Which teams have improved the most early in free agency, and what is still to come?
Team-by-team analysis of the major and minor deals:
Note: Updates on each deal will be posted here throughout the day. Latest addition: P.J. Tucker joining the Rockets.
Boston Celtics
1. Signed 2016 first-round pick Ante Zizic to a rookie contract
2. Agreed to a reported two-year deal with forward Daniel Theis
In addition to signing this year's No. 3 overall pick, Jayson Tatum, the Celtics also announced the addition of last year's No. 23 pick. (Rookie contracts for first-round picks are among a handful of deals that can be signed during the moratorium.) Zizic ranked ninth in my 2016 consensus draft projections and backed that up with another solid season split between the Adriatic League -- where he dominated -- and playing tougher competition in EuroLeague with Turkish club Darussafaka Dogus Istanbul.
Depending how the offseason goes, Zizic could start at center for Boston this season. He'd probably play limited minutes in that role with Al Horford finishing games in the middle, but Zizic can hold his own. He's an ultra-high-percentage finisher and an excellent offensive rebounder. Defensively, Zizic projects as a below-average shot blocker and rebounder, but not a liability on that end.
The Celtics also agreed to a long-rumored two-year contract with Theis, a combo big whose projections are similar to Zizic's. Theis had FIBA 3-point range but may struggle to shoot accurately from the NBA 3-point line. Though just 6-foot-9, he blocks enough shots to potentially play some center. Besides size, the big difference between the two players is age. Theis is close to maxed out at age 25 where Zizic is just 20 and can be expected to develop into a quality starter.
Charlotte Hornets
1. Agreed to a reported one-year, $2.7 million deal with guard Michael Carter-Williams
On a one-year deal, Carter-Williams looks like a decent buy-low candidate. As bad as he was last season with the Chicago Bulls, Carter-Williams' sub-replacement play was largely due to an uncharacteristically poor 40.1 percent accuracy on 2-point attempts. He's a career 43.9 percent 2-point shooter who had made 47.2 percent the season before. My SCHOENE projection system forecasts him bouncing back in 2017-18.
The Hornets were in desperate need of a cheap option at backup point guard. Assuming they plan to fill out their roster with minimum-salary players (including second-round pick Dwayne Bacon), they could afford to spend about $3 million on a backup point guard and remain under the luxury-tax line.
Some teams in that situation might start the season in the tax and plan to get under with a trade. That would be difficult for Charlotte, which has almost all its sizable salary tied up in players who are part of the rotation.
Chicago Bulls
1. Agreed to a reported four-year, $32 million deal with center Cristiano Felicio
I'm not sure I understand the Bulls' urgency to move so quickly to lock up Felicio, a restricted free agent. That's nothing against Felicio, who was a nice find for Chicago as an undrafted free agent who has grown into a rotation piece. He'll turn 25 next week but still has some upside to explore because of his inexperience. Felicio's defensive mobility is a plus for a center, and he's an excellent offensive rebounder.
Instead, my concern is more that the market for backup centers is likely to yield plenty of bargains as free agency unfolds. We haven't quite reached the point where NBA centers are like NFL running backs in terms of fungibility, but we're moving in that direction. Dewayne Dedmon, Mike Muscala, Willie Reed and Alan Williams are all centers of similar value, and some of those guys are likely going to come much cheaper in terms of both years and dollars. So I would have waited for someone else to set the market.
Cleveland Cavaliers
1. Agreed to a reported one-year, minimum deal with guard Jose Calderon
I'm surprised Calderon is the veteran point guard on whom the Cavaliers have settled, presumably as a replacement for unrestricted free agent Deron Williams. Calderon comes cheap, certainly, at the veteran's minimum. And his shooting should make him a good fit playing off the ball alongside either LeBron James or Kyrie Irving. Before shooting 31.3 percent on 3s last season, Calderon had been better than 40 percent the four previous years.
It's the defensive end of the court where things get dicey. Calderon lacks the quickness to keep point guards in front of him, which will be problematic playing in second-unit lineups short on rim protection. If Cleveland does trade Iman Shumpert as rumored, a Cavaliers bench with Calderon, a re-signed Kyle Korver and Channing Frye could light up scoreboards at both ends of the court.
Since every decision Cleveland makes has to be filtered through a possible meeting with the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals, Calderon doesn't figure to be able to stay on the court in that matchup any more than Williams could last season.
Detroit Pistons
1. Agreed to a reported three-year, $21 million deal with guard Langston Galloway
This is the first true head-scratcher of free agency. Because of the Pistons' precarious luxury-tax situation, they figured to be quiet this summer aside from bringing back restricted free agent Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. It's unclear whether this deal is a signal Detroit plans to let Caldwell-Pope walk if he gets a near-max offer (with Galloway as a cheaper replacement) or hopes to re-sign him and stay under the luxury-tax apron.
As ESPN's Bobby Marks noted, giving Galloway more than the taxpayer portion of the midlevel exception means the Pistons are now hard-capped at $6 million more than the tax level. That would mean paying Caldwell-Pope at most about $19.5 million this season barring a trade to clear salary. If he tests the market, I think Caldwell-Pope could easily beat that in an offer sheet.
