What do the latest moves in NBA free agency mean for every team, and what's next across the league?
Many teams have already reached agreements with star players, including the Golden State Warriors, Brooklyn Nets and Boston Celtics.
You can find team-by-team analysis on all of the potential and likely movement here. Go here for my Day 2 analysis.
Boston Celtics
1. Kemba Walker reportedly plans to be in Boston on Sunday to finalize a formal agreement on a four-year, $141 million deal with the Celtics.
How good might the Celtics be with Walker?
In Walker, Boston would get another All-Star point guard to replace Kyrie Irving. But the Celtics still must figure out how to fill Al Horford's role at center on the cheap, as he, like Irving, is expected to leave.
Here's what we can expect from Boston this season and beyond.
Brooklyn Nets
1. The Nets reportedly will sign Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and DeAndre Jordan
What does Durant's decision to sign in Brooklyn mean for the Nets in 2019-20 and beyond?
A day after news broke that Kyrie Irving planned to commit to Brooklyn when NBA free agency officially opened for business on Sunday, Durant made the same decision, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. The Nets will pair the two All-Stars with much of the core of last year's surprising playoff team in the culmination of an incredible rebuilding process for a team that was hopeless not long ago.
How good will Brooklyn be next season with Durant rehabilitating from surgery to repair the Achilles tendon rupture he suffered during Game 5 of the NBA Finals? And what about when Durant returns to the court?
Here's my look at the implications of Brooklyn making its dream pairing of free agents a reality.
Charlotte Hornets
1. Agreed to a reported three-year, $58 million deal with guard Terry Rozier as part of a sign-and-trade with the Boston Celtics
Had Rozier signed a deal worth nearly $20 million per year after starting for the Celtics during their run within a game of the NBA Finals in 2018, it might not have been surprising. For Rozier to get that same deal after regressing and chafing in a reserve role is borderline shocking.
Rozier benefited from Charlotte's limited options for replacing Kemba Walker, who quickly agreed to terms with Boston. Unless the Hornets waived a player and stretched that salary, they had no cap space to find a starting point guard. Enter the Celtics, who proposed a mutual sign-and-trade so they could stay over the cap and utilize their midlevel exception.
The sign-and-trade option gave Charlotte far more spending power than the $9.3 million non-taxpayer midlevel would have offered, and the Hornets spent lavishly to get Rozier to sign on. He'll have the team's second-highest salary in 2019-20 after wing Nicolas Batum.
Certainly, Charlotte hopes it gets the Rozier who averaged 16.5 points and 5.7 assists during the 2018 postseason. But that performance was out of line with what Rozier has done in the regular season. He averaged 5.6 assists and just 1.1 turnovers per 36 minutes in the playoffs, as compared to 4.0 and 1.4, respectively, during the 2017-18 regular season and 4.6 and 1.4 last year. Rozier's true shooting percentage in the 2018 playoffs (53.8%) was also better than he has ever managed during the regular season, when he has scored with middling efficiency at best.
Given he's just 25 and point guards tend to develop later than players at other positions, Rozier might yet grow into a solid starter at the position. Even then, however, he'd probably be overpaid at nearly $20 million per year. The Hornets might find they would have been better off just using their midlevel exception on a less coveted point guard while waiting to find a long-term replacement for Walker in the draft.
Dallas Mavericks
1. Agreed to a reported five-year, $158 million deal with forward Kristaps Porzingis
2. Agreed to a reported three-year, $33 million extension with center Dwight Powell
Before turning their attention to spending roughly $29 million in cap space, the Mavericks first took care of a pair of their own players. After giving up a pair of first-round picks, guard Dennis Smith Jr. and the chance to create even more cap space in a deal for Porzingis at the deadline, Dallas wasn't about to take any chances with his restricted free agency. The Mavericks stepped up with an immediate max to forestall any possibility of Porzingis signing a shorter offer sheet elsewhere.
