Note: This is a new, updated version of ESPN's Future Power Rankings of NBA teams. The previous edition ran in early August; the third edition ran on March 2, 2010; the second edition launched on Dec. 15, 2009; and the first edition kicked things off on Nov. 10, 2009.
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons.
Consider this a convenient way to see the direction your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).
As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.
With all the big moves around the league this summer, it's time for a new edition of the Future Power Rankings. Two important notes: (1) Now that the NBA calendar has flipped to a new season, we are evaluating the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons; and (2) we are not considering the changes that might be made to the collective bargaining agreement because there is no way to know how those changes will reshape the league.
Here are our latest rankings, from 1 to 30:
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
21. Memphis Grizzlies | Future Power Rating: 442
The Grizzlies have built up an impressive array of young talent the old-fashioned way: through the draft. As long as they've listened to their scouting department instead of letting owner Michael Heisley take long-distance suggestions from Jerry West, they've chosen extremely well.
This year's picks, Greivis Vasquez and Xavier Henry, look like keepers, which add to a well-stocked nucleus that includes Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, O.J. Mayo, Mike Conley and Darrell Arthur. We rated Memphis 13th in players, and the only reason the Griz didn't rate higher was our uncertainty about whether Zach Randolph would play after this season.
Unfortunately, the best draft opportunity of the past half-decade was squandered on Hasheem Thabeet thanks to Heisley's interference, a waste of the 2009 second overall pick and a sign of the mismanagement that keeps Memphis from a higher ranking. Of late, Heisley has made all the big decisions by himself, often in direct opposition to his basketball people's advice, leaving GM Chris Wallace to defend the indefensible.
While the Griz may have cap space if Randolph walks, their market works against them. Playing in a moribund arena in an economically depressed flyover city, with dodgy ownership that has a reputation for being cheap, Memphis rated dead last among our 30 markets. Thus, the Griz will have a tough time recruiting high-caliber players in free agency. It's possible Heisley may prefer to rent his cap space for $3 million a pop anyway -- he's done it several times in previous seasons.
(Previous rank: 24)
22. Golden State Warriors | Future Power Rating: 439
The Warriors got a mini-bump in our rankings this summer when it was announced that owner Chris Cohan would sell the team. Cohan was one of the worst owners in the league, and after years of mismanagement, it appeared that the Warriors were on the road to recovery.
New owners Joe Lacob and Peter Guber have taken a wait-and-see approach. Larry Riley is still the GM and, for the most part, there haven't been major changes at the top. But expect the Warriors' front office to look radically different by this summer.
The team has plenty of young assets, such as Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis and David Lee. Curry and Ellis are having career seasons under new head coach Keith Smart, but Lee has regressed a bit since making the move from the Knicks to the Warriors.
The rest of the team is a bit of a mystery right now. Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright and Ekpe Udoh are talented, but injuries have set them back.
The big question is still the same: When will they start winning? It seems like the Warriors need more than what they have right now, and the team doesn't have a lot of financial flexibility, nor will they likely have a 2012 first-rounder. So while the general direction of the team is a bit more encouraging than in years past, it's tough to be overly enthusiastic.
(Previous rank: 21)
23. New Orleans Hornets | Future Power Rating: 426
Despite their surprisingly strong start, we have trouble generating a lot of enthusiasm for the Hornets' future. The fact they've become a ward of the league doesn't exactly help, although it may at least give a stay of execution to the Chris Paul era in New Orleans.
What worries us more, however, is how their cap situation plays out in future years. The Hornets are at risk of losing David West in free agency and have taken on enough contracts (Trevor Ariza, Jarrett Jack) that they've lost substantial financial flexibility. A large trade exception remains in their back pocket, but unlike cap space, exceptions expire, and they don't increase in size if a player such as West suddenly bolts.
Basically, they're stuck in between. The Hornets won't be bad enough to rebuild through the draft; besides, they gave Portland a future first-round pick in exchange for Jerryd Bayless. But the current roster isn't good enough to contend, even if Paul stays healthy and plays at his current MVP-caliber form. We rated the new management team of Dell Demps and Monty Williams in the middle of the pack, because neither has much of a track record, but they'll have to pull all the right strings to keep the Hornets in contention over the next three seasons, and to keep Paul in the same uniform.
(Previous rank: 23)
24. Philadelphia 76ers | Future Power Rating: 414
The Sixers are struggling again this season and we don't foresee any relief for a while. Yes, they have some young talent. (Jrue Holiday has been good and, at 20 years old, should only get better. Thaddeus Young's minutes are down, but his player efficiency rating is way up. Jodie Meeks is giving some good minutes to the Sixers off the bench.)
But there are problems galore. Evan Turner, the No. 2 pick in the 2010 draft, is off to a rough start. Turner has struggled to fit in with the team without the ball in his hands, and given the Sixers' woes in the frontcourt, it's hard to understand why they passed on a player such as Derrick Favors for him.
That dilemma is endemic of the challenges Philly faces. As fans are well aware, the direction of the team is a still a mystery. While the Sixers have an interesting young core, the team is also bogged down with veterans with bad contracts like Elton Brand and Andres Nocioni. The team also has a major defensive hole to fill in the middle after trading Samuel Dalembert while being overloaded with wings.
Making matters worse, the Sixers have no real money to spend until the summer of 2013 and will likely be just good enough to pick in the late lottery each year, effectively killing their chances to get significantly better in the short term.
(Previous rank: 25)
25. Detroit Pistons | Future Power Rating: 408
The hard times that have befallen the city of Detroit continue to hammer the Pistons' front door as they continue to slide in our rankings. The days of hardcore fans filling the Palace are gone. The Bad Boys are taking on a completely different (and unwanted) connotation. Given yet another rough start to the season, it's pretty hard to be confident in the future of the franchise.
The team is still up for sale, with no clear resolution coming anytime soon. The team lacks a legitimate star. They're bogged down by bad contracts on their books for the next few seasons. And the roster lacks any proven long-term options in the middle.
The two bright spots for the Pistons have been Rodney Stuckey, who is having the best season of his young career, and rookie Greg Monroe, who has shown a few glimmers of progress after a very slow start.
But there isn't much help on the way for the young duo, as Joe Dumars' hands are tied a bit until the team is sold. If the Pistons are going to do anything in the next few years, they'll need to get Richard Hamilton off the books, make a trade-deadline deal that gives them value for Tayshaun Prince and develop a couple of their prospects. That's a lot of ifs for a team that was a lock to play deep into the playoffs for the past decade.
(Previous rank: 22)
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
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