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ESPN- NBA draft analyst and writer
Joined ESPN.com in July 2017
Founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams
What's at stake for every team in next week's 2019 NBA draft lottery (May 14 on ESPN)?
What should each team do if it jumps into the top four under the new lottery system? And what if it stays put?
Our NBA draft experts break down the likely picks, odds and questions for the 15 franchises hoping on pingpong balls, including the favorites for Zion Williamson, the debate between Ja Morant and RJ Barrett at No. 2, traded picks and more.
Get the full scouting reports on our likely lottery prospects here
New York Knicks | Average pick: 3.7
No. 1 pick odds: 14.0 percent | Top-three pick odds: 40.2 percent
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: RJ Barrett
No. 3: Ja Morant
No. 4: Darius Garland
Most likely pick: Zion Williamson | F | Duke
The Knicks are approaching their most important offseason in recent history, with some monumental decisions that will determine whether the team is able to make consecutive playoff campaigns for the first time since the end of the '90s. Much of that will come down to the whims of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and other free agents, but how the lottery shakes out will play a huge role in how quickly the team can emerge from its rebuilding process and perhaps have the trade pieces to make a run at Anthony Davis.
Should the Knicks not land at No. 1, it will be interesting to see how they weigh the possibility of adding Irving -- along with the still intriguing potential of 21-year-old incumbent point guard Dennis Smith Jr. -- when deciding among the likes of Barrett, Morant and (to a lesser extent) Garland. -- Givony
Cleveland Cavaliers | Average pick: 4.0
No. 1 pick odds: 14.0 percent | Top-three pick odds: 40.2 percent
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: Ja Morant
No. 3: RJ Barrett
No. 4: Darius Garland
Most likely pick: Ja Morant | G | Murray State
The Cavs have a fairly clean slate with cap flexibility -- due to plenty of expiring deals for the summer of 2020 -- and future draft picks, so acquiring high-end talent is the name of the game here. As is the case for most teams, Cleveland fans should hope to land in the top three, as the consensus around the league is that there's a sizable drop-off after Morant and Barrett are off the board.
Should the Cavs land at No. 1, Williamson is clearly the choice and an excellent fit next to Kevin Love up front. The real debate comes if Cleveland ends up with No. 2. Will the Cavs select Morant with the vision that he and Collin Sexton can coexist as a dynamic backcourt of the future, or do they see Barrett as a better fit next to Sexton, a speedy 20-year-old? Facing that question would be a good problem to have. Both Morant and Barrett bring star potential, and they'd give Cleveland a franchise building block moving forward.
Should the Cavs fall to No. 4 or lower, Garland, Jarrett Culver and De'Andre Hunter will be in the mix. Although he's less proven, Garland is the most talented of the bunch. -- Schmitz
Phoenix Suns | Average pick: 4.0
No. 1 pick odds: 14 percent | Top-three pick odds: 40.2 percent
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: RJ Barrett
No. 3: Ja Morant
No. 4: Darius Garland
Most likely pick: RJ Barrett | G/F | Duke
The Suns have become a laughingstock due to years of inept management that reached a crescendo with the firing of head coach Igor Kokoskov after just one season, along with their player development staff. Confusion abounds still about their decision-making process, with Jeff Bower recently added to the front office and owner Robert Sarver flying across the country to scout NBA draft prospects in person.
The Suns will be in great position if they stay in the top four, as any of the prospects listed above would be a strong fit on the current roster. Most of the NBA seems to have Morant ahead of Barrett on the draft board, and Morant's positional fit as a point guard on a team that started the likes of De'Anthony Melton, Elie Okobo and Tyler Johnson seems to make him the natural pick here. But Barrett's potential as a big playmaker who can operate both on and off the ball in a supersized backcourt with Devin Booker, who averaged seven assists per game last season, can't be ignored. If the Suns agree with my assessment that Barrett has superior upside to Morant, they would be smart to take him if they have the chance. -- Givony
Chicago Bulls | Average pick: 4.4
No. 1 pick odds: 12.5 percent | Top-three pick odds: 36.6 percent
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: Ja Morant
No. 3: RJ Barrett
No. 4: Darius Garland
Most likely pick: Darius Garland | G | Vanderbilt
With a front line of the future already established with Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr., the Bulls figure to have their sights set on a lead guard, given Kris Dunn's erratic production and Zach LaVine's score-first mentality. To me, Morant is the clear prize should Chicago land high enough to select him, but Barrett also fits the bill as a 6-foot-7 shot-creator who can generate the majority of the Bulls' offense and play off the ball. If the Bulls cash in on their 12.5 percent odds and win the Zion sweepstakes, they'll snatch the Duke star and make it work with Markkanen and Carter.