Dallas is taking a risk on Porzingis' health, considering both his return from an ACL tear and long-term concerns about how his 7-foot-3 frame could affect his durability. But if Porzingis comes back near where he was before the injury, he's got the chance to be worth more than the smaller maximum for players with six or fewer years of experience. And because Porzingis won't turn 24 until August, a five-year deal takes him through what should be his prime years in the NBA.
The decision to extend Powell was a little trickier. After initially indicating he would decline a $10.3 million player option to negotiate a new deal with the Mavericks as a free agent, Powell reversed course and opted in. This allowed him to add an extension on top of this year's salary, meaning he's now guaranteed $43 million over the next four years. I'm surprised Dallas was willing to sign Powell beyond the length of Luka Doncic's rookie contract, after which Doncic is on track to get an enormous raise. That would cause the Mavericks' payroll to balloon in 2022-23, the final year of Powell's extension. Powell will be 31 by that point and unlikely to be as valuable as a pick-and-roll center. So, I would have held the line to two additional years at most.
By waiting to sign Porzingis' contract last, Dallas can take advantage of his smaller $17.1 million cap hold to maximize cap space. Indications are the Mavericks plan to split up their $29 million among multiple players rather than pursuing a single near-max player, with their eyes on a point guard to share ballhandling duties with Doncic, a 3-and-D wing and perhaps another big man. Dallas also has to deal with two additional restricted free agents, wing Dorian Finney-Smith and stretch big Maxi Kleber. Because both have cap holds smaller than $2 million, a big offer sheet to either player could actually push the Mavericks close to the luxury tax this year if they use all their cap space.
Detroit Pistons
1. The Pistons reportedly are eyeing a two-year deal with guard Derrick Rose.
Rose is surely a replacement for incumbent Pistons backup point guard Ish Smith, an unrestricted free agent.
Rose bounced back in a big way in 2018-19, producing more wins above replacement player (3.9 WARP) by my metric than in his previous five combined seasons since an ACL tear (0.2). Whether Rose can maintain that success will depend on how fluky his career-best 37% 3-point shooting was. While he also shot a career-best mark on 2s (51%), Rose approached that mark in recent seasons. He had made just 28% of his 3s over the previous three seasons, and I'd be disinclined to trust a 146-shot sample.
By targeting Rose, I'd guess Detroit is looking to upgrade its dribble-drive attack. According to Second Spectrum tracking data, the Pistons ranked 20th in drives per 100 possessions last season and tied for 23rd with 0.94 points per chance on plays that involved one. Rose drove somewhat less frequently per 100 possessions than Smith (20.5 as compared to 24.6), but the Minnesota Timberwolves scored 1.09 points per chance on those plays, good for ninth among the 74 players with at least 500 drives. (Smith ranked 35th in this group at an even point per drive.)
If Rose indeed got the majority of the midlevel exception, Detroit might be finished shopping in free agency above the veteran's minimum. The Pistons basically have about the non-tax midlevel available if they want to keep 15 players and stay below the luxury-tax line entering the season.
Indiana Pacers
1. As part of a sign-and-trade with the Milwaukee Bucks, Malcolm Brogdon and the Pacers have agreed to a four-year, $85 million deal.
You can find my trade grades for this deal -- and what it means for both teams -- here.
LA Clippers
1. Agreed to a reported three-year, $40 million deal with guard Patrick Beverley
To answer your first question: No, this deal doesn't affect the Clippers' pursuit of Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. With the other max-caliber free agents off the board, the Clippers won't be pairing two such players this season. That was the only reason they might have willingly moved on from Beverley, a big part of the team's surprising playoff berth last season. Because the Clippers have full Bird rights on Beverley, they can utilize his $9.5 million cap hold while awaiting Leonard's decision, giving them more than enough room to sign Leonard to a max deal.
