The Miami Heat are in a position that no team desires: headed toward the lottery with a roster that offers little flexibility to improve in the offseason.
The Heat are essentially right back where they were last offseason, though this time they missed the playoffs and they lose the leadership of Dwyane Wade.
Let's look ahead to the free-agency, draft and trade decisions facing Miami this offseason.
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The bridge season to 2020 and 2021
There is reason for hope when it comes to Miami's flexibility in the future. Mired in the luxury tax with roster restrictions, Miami is set to receive financial relief in 2020. That's when the $67 million in combined salary of Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and Ryan Anderson is set to expire. Despite the projected relief, those contracts will test the patience of the front office.
The Heat were beset with injuries this season, and 11 players from the current roster are under contract for 2019-20. There are two possible paths forward for this franchise.
The Heat could take a conservative approach, sign their own first-round pick, add minimum players and use 2019-20 as a bridge season to next summer. Or they could use that future cap space to upgrade the roster now. For example, would Miami move the contracts of Dragic and Anderson for a player such as Mike Conley? Conley is owed $34.5 million in 2020-21 and provides an upgrade, but he wipes out the $40 million in room for 2020.
And there is a downside to waiting until 2020. Other than Anthony Davis, the unrestricted free-agent class consists of headliners Draymond Green, DeMar DeRozan (player option) and Danilo Gallinari -- a significant drop-off from the 2019 free-agent class.
In 2021, only Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson and the free-agent hold of Bam Adebayo would count against the cap. Can team president Pat Riley wait two years for the 2021 free-agent class of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George, Damian Lillard, Victor Oladipo, Bradley Beal, Jrue Holiday, Rudy Gobert and Blake Griffin?
If he does, Miami could have $100 million in room to target three players on that list.
Summer cap breakdown
By removing the free-agent holds of Udonis Haslem and Duncan Robinson, Miami remains $9 million over the luxury tax before July 1. If the roster is going to show improvement, it will come from a lottery pick, scouring the free-agent/undrafted market for bargain additions or trading a big expiring contract for an upgrade. The first two options are much more likely than the latter.
The Heat do have the $5.7 million tax midlevel exception, but using the full amount would cost Miami $10 million toward the tax.
The resources available to build the roster
The draft
Cash to buy draft picks
Tax midlevel exception: $5.7 million
Dates to watch
• Don't expect Whiteside ($27.1M) or Dragic ($19.2M) to decline their player options by June 29 and become free agents. It would take two seasons for either player to recoup his 2019-20 salary if he hit the market.
• The decision to acquire Anderson at the deadline was more about the salary cap and less about basketball. The Heat were able to save $7.9 million toward the luxury tax in 2018-19 and now face a decision of whether to guarantee the full amount of the power forward's $21.3 million contract for next season. As part of his trade from Houston to Phoenix in July, Anderson reduced his guaranteed compensation from the full amount to $15.6 million. If the forward is not waived by July 10, the full amount will count against the cap.
Anderson could be used as a trade asset because of the expiring contract, with the ability to use the full amount (not just what is protected) in a trade. (Anderson's deal was signed before the 2016 beginning of the new collective bargaining agreement, which allows guaranteed amounts to be used only for trade purposes.)
If Anderson is waived, Miami should not stretch his $15.6 million contract over three seasons. The Heat will finally come up for air in 2020-21 and having a $5.2 million cap hit of a player no longer on the roster would reduce potential cap space.
• Miami has until Aug. 1 to guarantee the $1.6 million contract of Derrick Jones Jr. The 22-year-old has averaged 7.3 points in 18.2 minutes per game and is expected to be on the roster once the deadline passes.
• The Heat signed three players -- Yante Maten, Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn -- to partial/non-guaranteed contracts at the end of the season.
Maten has $100,000 protected that will increase to $150,000 if he is not waived by Aug. 1.
Robinson has $250,000 protected that will increase to $1 million if he is not waived by July 15.
The protection for Nunn will increase from $0 to $50,000 if he is not waived by July 1. He will receive an additional $100,000 if not waived by Aug. 1.
Restrictions
• The Heat owe an unprotected 2021 first-round pick to the Clippers and cannot trade a future first until 2023.
• Forward Kelly Olynyk has a trade bonus in his contract that is valued at the lesser of $2 million or 5 percent of the remaining compensation owed on his contract. If Olynyk is traded, the bonus would be worth $653,394.
• To offset the $6.27 million contract of Wayne Ellington, Miami sent Phoenix $1.8 million in cash. As a result, the Heat have $3.4 million available the night of the draft to purchase a second-round pick.
• Winslow has a poison-pill restriction in his contract that will expire on June 30. For trade purposes, the current $3.4 million salary counts as outgoing salary and $10.6 million (the average of his rookie deal and new extension) counts as incoming salary for the acquiring team.
• Maten (July 7), Robinson (July 9) and Nunn (July 10) have trade restrictions. For trade purposes, Miami would need to guarantee each player's salary to use in a transaction.
Extension candidates
For consecutive offseasons, Miami went the extension route, first with Richardson in 2017 and then Winslow in October. That trend likely will end this offseason.
James Johnson, Dion Waiters, Whiteside, Dragic, Olynyk and Anderson are eligible, with the Heat likely passing on adding years to each one of their contracts.
The draft assets
For the third time in five years, Miami will be selecting in the lottery. Though the Heat have fallen short in free agency, the college scouting department gets a B grade with the recent draft picks of Richardson, Winslow and Adebayo.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Miami selecting:
No. 13 (own): Bol Bol | C | Oregon
Miami owes the Clippers an unprotected first-round pick in 2021 and has only second-round picks in 2022 and 2025.