NBA Future Power Rankings: Rising and falling franchises

How will your team perform over the next three seasons?

The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons.

Consider this a convenient way to see the direction in which your favorite team is headed.

To determine the Future Power Rankings, we asked ESPN Insider analysts Kevin Pelton and Bobby Marks to rate teams in five categories and rank them relative to the rest of the league. For an explanation of each category and a full view of how each team did in each individual category, click here. Each team also received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 100, based on how well we expect it to perform in the next three seasons.

Here are our latest rankings.

Note: The last version of these rankings dropped in September.

The Warriors top our future power rankings for the seventh consecutive edition, a period during which they've won three championships. Yet Golden State's edge over the rest of the league has closed from light-years to razor thin with the possibility that Kevin Durant might leave as an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Yes, the Warriors won an NBA-record 73 games the last regular season they played without Durant, but stars Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson (also an unrestricted free agent) are all on the wrong side of the aging curve now and have the additional mileage of four consecutive NBA Finals runs (and counting). Given the team's financial limitations, Golden State would also need someone to take a discount to play in a market we ranked tied for first in order to replace KD. So this summer is the greatest threat yet to the Warriors' dynastic run.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 1)

Despite the pending free agency of Kyrie Irving, the Celtics remain No. 2. The reason? The possibility of four first-round picks (their own, the Kings', the Grizzlies' and the Clippers') in the upcoming draft and players on controllable contracts (Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum) to either develop or use in a trade for a player such as Anthony Davis.

But there remains uncertainty this offseason. With Irving, Terry Rozier (restricted) and Marcus Morris -- plus possibly Aron Baynes (player option) and Al Horford (player option) -- set to be free agents, Boston could be looking at a mass exodus with little flexibility. In fact, Boston would have only $26 million in cap space available to replace its core free agents.

-- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 2)

The Nuggets' jump this year from ninth in the Western Conference to second looks likely to endure. Despite having just one player they drafted in the top 10 on the roster (Jamal Murray), the Nuggets received the highest score of any team for players. That's testament to Denver's front office mining gems late in the first round (Malik Beasley, Gary Harris) and even in the second round (All-Star Nikola Jokic, Monte Morris) to build a team so flush with young talent that the biggest concern is how the Nuggets can afford to pay everyone.

Beasley and Murray will be up for lucrative extensions in the summer of 2020, which could force Denver to part with starting power forward Paul Millsap by then. Already, the Nuggets had to give up this year's first-rounder to dodge the luxury tax. Still, with their top three scorers under 25, Denver's future is bright.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: T-7)

The additions of Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris have moved Philly into the top four. While both players are set to be free agents, there is a belief that the 76ers will take a blank-check approach and re-sign the two at any cost. If that proves to be accurate, Philadelphia will spend the next three seasons in the luxury tax, faced with financial restrictions to build out the bench. (As a result, Philadelphia ranks No. 27 in money compared with No. 8 when the season started.)

The good news is that the 76ers' two core players -- Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons -- will be in a 76ers uniform for at least the next four seasons. Embiid will enter Year 2 of his rookie extension in 2019-20, and Simmons will likely sign a max extension this summer.

-- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 5)

While the Jazz haven't been able to parlay a strong close to 2017-18 into a top-four spot in the West thus far, the future still looks bright, provided Utah skillfully manages a crucial summer. By moving on from point guard Ricky Rubio and power forward Derrick Favors, the Jazz can create more than $30 million in cap space to add to the core of high-scoring guard Donovan Mitchell and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. That might be an opportunity for Utah to add shooting and shift to more of the four-out offense that has been successful when Jae Crowder replaces Favors.

Those decisions won't be easy, but we trust a top-10 management group to position the Jazz to contend throughout the primes of Gobert and Mitchell.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 6)

This 10-spot jump is no surprise for the Bucks, who have the best record in the league. Milwaukee has cornered the market in the two most important categories: players (No. 3) and strong management (No. 2).

