Editor's note: This story was originally published on Nov. 13 and has been updated to reflect the New York Knicks selecting Obi Toppin in the 2020 NBA draft.
Dayton's Obi Toppin was the best player in college basketball last season, with an offensive game built for the modern NBA. He's a ferocious dunker, the son of a New York streetball legend known as "Dunkers Delight." He's an effortless floor spacer and a career 41.7% 3-point shooter. He's an outstanding passer and an efficient scorer, posting a 69.4 true shooting percentage over the course of 64 college games. And he plays with a joy and charisma that appeals to basketball fans everywhere.
On Thursday, Toppin was selected with the No. 8 pick by his hometown New York Knicks.
In a class with so much uncertainty, why wasn't Toppin a candidate for the top pick in the 2020 draft? For starters, 22-year-olds drafted in the top 10 don't have the strongest track record. Outside of Damian Lillard in 2012, here's the rest of the list over the past decade:
2016: Kris Dunn (No. 5), Buddy Hield (No. 6)
2015: Frank Kaminsky (No. 9)
2011: Jimmer Fredette (No. 10)
2010: Wesley Johnson (No. 4), Ekpe Udoh (No. 6 overall)
But Toppin has carved a different path than most prospects his age.
"I'm not going to lie, I didn't think I was going to go anywhere after my high school career," Toppin told ESPN. "I thought I was going to go to [junior college], maybe go to another school after that, maybe go overseas."
And what would Toppin's own mother have said if she had been told five years ago that he would be a top draft prospect? "April Fools'," Roni Toppin responded with a laugh.
Toppin has already made one unlikely leap from forgettable high school prospect to college basketball star. Does his unusual trajectory put him on track for a second jump at the NBA level?
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Toppin's first leap
After spending his first two years of high school in Florida, Toppin was a no-name recruit entering his senior year at Ossining High School in New York. He sprouted from 6-foot-2 to 6-5 before his senior season and flushed the first dunk of his life that same summer.
"When I say he had upside, it was like, oh, this kid can be a Division I player," ESPN recruiting analyst Adam Finkelstein said. "Not, like, he's going to be the best player in college basketball. I would have laughed at somebody for saying that."
With no recruiting traction and a raw offensive game, Toppin was about to commit to a local junior college. On June 29, 2016, a day before Toppin was planning to sign, his godfather, Victor Monaros, came to watch him play at Rucker Park, one of the many places Obi's father had made a name for himself.
"I took [Roni's] phone and basically told the [Monroe College] coach, thanks but no thanks, we're not interested," Monaros said. "I said, 'Give me one week and he'll be at prep school.'"
That's how Toppin ended up at Mount Zion in Baltimore, growing closer to 6-8 and adding muscle through regular access to a full weight room for the first time. After one month of training, Toppin called Roni with a declaration: "Mom, I'm letting you know right now, I'm going to the NBA."
Despite the newfound confidence, Toppin still hadn't capitalized on his glimpses of talent.
"At that point, quite frankly, he was still pretty soft and unproductive," Finkelstein said, referencing a game against highly regarded Brewster Academy during the National Prep Showcase, an annual prep school tournament.
Toppin continued getting stronger, more explosive and skilled. He ended up at Dayton through a Dominican Republic national team connection via Monaros and newly appointed Flyers assistant coach Ricardo Greer. The transition to a more physical game wasn't easy, but after having to redshirt his freshman year due to his academic standing, Toppin began to adapt.
"When he started to gain that extra muscle weight and be more confident in his game, you could see it," Greer said. "I was amazed at how he was able to dominate practice without even having the ball in his hands. The way he ran the floor, his energy, his demeanor, the way he was playing on defense, I was just like, 'Yeah, this kid has a chance to be special.'"
By his redshirt sophomore season, Toppin had grown yet another inch and looked like a completely different player. Finkelstein called it the "top 1% of the 1% in terms of the gains he was able to make after he graduated high school."
Finkelstein said the only physical progression that rivals Toppin belongs to Miami Heat sharpshooter Duncan Robinson, who was 5-7 as a freshman in high school and 6-4, 150 pounds as a high school senior. Like Robinson, Toppin was given the time to develop at his own pace with his prep year, academic redshirt year and freshman season before exploding in his third year at Dayton. Strong coaching, a comfort level in the Atlantic 10 and realistic expectations helped play a role.
From Anthony Davis to CJ McCollum to Giannis Antetokounmpo, many of the league's top players share Toppin's late-bloomer status, though none have really come this drastically late in the process. And that's where the questions really start.
Where can Toppin still improve?
ESPN analyst Kevin Pelton doesn't have Toppin among his top 30 prospects based on his stats-only draft projections. I figured Toppin's lack of a clear defensive position would be the sticking point, but Pelton projects the Dayton forward as an average defender relative to his position.
"His offensive projection is actually below average for a power forward," Pelton said, citing Toppin's free throw and 3-point attempt rates being especially low for a big man -- more on par with role players or specialists rather than lottery picks.
Toppin's logging of significant minutes at center could explain the 3-point rate. I'd expect him to play much more on the perimeter on a spaced floor in the NBA. While he certainly has a high center of gravity that can lead to balance issues, Toppin's early days as a perimeter player should help him evolve into more of a mismatch ball handler. I also believe his best offensive position may end up as a small-ball 5, so long as he can guard the position well enough in spurts.
