafford shined while tossing 19 touchdown passes with only two interceptions in the second half of last season.
How a team finished its previous season doesn't necessarily carry over, but the Lions' dramatic offensive improvement down the stretch seemed tethered to changes made when Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator. If those changes were as real as they appeared, Detroit could be back in the playoff mix -- especially if Bridgewater's absence lowers the Vikings' ceiling. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson (retired) will be missed, but Stafford put up great numbers targeting receiver Golden Tate over the season's second half: 50-of-59 passing for 436 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions.
I went through the Chargers' schedule and came up with only five victories initially, which means I'm guilty of underrating them as well, at least at first glance. The Vegas over/under (seven wins) for San Diego seems about right, but the Chargers made my underrated list because I think they can keep pace in the AFC West with an Oakland team that seems to be generating a lot more buzz.
While poor depth could still drag down the Chargers, they could outperform expectations if running back Melvin Gordon and the offensive line improve enough to take at least some pressure off quarterback Philip Rivers. We should expect San Diego to scheme more Gordon-friendly runs, the kind that let him square his shoulders for downhill running behind an interior offensive line that is plenty big.
These seem to be reasonable expectations after Gordon and the line turned in a worst-case-scenario performance last season. Gordon appears to be playing faster this summer, such as when he got into his route quickly and decisively to catch a scoring pass against Tennessee.
Rivers has repeatedly shown he can carry below-average San Diego teams into the .500 range. The Chargers were worse than below average in 2015. They have a low bar to clear for improvement.
Former coach Joe Philbin didn't seem to have a clear plan for the offense, bouncing around the offensive spectrum with Mike Sherman and then Bill Lazor as his coordinators. There was also a perception that Philbin wasn't all-in on quarterback Ryan Tannehill. I'm banking that new coach Adam Gase will bring needed clarity, leadership and scheming.
Miami's defense is still a big concern from a personnel standpoint, and it remains to be seen whether defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh will dominate as consistently as he should. But if Gase can breathe life into Tannehill and the offense, as I expect, the entire roster should respond in a positive way.
The Chiefs are my pick to win the AFC West because Andy Reid, quarterback Alex Smith and the defensive infrastructure make them the most reliable team in a changing division. The offensive line is improved and sufficient weaponry is in place. Outside linebacker Justin Houston's injury could force Kansas City to send a fifth pass-rusher more frequently, but there's talent through the defense, plus continuity.
I see the Chiefs getting back into the 11-win range, which would beat their 9.5-win total posted in Vegas.