Despite the roster having three starters who are free agents this summer -- Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon and Brook Lopez -- MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo is under contract through 2020-21 (can sign a $252 million extension in 2020) and starting point guard Eric Bledsoe recently signed a $70 million extension. That team-friendly deal now gives Milwaukee flexibility to sign all three free agents and remain under the luxury tax.

-- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 16)

A four-spot slide for the Rockets can probably be tied largely to Chris Paul's decline at age 33. Given the way the four-year max deal Houston handed Paul last summer limits the team's financial flexibility, the Rockets need Paul to play at an All-Star level -- something he did in February after a shooting slump to start the season and an extended absence with a hamstring injury. As he nears his 30th birthday, the age of reigning MVP James Harden could become a concern, too. But that has yet to slow Harden, who has reached new heights as a scorer this season.

Between Harden and management we ranked second in the league behind the Warriors, the Rockets have the kind of high-end talent necessary to navigate a tricky future complicated by luxury-tax concerns that will grow only more pressing when Harden's supermax extension kicks in next season.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 3)

No team improved its standing in these rankings more from last fall than the Clippers, who have not only exceeded expectations on the court but also positioned themselves to build around a max free agent (or maybe two) this summer. The Clippers could add a free agent -- perhaps SoCal native Kawhi Leonard -- to a core that includes Danilo Gallinari, two-time Sixth Man Award winner Lou Williams, uber-efficient center Montrezl Harrell and promising rookie guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Landry Shamet.

Though the Clippers will lose this year's first-round pick to Boston barring a collapse into the lottery, they've got extra picks coming in 2020 from Philadelphia (lottery-protected) and 2021 from Miami (unprotected) thanks to their high-value trade sending forward Tobias Harris to the Sixers. The Clippers' strong planning for the future is testament to a management team (including coach Doc Rivers) we rank fifth overall.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 21)

In hindsight, the Blazers' dipping five spots in last summer's rankings was an overreaction to their first-round sweep at the hands of the New Orleans Pelicans. Six months later, Portland finds itself in the same spot as a year ago, having ranked between eighth and 10th in every other FPR since 2016. Jusuf Nurkic's development into a reliable center on a reasonable contract (four years, $48 million) has been the big development for the Blazers, who needed him as an interior counterweight to guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.

After years of battling the luxury tax, Portland could create cap space by the summer of 2020, though it would require letting starters Al-Farouq Aminu and Maurice Harkless walk. Before then, the Blazers might have to reckon with Lillard's future. Lillard will be eligible for a supermax extension either this summer or in 2020 if he makes All-NBA this season.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 14)

Credit Paul George's ascension into the MVP race for overshadowing questions about how Russell Westbrook might age.

Ordinarily, the decline in Westbrook's efficiency during his age-30 campaign (his .499 true shooting percentage is his lowest since his second season in the NBA) might raise serious concerns, given Westbrook is in the first season of a five-year supermax extension that will pay him nearly $47 million at age 34. But George has taken advantage of Westbrook's willingness to take a step back on offense to keep Oklahoma City in the mix for third in the Western Conference. Add in a strong supporting core and the Thunder figure to stay in contention for the next few seasons, even if they might be challenged to improve on this season's roster with a payroll deep into the luxury tax and potentially two first-round picks headed elsewhere.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: T-7)

The Lakers got LeBron James, but have blown seemingly every major decision since LeBron's July 1 announcement that he was bound for L.A. As a result, the Lakers tumble seven spots in the rankings, three behind their fellow Staples Center tenants. The Clippers are not only better now but appear to have a better chance of landing a max free agent this summer than the Lakers, who could find themselves in a holding pattern again for 2019-20 if they're unable to sign a star or trade for Anthony Davis. That would give the Lakers' young talent another season to establish itself in the league, preferably with better veteran complements than last summer's signings provided.

Nonetheless, the Lakers' path to championship contention with LeBron now appears much more uncertain than it did in happier days last summer.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 4)

Brooklyn has set the blueprint for how to rebuild and develop players.

