After six years of futility, the New York Knicks enter an offseason with hope.
Flush with salary-cap flexibility, the No. 3 pick in the 2019 NBA draft and two future first-round picks from the Dallas Mavericks, New York is in position to transform its roster from a lottery team to one with a championship pedigree.
Let's look ahead to free agency, draft and trade decisions facing the Knicks this summer -- including potential trade talks regarding the No. 3 pick, the necessary moves to land star free agents (such as Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving) and what happens if New York strikes out.
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The No. 3 pick: Keep or trade?
Expect the Knicks to exhaust every option when it comes to the No. 3 pick. While the most likely outcome is that RJ Barrett will be in a Knicks uniform when the regular season starts, New York will not have a shortage of options, including ...
1. Keep the pick
Before Zion Williamson exploded onto the scene in November, Barrett was the No. 1 pick in the ESPN mock draft that came out before the college basketball season started.
While Barrett might not have the same box-office appeal as Williamson, the guard checks the boxes when it comes to basketball IQ, length, ability to guard multiple positions and not being afraid of the big moment.
In a league starved for wings, New York has the ability to snag one at a $7.8 million cap hit -- $2 million below the average player salary.
2. Trade to Atlanta for No. 8 and No. 10
Moving back in the draft is typically a good option to explore -- but not this year. In a draft where there is a clear cutoff after the top three, quality trumps quantity.
A combination of Cam Reddish and Jaxson Hayes has appeal, but New York should be targeting players who have franchise-level talent, not a duo who will take time to develop.
3. Trade for Anthony Davis
Before the lottery, ESPN's Kevin Pelton wrote that trading Williamson for Davis if the Knicks landed at No. 1 should be met with skepticism. But how does landing at No. 3 change that thinking?
The same principles should mostly apply if the goal is to sign two players to max contracts in July. Barrett would sign his rookie contract June 30 and New York would sit in a 30-day holding pattern until Barrett becomes eligible to be traded. Getting within 125 percent of Davis' $27 million salary (if he waives his trade bonus) would require New York to send New Orleans a package of Barrett, Kevin Knox, Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina, Damyean Dotson (contract would need to be guaranteed) and likely the 2021 unprotected first-rounder from Dallas.
The roster would be left with Davis, two free agents (possibly Irving and Durant), a player signed to the $4.8 million room midlevel exception and 10 slots to be filled using the minimum exception.
Would gutting the roster and losing Barrett be worth putting together a star trio in its prime? Despite the Lakers moving up to No. 4 and Boston having multiple first-round picks and valuable young players, New York's package for AD has appeal -- if New Orleans believes Barrett can be a transcendent star.
The approach in free agency
It always helps to sell the basketball product first in free agency. We saw that in Golden State in 2016, when Durant was lured by a championship roster that featured All-Stars Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green and veterans Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston.
That won't be the case for the Knicks this offseason. New York's roster as currently constructed resembles that of an expansion team. With only five players under contract -- Smith, Ntilikina, Knox, Mitchell Robinson and Dotson -- there is little to sell free agents on, outside of potential, market appeal and cap space.
Would a player such as Durant want to be part of a rebuild if there is not another All-Star to join him? The situation with New York mirrors that of the Lakers last year when it came to free agency. With a young roster and the ability to add two max free agents, the Lakers signed LeBron James, failed to add a co-star, used cap space on role players who fit poorly and missed the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season.
Is what happened in Los Angeles a warning sign for how free agents should approach New York? That answer will depend on the basketball side of the presentation from the Knicks' front office June 30.
Establishing a plan B
New York is set to witness the challenges of signing not one max player, but two -- something that hasn't been done since the 2010 Miami Heat pulled it off.
What happens if New York doesn't land Durant or Irving?
1. Chase Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Kemba Walker or Khris Middleton
There is a tendency for a front office to have a knee-jerk reaction after missing out on its free-agent wish list, making it easy to overspend on contracts that won't age well.
Adding Butler and Walker with Barrett would bring an immediate upgrade to the roster and turn New York into a playoff team. It would also keep the roster intact and leave New York with $9 million in room plus the $4.8 million exception available in free agency.
However, is management comfortable with $280 million being tied up between those two players for the next four seasons? What's the ceiling on that roster?
2. Sign free agents (including their own) to one-year contracts and preserve cap space in 2020
Just because the Knicks have more than $70 million in room doesn't mean they should go on a free-agent shopping spree.
Because the roster has five players on first-round contracts next season, New York could go the one-year route with free agents and preserve flexibility in 2020. By then, New York would have $88 million in room and another year of player development with its young core.