The one scenario in which a new contract for Beverley could complicate matters is Leonard deciding to sign a short-term deal to stay with the Toronto Raptors. In that case, the Clippers would want to retain max cap space going forward to potentially land him. Still, with Danilo Gallinari's contract up next summer, the Clippers project to have more than $50 million in 2020 cap space pending additional multiyear contracts next summer. So they'll have more than enough for Leonard.
Assessing this contract on its own merits, it is a risk. The Clippers are paying Beverley through age 33, and he has a track record of missing time due to injury. Last season's 78 games played were, conveniently, a career high. (Fortunately so for Beverley, who was badly underpaid on his last contract, he signed before the cap spike.)
When healthy, Beverley's bulldog defense and strong 3-point shooting (38% career) make him a valuable role player. Keeping him around also takes some pressure off second-year point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needing to run the offense at all times. So good for both sides here.
Memphis Grizzlies
1. Center Jonas Valanciunas reportedly is expected to commit to a three-year, $45 million contract to return to the Grizzlies
After a strong finish to the 2018-19 season in Memphis following his inclusion in the Marc Gasol trade, Valanciunas declined a $16.5 million player option with an eye toward a longer-term contract. This deal will mean a slight pay cut this season but adds two seasons at more than $14 million per year to Valanciunas' contract -- better than he could have counted on getting as a free agent in the summer of 2020.
Having played a secondary role in the Toronto Raptors' offense, even with his move to the bench last season, Valanciunas successfully took on a higher usage rate on an injury-riddled Grizzlies team. He finished more than 30% of the team's plays while on the court in 19 games, maintaining a solid 59.4 true shooting percentage and also handing out assists at a career-high rate (2.8 per 36 minutes). If Valanciunas keeps that up, Memphis will feel comfortable paying him like a solid starter.
For now, Valanciunas' presence allows 2018 first-round pick Jaren Jackson Jr. to stay primarily at power forward while playing backup minutes at the 5. Eventually, the Grizzlies may decide Jackson is more valuable as a full-time center, which could squeeze Valanciunas' playing time. If that happens, Valanciunas might be difficult to move for value on this contract. But limiting the deal to three years aligns his free agency with the end of Jackson's rookie contract, before which Memphis should have plenty of cap flexibility thanks to several expiring contracts, most notably that of forward Chandler Parsons.
The Grizzlies still have to deal with restricted free agency for another player from the Gasol trade, point guard Delon Wright, as well as figure out how to handle partially guaranteed contracts for wings Avery Bradley (who pushed his guarantee date back to July 8) and Kyle Korver (fully guaranteed on July 7, a day after Memphis will officially acquire him in the Mike Conley trade). Because of the savings from the Conley trade, the Grizzlies could guarantee both players without having to worry about the luxury tax, although they can't really create appreciable cap space and will likely remain an over-the-cap team.
Milwaukee Bucks
1. Re-signed Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton and George Hill.
How good is this Bucks team after a busy first day of free agency?
Here's my look at their moves and where they stand now trying to replicate their 2018-19 success.
New Orleans Pelicans
1. Agreed to a reported two-year, $26.5 million deal with guard JJ Redick
2. Agreed to a reported two-year, $8 million deal with forward Nicolo Melli
New Pelicans executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin was clearly focused in free agency on surrounding No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson with quality shooters. In Redick, New Orleans landed perhaps the best shooter on the market, plus a strong, veteran presence in a young locker room.
Targeting Redick is perhaps a little surprising given the Pelicans already have Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday and Josh Hart in the backcourt. Holiday can slide down and defend small forwards, a role he sort of already played alongside E'Twaun Moore (who's still here, too), but Brandon Ingram is there, as well. So it will be interesting to see how Alvin Gentry finds room for everybody.
That said, though, Moore has shot 43% over the past two seasons, New Orleans didn't have a shooter of Redick's caliber on the roster. He'll not only provide floor spacing, but also keep defenses busy with his constant off-ball movement. So, no doubt Redick will get plenty of playing time while finally unpacking his bags after playing the past two seasons on one-year deals with the Philadelphia 76ers.