Individually, this contract is tough to evaluate. On the plus side, this deal pays Galloway almost exactly what my multi-year projections suggest he'll be worth over the next three seasons (a little shy of $21 million). However, Galloway found the market tepid last summer as a restricted free agent, joining the New Orleans Pelicans on a two-year deal starting at $5.2 million with a player option that allowed him to return to free agency this summer. It was unclear the competition for his services would be much fiercer after a quiet season split between New Orleans and the Sacramento Kings.
Given its larger ramifications on the Pistons' future, we won't really be able to evaluate the Galloway contract until we find out what happens next.
Golden State Warriors
1. Agreed to a reported five-year, $201 million deal with guard Stephen Curry
2. Agreed to a reported three-year, $24 million deal with guard Shaun Livingston
3. Agreed to a reported one-year deal with forward David West
4. Agreed to a reported three-year, $48 million deal with swingman Andre Iguodala
For a defending champion, the Warriors have a surprisingly busy summer with 10 free agents. They checked the first four off the list within the opening 24 hours of free agency.
Curry becomes the first player to take advantage of the NBA's new designated veteran rule, colloquially known as the "supermax." The rule, part of the new collective bargaining agreement that goes into effect for the 2017-18 season, allows Curry to make 35 percent of the cap instead of the usual 30 percent for a player of his experience. That means Curry's five-year, $201 million deal is the largest in NBA history.
Since Curry would be able to take advantage of the designated veteran exception only by re-signing with Golden State -- and because, you know, the Warriors won their second championship in three years -- his return was always a foregone conclusion. The major point of note here is that Curry did not get a player option on the final season of his deal.
Livingston's return wasn't quite so automatic. He's 31 but carries additional wear and tear because of the devastating knee injury he suffered more than a decade ago playing for the Clippers. Livingston's minutes have already been limited to less than 20 per night, and his box score production slipped badly last season.
At the same time, Livingston's size means he's still an effective defender despite losing a half-step, and he remained effective as part of Golden State's small lineups. This deal feels like a good balance between the Warriors rewarding Livingston for his important role and protecting themselves against further decline.
According to ESPN's Zach Lowe, the first two seasons are fully guaranteed at $8 million each, with Livingston's 2019-20 salary $2 million guaranteed. That's actually similar to the structure of the contract Livingston just finished. Golden State hopes this one goes similarly well.
Having enjoyed the opportunity to win a championship at age 36 (he'll turn 37 next month), West seemed certain to return to Golden State unless he retired. I'd expect West's minutes to be curtailed further next season from the limited role he played in 2016-17 (12.6 MPG). Still, those were strong minutes off the bench because of West's playmaking from the high post, so he's an important piece to have back in the fold.
After a bit more drama, including taking meetings with the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs, Iguodala agreed to re-up Saturday night after the Warriors increased their offer to $48 million over three years. That salary will be costly for Golden State in terms of luxury tax, particularly in 2019-20, when the team will almost certainly be in the repeater tax and Klay Thompson could be in the first season of a new, larger contract.
By that point, Iguodala will be 36 and almost certainly overpaid, even if the Warriors opt to start his contract high and have it descend 8 percent each year instead of the typical 8 percent raises. (It's no wonder their original offer was only partially guaranteed in Year 3, per ESPN's Chris Haynes and Adrian Wojnarowski.) That's OK given Iguodala's current importance to Golden State's best lineups and in the matchup with the Cavaliers. As promising as Patrick McCaw's rookie year was, he's a long, long way from supplanting Iguodala in terms of effectiveness.
Iguodala is worth it, and more importantly, the Warriors' future is worth it. With championships at stake, this was no time for Golden State management to get cute, particularly after Kevin Durant agreed to take less money this summer by planning to re-sign using non-Bird rights instead of forcing the Warriors to clear cap space to pay him the maximum possible salary -- a move that would have forced Golden State to renounce the rights to Iguodala and Livingston and made it nearly impossible to bring Iguodala back.
There's still business left for the Warriors, who don't currently have a starting center under contract. They can pay incumbent Zaza Pachulia up to about $3.5 million this season using non-Bird rights or dip into their taxpayer midlevel exception to offer up to $5.2 million to Pachulia or his replacement. Still, now that Iguodala's back, the most important work for Golden State's front office is already wrapped up.
Houston Rockets
1. Agreed to a multi-year deal with center Zhou Qi
2. Agreed to a reported four-year, $32 million deal with forward P.J. Tucker
Zhou has been working out in Houston since the end of his season in China, so it's no surprise that the Rockets are adding the No. 43 pick of last year's draft to what is currently a roster with plenty of spots available.
My draft projections loved Zhou because of his strong production relative to his listed age of 20 at the time of last year's draft. Alas, Zhou's age has long been a matter of dispute among scouts, who suspected he was up to three years older. Projecting Zhou as a 23-year-old would have dropped his statistical projection from the best in the draft to 16th.
