Should the New York Knicks consider trading Zion Williamson as part of a deal for Anthony Davis if they're able to win the NBA draft lottery (May 14 on ESPN)?
Though the Knicks are hoping their logo comes up No. 1 for the first time since winning the inaugural draft lottery in 1985, when they went on to take Patrick Ewing, that wouldn't necessarily mean keeping Williamson, the Duke freshman all but certain to be the top pick.
If New York is able to land two max free agents this summer -- say, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving -- trading Williamson's rights could help the Knicks contend immediately, just as was the case when the Cleveland Cavaliers traded No. 1 pick Andrew Wiggins as part of a package for Kevin Love after signing LeBron James in 2014.
Given Williamson's strong pedigree as a prospect -- he has the second-highest projection behind Davis of any college player in my database, which dates back to 2003 -- would trading him be a mistake? Let's take a look.
The case for a trade: Best chance of winning now
There's no doubt that dealing for Davis would give the Knicks their best chance of competing immediately if they're able to load up in free agency. It's rare for rookies, even those as talented as Williamson, to make much of an impact in the postseason. Consider this: Just four first-year players have even seen any action in this season's second round, according to NBA Advanced Stats, and only one of them (Philadelphia's Jonah Bolden, who played two seasons overseas after leaving UCLA before coming to the NBA) has played more than 10 minutes.
New York would have some time to build a contending roster around star 2019 free agents and would probably be able to add depth in the summer of 2020 using the midlevel exception, as the Miami Heat did by adding Shane Battier the year after signing James and Chris Bosh. Still, there would be some urgency if the Knicks were able to sign Durant, who will turn 31 in September. That's the same age James was when he won his only championship in Cleveland, granted the Cavaliers' subsequent NBA Finals losses had more to do with Durant joining the Warriors and the Irving trade than James declining.
Based on the careers of other one-and-done stars, including Davis and Durant, it will probably take a minimum of a couple seasons for Williamson to reach a true star level of play. Both Davis and Durant earned All-NBA honors for the first time in Year 3, jumping all the way to All-NBA First Team then. At the very least, dealing for Davis would maximize New York's chances of competing for a title over the next couple of years.
That timetable assumes Williamson does develop into a star, which is far from assured. As promising as he looks now, Williamson might not pan out. Remember, there was a fierce debate at the time about whether giving up Wiggins made sense for Cleveland. Though Love was an imperfect fit with the Cavaliers, with hindsight the trade was a no-brainer because Wiggins has struggled to become more than a volume scorer for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Given some uncertainty about how Williamson's unorthodox frame will translate to the NBA, a trade for Davis would mean far less risk.
The case against: Zion a better value
If the goal were simply to get the best player, teams would almost always trade draft picks for veterans, who are inevitably more ready to contribute. Draft picks are highly valued for their long-term potential but also because of their cost-controlled rookie contracts.
Over the next four seasons, Williamson will make an estimated total of approximately $44 million on his rookie deal. By contrast, a new max contract for Davis would start at a projected $35 million in 2020-21 assuming he declines his player options and re-signs as an unrestricted free agent.
Granted, New York wouldn't have cap space after next summer either way, assuming it's used to sign a pair of max free agents. Still, the gulf in salaries between Davis and Williamson would have important impacts. First, it means the Knicks would have no choice but to include young players in a deal for Davis. Even if Williamson was signed first to include his salary for matching purposes -- as Cleveland did with Wiggins -- New York would probably have to include three players from the group of Kevin Knox, Frank Ntilikina, Mitchell Robinson and Dennis Smith Jr. to make a legal trade for Davis after signing two max free agents.
Trading so many players for Davis would leave the Knicks with a thin roster in 2019-20. Assuming they held on to Robinson, he could be the only holdover from last season's roster to go along with Davis and two max free agents. The remainder of the roster would be made up of free agents signed either for the minimum or using the projected $4.8 million room midlevel. With so little depth, New York might not be able to take advantage of having the superior Davis on the roster immediately.
The second salary issue is that re-signing Davis in the summer of 2020 -- when he'd be due a projected $8 million raise -- would likely push the Knicks into the luxury tax, precluding them from using the larger non-taxpayer midlevel exception and limiting their flexibility. And that's assuming Davis did re-sign. New York would be taking some risk of Davis leaving if the first season with the Knicks doesn't go according to plan, in which case trading Williamson would become a disastrous mistake.
The verdict
Back before the Cavaliers had completed the Love trade, Lee Jenkins -- then a writer for Sports Illustrated, now executive director of research and identity for the LA Clippers -- discussed it with ESPN's Zach Lowe on the Lowe Post, framing Wiggins vs. Love as a question of whether Cleveland wanted its window open the longest or the widest. A similar question would apply if the Knicks won the lottery and pondered trading Williamson for Davis.
The Cavaliers' situation suggests a trade would make sense for New York. After all, one of the lessons from Cleveland is there are no guarantees about how long a window for contention will remain open. Within five years -- before Wiggins had ever developed into the kind of player who could have really helped the Cavaliers -- LeBron was taking his talents to Los Angeles.
Still, I'd be inclined to hang on to Williamson. I have far more belief in him as a prospect than I had in Wiggins, and the Knicks' roster isn't as well suited to contend immediately as Cleveland's was after years of accumulating capable young prospects in the lottery. Yes, trading for Davis would give New York the best chance of winning now, but Williamson could be part of great Knicks teams for years to come.