It's Friday -- time for 10 NBA things I like and dislike! This week, we explore one-man defense from Joel Embiid, make pleas for Nikola Vucevic and Karl-Anthony Towns and reveal a unheralded skill that Stephen Curry is quietly passing along.
1. The majesty of Joel Embiid's defense
Embiid would be a long shot right now to appear on Defensive Player of the Year or Most Valuable Player ballots. The first four MVP spots are Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic in some order -- leaving one spot for a bundle of candidates (including Embiid). Draymond Green and Rudy Gobert are front-runners for Defensive Player of the Year, with tons of guys in the fray -- including some new perimeter candidates in Mikal Bridges and Alex Caruso.
Embiid has missed 11 games. He has battled injuries and COVID-19, so it's natural he hasn't been the same unstoppable player -- mostly due to a drop-off in midrange shooting. (That jumper has looked better over the last week. Embiid weaponizing it last season was maybe the biggest reason he vaulted up the MVP conversation.)
But Embiid remains one of sports' majestic forces -- a big man with soft feet, and a cagey defensive IQ that gets overshadowed because fans gravitate to the sheer spectacle of his size and power.
Like Gobert, Embiid is a one-man defensive architecture -- with a more telegenic appetite for gladiatorial confrontation. Even as Embiid finds his form, the Sixers have allowed only 105.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor -- and almost 112 when he sits. That with-Embiid figure would rank fourth among all teams. Opponents are shooting 7.7% worse around the basket when Embiid plays, per Cleaning The Glass.
As has long been the case with the Jazz and Gobert, the Sixers allow fewer 3s and shots at the rim with Embiid on the floor -- and many more long 2s. With Gobert and Embiid barricading the rim, other defenders stick to shooters. It's not just that Gobert and Embiid are elite rim protectors; there are shot-blockers who don't radiate the same all-court impact.
It's how huge, fast, and smart they are -- how much space they seem to cover. They appear to be everywhere, blotting out every option. When you think you've spotted one, it's only because they've baited you:
My god, what an image. Shake Milton shades Donovan Mitchell left. That opens a driving lane. Embiid knows his teammates might overreact. He extends his arms and shouts: I got this. Stay home.
Mitchell encroaches for a cat-and-mouse game. Just as Mitchell might loft a floater, Embiid stabs at him. Embiid plants on his front foot so he can explode back to Hassan Whiteside if Mitchell tries the lob. Mitchell doesn't dare. He zooms into a spin, hoping to find daylight. Nope. Embiid steps forward, arm up. Mitchell searches for a passing lane, crouching to see if he might sneak something underneath Embiid's arms. Nope. Embiid bends with him.
Mitchell's fader misses. Embiid then goes straight up, making himself as big as he can get, and forces Whiteside into a longer hook.
Philly is 12-7 with Embiid available, and 3-8 without him. That record, and sequences like the one above, bring a tinge of sorrow at the prospect of a wasted peak Embiid season. Philly can't contend with a zero from Ben Simmons' roster spot. Expect trade talk to heat up.
2. De'Aaron Fox has to decide what he wants to be
Surprise: The Kings stink at defense! They're 28th in points allowed per possession, and haven't improved since Alvin Gentry replaced Luke Walton as head coach.
Sacramento has allowed 116.4 points per 100 possessions with Fox on the floor -- and just 97.9 when he sits! The first number is 2.5 points worse than the league's leakiest defense. The second is stingier than Golden State's league-best outfit!
Fox is the victim of luck in both directions. Opponents have been icy from deep -- 31.7% -- when he rests. They have shot well from everywhere when he plays.
Fox is skinny, and carries a huge load on offense. A lot of young-ish point guards who fit that profile are glaring minuses on defense. (Ja Morant is a current example; the Grizzlies have morphed into a defensive juggernaut without him.) Most of them improve as stakes rise.
For now, Fox has to reach the point where he isn't imploding entire possessions. He too often plays in an upright stance with his arms to his sides -- easy prey for blow-bys. He either smacks into picks, or takes circuitous routes around them -- conceding easy jumpers, or falling too far behind on drives.
When things get physical, he flutters away like tissue blowing in the wind:
Fox gives up in the post against marginal size mismatches, gambling for reach-around steals instead of fighting.
