Who are the most intriguing prospects to watch when the 2020-21 NBA season tips off Tuesday?
This year's rookie class is dealing with an unusually challenging transition to the pro game, with many of them not having played in a real game in more than 285 days. At the same time, these players don't have the traditional benefits of summer leagues, full training camps or a typical preseason.
Still, every season there are surprise players in the rookie and sophomore classes. Here are my lists of prospects I'm watching closely, including the most fascinating rookies; the players most likely to exceed their draft slots; and sophomores who could break out or struggle to answer big questions.
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Six rookies I'm watching most closely
Last week, I covered the six rookies I think will have the greatest on-court impact this year. Here's my list of six more rookies I'm most fascinated by -- for a variety of reasons.
James Wiseman | C | Golden State Warriors
Will Wiseman show flashes that he is indeed the Warriors' center of the future, like his impressive tools suggest? He'll get his fair share of lobs, putbacks and highlight blocks, while being in an ideal development situation to hone in on a few elite strengths and expand his game from there. But Wiseman hasn't played a competitive 5-on-5 game since Nov. 12, 2019; and like most young bigs, he still has quite a bit of room to grow as a pick-and-roll defender and a decision-maker. Is it too much to ask of a 19-year-old with three games of collegiate experience to play a key role as a starter on a playoff contender in the Western Conference?
Facundo Campazzo | G | Denver Nuggets
Campazzo is not your typical rookie at age 29, but he should have as big of an impact on winning as anyone in this class given his experience with Real Madrid, tough defense and electric playmaking. It wouldn't shock me if the 5-foot-10 Argentine point guard works his way into the starting lineup or carves out a J.J. Barea-type role. Despite his size, Campazzo has great feet, quick hands and a never-ending motor. Offensively, he is a magician with the basketball, long considered one of the best pick-and-roll players in the world.
Given his court vision and a career 36% mark from 3-point range on almost 2,000 attempts, Campazzo fits perfectly alongside Jamal Murray, allowing Murray to focus more on scoring than playmaking. Don't count out Campazzo, a longtime teammate of Luka Doncic, as a dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate.
Killian Hayes | G | Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are all-in on the 6-foot-5 French guard, putting the ball in the 19-year-old's hands and living with the results. There's no questioning Hayes' long-term talent as a jumbo lead guard who can pick defenses apart with his passing and craft. But is he dynamic enough with the ball and a consistent enough shooter to play a featured role as a rookie? And much more importantly, will he show signs of being Detroit's lead guard of the future given some of the lofty expectations placed on him leading up to the draft?
Patrick Williams | F | Chicago Bulls
The Bulls took a talent swing drafting Williams at No. 4 ahead of Isaac Okoro and Deni Avdija. At 6-foot-8, 225 pounds, the flashes Williams showed at Florida State and during his prep career were eye-opening, looking like some combination of Jaylen Brown, Kawhi Leonard and OG Anunoby if you focused on his strengths. But the production wasn't always consistent for the second-youngest player in the draft. Given the disparity between his talent and his production, I want to see what kind of NBA potential Williams demonstrates with Chicago, because the upside is tantalizing. Those who spent time around his pre-draft training in Los Angeles rave about his long-term upside and approach to the game.
Aleksej Pokusevski | F | Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder went to great lengths to make sure they moved high up enough in the draft to ensure they landed the sweet-shooting 7-footer. Pokusevski will be an interesting case study for scouts, as he played just 11 games last season at one of the lower levels in Europe, and he has long battled inconsistency in the motor and durability department. Is Pokusevski truly the next unicorn prospect who can shoot it on the move, handle and pass like a guard and exhibit great timing for blocks? Or is he closer to the next Dragan Bender?
I've long viewed Pokusevski as somewhat similar to Bol Bol -- a rare prospect with incredible highlights who ultimately might be best in a situational role because of shortcomings with his physicality. But if Pokusevski is able to play an actual role this year as the youngest player in the NBA while showing flashes of intrigue, the Thunder will have to feel great about acquiring the Serbian big man.
Devin Vassell | G/F | San Antonio Spurs
Can the analytics darling prove he is a candidate to be the Spurs' wing of the future? His defensive activity and shooting potential at 6-foot-7 give him the ingredients to become a useful 3-and-D wing in the Mikal Bridges mold, with more shot-creation upside at the same stage. As he did with Kawhi Leonard, assistant coach Chip Engelland figures to play a role in making Vassell's elongated release more reliable from NBA distance. Head coach Gregg Popovich will be drawn to Vassell's off-ball instincts and disruptive style of defense, which could earn him more playing time than most Spurs rookies.