But what about the 63.4 percent chance that Chicago lands outside the top three? At No. 4, the Bulls would be choosing between Garland and Culver, depending on whether they view the Texas Tech guard as an on-ball option. Despite an injury-riddled freshman campaign, Garland is an interesting fit, given his ability to shoot off the dribble with range, play pick-and-roll and function off the ball. Chicago could also covet Culver's size, intangibles and ability to score or facilitate out of ball screens.
If the Bulls do get No. 4, I'd lean toward Garland. -- Schmitz
Atlanta Hawks | Average pick: 5.0
No. 1 pick odds: 10.5 percent | Top-three pick odds: 31.6 percent
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: RJ Barrett
No. 3: Ja Morant
No. 4: De'Andre Hunter
Most likely pick: De'Andre Hunter | F | Virginia
With Trae Young, Kevin Huerter and John Collins making up a strong core, the Hawk can continue to add pieces to what appears to be a promising roster. Williamson is a no-brainer at No. 1, and Barrett could be a compelling fit as a backcourt mate between Atlanta's sharpshooting duo if the Hawks get No. 2 or 3. Should they land at Nos. 4 or 5, look for the Hawks to strongly consider Hunter, who brings exactly the type of versatility on both ends of the floor that they could use with this group. Hunter is attractive because he made 44 percent of his 3-pointers this season, can guard positions 1-5 and doesn't need plays called for him offensively.
The Hawks also have a 74 percent chance of getting the Mavs' first-rounder, which is expected to end up at No. 9 (barring anything crazy happening behind them). With two top-10 picks, the Hawks could afford to swing for the fences a bit. They might look to continue to fortify their frontcourt, as two intriguing options at center are likely to be available in Jaxson Hayes and Bol Bol. Both bring a degree of risk, Hayes due to his late-blooming trajectory and underwhelming productivity as a freshman and Bol due to a fractured navicular bone that forced him to miss much of the season.
Cam Reddish is another intriguing option with one of Atlanta's picks, given his size, shooting prowess and upside. -- Givony
Washington Wizards | Average pick: 5.5
No. 1 pick odds: 9.0 percent | Top-three pick odds: 27.6
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: Ja Morant
No. 3: RJ Barrett
No. 4: De'Andre Hunter
Most likely pick: Jarrett Culver | G | Texas Tech
The Wizards are in dire need of young talent. How heavily will they factor in positional need, especially if they're outside the top three like the odds suggest?
With Bradley Beal as the current face of the franchise and John Wall injured on a behemoth of a contract, would the Wizards select Culver, a ball-dominant guard? If a lead guard in Garland is still on the table, will Wall's long-term status on the roster scare the Wizards off? Can they afford to swing on a risk-reward prospect such as Reddish or Bol? Hunter is the type of high-floor, high-intangible combo forward prospect the Wizards should covet, but there's no guarantee he'll be around if they don't move up.
Washington could end up with one of Garland, Hunter or Culver, any of whom makes sense from a sheer talent perspective. -- Schmitz
New Orleans Pelicans | Average pick: 7.1
No. 1 pick odds: 6.0 percent | Top-three pick odds: 19.0 percent
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: RJ Barrett
No. 3: Ja Morant
No. 4: Darius Garland
Most likely pick: Cam Reddish | F | Duke
With franchise centerpiece Anthony Davis' trade request still hanging over this team, New Orleans is in position to pick the most talented player available regardless of need. Newly minted head of basketball operations David Griffin has the luxury of taking the long view in undergoing what will likely be an extensive rebuilding process.