The Kings' issues on defense go way beyond Fox, of course. Fox has the tools to be a solid defender. He seems to care about the right things. The Kings -- with play-in dreams baby! -- need more now.
3. Trae Young's one-handed disguise
At what point did you realize that was a pass? Here's how I reacted: Oh my god, why is Trae Young's layup traveling backward? Oh, wait.
Young can gather and shoot without using his left hand. The defender backtracking with Clint Capela sometimes has no idea what Young is doing -- layup or pass? -- until the play is over. When you can't decide what to guard, you end up guarding nothing.
Young can quick-shoot layups from unconventional angles:
It hasn't gotten much play because of Atlanta's mediocre record, but Young is having his best season. The Hawks have scored 1.13 points per possession when Young shoots out of a pick-and-roll, or passes to a teammate who fires -- fourth among 96 ball handlers who have run at least 200 such plays, per Second Spectrum.
That is the fattest number of Young's career, despite Young drawing shooting fouls at his lowest rate ever. The new officiating dictates have affected Young in style, but not substance. Atlanta has scored 116 points per 100 possessions with Young on the floor and 99 when he sits. That's larger than the difference between the league's best and worst offenses, and it's not a new trend.
His 3-point rate is back up after dipping too low early. He needs to take more Curry-style step-back 3s when he draws big men on switches.
There is a school of thought that teams that depend on one player to run their offense have no clue what to do when that player rests. It's too early to say that is why Atlanta's offense dies without Young. Backup point guard has been a weak spot some seasons. Injuries torpedoed plans to build more balanced rotations.
But it's worth monitoring. That's another reason that first play -- the ultra-disguised lob to Capela -- stuck out: Young enters the action in a sprint, after a Bogdan Bogdanovic pick-and-roll on the other side. Young and the Hawks would benefit from more roving variety.
4. Two Spurs, findings some verve on offense
The Spurs are 6-4 since starting 4-13, butting into the play-in race. Their midrangy offense ranks eighth in points per possession over that 6-4 stretch.
Dejounte Murray -- averaging 18-8-8, his 3-pointer creeping toward league average -- sparks everything. He should be on the fringes of the All-Star conversation. (A fun debate you probably didn't anticipate facing: Given their respective contracts, whom would you rather have -- Murray or Fox?)
Lonnie Walker IV and Tre Jones have shown new life. Devin Vassell is a consistent plus. The whole team is fun -- playing fast, pinging the ball around in the half court.
But credit two of San Antonio's more selfless, defense-first starters for showing needed aggression:
Early in the season, White would have circled out. He's hunting shots now: White has jacked about 17 attempts per 36 minutes since Nov. 22, up from 12 before. He's averaging 19 points in that stretch, tops on the team. His free throws are up. He's even flashed a slick lefty floater.
Self-creation from Jakob Poeltl is found money, and the Spurs are finding more of it:
That is not exactly pretty, but it works. Poeltl is busting out the occasional quarterback keeper fake handoff too. He and White have a nice chemistry on the pick-and-roll, and Poeltl's finishing on that play has gotten more varied and artful.
He's averaging 12.3 points, up from 8.6 last season, on 62% shooting.
Bad news: Poeltl 's bricking from the line again, resuscitating the unwatchable Hack-a-Jak gambit.
The Spurs may still end up in the dreaded dead zone: well below .500, but not so far below as to nab a top-five pick.
5. Donovan Mitchell, superstar -- and a Jazz wrinkle to watch
Mitchell's last eight games: 29 points and 5.3 assists on 55% shooting -- including 43% on 3s. It might be the best regular-season stretch of Mitchell's career -- the perfect blend of explosion, patience, and sophisticated decision-making. He has even thrown accurate lobs to Gobert!
He is so confident attacking the rim, changing pace and clowning defenders with Euro-steppy finishes:
Mitchell is shooting a career-best 66% at the rim. His assist numbers haven't changed -- it's hard to pile up gargantuan assists on a team stacked with playmakers -- but if you watch, you see improved timing and nuance. Utah has scored 1.12 points per possession on shots created directly out of a Mitchell pick-and-roll -- the best mark of his career, and fifth best this season among 96 guys who have run at least 100 such plays, per Second Spectrum.
