Last week's reveal of the 2020-21 NBA schedule confirmed one important wrinkle to this unusual season: There's going to be a massive rest and recovery disparity that could factor heavily into the final standings.
Since the league expanded to its current 16-team playoff format in 1984, the average gap between the end of the NBA Finals and opening night has been 141 days. This season, that time off has been cut nearly in half, down to 71 days.
Teams and superstars who advance deep into the postseason always face an offseason rest disadvantage as compared to the lottery squads, but this year that difference has never been so drastic. Some of the league's brightest stars haven't played in a real game for more than 10 months. Others will make their season debuts after less than three months away.
Here's a look at the striking time-off gaps and what they might mean.
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Fatigue in Lakerland
Let's start with the champs. The Los Angeles Lakers last played on Oct. 11, and they will return to regular-season action on Dec. 22. That's hardly even enough time to pump up the banana boat.
The warp-speed turnaround will have real consequences, especially for older players such as LeBron James, who will turn 36 a week after ring night. James is starting his 18th year in the NBA and enters the season as the all-time leader in postseason minutes played. Load management must be a real question for the King this season. James played at an MVP level before the 2019-20 NBA stoppage, and some of that effectiveness has to be credited to his unusually lengthy offseason after the Lakers missed the 2019 playoffs.
James decried load management last season, saying, "My obligation is to play, play for my teammates, and if I'm healthy, then I'm going to play. If Coach sits me out, then I'm not healthy. And it's just that simple."
But James made those remarks before the coronavirus pandemic flipped the world upside down. He has every right to reevaluate his stance. Lakers vice president of basketball ops Rob Pelinka said last month it will be a balancing act managing James' regular-season workload, which makes plenty of sense.
James could very well take it easy early, playing fewer minutes and even missing some games altogether. In empty (or mostly empty) arenas, he won't have to worry about disappointing ticket buyers.
The Lakers built their championship defense through consistent work from the very start of training camp. Developing those habits matters, but having James ready for the postseason is more important for a defending champion. While James' ability to stay healthy is astonishing, the combination of his age, his mileage and this schedule could force him to shift his DNP views.
The rusty squads
While the Lakers and Miami Heat players are facing the quickest turnarounds of their careers, those on other squads haven't played a real game in more than nine months.
The average amount of time off among the 30 teams is a fairly standard 157 days, but the spread from conference finalists to bubble castoffs is massive:
All 22 teams that played in Orlando, Florida, have shorter offseasons than the average NBA finalist in a standard season. All eight teams not included in the restart have at least twice as much time off as that -- and four times more recovery days than the Lakers.
That elongated hiatus comes with its own issues, from conditioning to camaraderie on the floor -- concerns that will only heighten in the face of a shorter and socially distanced preseason slate.
The Atlanta Hawks are a good example of the complexities here. Star guard Trae Young hasn't played in 286 days, and the same goes for much of Atlanta's young core. But key offseason additions Bogdan Bogdanovic (131 days off), Danilo Gallinari (111) and Rajon Rondo (72) were all involved in the restart. With Atlanta facing pressure to make the playoffs under the new play-in system, getting everyone rolling quickly will be crucial.
The rookies
The league's incoming rookie class might be more affected by these layoffs than any other group. While Bradley Beal (287 days off) and Stephen Curry (291) have experience getting themselves ready for NBA action, these newbies are being rushed into action while not having played real hoops in a very long time. It's a wild predicament.
Curry's new teammate James Wiseman was drafted No. 2 overall on Nov. 18. The Golden State Warriors' training camp started only a couple of weeks later, and Wiseman's first game will be 33 days after draft night.
But Wiseman hasn't played in any official competition since Nov. 12, 2019. That's 405 days between his last game at the University of Memphis and his NBA debut. In fact, the Washington Wizards' Deni Avdija (147 days off) will be the only first-round pick not facing at least a 285-day game gap.
Compare that to last season, when top picks Ja Morant and RJ Barrett each had about 200 days off. Those days included 125 days with their NBA teams in between the draft and their regular-season debuts, as well as summer league (for Barrett) and a full training camp to help get caught up.
Without those benefits, this batch of rooks is up against the steepest learning curve in recent memory.
The superstar breakdown
Has there ever been a player of Kevin Durant's caliber with so many questions swirling around him on opening night?
Durant tore his Achilles tendon in June 2019 and was always bound to miss the 2019-20 season, but the pandemic has only complicated and elongated his return to action. When he faces his old Golden State teammates in his Brooklyn Nets debut on Dec. 22, it will come after 560 days in between NBA games. Will he pick back up right where he left off or will it take KD some time to go back to generating nearly automatic buckets?
That's impossible to predict. Don't forget how nasty Durant the scorer can be, but as a 32-year-old coming off a brutal injury, playing for a new team and returning from one of the longest gaps in play we've ever seen, it's fair to ask just how effective Durant will be in his first few months in Brooklyn.
And Durant is by no means alone here. Many of the league's top players are racing to get ready while also recovering from injuries. Miami's Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo both missed time in the Finals in October. Damian Lillard of the Portland Trail Blazers missed his last game in the bubble. Same for the New Orleans Pelicans' Zion Williamson, one of the game's most exciting young players. Coming back from injury is always a challenge, but doing so amid these circumstances is going to be especially difficult to manage.
Using last year's NBArank as a guide, here's a player-by-player time-off breakdown for 30 of the league's top stars:
Of course, there are even more serious worries for the league and its players as this new season begins outside of a bubble while the coronavirus surges across the country. The NFL and college football are dealing with positive COVID-19 tests and weekly game postponements, which has to be a concern for the NBA, as well.
But in a 72-game season in which only the top six seeds in each conference are guaranteed playoff spots, these differences will matter. Star-player availability and team chemistry could be affected both early on and down the stretch as the slog of the schedule and these rest differences accumulate.