Six rookies most likely to outplay their draft slot
Extending out beyond the top 20, here are six prospects who I expect to outproduce where they were selected.
Precious Achiuwa | F/C | Miami Heat | No. 20 overall
A projected lottery pick for most of the season, the Heat got excellent value with Achiuwa, who is in an ideal situation to play the small-ball big spot. Achiuwa's biggest question mark has been his unwillingness to accept a role as a high-energy center as opposed to operating as a big wing. He is now playing behind the living proof of how successful that model can be in Bam Adebayo. At 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, Achiuwa was maybe the most dynamic roller in the entire draft. He has great feet and is comfortable taking slower-footed bigs off the bounce. His defensive versatility is perfect for how the Heat like to play, and he'll benefit from having shooters playing alongside him. If Erik Spoelstra can get Achiuwa to embrace his role, the Heat will have acquired outstanding value.
Tyrese Maxey | G | Philadelphia 76ers | No. 21
I had Maxey graded as a top-10 prospect on draft night, and I think he landed in a perfect situation in Philly. Although not always known for playing rookies heavy minutes, Doc Rivers should be drawn to Maxey's energy, shotmaking and defensive toughness. The biggest pre-draft question surrounding Maxey was whether he could evolve into a lead guard given his size at around 6-foot-3. But with Ben Simmons as the primary playmaker and Joel Embiid demanding touches on the block, Maxey can focus on things he is capable of doing -- knocking down catch-and-shoot 3s, attacking closeouts, playing second-side pick-and-roll and defending point guards. We'll see how long it takes for Maxey to earn real minutes on a Sixers team with pressure to make a deep playoff run and Shake Milton and Seth Curry ahead of him, but it should only be a matter of time before he proves his value.
Payton Pritchard | G | Boston Celtics | No. 26
While the Celtics have no shortage of ball handlers, I think Pritchard will work his way onto the floor because of his shooting, ability to play on or off the ball and defensive toughness. Jeff Teague is the clear backup point guard behind Kemba Walker, but Pritchard gives Boston a different element as a shot-maker, and he fits in multiple-guard lineups. His no fear mentality makes him playable right away for the Celtics, and he reminds me a bit of Fred VanVleet.
Malachi Flynn | G | Toronto Raptors | No. 29
The Raptors hit a home run with Flynn, who is perfectly equipped to step in as Toronto's backup point guard, even fitting alongside VanVleet or Kyle Lowry for stretches because of his shooting ability. With a high motor on the defensive end and a winning pedigree, Flynn fits the Raptors' culture. His 92 games of collegiate experience, strong feel for the game and pick-and-roll savvy will allow him to run the show in important games. His lack of elite size figures to limit him some as a defender and finisher early on, but he is quick-footed with great hands and instincts defensively -- and with a feathery floater offensively.
Theo Maledon | G | Oklahoma City Thunder | No. 34
I crowned Deni Avdija the steal of the draft after the Wizards nabbed him at No. 9. Maledon is a close second. Once a projected top-10 pick, Maledon's inconsistent role in France caused him to slide to the second round, which shocked most international scouts, some of whom had him rated higher than Killian Hayes. Not only does Maledon have the on-court maturity to play right away, but he also has a fairly clear pathway with OKC. He can learn from George Hill in the interim, while being groomed as a potential backcourt partner to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as Maledon's ability to play with or without the ball fits perfectly alongside the face of the Thunder franchise. Maledon doesn't play a flashy style, but he is as dialed in as any teenager I've ever evaluated, which should earn him early minutes.
Nico Mannion | G | Golden State Warriors | No. 48
A projected lottery pick entering the season, Mannion slipped all the way to No. 48. But the 19-year-old point guard couldn't have landed in a better situation with the opportunity to learn from Stephen Curry and Steve Kerr. Without much firepower in the Warriors' backcourt outside of Curry, it wouldn't shock me if Mannion won the backup point guard job because of his passing ability, pick-and-roll feel and open-court game. Mannion has a chance to be the Warriors' next second-round steal.
