Note: This is a new, updated version of ESPN's Future Power Rankings of NBA teams. The previous edition ran in early August; the third edition ran on March 2, 2010; the second edition launched on Dec. 15, 2009; and the first edition kicked things off on Nov. 10, 2009.
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons.
Consider this a convenient way to see the direction your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).
As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.
With all the big moves around the league this summer, it's time for a new edition of the Future Power Rankings. Two important notes: (1) Now that the NBA calendar has flipped to a new season, we are evaluating the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons; and (2) we are not considering the changes that might be made to the collective bargaining agreement because there is no way to know how those changes will reshape the league.
Here are our latest rankings, from 1-30:
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
11. Indiana Pacers | Future Power Rating: 540
The Pacers continue to fly up our rankings, despite being essentially a .500 team. In August, they rose a whopping nine spots, from No. 26 to 17. This time, the team rise six more spots to 11th place.
While the Pacers don't excel in any category except money, a couple of factors fuel our optimism.
For starters, big man Roy Hibbert looks like a Most Improved Player candidate. The 24-year-old, 7-foot-2 big man is averaging 15 points, eight rebounds and two blocks and still hasn't reached his ceiling. Add in point guard Darren Collison, who was acquired this offseason, and star swingman Danny Granger and the Pacers suddenly have a terrific young core to build around.
The team has also been helped by the sudden emergence of Brandon Rush. After three passive, inconsistent seasons, Rush is hitting his jump shots and locking down players on the defensive end. If he can keep it up, he becomes a fourth piece to the puzzle. The Pacers also have a wealth of other young players -- such as Tyler Hansbrough, Paul George, A.J. Price and Lance Stephenson -- who barely play but all have promise down the road.
Clearly, president of ops. Larry Bird and GM David Morway have done a terrific job of drafting in the middle and back end of the draft. But they've also managed the books well and go into the trade deadline with a myriad of expiring contracts and/or a ton of cap space next summer. They have an impressive $27 million in expiring contracts to play with, and the fact that most of the players who are on expiring deals (Mike Dunleavy, T.J. Ford, Jeff Foster) can be major contributors on playoff teams improves the Pacers' chances of getting a significant piece in return.
If Indiana can't make a deal, it walks into next summer with the second most cap space of any team in the league. Given their young, up-and-coming stable of talent, they should be able to persuade a good free agent to come aboard.
(Previous rank: 17)
12. New Jersey Nets | Future Power Rating: 535
The good news is that the Nets are no longer the worst team in the league. The bad news is that they still haven't made much progress this season. Still, despite the team's woes in the win-loss column, we continue to show some optimism about their future. In fact, the Nets have risen three spots in our overall rankings since the summer.
Why? Their current crop is solid, talent-wise. Brook Lopez and Devin Harris are keepers. And we've liked what we've seen from rookie Derrick Favors in limited minutes. But more so, we are enthusiastic about what the Nets might be able to accomplish this summer. We have them ranked No. 1 in our money category and feel like the free-agent shutout of 2010 won't happen again this time, as the team should have enough cap space to land a max player. They've been pursuing Carmelo Anthony hard, but even if they can't get him, they should be able to lure a top-tier free agent next season, with the move to Brooklyn not too far down the road.
We also believe the Nets will be in a strong position vis-à-vis the draft for the next few years. The Nets not only have their first-round picks, but they recently acquired first-rounders from the Lakers (2011) and Rockets (2012) and should pick up a potential lottery pick from the Warriors as early as 2012.
(Previous rank: 15)
13. Portland Trail Blazers | Future Power Rating: 523
What a difference a few good knees make. In the second edition of the Future Power Rankings a year ago, we had Portland on top, opining that a star combo of Greg Oden and Brandon Roy, along with several promising young prospects, added up to an emerging contender.
Now? With Oden out for the season to undergo a second microfracture knee surgery, Roy a shadow of his former self as a result of his own knee problems, and secondary Blazers such as LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and Rudy Fernandez failing to develop further, Portland's destiny seems to be the NBA's middle class. Portland still has some interesting assets, most notably the expiring contracts of Joel Przybilla and Andre Miller, and judging by the constant flood of trade offers the Blazers receive for him, it's pretty clear other teams highly value the potential of Batum.
The Blazers also own a future first-rounder from New Orleans, and while Portland's cap space is tied up for the foreseeable future, deep-pocketed owner Paul Allen is at least willing to spend if it's the right deal. New GM Rich Cho will have to find one to keep the Blazers in their accustomed perch as a Western Conference contender.
(Previous rank: 6)
14. Boston Celtics | Future Power Rating: 520
The Celtics continue to prove that age matters in the NBA. But these rankings are not about the present. Thus, Boston sit in the middle of the pack yet again.
They have young talent: Rajon Rondo is among the best point guards in the NBA; Kendrick Perkins, despite being around seemingly forever, is just 26; and younger players such as Glen Davis and Nate Robinson contribute now, while Avery Bradley and Semih Erden show potential for the future.
But the youthful crew doesn't have the makings of an NBA playoff team, let alone an NBA powerhouse. Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce may be able to give it a go one more time in 2011-12, but after that, Danny Ainge has to start rebuilding.
The Celtics have a great market, competent management and leadership and, eventually, the money to bring in free agents. But right now, the future is still a very big question mark.
(Previous rank: 13)
15. Los Angeles Clippers | Future Power Rating: 523
It's kind of like the immovable object against the irresistible force. With an emerging superstar in Blake Griffin, a high-scoring wing in Eric Gordon, and strong rookies in Al-Farouq Aminu and Eric Bledsoe, the Clippers have so much promise that they couldn't possibly screw it up.
L.A. rated 11th in players and is likely to have more coming down the pipeline. It'll have a high pick after this season and owns an unprotected pick from Minnesota in 2012, and a future first-rounder owed to the Thunder is heavily protected until 2016. The Clippers also have a fair amount of cap space coming online this summer and have the desirable L.A. market working strongly in their favor.
So it seems they can't screw this up ... except that this franchise is so screwed up that they couldn't possibly make this work. Sadly, there's no telling whether they'll be able to take full advantage, at least until long-time laughingstock Donald Sterling sells the team to a more reputable owner.
We don't know how the Clippers will manage to waste this opportunity, we just know that they will -- just like they've done for the past quarter century under Sterling's watch. Even if Griffin turns into the best player in the league, the Clips may still find a way to go 37-45 ... and Sterling may still find a reason to heckle his players from the sidelines.
(Previous rank: 16)
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
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