Devoid of lottery picks to build a foundation, the Nets have taken advantage of shrewd trades (D'Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert), second-chance players (Joe Harris and Spencer Dinwiddie), and draft picks outside of the lottery (Jarrett Allen and Rodions Kurucs) to develop a roster that is now competing for a playoff spot. With a strong player development program, Brooklyn has turned the same roster that ranked No. 26 in September to one that is now No. 13.

Now the question heading into the offseason: Can the Nets capitalize on this season and attract an A-list free agent on the level of Kevin Durant? Loaded with $30 million in cap space, two first-round picks, a roster that returns the same starting five (including Russell, a restricted free agent) and the New York City market (No. 6), Brooklyn will have a strong case to make to free agents.

-- Marks

(Previous rank: T-18)

The Mavericks move up again and have jumped nine spots in the past year, an upward trend explained largely by their draft-day deal for Luka Doncic. Having begun it at age 19, Doncic has put together one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory, giving Dallas another international superstar as an anchor.

Doncic will soon be joined by Kristaps Porzingis, acquired in a blockbuster February trade that could produce one of the league's best pick-and-pop duos if Porzingis returns to 100 percent after a torn ACL. Largely because of Doncic and Porzingis, the Mavericks have the second-highest players score of any team headed to the lottery. However, those deals have cost them dearly in terms of draft picks, where Dallas gets the lowest score because the team is guaranteed only one of its next three first-rounders. Besides internal improvement, the Mavericks are counting on free agency to build around Doncic and Porzingis.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 17)

Though the Spurs look certain to extend their playoff streak to an incredible 22 seasons -- and 29 of the past 30 years -- the future remains uncertain in San Antonio, starting on the sideline. Legendary Gregg Popovich has yet to commit to coaching the Spurs beyond this season, and will be difficult to replace whenever he decides to retire. Popovich has successfully built a top-five offense around the shot-making of LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan, but San Antonio could pivot away from them by the summer of 2021, when both would be unrestricted free agents if DeRozan picks up a $28 million player option for 2020-21.

The next great Spurs team seems more likely to feature the skills of young guards Derrick White and Dejounte Murray, the latter of whom has been sidelined this season by a torn ACL.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 9)

There are two reasons the Pacers have dropped four spots:

1. The season-ending injury to Victor Oladipo with uncertain timing for his return.

2. Seven players hitting free agency in July, including three starters (Darren Collison, Bojan Bogdanovic and Thaddeus Young).

History says this group can handle the situation well (look how it recovered after the Paul George trade). The Pacers have a strong management group with a proven track record for reshaping a roster without taking a step back. Indiana ranks No. 5 in money and can take an aggressive approach in free agency.

-- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 11)

Don't let the 23-45 record this season fool you -- Atlanta's rebuild since 2017 is further along than many in the league expected. The Hawks are now up 12 spots thanks to these three factors:

1. Two potential All-Stars in Trae Young and John Collins, plus a supporting cast of Kevin Huerter and Taurean Prince. The Hawks ranked dead last in roster before the season and are now No. 19 because of the progression of all four players.

2. The potential to have two lottery picks in June -- their own and the Mavericks' (top-five protected).

3. $50 million in cap space to sign players in free agency or look to take back contracts with draft picks attached.

Because this group is front-loaded with first-round picks on rookie contracts (possibly eight in 2019-20), Atlanta can keep this roster intact, continue to develop and maintain financial flexibility to add in free agency for the foreseeable future.

-- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 28)

The Raptors are in a holding pattern -- outside the top 10 despite being on pace to set a franchise record in wins. Toronto falls back several spots based on the uncertain future of Kawhi Leonard, who would surely push the Raptors back into the top 10 by returning.

However, if the All-Star departs, Toronto goes from a team competing for a championship to one that will have a big decision to make: Retool the roster or tear it down? Although there is a foundation in place with Pascal Siakam, the Raptors would enter next season with the expiring contracts of Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol (if he opts in). Toronto could retain the three veterans with the belief that this team can still compete in the East or look to sell off for young players and draft picks.

-- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 10)

Believe it or not, this is the first time in the seven-year history of the future rankings that the Kings have ranked outside the bottom 10. In fact, they haven't ranked higher than 28th since 2012, a span during which Sacramento won no more than 33 games in any season. The Kings have already matched that total with the league's fourth-youngest roster weighted by minutes played, raising hope for the future.

Led by the backcourt of De'Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield, Sacramento ranks 12th in the players category and still has ample cap space to spend this summer. We'll see whether recruiting players is easier now that the Kings look like playoff contenders. The only downside is Sacramento will lose this year's first-round pick, the last remnant of a trade to clear cap space in the summer of 2015 that quickly backfired.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: 29)

Since these rankings started in 2009, Miami has ranked outside the top 15 twice -- March 2018 and now. Because the Heat have 11 players under contract for next season and once again are projected to be in the luxury tax, the treadmill of mediocrity will continue for another year.

The good news: The core nucleus of Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow and Bam Adebayo is under contract through at least 2021-22, Miami has its own first-round pick in the next two drafts and cap relief is on the way. The Heat could have $40 million in room come the summer of 2020 and will wipe their finances clean the next year when only Richardson and Winslow are under contract.

-- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 13)

Instead of relying on free agency, the Bulls made an early move with their space by acquiring Otto Porter Jr. at the trade deadline. Moving forward, they have a nucleus to build around in Porter, Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. The four players are under contract through at least 2020-21. Chicago will also add a likely top-five pick this season and could have $20 million in space to build out the roster.

Management (especially coaching) is the wild card. The Bulls have the third-youngest roster in the NBA and cannot allow head coach Jim Boylen to return for next season if there is a hint of skepticism that he's not the right long-term fit. Another midseason coaching change next year could set the organization back years (see Phoenix).

-- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 24)

The ranking fits the identity of the Magic -- a borderline playoff team that has a free-agent decision when it comes to All-Star Nikola Vucevic. Orlando is not going to simply write a blank check to re-sign him. But while the decision of cost will certainly affect the team's choice, the Magic's front office has to balance keeping its best player while not hindering the development of No. 6 pick Mo Bamba.

The development of Bamba and Jonathan Isaac and the recent addition of 2017 No. 1 pick Markelle Fultz will determine whether the Magic can shed the label of mediocrity in the future. Despite sacrificing $9.7 million in cap space for the 2019-2020 season, Orlando took a low-cost risk with the belief that Fultz can develop into the point guard of the future.

-- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 25)

When the Timberwolves hired Tom Thibodeau as head coach and president of basketball operations in the summer of 2016, we rated Minnesota's future fifth-best in the league. Less than three years later, after the Timberwolves moved on from Thibodeau, they've dropped all the way to 22nd. In part, that reflects No. 1 pick Andrew Wiggins' inability to develop beyond a volume scorer. However, it's also the product of one of the NBA's youngest rosters growing older (weighted by minutes played, Minnesota's roster is now exactly league average age) without any playoff results to show for it.

The Timberwolves still have capable talent, led by 23-year-old All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns. Yet adding Towns' max extension to one for Wiggins will swallow up much of Minnesota's financial flexibility, and we can't trust Timberwolves management to navigate the cap while maintaining and adding to the roster.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 20)

A league-best record after the All-Star break did little to sway Detroit's ranking here. The Pistons remain at No. 23 based on a roster that has $118 million in committed salary for 2019-20 and carries little roster flexibility this summer to improve.

If the roster does take a step forward, it will be a result of the continued development of Luke Kennard, identifying talent in the draft and using the expiring contract of Reggie Jackson to upgrade the point guard position.

-- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 23)

If we relied solely on cap space, draft assets and big market appeal, New York would rank No. 1. However, because we cannot put a ranking on faceless free agents, the Knicks fall back five spots from September based on a developing roster. New York ranks No. 28 there with only four players -- Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina, Kevin Knox and Mitchell Robinson -- on guaranteed contracts for next season.

High rankings in cap space and draft assets could foster an accelerated rebuild. The Knicks enter the offseason with the potential of $70 million in room, a likely top-three pick and future draft assets from the Porzingis trade.