Mitchell slices through a wide-open floor in that clip because Utah has both Gobert and Whiteside on the bench. It is the kind of drive with which the super-small Clippers escorted Utah out of last season's playoffs. Mimicking LA's center-less alignment was a huge reason behind Utah signing Rudy Gay.
Those groups have been uneven in limited minutes: a net-zero scoring margin and blah efficiency. (Whiteside has been so productive, Utah hasn't felt compelled to play super small.) The Jazz have overcomplicated the offense in those minutes, cluttering the middle with screens, slips, cuts, and other nerdy Jazz stuff. Just give the ball to Mitchell and get the hell out of his way.
The bigger question is whether those groups can survive on defense. Royce O'Neale is a very good defender. Gay is solid. Mitchell can be when he dials in. Is that enough?
Utah is announcing itself as a contender. The Jazz have won eight straight, and are now neck-and-neck with Golden State for the league's best point differential. The points-per-possession gap between their No. 1-ranked offense and the Charlotte Hornets' No. 2-ranked outfit is about the same as the distance from Charlotte to league average.
Utah's offense should be almost immune to prolonged postseason slumps. This is the best team of the Mitchell-Gobert era.
6. The Nuggets, shooting themselves in the foot
It feels icky nit-picking Michael Malone given how many players are missing, but I'm surprised the Nuggets are running out full bench mobs -- and risking any minutes with both Nikola Jokic and Will Barton on the bench. Denver is losing games in three-minute stints. The Jokic on-court/off-court splits are comical.
The Nuggets have mauled opponents by 12.5 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor, and lost non-Jokic minutes by 16.2 per 100 possessions. It is only kind of exaggerating to say the Nuggets perform like the greatest team ever with Jokic, and the worst team ever without him.
Jokic's individual numbers are bonkers. If he's not in your MVP conversation -- and not in some token "you have to give him a look for the No. 4 spot" way -- you're doing it wrong.
Since Michael Porter Jr. went out with back issues, the Nuggets are minus-78 in 198 minutes with both Barton and Jokic sitting, per NBA.com. Denver has been terrible on both ends in those minutes, so maybe there's nothing it could do. JaMychal Green is shooting 22% on 3s as Jokic's backup. Denver seems to prefer the intriguing Zeke Nnaji at power forward.
Barton is not some ace creator, but he's fast north-south -- and gives reserve-heavy groups a fighting chance to create something from nothing late in the clock.
This is just sad. Denver was my pick to win the West last season after the Aaron Gordon trade, and nine months later it is fighting to stay at .500.
7. The confounding turnovers of Karl-Anthony Towns
Dial down the madness, KAT!
Towns loves him an overhead laser when a bounce pass would do. This is most evident (and harmful) in the post, where Towns still has trouble navigating double-teams.
Towns is a good passer. He reads layers of defense. He knows where passes should go; it's the "when" and "how" that get him. He outsmarts himself. If anything, Towns is too aware of encroaching help; he'll pick up his dribble before the help commits, and slingshot the cross-court pass that would have been the correct one had Towns drawn help rotations all the way.
Towns has turned it over on 20% of his post-ups -- fourth worst among 71 guys with at least 20 post touches, per Second Spectrum.
Towns is a case study in how loosened zone defenses have made posting up so difficult under anything but ideal circumstances. Minnesota is stocked with hounding defenders who can't shoot and great shooters who struggle on defense. Every lineup choice is an extreme cost-benefit analysis.
Each additional non-shooter makes help-and-recover rotations easier during Towns post-ups -- clouding Towns' decision-making, and narrowing his passing lanes and margin for error. Towns has passed on about 35% of his post-ups -- the eighth-highest "pass rate" among those 71 players. Towns is a gifted scorer, but defenses are turning him into a Draymond Green-style facilitator.
In related news, more teams are defending Towns with quicker power forwards -- slotting their centers on Jarred Vanderbilt. The idea is that faster players can chase Towns off the arc. The downside is gifting Towns a size mismatch, but defenses feel they can just double him and coax turnovers -- or jumpers from non-shooters.