3. Use cap space to take back contracts and draft picks
We have seen the Brooklyn Nets take advantage of cap space to take back contracts (Jared Dudley, DeMarre Carroll and Kenneth Faried) and build up their draft assets.
While that philosophy could be seen as a disappointment after the Kristaps Porzingis trade, remember that this Knicks team finished 17-65 and is in the beginning stages of a rebuild. Those draft assets are important if New York can't build an immediate contender.
Summer cap breakdown
Currently with $31.1 million in committed salary, New York could have up to $72.5 million in room. The room factors $6.3 million of incomplete roster charges and five players under contract, including the non-guaranteed salary of Dotson.
The Knicks will also have the $4.7 million room midlevel exception to use on a player such as Allonzo Trier if his $3.5 million team option is declined.
Resources available to build the roster
The draft: No. 3 pick
Cash to buy a second-round pick
Cap space: $72.5 million in room
$4.7 million room midlevel exception
Dates to watch
We will get a sense in late June if New York is actually in play for two max All-NBA free agents. Although the Knicks will have $59.3 million in room just by renouncing their own free agents, getting to the magic number of $71 million (enough for Durant and Irving) would require the Knicks to make a series of late-June roster decisions.
Here is the timeline on creating cap space:
The team options
The team options of Trier ($3.5 million), Henry Ellenson ($1.6 million), Billy Garrett ($1.4 million) and John Jenkins ($2 million) will need to be exercised or declined by June 29.
One possible scenario is for New York to decline each option but tender Trier a $4.2 million qualifying offer. Because the contract has a team option and not a June 29 guaranteed date, Trier will not go through the waiver process. The offer would make Trier a restricted free agent and protect the Knicks if they miss out in free agency.
New York could pick up the $3.5 million option on Trier and still have a max slot for two players. The Knicks would have $69.8 million in room, $150,000 short of signing a player such as Durant to the full max plus adding another max player. But if the salary cap is adjusted from the projected $109 to $109.5 million, the Knicks would have enough room. That's risky, but it's possible. This would be the best-case scenario, considering that the Knicks would still have the $4.8 million room midlevel to use on a free agent and keep Trier under contract.
If all four options are declined, New York still would need to renounce each cap hit to create the room for double max space.
The non-guaranteed contracts
Veteran Lance Thomas is the key to New York getting to the $70 million number. Signed to a four-year, $27.5 million contract in 2016, Thomas has a June 30 guarantee date for $1 million of his $7.6 million contract. If Thomas is waived, New York would have $72.5 million in room, enough for a double max slot.
There is a scenario for Thomas to be on the roster past June 30 with New York still having the double max slot available. Because the Thomas contract is guaranteed for only $1 million past June 30, New York can keep the forward and decide at a later date if there is a need to stretch his $1 million over three seasons ($333,000 cap hit).
The contract of Thomas also has value if New York does not waive him. Because the forward signed his contract in 2016 under the previous collective bargaining agreement, the NBA allows the full $7.6 million cap hit to be used in a trade (rather than just the guaranteed amount).
Expect Dotson to be on the roster past his July 15 guarantee date. The 2017 second-round pick has developed into a rotation player (and occasional starter) and gives the Knicks much-needed depth.
The restricted free agents
There is a balancing act when it comes to the Knicks: restricted free agents. For example, New York must decide by June 29 to tender a $4.5 million one-year qualifying offer to Emmanuel Mudiay and $2 million offer to Luke Kornet. Both contracts are guaranteed and would count against the cap in the unlikely scenario that either player signs July 1.
New York does have until July 13 to pull the offer without the permission of the player. Both players will become unrestricted free agents if New York elects not to extend a qualifying offer.
Restrictions and extension candidates
• If the team option on Garrett is exercised, the forward cannot be traded until July 2. Because he is signed to a non-guaranteed contract, his contract would not count toward outgoing salary.
• The lone player who is extension eligible is Thomas. However, with his future in doubt, Thomas is more likely to be waived and not extended.
The draft assets
Our latest Future Power Rankings had New York fifth overall in draft asset value.
Not only do the Knicks have the No. 3 pick in June but they own two valuable future assets via the Mavericks: a 2021 unprotected first-rounder and 2023 top-10 protected first. If the first is not conveyed in 2023, New York will receive a top-10 protected first in 2024 or 2025 -- or a 2025 second-rounder if the protections hold up.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have New York selecting in June:
No. 3 (own): RJ Barrett | SG | Duke
No. 55 (via Houston): DaQuan Jeffries | SG | Tulsa
New York owns all of its future first-round picks.