Should the Pelicans stand pat, someone such as Culver could be attractive due to his versatility as a big playmaker who can also operate off the ball. If he isn't available, taking a swing on Reddish -- who came into the season projected to be picked in the top five but fell after struggling to produce -- might make sense. Because Griffin wasn't on the road scouting all year like most of his counterparts in the lottery, he'll probably have to undergo a slightly different draft process, which might rely more heavily on workouts. -- Givony
Memphis Grizzlies | Average pick: 7.1
No. 1 pick odds: 6.0 percent | Top-three pick odds: 19.0 percent
Trade considerations: The Celtics get the Grizzlies' pick if it lands outside the top eight (44.4 percent chance to convey to Boston).
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: Ja Morant
No. 3: RJ Barrett
No. 4: Darius Garland
Most likely pick: Sekou Doumbouya | F | Limoges
How Memphis views 31-year-old Mike Conley's longevity with the franchise (ETO in 2020-21) will play a role in its decision if this pick doesn't go to Boston. Electric UNC scoring guard Coby White figures to be on the board, and it's not out of the question that Garland is available even if Memphis doesn't move up.
The Grizzlies will owe their pick top-six-protected next year if they get this 2019 selection, which means they have at least some incentive to remain in rebuild mode. With that in mind, could they be the team to swing on Bol, giving them maybe the most unique frontcourt in the NBA, with two shot-blocking, 3-point-shooting bigs? Whether the Grizzlies view Jaren Jackson Jr. as a 4 or a 5 long term is a factor in regard to Bol and Hayes. French combo forward Doumbouya, Indiana scoring guard Romeo Langford and Reddish, if available, could all make some sense from talent and need perspectives.
With a restructured front office and a direction that's still evolving, the Grizzlies figure to be one of the biggest wild cards drafting in the top 10. -- Schmitz
Dallas Mavericks | Average pick: 7.1
No. 1 pick odds: 6.0 percent | Top-three pick odds: 19.0 percent
Trade considerations: The Hawks get the Mavericks' pick if it lands outside the top five (73.8 percent chance to convey to Atlanta).
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: RJ Barrett
No. 3: Ja Morant
No. 4: Darius Garland
Most likely pick: N/A
Dallas has two of the best building blocks of any team in the lottery in Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, as well as a good amount of cap space to continue adding pieces this offseason. Although the Mavs' odds of landing in the top four aren't great, they'd likely be a dream fit for Zion at No. 1 (six percent) or Garland at No. 4 (7.2 percent).
The fits of Morant and Barrett (to a lesser extent) aren't quite as ideal if Dallas ends up at No. 2 or No. 3, but the Mavs would certainly be happy to add assets to their war chest and have the flexibility to make trades. -- Givony
Minnesota Timberwolves | Average pick: 9.1
No. 1 pick odds: 3.0 percent | Top-three pick odds: 9.9 percent
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: Ja Morant
No. 3: RJ Barrett
No. 4: Darius Garland
Most likely pick: Coby White | G | UNC
The Timberwolves have an upcoming hole at point guard with Jeff Teague's deal expiring in 2020, and they're fairly covered in the bigs and wings department.
White makes the most sense if they stay in this range, as he can fit next to Teague or backup Tyus Jones as a scorer while developing his lead guard skills. But if White is off the board, there's a pretty steep drop-off between him and the next point guard available. (However, it wouldn't shock me one bit if Ty Jerome turns out to be a more valuable NBA player than White.)
A perimeter talent such as Langford also could make a lot of sense. With new president Gersson Rosas not tied to anyone on this roster, the Wolves could entertain a variety of options should they miss out on White and Garland. -- Schmitz
Los Angeles Lakers | Average pick: 10.3
No. 1 pick odds: 2.0 percent | Top-three pick odds: 6.7 percent
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: RJ Barrett
No. 3: Ja Morant
No. 4: Darius Garland
Most likely pick: Bol Bol | C | Oregon
The Lakers will likely be looking to add shooting at every position and frontcourt rim protection in what will be a pivotal offseason. It's doubtful that LeBron James and the next head coach will have much time or patience on their hands to groom a rookie, considering the expedited timetable they are on, which might lead to this pick being moved for immediate help. (If L.A. moves up, that brings its own list of complicated questions.)