-- Marks

(Previous rank: T-18)

The Wizards take the biggest fall here, for three reasons:

1. The Achilles injury to John Wall that could sideline the former All-Star for the 2019-20 season.

2. Wall's cap hits of $38.1 million, $41.2 million and $44.2 million over the next three seasons.

3. A roster that has only five players on guaranteed contracts: Wall, Bradley Beal, Dwight Howard, Ian Mahinmi and Troy Brown Jr.

The Wizards did get themselves out of salary-cap purgatory with the Otto Porter Jr. trade. A projected luxury-tax team in 2019-20 with little roster flexibility before the deal, the Wizards now have $89.5 million in guaranteed contracts ($43 million below the tax).

-- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 12)

As Kevin Arnovitz's recent feature laid bare, the Suns have squandered the seven seasons since Steve Nash's departure with mismanagement, leaving their future no clearer now than at any point in that span. (Just once in the history of the future rankings has Phoenix ranked outside the bottom 10.)

There's talent here, including two of our top 20 players under 25 in guard Devin Booker and No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton. As usual, however, that hasn't translated into wins. That cost GM Ryan McDonough his job during the preseason and could lead to another coaching change depending upon who replaces McDonough on a full-time basis this summer. No wonder the Suns rated last in the management category. And, remarkably, the summer after dealing for guard Tyler Johnson at the deadline, Phoenix won't have cap space unless the team parts with restricted free agent Kelly Oubre Jr.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 22)

Every decision the Pelicans made since drafting Anthony Davis at No. 1 in 2012 was with an eye toward persuading him to sign a third contract with the team. That moment of truth has now come and gone with Davis' midseason trade request, and the question becomes how New Orleans moves on from Davis. Despite a perimeter star in Jrue Holiday, the Pelicans will be hard-pressed to compete for a playoff spot without Davis, and that seems to indicate a rebuilding project ahead.

We'll see how quickly New Orleans comes to that realization, which is complicated by the difficulty of maintaining fan interest in one of the league's smallest markets. It's also not clear who will be making the decisions for the Pelicans, who fired GM Dell Demps in February and have replaced him on an interim basis with Danny Ferry.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 15)

The Cavaliers will certainly take dropping one spot here in exchange for the nine draft picks (two first and seven seconds) they acquired in four separate trades this season.

While the trades required Cleveland to take back salary (John Henson, Brandon Knight and Matthew Dellavedova) that extends into 2019-20 and has the team pressed against the luxury tax, Cleveland is now positioned with draft assets to begin a rebuild that should have started after LeBron James departed last offseason.

Cleveland has Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr., Collin Sexton and Ante Zizic under contract in 2020-21. The four players combine to earn $50 million and give the Cavaliers financial flexibility in trades or free agency to build out the roster.

-- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 27)

The Grizzlies started to close the page on their grit-'n'-grind era by dealing center Marc Gasol to Toronto at the trade deadline and could firmly do so this summer if they trade point guard Mike Conley, who was reportedly available last month. In No. 4 pick Jaren Jackson Jr., whose production as a 19-year-old rookie was ahead of schedule, Memphis has one building block in place. However, there's precious little difference-making young talent on the roster beyond Jackson.

The Grizzlies will also be limited by the protected first-round pick they owe to Boston, as well as a payroll surprisingly close to the 2019-20 luxury tax in the final year of Chandler Parsons' ill-fated contract. As a result of those constraints, Memphis could face an extended rebuilding period ahead.

-- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 26)

Since these rankings started in November 2009, Charlotte has ranked last 13 out of 18 times.

Signing free agent Kemba Walker to a competitive salary starting at $32.7 million would see the Hornets' payroll increase to $140 million for next season, placing them in the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history. Those financial implications will have a domino effect on Jeremy Lamb. Can Charlotte afford both? And can Michael Jordan justify having a non-playoff team paying the tax?

There is financial relief in the future as Charlotte will have $50 million coming off the books starting in 2020-21.

-- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 30)