"Being able to put the ball on the floor a little bit, I feel like I didn't show it a lot at Dayton just because I was just doing what they needed me to do," Toppin said.
Watching Toppin operate in dribble-handoffs provides a window into what he could look like as a ball-handler in the NBA. Known more as a high-flyer, his feel really shines in the nuances of the game. Coaches rave about his screening angles, ability to stay open on rolls and willingness to keep the ball moving.
An ambidextrous passer due to several right wrist injuries growing up, Toppin has the feel and vision to become a solid facilitator for an athletic big. That's where I believe he could show the most growth with NBA-caliber talent around him. Already an excellent post distributor, he understands rotations and how to read defenders bluffing at him after he pops into space.
Pelton's free throw rate concerns have some validity, though, as Toppin is a bit averse to contact and his lack of lower body strength hurts him in a crowd. But on a spaced floor, his strengths should shine.
I see a modern big who can run the floor well, make himself available off the ball with great energy, space vertically and do serious damage as a pick-and-pop threat. A plug-and-play starter at the 4, Toppin also should be able to get away with occasional minutes as a mismatch 5.
How does Toppin project defensively?
This is where I have bigger questions. Toppin's high hips and spotty lateral agility aren't suited for chasing around modern forwards, which he'll have to do in crunch time.
"I don't think I played great defense," Toppin said of his college career. "I think there's a lot of improvement for me defensively. But I feel like when I'm locked in and need to do what I have to do defensively, I can do it."
He might actually hold up better at center. At 6-foot-9 and just under 220 pounds with a light lower body, Toppin is clearly not strong enough to bang with Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid. But it could work in bursts, especially with his understanding of how to protect the rim after registering 1.6 blocks per 40 minutes last season.
"With the amount of length that I have, my athletic ability, I'm going to get higher than he is and he's going to have to shoot a high rainbow shot to get it over my arm," Toppin said. "I just literally jump as high as I can with my hands up in the air, let him hit me and see where it goes from there."
Aided by Flyers head coach Anthony Grant's experience on the Oklahoma City Thunder staff, Toppin already demonstrates a strong understanding of different pick-and-roll coverages, like sending guards to their weak hand in the middle of the floor, corralling in drop situations and icing the ball when it's in the sideline alley.
Toppin said he often studies Al Horford, whom Grant coached at Florida.
"He knows his length. He knows how much distance he can give a guard," Toppin said. "He knew what players did offensively and adjusted it that way."
Despite his size, it's possible for Toppin to use his feel and leaping ability to avoid being a liability at the 5 in spurts. That, combined with his offensive versatility, would be enough to make him at least a longtime NBA starter with the approach to the game and skill level to develop into more.
I've always seen Toppin as somewhat of a modernized Amar'e Stoudemire, even if he's not as physical. They're both ferocious dunkers who put a ton of pressure on the rim as rollers and play well out of handoffs, yet leave much to be desired defensively. If Stoudemire had come up in today's game, he'd likely be stepping into 3s just like Toppin, which is what will allow Toppin to play a lot more 4 than Stoudemire offensively. There's also a bit of John Collins to Toppin's game, though Toppin is a better passer than both comps.
Can Toppin make another leap?
Betting on intangibles is always tricky when it comes to the draft, but Toppin is a different case.
As Toppin's frame began to fill out, he raised his skill level and his confidence grew. The showmanship he learned from his father creeped into his game, including an in-game, through-the-legs dunk during his redshirt freshman year. Then there's the infamous midshot stare down in front of the Kansas bench during the Maui Invitational.
Obi Toppin buries a 3-pointer and proceeds to stare down the Kansas bench.
"[Kansas center Udoka Azubuike] back there, he was like, 'He's not like that,'" Toppin said. "So as soon as I released the ball -- as a basketball player, you know when you're going to make a shot -- so as soon as I shot the ball I knew it was going in and my body just kind of did it itself and I was like, 'Thank God it went in.'"
On top of his confidence, coaches, teammates and opponents rave about Toppin's approach. He's going to electrify the fan base of whichever team picks him. As we've seen with many players across the NBA, being liked by coaches and teammates earns you a longer leash, which Toppin likely will have as he works to become a better defender and more physical rebounder.
"When I speak about him, it gives me goose bumps because I just think about the kind of person he is," Greer said. "He lights a room up when he walks in."
I am penciling Toppin in as a Rookie of the Year candidate for a few reasons.
He's arguably the most experienced among the other top-10 prospects, and with basically no offseason, that matters. And he doesn't really need major volume to have an impact. Wherever Toppin ends up, he can make his mark by rim-running, cutting, finishing and floor spacing, which should lead to fairly impressive box score numbers. His defensive shortcomings will become more pronounced in the playoffs, but Toppin figures to be an electric regular-season player who will outplay most of the 22-year-old top-10 picks who came before him.
Given his winding path, confidence and continual improvement every season, I expect Toppin to keep making strides at the NBA level, becoming a high-volume 3-point shooter, evolving into one of the league's best passers among athletic bigs and creeping closer to league average defensively. Maybe he falls short of that ceiling, but that version of Toppin is absolutely worthy of a high lottery pick.
Mike Schmitz is an NBA draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.