Should the Lakers hold firm, drafting an older player such as Brandon Clarke -- who could develop into an all-NBA defender while being a strong, rim-running, lob-catching finisher next to LeBron -- could certainly work. If the front office decides to go for star potential, Bol brings offensive skill level and defensive length that make for a high ceiling. -- Givony
Charlotte Hornets | Average pick: No. 12.6
No. 1 pick odds: 1.0 percent | Top-three pick odds: 3.4 percent
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: Ja Morant
No. 3: RJ Barrett
No. 4: Darius Garland
Most likely pick: PJ Washington | F | Kentucky
The Hornets are a prime example of why the draft taking place before free agency isn't always beneficial to teams. I'm sure Charlotte would love to know if Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb are returning before making this pick. Should the Hornets anticipate a Walker departure, there's a shortage of lead guards in this range unless White falls.
Although a pick in the late lottery doesn't generally result in a talent who could swing a free-agent decision, it appears that drafting someone who can help the Hornets right away and add value alongside Walker would be a priority, especially after Charlotte finished two games out of the playoffs. The slow development of recent draft picks could cause the Hornets to opt for a more immediate-impact prospect such as Washington, Clarke or even Cameron Johnson.
The Hornets could also have their sights set on a center of the future such as Hayes, if he's still around, though he's more of a long-term play given his late-blooming status. -- Schmitz
Miami Heat | Average pick: 12.6
No. 1 pick odds: 1.0 percent | Top-three pick odds: 3.4 percent
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: RJ Barrett
No. 3: Ja Morant
No. 4: Darius Garland
Most likely pick: Romeo Langford | F | Indiana
Miami has a clogged salary sheet and very little star power to show for it, making this an important draft. A rebuild might be around the corner, considering this aging roster and the limited options for improvement in the short term. With that in mind, positional fit might not be as important as sheer talent and upside, which could cause the team to look at some of the younger prospects on the board, particularly those who perhaps weren't able to show the full extent of their abilities during the season.
Bol doesn't seem like an ideal fit with this team's culture, considering the questions about his approach to the game, but there is little doubt that his talent looked worthy of a much higher selection than the late lottery before he broke his foot in December. Langford tore a ligament in his shooting thumb early in the season, which likely contributed to his fall from the early lottery. His ability to create offense with the ball in his hands, play at different speeds and get into the paint is something the Heat certainly could use. -- Givony
Boston Celtics (via Kings/Grizzlies) | Average pick: 12.6
Top-three pick odds: 2.4 percent
Trade considerations: The Celtics get the Grizzlies' pick if it lands outside the top eight (44.4 percent chance to convey to Boston). The Celtics get the Kings' pick as long as it doesn't land at No. 1, in which case it goes to Philadelphia.
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: N/A
No. 2: Ja Morant
No. 3: RJ Barrett
No. 4: Darius Garland
Most likely pick: Brandon Clarke | F | Gonzaga
Irving's July free agency and the Davis trade talks will play a role in what the Celtics do with their picks -- wherever they end up. Boston comes into the lottery already holding picks Nos. 20, 22 and 51. If the picks convey, the Celtics could toss the Kings' and Grizzlies' selections into the mix for an AD trade.
Should the Celtics keep both picks (without moving into the top four) and believe Irving is on his way out of Boston, White is an option with the Memphis pick. So is Garland if his injury causes him to slide.
If Boston is selecting only at No. 14, it would make sense to go after prospects who don't need the ball to have an impact. That makes Clarke, Washington or even Tyler Herro interesting options. With Danny Ainge not afraid to swing on talent, upside plays such as Bol and Kevin Porter Jr. could enter the conversation if they're available. -- Schmitz
Philadelphia 76ers (via Kings) | Average pick: N/A
No. 1 pick odds: 1.0 percent
Trade considerations: The Sixers get the Kings' pick if it lands at No. 1
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Zion Williamson
No. 2: N/A
No. 3: N/A
No. 4: N/A
Most likely pick: N/A
The Sixers finished last this week when we ranked the best fits for Zion, and they have just a 1.0 percent chance to land him at No. 1 (via Sacramento).
If the Kings' pick doesn't move up to that top spot, the Sixers won't be part of the lottery action (barring a trade).