The Los Angeles Lakers announced Saturday that forward Anthony Davis will miss at least four weeks before being reevaluated due to an MCL sprain in his left knee suffered during Friday's loss at the Minnesota Timberwolves. Davis' absence is the latest setback for a Lakers team that has already used 15 different starting lineups this season, according to Basketball-Reference.com, more than coach Frank Vogel used en route to the 2020 NBA championship.
At 16-14, the Lakers are three games back of a top-four seed in the Western Conference despite playing the league's easiest schedule to date in terms of opponent and location. Without Davis, they'll find it more difficult to make up ground during a home-heavy stretch, with eight of their next 11 games in Los Angeles. The Lakers will ultimately make up for that favorable early schedule by playing 23 of their final 37 games on the road.
After winning their way out of the play-in tournament last season before a first-round exit against the Phoenix Suns, the Lakers were hoping for an easier path this time around. How much more difficult might Davis' absence make things? Let's take a look.
Replacing The Brow
Losing a player as good as Davis is always a challenge, but it's exacerbated by the Lakers' depth issues after trading for Russell Westbrook during the offseason. Davis' absence leaves Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan as the only veteran centers on the roster. (The Lakers also have rookie Jay Huff, who is on a two-way contract and made just his second NBA appearance on Friday.)
Making matters worse, Howard is currently subject to the NBA's health and safety protocols, likely sidelining him at least another few days. As a result, prepare for a heavy dose of LeBron James playing center over the next few games, which could be particularly problematic in Tuesday's matchup against the Suns and Deandre Ayton.
According to NBA Advanced Stats, James has played 97 minutes this season with none of Davis, Howard and Jordan on the court. More than half of those (56) have come in the past five games, as Vogel experiments with smaller lineups to put more shooting and scoring on the court. Although James has been more effective individually as a center -- averaging 28.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 7.4 assists per 36 minutes, all up from his season-long marks -- the Lakers' offense hasn't been particularly potent overall, and they have a modest plus-0.8 net rating.
The biggest concern for the Lakers' small frontcourts in the short term will be finding enough perimeter players to fill out a rotation. Wings Avery Bradley, Talen Horton-Tucker, Malik Monk and Austin Reaves are all unavailable subject to the protocols. That left the Lakers on Friday relying heavily on Isaiah Thomas, making his Lakers debut after being signed to a 10-day hardship contract. The Lakers aren't alone in being affected by COVID-19 right now, but Davis' injury amplifies the situation.
At some point, the Lakers will get more options with the returns of forward Trevor Ariza and Kendrick Nunn. Ariza, in particular, will help fill in at power forward next to James in small frontcourts, a spot where Carmelo Anthony is currently the only legitimate option.
More wear and tear on LeBron?
Besides seeding, the other potential problem with losing Davis for an extended stretch is the pressure it puts on James. Not only will he likely have to play more against bigger frontcourt opponents, but James also might end up logging heavier minutes to keep the Lakers' offense afloat.
Adding Westbrook was intended to help the Lakers stay potent without Davis and James after both stars were sidelined for a month in the second half of 2020-21, during which the team went 7-9. That hasn't proved the case.
During 2020-21, lineups without both James and Davis ranked in the 15th percentile of all lineups in offensive rating and had a minus-3.2 net rating, according to Cleaning the Glass, which factors out garbage time. This season, such lineups with Westbrook have been outscored by 2.8 points per 100 possessions and rank in the 30th percentile in offensive rating.
Not coincidentally, James has logged heavy minutes in two of the three Lakers games without Davis this season, all of them wins. James played 43-plus minutes in an overtime win at the Indiana Pacers last month and 37 minutes in a home victory over the lowly Orlando Magic earlier this month, though Vogel was able to limit him to 35 minutes in a blowout win at the Oklahoma City Thunder. Playing without Davis will make it that much tougher to rest James during the next month.
Favorable schedule -- to a point
The good news for the Lakers is that, after splitting their first two games on this road trip, they will be heading home following Sunday's matchup with the Chicago Bulls. Additionally, with COVID-19 affecting rosters around the NBA, some of L.A.'s upcoming games no longer look as difficult as they did on paper.
For Sunday's contest, the Bulls have listed four players (including All-Star guard Zach LaVine) as unavailable due to health and safety protocols and a fifth (reserve Matt Thomas) as doubtful. The Lakers' Christmas Day matchup against the Nets also could be far less daunting with Brooklyn stars Kevin Durant and James Harden both subject to the protocols.
After Christmas, six of the Lakers' next eight games will be against teams that are currently below .500. However, there are two important caveats when it comes to the schedule.
First, the Lakers again find themselves in a position of needing to take advantage -- something they haven't been able to do thus far. The Lakers are just 11-8 thus far against below-.500 teams, putting them 18th in the league. They've been relatively better against above-.500 opponents, going 5-6 to rank ninth in the NBA.
Second, if Davis' injury sidelines him beyond the next four weeks, the schedule starts getting more difficult. We're a little less than five weeks away from the Lakers beginning a six-game road trip that includes stops at Brooklyn, the Miami Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers. The Lakers will surely hope Davis is back for those tilts.
Assuming his reevaluation in four weeks goes well, Davis should be back not long after the season's midpoint, leaving plenty of time for a second-half run if the team can take care of business at home. Yet the Lakers have already lost much of their margin for error.
A top-four seed already looks unlikely for the Lakers, leaving them little comfort to avoid the play-in tournament. A drop-off of a couple of wins in Davis' absence could be the difference between the Lakers resting up and preparing for their opening-round matchup or, like last season, having to win a game to get there and putting more mileage on their stars.