Minnesota is 25th in turnover rate, negating the advantage it should derive from forcing the most turnovers on defense. (It is also last in defensive rebounding rate, and fourth in offensive rebounding. Vanderbilt looks like he's playing Slamball. God, I love how strange this team is.)
8. Go up strong, Vooch!
Be patient with Nikola Vucevic's season-long shooting slump. He's finding his way on a revamped roster, and coming back from COVID-19. The threat of his jumper has value even when he's missing; he drags opposing bigs away from the rim, opening the paint for Chicago's slicing guards.
He's dishing 3.6 dimes -- right around his peak averages -- despite playing with three and sometimes four capable distributors. Playing through Vucevic gives Chicago a different look -- a method of generating easier shots for Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Lonzo Ball. Vucevic has been active on defense.
Chicago has outscored opponents with Vucevic on the floor, though it has lost (barely) the minutes he and LaVine play without DeRozan. (Lineups featuring DeRozan and several reserves -- and sometimes Ball -- have blasted opponents.)
That said, the Bulls aren't a threat to win the East with Vucevic shooting 34% on 3s and 43% on 2s. Vucevic's track record suggests an uptick soon.
Free throws are slump-proof, but Vucevic has never earned very many. He's averaging 1.8 attempts per game.
He's more finesse than power. That's fine. But there are moments when Vucevic could bulldoze to free points:
Vucevic burrows inside Jarrett Allen, but surrenders the advantage. What happens if he powers up? Maybe Allen swats him. Maybe Vucevic misses a tough layup. This is close to a 50/50 call, but it's emblematic of Vucevic's approach.
Vucevic cannot let Darius Garland off the hook, even with Cleveland's shot-blocking Wonder Twins -- Allen and the preternatural Evan Mobley -- looming. At least take one more dribble to see what passes might open up.
9. Something to keep an eye on in Boston
Bookmark this play from the Celtics' emphatic win Tuesday over the Milwaukee Bucks:
Boston busted out four Jaylen Brown-Jayson Tatum pick-and-rolls in that game -- the same number it had run the entire season prior, per Second Spectrum. Marcus Smart set nine ball screens, his fourth-highest single-game total this season.
That doesn't feel like a coincidence, coming after a disastrous road trip and whispers about the staying power of the Brown-Tatum partnership. (The read here is that it remains very unlikely Boston trades Brown this season unless some unknown superstar unexpectedly becomes available. Everyone wants two-way wings who create their own shots. Brown and Tatum may not complement each other perfectly, but you probably tweak the roster around them before breaking them up. They're still young! I don't see a Brown-Simmons swap as workable unless Philly adds major pieces.)
Putting Boston's core wings in two-man actions jolts them into fast-moving cooperation -- slipped screens, touch passes, give-and-gos. Those plays generate switches, and hand Brown and especially Tatum exploitable mismatches.
10. A young Golden State guard continuing an important tradition
As we celebrate Stephen Curry's ascent to his rightful spot atop the all-time made 3s chart, please appreciate one subtle virtue: his commitment to last-second heaves, and refusal to engage in the beyond lame "wait until the buzzer sounds and then heave" tease -- a selfish bit of anti-entertainment stemming from deep-seated statistical insecurity.
Risking heaves has chipped a teensy dent in Curry's 3-point percentage. It's worth discussing whether the NBA should wipe away missed heaves so as to encourage guys to take them, but players navigate the rules as they are. Curry heaving shows he cares more about his team than his numbers, but the beauty of his chasing 75-foot rainbows of glory goes beyond that small sacrifice.
Curry is a showman. He understands the tingly anticipation fans feel as the heave is airborne and vaguely on track: Is he going to pull this off? Nail it, and those fans have a lasting memory.
But it's also how Curry takes these as if he expects them to go in. There is no desperation -- no flailing headlong rushes, no from-the-kneecaps hurling.
Curry knows exactly how many dribbles the clock affords. He stays calm and upright, eyes on the rim. His shooting motion is almost normal. Curry practices heaves. He knows he can make them, and it's not false bravado.
Curry has taught younger teammates the sanctity of this tradition. Witness Jordan Poole's spot-on Curry impression:
Poole missed. But did he, really?