Zion Williamson (No. 42) and Ja Morant (No. 93) were the only rookies to make the top 100 of 2019's NBArank, which predicts the best players for the upcoming campaign. The year before, Luka Doncic was the lone first-year player on the list.
It's not a surprise that no rookies made this year's rankings, as scouts and NBA executives have long considered the 2020 draft class to lack true star power at the top. But this is a deep group, with several prospects who could ultimately end up as better players than the consensus top-three picks.
History tells us one or two rookies have a chance to break through as reliable contributors in Year 1. Here are my six favorite candidates to leap into the top 100 by year's end based on their talent and team situation.
There are prospects I'm higher on long term than some of the names listed here -- including the Atlanta Hawks' Onyeka Okongwu -- but projected playing time as a rookie plays a sizable role in breakout potential. That's one reason the Golden State Warriors' James Wiseman doesn't make this list, too.
MORE: A drastic rest disparity could heavily influence the NBA season
LaMelo Ball | G | Charlotte Hornets
Ball should have a higher usage rate than any other rookie, and that's good news for his development and production. While still full of bad habits, he is a prospect who needs close to Trae Young-level freedom to unlock his superpowers as a passer and shotmaker.
Terry Rozier and Devonte' Graham will still have featured roles in the Hornets' backcourt, but that shouldn't diminish Ball's volume. Graham posted a 69.9% effective field goal percentage (eFG) on catch-and-shoot jumpers last season, according to Second Spectrum tracking, and has always been comfortable alongside other playmakers. Rozier might be best suited as a bench bucket-getter. Plus, Ball's size at 6-foot-7 helps him defend 2s and some 3s, allowing James Borrego to utilize Ball, Graham and Rozier in a three-guard front.
Although at his best running the show, Ball also will benefit from having other shot-creators next to him, as he's not yet an efficient half-court scorer. Gordon Hayward gives Ball an experienced All-Star on the wing and will allow him to focus more on facilitating (his best skill) as opposed to jacking up early-clock 30-footers. PJ Washington and Miles Bridges are also nice complementary threats given Ball's skills.
The Hornets' point guard of the future is well-equipped to contend for rookie of the year while making Charlotte relevant in the East.
Anthony Edwards | G | Minnesota Timberwolves
The 2020 top pick had a lot of freedom at Georgia -- with questionable shot selection -- so I imagine he'll have some growing pains on a team with pressure to make a playoff push led by two high-usage offensive players in D'Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns. Yet Edwards is as gifted of a scorer as you'll find when he simplifies his game.
While his efficiency and spot shooting need work, Edwards gives the Timberwolves an infusion of explosive shot creation. He also can shoulder the bulk of scoring duties when Russell and Towns are sitting. Edwards is scary in the open court, and he will have way more room to operate on a spaced NBA floor, allowing him to utilize his tools to get to the rim and live at the free throw line more than he did in college.
Based on talent alone, Edwards has a chance to finish as the most prolific rookie scorer. The questions really come with his defensive effort, fit within a free-flowing offense and ability to consistently make winning plays on both ends. But you can count on him to put up numbers.
Isaac Okoro | F | Cleveland Cavaliers
The former Auburn star is in an excellent situation to prove himself. He'll likely compete for the starting small forward spot in Cleveland, giving him the opportunity to show why he earned Andre Iguodala and young Jimmy Butler comparisons from NBA scouts.
Okoro's case is really about all-around two-way impact, because he is far from a prolific shooter or scorer in the half court. His value comes as a versatile wing who defends close to four positions, makes plays in transition, puts pressure on the rim and moves the ball while making winning plays.
He went 34-0 as a senior in high school and led Auburn to a 24-4 record in games he played, earning SEC All-Defensive team honors in the process. Rookies don't typically shine by advanced metrics, but Okoro has a chance to make a positive on-court impact. If he never suffered a midseason hamstring injury and had the opportunity to play a full SEC and NCAA tournament, most NBA teams likely would have considered Okoro a consensus top-five pick on draft night.
Obi Toppin | F | New York Knicks
Toppin enters the league as the most NBA-ready prospect in his class, coming off an outstanding redshirt sophomore season with Dayton.
Offensively, Toppin has never needed much volume to put up numbers. He gets a lot of easy buckets by simply sprinting the floor, making himself available off the ball, finishing lobs in pick-and-roll and knocking down catch-and-shoot 3s. That figures to fit well alongside RJ Barrett. And Toppin works with either Mitchell Robinson or Julius Randle on the offensive end of the floor, bringing a mature, ball-moving style his teammates will appreciate.
Defense is certainly a concern, especially with Tom Thibodeau as head coach. Toppin is not all that quick guarding the perimeter, and he's a bit too light at 220 pounds to handle NBA centers. He also has a tendency to leak out for dunks as opposed to manning the defensive glass.
But as long as Toppin doesn't get run off the floor defensively, I expect Thibodeau to be drawn to his energetic style and offensive versatility. I still lean Ball as my ROY pick, but Toppin should be heavily in the mix and is a real candidate to crack next year's top 100 with a John Collins-like career trajectory.
Deni Avdija | F | Washington Wizards
My pick as the steal of the draft when he slipped to Washington at No. 9, Avdija joins the NBA ranks with more than 100 games of pro experience to his name and has a strong pathway to early playing time, potentially even starting alongside Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal at the small forward spot.
Westbrook and Beal should command most of the touches in Washington, but Avdija proved he's comfortable playing off of other stars with Maccabi Tel Aviv, while potentially functioning as more of a point-forward type with the second unit. It's his ability to play pick-and-roll and create in the open court that makes him intriguing in the long term at 6-10. Early on, he'll find ways to contribute as a spot shooter, cutter, straight-line driver and ball-mover who can play close to four positions.
Tyrese Haliburton | G | Sacramento Kings
One of the best value picks in the first round, Haliburton was one of my top-five overall prospects and is an excellent fit alongside Kings franchise point guard De'Aaron Fox. Because he's not overly shifty with the ball and hasn't proved himself as much of an isolation or pick-and-roll scorer, Haliburton was always better suited to function alongside a speedy shot-creator like Fox.
In fact, according research by ESPN's Kevin Pelton, Haliburton's projected usage rate of 12.2% is the lowest ever for an incoming rookie with a WARP projection of at least 3.5. Haliburton is at his best with other shot-creators in the lineup, as his shortcomings are more glaring when he's asked to generate the majority of the offense. So long as he's given enough playing time alongside Fox in the starting lineup while manning backup point guard duties, I'd expect Haliburton to shine as a spot-up shooter, ball-mover, pick-and-roll facilitator and transition creator.
Teams will likely target him on the defensive end of the floor given his slight frame, but he's a brilliant off-ball defender and an outstanding positional rebounder. Haliburton should remain an advanced analytics darling with a monster true shooting percentage plus high steal and block rates, earning him real consideration in the top 100 next year.
Mike Schmitz is an NBA draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.