Melli moves stateside after helping Fenerbahce to the EuroLeague Final Four each of the past two seasons. A 6-foot-9 stretch big, he made 41% of his 3s across all competitions from the shorter FIBA line last season. Melli could struggle against NBA defenders inside the arc, and there's typically an adjustment period for European players transitioning to the longer 3-point line, but he'll come much cheaper than the stretch 4s with NBA experience on the market.
Depending what other moves they make, the Pelicans could wait and sign Melli using their room midlevel exception. In that case, they'd still have about $18 million to spend, assuming they renounce the rights to their free agents but retain their players with non-guaranteed salaries.
New York Knicks
1. Agreed to a reported three-year, $63 million deal with forward Julius Randle
2. Agreed to a reported two-year, $20 million deal with forward Taj Gibson
3. Agreed to a reported two-year, $31 million deal with forward Bobby Portis
As soon as Kevin Durant picked Brooklyn, the Knicks were clear losers of the offseason, but the first three contracts doled out from their $70 million in cap space look like especially poor values.
The big takeaway from New York's moves Sunday is the team punting on a weak crop of 2020 free agents in favor of a focus on 2021, when Giannis Antetokounmpo highlights a group with substantially more star power. While Randle's deal is for three years, Yahoo! Sports reported the third season is a team option, giving the Knicks some additional flexibility. They don't yet have any guaranteed salary for 2021-22, holding team options on their rookie contracts and a non-guarantee for center Mitchell Robinson.
For now, New York will pay Randle like the star his box-score stats in New Orleans said he was. During his lone season with the Pelicans, Randle averaged 21.4 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game with strong efficiency. He made 56% of his 2-point attempts and shot a career-best 34% on 195 3-point attempts. Yet Randle gave up much of his value at the other end of the court, where he struggles to protect the rim. According to NBA Advanced Stats, New Orleans allowed 112.4 points per 100 possessions with Randle on the court and Anthony Davis off, a rate that would have ranked 24th in the league.
Giving proper weight to defense, ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) rated Randle about league average last season. He ranked sixth among centers in offensive RPM but 61st out of 63 centers on defense, ahead of former Knicks Enes Kanter and Willy Hernangomez.
We'll see how much Randle ends up playing center with Robinson likely to step into a much larger role in his second season. Power forward is a better spot for Randle defensively, and last season's 3-point shooting provided enough floor spacing to make such lineups viable.
Surely Randle will also play regularly with Gibson in duos where the lines between power forward and center are blurred. Having turned 34 last week, Gibson is still chugging along, putting together far and away his two most efficient seasons as a scorer during his time with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Somewhat surprisingly that can't be attributed to the floor spacing provided by frontcourt-mate Karl-Anthony Towns, as data from NBA Advanced Stats shows Gibson was just as efficient with Towns on the bench.
Paying $10 million a year to Gibson in his mid-30s probably isn't the best use of New York's cap space, but he'll be an adult in the locker room and provide reliable production to help the Knicks evaluate and develop their younger players.
It's also unclear who would be the power forward and who would be the center in lineups with Portis, who agreed to terms on another two-year deal later in the day. Pairing Portis and Randle is surprising given the overlap in their skill sets as score-first big men with modest 3-point range and little defensive acumen. Portis actually rated slightly worse by defensive RPM last season, albeit with the strongly positive offensive RPM to compensate.
Unlike Randle over the past two seasons, Portis has never scored with above-average efficiency, and he also doesn't offer the same kind of playmaking skill. So while Portis is a better 3-point shooter (36% career), he is likely a weaker value at $15.5 million a year than Randle is at $21 million.
Despite giving three players eight-figure annual deals, New York still could get up to more than $26 million in cap space. Ideally, the Knicks would be patient and identify good values as other teams use up their spending power. So far that hasn't been the case.
