Note: This is a new, updated version of ESPN's Future Power Rankings of NBA teams. The previous edition ran in early August; the third edition ran on March 2, 2010; the second edition launched on Dec. 15, 2009; and the first edition kicked things off on Nov. 10, 2009.
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-the-court success expected for each team in the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons.
Consider this a convenient way to see the direction your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000 based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this one.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories. (See table at right.)
As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players. That category accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.
With all the big moves around the league this summer, it's time for a new edition of the Future Power Rankings. Two important notes: (1) Now that the NBA calendar has flipped to a new season, we are evaluating the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons; and (2) we are not considering the changes that might be made to the collective bargaining agreement because there is no way to know how those changes will reshape the league.
Here are our latest rankings, from 1-30:
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
6. Orlando Magic | Future Power Rating: 584
The Magic should be one of the best teams in the league for the foreseeable future based solely on having Dwight Howard patrolling the paint. But you have to wonder if they've spent themselves so far into a corner that it will be difficult to assemble a championship-caliber supporting cast.
Orlando is a small-market team that's well into the luxury tax, and it's likely to remain capped out for the foreseeable future. Combined with an aging core, that's a recipe for problems. The only good news is the surplus of tradable assets on their deeper roster, most notably frontcourt reserves Brandon Bass, Marcin Gortat and Ryan Anderson. The Magic also may be able to extend their reign -- along with their financial pain -- by swapping Vince Carter, who is guaranteed only $4 million next season, for a more expensive (and productive) wing player.
Orlando's management also rates highly, thanks to stable ownership under the DeVos family, a solid GM in Otis Smith and one of the NBA's top coaches in Stan Van Gundy. Combined with a sunny, tax-free market that ranked fourth out of 30 teams, the Magic should be able to lure players in the rare moments when their cap situation allows it.
(Previous rank: 7)
7. New York Knicks | Future Power Rating: 583
The Knicks didn't get LeBron James this summer, but they continue to skyrocket up our Future Power Rankings. This summer, the Knicks moved up a whopping 12 spots in our player rankings, the most by any team at that time. Since August, they've moved up another three spots to No. 8 thanks in large part to a terrific start to the season and what looks like the inside track to acquiring Carmelo Anthony.
Amare Stoudemire is having an MVP-worthy season, Raymond Felton has been terrific and the Knicks may have scored the steal of the draft in second-round pick Landry Fields. All are unanticipated developments that should help the Knicks' long-term future.
The Knicks continue to rank high in the money department not because they have the most cap space, but because we believe they'll get the most bang for their buck. With Chris Sheridan's recent report that Anthony wants to play for just one team -- the Knicks -- we're pretty confident that they'll add the All-Star, either at the trade deadline or this summer.
New York's long-term cap projections also look bright. Even if they are paying Stoudemire and Anthony the max, they should still have the cap room to make another big splash -- say, 2012 free agents Chris Paul or Deron Williams -- in two summers.
In short, despite some obvious setbacks, the future in New York has never seemed brighter. While it's doubtful they'll be able to compete with the likes of Miami or Chicago in the future, they should, for the first time in a long time, finally field a contender starting as early as next season.
(Previous rank: 11)
8. San Antonio Spurs | Future Power Rating: 581
The Spurs continue to be the most resilient team in the league. For years we've been expecting some sort of slippage on the court, but the team continues to perform at an elite level season after season.
But it can't last forever. Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Antonio McDyess and Richard Jefferson, all at least 30 years old, can't keep going at this pace, and Tony Parker (28) is the only proven veteran in his prime.
The good news is that the Spurs have slowly been injecting some youth into the program, as George Hill (24), DeJuan Blair (21) and Tiago Splitter (25) all appear to have bright futures.
Given the Spurs' stellar management, we think they'll continue to find ways to keep themselves in contention. Despite the occasional misfire (e.g., trading Luis Scola, drafting Ian Mahinmi), the Spurs' brainpower and spending power make it hard to be too pessimistic about their future.
(Previous rank: 10)
9. Dallas Mavericks | Future Power Rating: 570
The Mavericks continue to be more of a "now" team than a team looking to the future, which explains why, despite being a contender, they rank so low.
Most of the Mavs' core is old. Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Jason Terry and Brendan Haywood are all past their primes and should give diminishing returns in the future. Two other potential impact players for the Mavs -- Caron Butler and Tyson Chandler -- are free agents next summer and their future with the team is still very much up in the air.
The Mavs up-and-comers really consist of one guy: 22-year-old point guard Rodrigue Beaubois. But Beaubois, who has played just four games this season, is still a question mark. And the fact that the free-spending Mavs are capped out until 2011 or, more likely, 2012 doesn't help the situation.
The good news for Mavs fans is that owner Mark Cuban is creative, and he has found ways to keep the Mavs relevant in the past. So while it's hard to see the Mavs maintaining their incredible streak of nine consecutive seasons with 50 or more wins going past this season, it's hard to count them out, too.
(Previous rank: 14)
10. Houston Rockets | Future Power Rating: 555
OK, we're a little down on Houston's roster these days. Maybe we're overreacting to a 9-14 start, but Yao Ming didn't look good in his brief return before another injury took him out of the lineup, and the supporting cast has held up in part because of the surprise play of 30-year-old Luis Scola, who will have trouble maintaining that level in the upcoming three-year window. As a result, Houston went from 10th in the players category in our last rankings to a tie for 21st.
Houston's draft assets also don't look as strong, as a result of the surprisingly strong play by the New York Knicks. The right to exchange picks with New York this year may end up being worthless, and the 2012 first-round pick Houston received from the Knicks may be only a middle-to-low choice.
Houston still has some factors in its favor, however. The management is strong from top to bottom, with owner Les Alexander, GM Daryl Morey and head coach Rick Adelman ranking among the best in their respective positions. Shrewd moves by this core -- such as nabbing Scola and Kevin Martin for a pittance -- have helped keep the Rockets afloat amidst all the injuries. They've managed their cap well and are willing to spend, too. But their next decision will be a huge one: Will they re-sign Yao when he's a free agent next summer, and if so, for how much?
(Previous rank: 5)
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
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