Second-year rookies to watch
We often overlook the redshirt rookies who missed the previous season due to injury. Here are two names I'll be tracking:
Chuma Okeke | F | Orlando Magic
It's easy to forget that Okeke was a rising lottery-caliber prospect on a loaded Auburn team before tearing his ACL in the Sweet 16. It's been over 18 months since that game, and Okeke appears ready to carve out a role with Orlando. Still only 22, Okeke is a 6-foot-7 stretch-4 with a strong positional handle, great feel for the game and sharp defensive instincts to go along with a 7-foot wingspan.
Dylan Windler | F | Cleveland Cavaliers
Outside of two G League games, Windler missed his entire rookie campaign due to a stress reaction in his lower leg, yet he appears fully healthy and ready to fill a role on the wing for the Cavs. Windler was one of the most productive and efficient players in college basketball during his senior year, averaging 21.6 points, 10.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists while shooting 66% from 2 and 43% from 3. At 6-foot-8, Windler is a fluid competitor and a knockdown shooter with a strong all-around feel for the game as a cutter, passer and rebounder.
Six sophomores I'm watching closely
We know Ja Morant and Zion Williamson are poised for big sophomore campaigns. Rookie breakouts such as Tyler Herro also should continue gaining steam. But here are a few second-year players I'm tracking.
RJ Barrett | G | New York Knicks
Among players who started over 50 games last season, Barrett finished last in true shooting percentage (47.9%), and he didn't exactly prove to Knicks fans that he is the young star they've been waiting for. All eyes will be on Barret's jump shot this season, as that's his clear swing skill and the key to him becoming a more efficient offensive player. Is a lob-catching, floor-spacing big man such as Obi Toppin exactly what Barrett needed to unlock his pick-and-roll game? We'll find out.
Darius Garland | G | Cleveland Cavaliers
I viewed Garland as a top-five prospect in the 2019 draft based on many in-person evaluations dating back to his USA Basketball days as a 14-year-old. Despite a tough rookie season, I'm still bullish on the 20-year-old's skill set as a pick-and-roll point guard. The addition of Isaac Okoro gives Garland another target in transition while also helping him pick up the slack on the defensive end of the floor. I'm expecting a bounce-back year.
Sekou Doumbouya | F | Detroit Pistons
As was often the case at the youth level, Doumbouya is one of the more perplexing young players in the NBA. In one game, he looks like a clear starter, yet in the next, he is unplayable. Doumbouya's focus level has wavered drastically over the course of his brief NBA career, and I'm curious to see if the new front office in Detroit has the same affinity for his upside. At just 19 years old with excellent tools, he has value in a 3-and-D combo forward role as a transition finisher, cutter, straight-line driver and spot shooter with the tools to make plays defensively, if he can find some semblance of consistency.
Talen Horton-Tucker | G | Los Angeles Lakers
One of the more unique players I've evaluated, with the length and frame of a big yet the game of a combo guard, Horton-Tucker has put the NBA on notice with his preseason play. His ability to put pressure on the rim and finish with finesse, shoot it off the catch or the bounce, create for others and use his length to make plays defensively has given this veteran Lakers team a youthful jolt. At the very least, the 20-year-old looks like he has carved out a spot in the rotation as a microwave shot-creator and energizer. It looks like he has gotten in better shape and polished up his game, and he could be poised for a breakout season.
Bol Bol | C | Denver Nuggets
Bol was one of the stars of the bubble in Orlando, and I'm interested to see whether he can play consistent minutes over the course of an entire season. Bol has always been an incredible talent, but his production has come in spurts. At 7-foot-3 with a smooth shooting stroke, the handle and vision of a wing and excellent shot-blocking instincts, Bol has unicorn potential. I'm curious whether he can develop into more than a situational, change-of-pace big who gives opponents a different look in short spurts because of his spotty durability and shaky defensive motor.
Matt Thomas | G | Toronto Raptors
Far from a young prospect at 26, Thomas begins his second NBA season with a fair amount of momentum and should play a consistent role as a sharpshooter with Toronto's bench unit. Among players to attempt at least 100 3s last season, the 6-foot-4 guard led the NBA at 46.8%, finishing just ahead of JJ Redick and Seth Curry. A tough defender who can be a playmaker, Thomas should become more of a weapon for Nick Nurse this season. Thomas hasn't taken the most traditional route after going undrafted out of Iowa State and spending two years in Spain, but he looks ready to make a jump this year in playing a Redick type of role, potentially separating himself as one of the best shooters in the NBA.
Mike Schmitz is an NBA draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.