Philadelphia 76ers
1. Agreed to a reported four-year, $109 million deal with Al Horford and traded for Josh Richardson.
In a stunning makeover of a roster that gave the Toronto Raptors their toughest test en route to the 2019 NBA championship, the Sixers lost starters JJ Redick and Jimmy Butler on Sunday but managed to replace them by acquiring Richardson from the Miami Heat in a Butler sign-and-trade and agreeing to a contract with Horford.
Remarkably, Philadelphia's giant and versatile new starting five appears to perhaps have even more potential than the lineup that took the Raptors the distance.
Here's my look at what we can expect from the new-look Sixers.
Portland Trail Blazers
1. The Blazers and Damian Lillard reportedly have agreed to a four-year contract extension currently projected for $196 million.
How can the Trail Blazers make a Lillard supermax contract work for them?
The extension would kick in during the 2021-22 season, after Lillard's current contract expires, and its value wouldn't be determined until the salary cap is set two years from now.
The challenge now is for the Blazers to maintain a competitive team around Lillard once his salary jumps to an expected average of nearly $50 million per year.
Utah Jazz
1. Agreed to a reported four-year, $73 million deal with forward Bojan Bogdanovic
2. Agreed to a reported two-year, $10 million deal with center Ed Davis
The Jazz completed the bulk of an offseason makeover with an eye toward upgrading their shooting by moving on from longtime starting power forward Derrick Favors and replacing him with Bogdanovic. Utah's desire for a stretch 4 option has been no secret, and the Jazz looked like a leading contender to sign Nikola Mirotic before Mirotic shocked everyone by deciding to instead head back to Spain with FC Barcelona.
Pivoting quickly, Utah focused its attention on Bogdanovic, who got most of the Jazz's remaining cap space on a four-year deal. I don't love the value, but I like the fit. A four-year deal for a 30-year-old player is risky, and Bogdanovic has just a two-year track record -- corresponding to his time with the Pacers -- of above-replacement level play. So $73 million is a lot to spend.
Those concerns noted, Bogdanovic could be a great fit in the Utah frontcourt next to Rudy Gobert. At 6-foot-8 and a listed 216 pounds, Bogdanovic is relatively similar in size to former Jazz small ball 4 option Jae Crowder (6-foot-6, 235). Sliding him down from the wing to the power forward not only gives Bogdanovic a quickness advantage in most matchups, but also makes his shooting ability even more dangerous.
Even before he was a valuable player, Bogdanovic was a quality shooter, and he hit better than 40% of his 3-point attempts in two seasons with Indiana. Utah has never had that caliber of shooting at power forward. Along with Mike Conley and holdover Joe Ingles, Bogdanovic gives the Jazz three above-average 3-point shooters to space the floor for Donovan Mitchell and Gobert.
We'll see how much of a defensive price Utah pays going from Favors and Crowder at the 4 to Bogdanovic, who has never been a particularly good rebounder for a wing and almost never blocks shots (he had one blocked shot last season in more than 2,500 minutes of action). If you're going to play Bogdanovic at power forward, it almost has to be alongside a dominant paint defender such as Gobert. On the plus side, Bogdanovic should be more than capable of holding up if the Jazz want to switch more than they did last season (just 10% of picks, per Second Spectrum tracking).
With Favors moving over to center no longer an option, Utah needed a backup to Gobert. Davis is a fine choice. He gives the Jazz the top two players in defensive RPM last season, having finished just behind Gobert. That overstates Davis' defensive value, but he's a solid positional defender who ranked in the NBA's top five in defensive rebound percentage during his lone campaign in Brooklyn. Also a high-percentage finisher around the rim, Davis will ensure Utah has 48 minutes of solid center play.
The ease of finding a quality backup center with the room exception was one reason I favored the Jazz replacing Favors. Had Utah been shopping for a stretch 4 with the same money instead, the pickings would have likely been slim.