Note: This is a new, updated version of ESPN's Future Power Rankings of NBA teams. The previous edition ran in early August; the third edition ran on March 2, 2010; the second edition launched on Dec. 15, 2009; and the first edition kicked things off on Nov. 10, 2009.
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons.
Consider this a convenient way to see the direction your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).
As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.
With all the big moves around the league this summer, it's time for a new edition of the Future Power Rankings. Two important notes: (1) Now that the NBA calendar has flipped to a new season, we are evaluating the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons; and (2) we are not considering the changes that might be made to the collective bargaining agreement because there is no way to know how those changes will reshape the league.
Here are our latest rankings, from 1 to 30:
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
1. Miami Heat | Future Power Rating: 696
OK, the Heat won't be breaking the Bulls' record of 72 wins in a season, presuming they don't finish 2010-11 with a 64-1 flourish. And the future of the salary cap is a limiting factor as well -- if the midlevel exception is eliminated in the next collective bargaining agreement, Miami may have trouble putting together a quality supporting cast. Nonetheless, one has to like the Heat's chances over the next three seasons better than those of any other team, for the simple reason that no club possesses a trio as fearsome as Miami's LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.
Two other advantages help cement Miami's position in the top spot. First, it's the top-rated market in our rankings. As a tax-free, warm-weather contender, it'll be the first choice of any free agent for whom money isn't a major consideration, which -- as we saw with Erick Dampier -- should give it a leg up in obtaining decent role players. Second, the Heat are well-run. Pat Riley has been among the league's most effective GMs as long as he's been upstairs, and Erik Spoelstra has been among its best coaches. Combined with Micky Arison's solid ownership, only two teams rated higher in management.
One area in which the Heat won't be receiving help is the draft. With first-rounders owed to Cleveland and Toronto and their own picks likely to be at the end of each round, Miami ranked dead last in that category.
But with the core they've assembled, the Heat are in prime position for years to come.
(Previous rank: 1)
2. Oklahoma City | Future Power Rating: 692
The Thunder have as bright a future as any team in the league, with emerging superstar Russell Westbrook joining forces with scoring champ Kevin Durant to give them a potent offensive core. Now it's just a question of filling in the pieces. The Thunder have some intriguing young players -- Serge Ibaka, James Harden, Cole Aldrich, Jeff Green, Eric Maynor -- but it's an open question how many of them will emerge as championship-caliber sidekicks.
Moreover, it's not clear how many of them the Thunder can ultimately keep. Oklahoma City is still sitting on a hoard of cap space, so it ranks fifth in the money category, but it'll need to be more careful than other franchises because it can't afford to pay luxury tax in its tiny market. Oklahoma is not a highly desirable landing spot, either, but the team's bright future should help the recruiting effort.
The Thunder also own a future first-round pick of the Clippers -- never a bad asset, whether for themselves or in a trade -- and have benefited from shrewd management under general manager Sam Presti. Sum it all up and they rate as the Heat's most likely foil for the three seasons after this one, ranking just four points behind Miami for the top spot.
(Previous rank: 3)
3. Los Angeles Lakers | Future Power Rating: 675
Age is a legitimate concern for the two-time defending champs, but with both Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol playing at or near their peak levels, it appears the Lakers may be able to keep their run going through 2014. We dropped L.A. 26 points in players, now that we're looking a season farther ahead than last time, but otherwise, its ranking held up.
The Lakers won't have the money to throw around that others do, and they have quietly become more frugal in recent years. However, the league's second-ranked market acts as a magnet to lure bargain-priced free agents -- that's how Matt Barnes arrived this offseason and it's why Lamar Odom stayed -- and wise management has allowed them to accomplish the rest.
Despite questions about whether Phil Jackson will stick around beyond the season, we gave L.A the benefit of the doubt and ranked it second in management. It's not just Jackson, of course. The strong ownership of Jerry Buss and the quiet, effective management of GM Mitch Kupchak have both contributed mightily to the team's success. If age does start to hamper the roster, one suspects they'll find solutions.
(Previous rank: 2)
4. Chicago Bulls | Future Power Rating: 666
The Bulls took a big leap in the last edition of our rankings in August, from ninth to fourth. They stay at fourth in our rankings this time, but that can be a bit misleading. In August, the Bulls were 100 points behind the No. 1 Miami Heat. Now, there are just 30 points separating them from Miami and just nine points between them and the third-place Lakers.
There is a lot to be bullish about in Chicago. Derrick Rose has taken his game to the next level with a drastically improved jump shot. If he can start drawing more fouls, he's looking more and more like a potential MVP candidate down the road. Joakim Noah continues to blossom as well. In just his fourth season, Noah is averaging 14 points and almost 12 rebounds per game, and despite a hand injury that will sideline him for 8-10 weeks, he still can be one of the best centers in the East. Add in Carlos Boozer, who has just returned from injury, and the Bulls look like a very dangerous team in the East for years to come.
If the team can find a way to add a sweet-shooting 2-guard either at the February trade deadline or this summer in free agency, the Bulls should challenge the Heat for the East title over the next few years.
The Bulls also get another slight bump in management thanks to the job head coach Tom Thibodeau is doing in his first season in Chicago. Not only does he have the Bulls playing better defense, but he's proved he can keep the offense humming at the same time.
(Previous rank: 4)
5. Utah Jazz | Future Power Rating: 595
The Jazz are off to another great start, and given the play of much of their young core, we've boosted their overall ranking from No. 8 to No. 5.
Deron Williams (26 years old) and Paul Millsap (25) are both having the best seasons of their careers. Williams is one of the top point guards in the NBA, if not the best. Millsap continues to be a beast on the boards and has dramatically increased his scoring (18 ppg) with Carlos Boozer gone. Jerry Sloan has also reinvigorated the career of Al Jefferson (25), giving the Jazz another potent offensive weapon in the middle. Forward C.J. Miles (23) is also having a career season, and the Jazz have other young players like Gordon Hayward and Jeremy Evans who have shown promise.
In fact, had the team chosen to hang on to Wesley Matthews this summer, the Jazz might've had the best young core of any team in the league.
The scary thing is Utah can get even better this season. Andrei Kirilenko can still play, but if the Jazz are willing to take back a longer deal, they can use his expiring contract to add more firepower at the trade deadline. Of course, to do so, they'll have to continue to pay the luxury tax. But given the competition they face every day in the West, do they have a choice? If the team cuts back, it risks offending Deron Williams and could possibly lose him to free agency in the summer of 2012. The Jazz will do just about anything to keep that from happening.
Utah also ranks high on the management scale. Jerry Sloan continues to work his wonders from the sidelines, GM Kevin O'Connor quietly constructs a rock-solid team every season and Jazz owner Greg Miller continues to be willing to pay the tax, within reason, to keep Utah in contention.
(Previous rank: 8)
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
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