What does guard Kyrie Irving's return as a part-time player mean to the Brooklyn Nets?
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Friday that the turbulence of the ongoing NBA season -- surely related to the seven Brooklyn players unable to play currently due to the league's COVID-19 health & safety protocols, as well as the heavy minutes logged by star Kevin Durant -- has caused the organization to rethink its stance on having the unvaccinated Irving be part of the team while he's ineligible to play in home games. Irving is set to rejoin team activities in preparation for his 2021-22 debut.
New York City had previously clarified that the city's vaccination requirement for sporting events does not prevent Irving from practicing with the Nets at their private Brooklyn practice facility, and his availability for games outside of New York has never been in question.
With the resurgence of the pandemic making player availability a question mark from game to game, the idea of Nets coach Steve Nash managing separate rotations for home and road games no longer seems as problematic as it did in October.
How much can having Irving half the time help Brooklyn? Let's take a look.
Shot creation, shooting, surprising issues for Nets
After adding guard James Harden to their core of Durant and Irving last season, Brooklyn never figured creating good shots would be a concern. When building their roster, the Nets reasonably placed more emphasis on being able to finish shots and contribute on the defensive end over additional shot creators. Irving's absence and Harden's sluggish start have exposed that limitation elsewhere on the roster.
Even with Harden operating at a level below his usual standard, Brooklyn's offense has still been OK when he's on the floor and Durant is out. According to Cleaning the Glass data, those lineups have scored right about league average on a per-possession basis and outscored opponents by 3.1 points per 100 possessions.
Take both Durant and Harden off the court and things get ugly. In 84 minutes where guard Patty Mills has played without either All-Star -- indicative of competitive game situations -- the Nets have managed just 93.1 points per 100 possessions with a minus-23.2 net rating, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
Mills has found himself in an unexpected starting role to help compensate for Brooklyn's lack of shooting, which also figured to be a strength. Not only have the Nets played without Irving, a career 39% 3-point shooter, they've also been without shooting specialist Joe Harris (44%) since mid-November due to an ankle injury that required surgery. Harris isn't likely to return until January at the earliest.
Without Harris and Irving, Brooklyn has ranked just 23rd in the NBA in 3-point attempt rate after finishing ninth last season, while the Nets' 3-point percentage has tumbled from 39% (2nd) to 36% (10th).
The absences of Irving and Harris have caused Nash to turn to rookie guard Cam Thomas as a rotation regular. Although Thomas has played better in extended minutes recently, he's making just 24% of his 2.3 3-point attempts per game and is posting a .469 true shooting percentage. Giving those minutes to Irving in road games would be a massive upgrade for Brooklyn.
Durant's minutes a concern
Durant has logged heavy minutes in his second season back from an Achilles rupture during the 2019 NBA Finals. Durant's 37.0 MPG rank fourth in the NBA and mark his highest average since 2013-14, when he was age 25.
Although Durant has downplayed concern about his minutes, expressing his desire to play as much as possible, Nash has repeatedly indicated he would like to reduce Durant's playing time.
"I don't know we can continue to lean on him the way we have," Nash said before Durant played 39 minutes Thursday. "It doesn't feel right.
"I know he's enjoying it. ... But, at the same time, it's not safe or sustainable to lean on him like that. There's gonna be a lot of consideration and we'll have to figure out ways to give him breaks."
With Irving available much of last season, Durant averaged a reasonable 33 MPG. Although that average was partially affected by a series of injuries that sidelined Durant, he also played more than 39 minutes just six times in 35 regular-season games -- as many times as he's reached that mark since Thanksgiving this season.
Irving's impact could take a while
As badly as the Nets need immediate help with several key players unavailable, including Harden, Irving won't likely make an immediate impact. As Wojnarowski notes, Irving needs five consecutive days of negative COVID-19 tests to rejoin practice, making it unlikely he'll get in enough work to participate in Brooklyn's upcoming three-game road trip that includes a Christmas Day matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers.
After that, the Nets play just two road games through Jan. 15, giving Irving little opportunity to contribute while he remains unvaccinated. More realistically, Irving will give Brooklyn a lift when the team's schedule turns road-heavy in the back half of January. The Nets play 11 of 14 games away from home, giving Irving an extended period to acclimate to the roster.
Certainly, Irving's presence will remain awkward for all the reasons that initially convinced Brooklyn the team was better off without him on a part-time basis. There are week-long spans throughout the second half of the season where, barring a change to the New York City guidelines, Irving will be ineligible to play.
Despite Irving's absence, the Nets have managed to build a 2.5-game lead atop the Eastern Conference. If his return can help Brooklyn maintain the top spot in the East without overtaxing Durant, it's understandable the team changed its mind.