Note: This is a new, updated version of ESPN's Future Power Rankings of NBA teams. The previous edition ran in early August; the third edition ran on March 2, 2010; the second edition launched on Dec. 15, 2009; and the first edition kicked things off on Nov. 10, 2009.
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons.
Consider this a convenient way to see the direction your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).
As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.
With all the big moves around the league this summer, it's time for a new edition of the Future Power Rankings. Two important notes: (1) Now that the NBA calendar has flipped to a new season, we are evaluating the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons; and (2) we are not considering the changes that might be made to the collective bargaining agreement because there is no way to know how those changes will reshape the league.
Here are our latest rankings, from 1 to 30:
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
16. Atlanta Hawks | Future Power Rating: 491
We really like Atlanta's roster we're just not sure where the Hawks go from here. With Josh Smith and Al Horford both likely to make the East's All-Star team, the Hawks' frontcourt is set for the next decade. Throw in a few other solid younger players (Marvin Williams, Jeff Teague) and still-productive older ones such as Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford, and the Hawks have a solid base from which to contend in the East.
The question is how they get any better or how they fend off the rot and avoid becoming worse. Johnson's six-year, $123 million deal was an egregious overreach by a franchise that doesn't have the financial wherewithal to easily absorb a dead-weight contract, and once Horford's extension kicks in a year from now, the Hawks will be walking the luxury-tax tightrope for the foreseeable future.
Ownership's shallow pockets are one issue, especially with the team losing money at the gate, but it's made worse because the team will have to replace some veteran players. And while the city of Atlanta has always lured NBA players, the Hawks jersey has much less pull. We left Atlanta in the middle of the pack among markets, making its lack of future cap flexibility a greater concern.
(Previous rank: 19)
17. Denver Nuggets | Future Power Rating: 490
Can we just give them an incomplete? Any analysis of the Nuggets' future prospects starts and ends with the resolution of Carmelo Anthony's fate. If he signs the three-year extension that's been sitting on the table for months, you can move the Nuggets' ranking up several spots. If he is traded or departs as a free agent, however, you can move Denver down a few slots, especially if such a trade doesn't land a compelling package in return.
We're uncertain about more than that. The Nuggets forced out the sometimes combative but consistently effective management team of Bret Bearup, Mark Warkentien and Rex Chapman, installing former Toronto exec Masai Ujiri as the new GM. We've yet to see him cut a deal (the former bosses handled this summer's free-agent action), so we have no idea what to expect. Meanwhile, the big boss is now 30-year-old Josh Kroenke, owner Stan Kroenke's son; the younger Kroenke was installed as the head of day-to-day operations so the elder Kroenke could purchase the St. Louis Rams.
Here's what we do know: The Nuggets have three enticing young palyers in Nene, Arron Afflalo and Ty Lawson. They're potentially well under the cap if Melo walks. But they are not exactly raking it in at the box office and might need to keep payroll down. And unless they fall to the bottom of the West, upcoming drafts are unlikely to do them favors.
Add it all up, and it's a decidedly middle-of-the-pack outlook. Which is exactly where we've put them.
(Previous rank: 9)
18. Milwaukee Bucks | Future Power Rating: 466
The Bucks have been rapidly rising in our rankings for more than a year. In our first FPR, we had them ranked 29th in the league. Now, they are ranked 18th. But for the first time since we started the rankings, the Bucks appear to have hit a wall.
A strong rookie performance from Brandon Jennings, a breakout season for Andrew Bogut, a midseason trade for John Salmons and some hard-nosed play down the stretch turned the Bucks into a solid playoff team in 2009-10. But injuries and poor performances by Salmons and free-agent acquisition Corey Maggette have hampered the team's progress.
Bogut and Jennings are both having solid seasons. But the rest of the team is struggling, and the Bucks are no longer the darlings of the East.
Looking at the team, you get the feeling it could be competitive for a long time if Bogut and Jennings continue to improve. (It's essential to have a terrific big man and point guard in the NBA.) But the supporting cast leaves a lot to be desired, and given the big contracts Milwaukee paid out to Salmons and Drew Gooden and took on in Maggette, it might not be able to give its two budding stars the support they need anytime soon.
(Previous rank: 18)
19. Washington Wizards | Future Power Rating: 457
John Wall better be awesome, because the rest of the picture in Washington still doesn't look great. The Wizards have some talented young players, but none of them seems to have enough of a head on his shoulders to take advantage of his skills. Andray Blatche -- whom the team recently committed to for five years with a questionable extension -- and JaVale McGee form a potentially impressive frontcourt duo, but each has had major problems converting his potential into winning basketball.
Beyond that, the Wizards are counting mostly on getting more high draft picks and converting some upcoming cap space into players. They're still saddled with Gilbert Arenas' awful contract, not to mention his flaky locker-room presence, while general manager Ernie Grunfeld seems more interested in short-term fixes with middling veterans (Josh Howard? Seriously?) than in executing a far-sighted rebuilding program.
The good news in Washington is that Wall looked good enough in his first month of NBA ball to deliver on the promise of a No. 1 pick, and coach Flip Saunders will squeeze what he can from the supporting cast. Additionally, the D.C. market is a solid one and will move up the rankings if the team has some success, perhaps enabling the Wizards to lure a free-agent catch.
(Previous rank: 20)
20. Sacramento Kings | Future Power Rating: 456
The Kings have several factors in their favor. They have two great talents in Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins, so although the rest of the roster isn't that good, they're still near the middle of the pack in the players category. They will have oodles of cap space this summer, and although cash is tight for the organization right now and probably will be until it gets a new arena, the Kings still should have the wherewithal to be players in free agency. And they should have high draft picks for the next couple of years.
That last item, of course, is a mixed blessing, because you don't get high picks without an awful record. Sacramento is one of the league's doormats at 5-16, and that's inexcusable given the talent available.
Unfortunately, the Kings aren't nearly as well-run as some of their peers, and the cracks in the facade have only grown wider as their throw-stuff-against-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks strategy produces two steps back for every one forward. Whether it's trying 6-foot-11 Jason Thompson at small forward, coddling Evans at every turn or shuttling players in and out of the rotation in a manner that borders on arbitrary, this organization hasn't come anywhere close to maximizing its players' abilities.
Those factors, along with an unfavorable locale, make Sacramento the third-least desirable market in our survey thereby reducing much of the benefit of all that cap space.
(Previous rank: 12)
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
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