There's also the curious matter of Zhou's production in the Chinese CBA, which has been trending the wrong direction. Here's how his translated statistics compare over the past three seasons:
With hindsight, Zhou's 69.6 percent 2-point shooting in 2014-15 was almost certainly fluky; he's made just 57.9 percent of his 2-pointers since then. Zhou's block rate wasn't so much fluky as it was unsustainable; no NBA regular blocked more than 8.0 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts last season.
Even Zhou's more recent translations suggest an NBA-caliber player if he can overcome a significant strength deficit. He's an incredible shot blocker and has improved on the defensive glass to the point of adequacy. Add in Zhou's ability to stretch out to the FIBA 3-point line (20-of-55 last season in the CBA) and he's an intriguing prospect, though probably not someone Houston can count on contributing right away.
As soon as the Rockets were able to trade for Chris Paul, staying over the cap and retaining their non-taxpayer midlevel exception, Tucker became a logical target. Houston was in need of depth at the forward spots, and unless you expect Luc Richard Mbah a Moute to maintain last year's shooting, Tucker is the best midlevel target who can defend both forward positions while also competently spacing the floor.
At this point, Tucker is probably better defending power forwards -- the position he originally played in college before converting to small forward as a pro -- than he is against wings. That makes him a good match for Rockets starting small forward Trevor Ariza, who's more comfortable defending perimeter players.
While Tucker doesn't figure to start unless Houston finds a deal to move incumbent power forward Ryan Anderson, he could finish games as part of smaller lineups and will be particularly valuable from a matchup perspective in the playoffs. (Which is to say against the Warriors.)
Presumably, the Rockets plan to use part of their midlevel to sign Zhou to a contract longer than two years and the remainder on Tucker. If Zhou is making the minimum, that would leave enough to pay Tucker $32.6 million over four years. The length of the contract could get ugly, given Tucker will turn 36 during the 2021 postseason. That's the price Houston was willing to pay to maximize its chances of winning now.
An alternative possibility is the Rockets could try to convince Tucker's former team, the Toronto Raptors, to make a sign-and-trade deal sending back the non-guaranteed contracts they accumulated earlier this week. Such a deal would allow them to instead use part of the midlevel to re-sign Nene after Friday's snafu in which he agreed with the team on a contract that was illegal because of the CBA's over-38 rule. (ESPN's Bobby Marks has more on why that contract didn't work.)
Whether by using the full midlevel or via sign-and-trade, adding Tucker means Houston will be hard-capped like Detroit. That gives the Rockets about $20 million to fill out the six remaining spots on their roster -- and ideally there would be some wiggle room for midseason trades -- probably ending the idea of trading for Iman Shumpert using non-guaranteed contracts, which would take up $10.3 million of that total.
Indiana Pacers
1. Traded Paul George to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis
You can find my trade grades for the Paul George deal here.
LA Clippers
1. Agreed to a reported five-year, $173 million deal with forward Blake Griffin
I wrote about the next steps for the Clippers with Griffin returning here.
1. Signed guard Wayne Selden to a multi-year deal
2. Signed guard Kobi Simmons
The Grizzlies quietly declined a team option for Selden, who actually started two games for them in the playoffs, in order to quickly re-sign him to a multi-year deal. Despite his surprisingly large role -- he also started his NBA debut while playing for the New Orleans Pelicans before rejoining Memphis, for whose D-League affiliate he'd played after attending training camp -- Selden wasn't particularly effective. He's an aspirational 3-and-D wing who shot just 7-of-28 on 3s during the regular season and 2-of-11 during the playoffs.
Since the Grizzlies announced these moves as completed yesterday and only minimum-salary contracts can become official during the current moratorium, it's safe to assume both Selden and Simmons -- undrafted out of Arizona, where he played just one year -- will be making the minimum. Simmons is a long-term project who's nowhere near close to NBA caliber at age 20 (his birthday is Tuesday) but could eventually develop into a combo guard.
Milwaukee Bucks
1. Agreed to a reported four-year, $46 million deal with forward Tony Snell
The Bucks have a history of taking care of business quickly with their restricted free agents. That worked out well with Khris Middleton two years ago -- his five-year, $70 million deal has proved an enormous bargain -- and should work reasonably well with Snell this time around.
By agreeing to terms quickly with Snell, Milwaukee heads off the possibility of another team coming in with an offer sheet that could have made it difficult for the Bucks to match and avoid the tax. Even this deal leaves them too close to the tax line to add a 15th player and stay under, assuming standard 8 percent raises. But Milwaukee is close enough that waiving Spencer Hawes and stretching his 2017-18 salary would give the team some wiggle room.
From Snell's standpoint, he avoids the risk that the market dries up quickly for restricted free agents. Given he hasn't made much money to date -- less than $7 million total on his rookie contract as the 20th overall pick -- Snell can feel good about locking in eight figures per year. Note that this deal includes a total of $2 million in unlikely incentives.
Minnesota Timberwolves
1. Agreed to a reported three-year, $57 million deal with guard Jeff Teague
Hours after trading Ricky Rubio to the Utah Jazz, the Timberwolves have his replacement, and it could have been worse.
Teague will make about $4 million more than Rubio over the next two seasons before a $19.9 million player option for 2019-20. He's also more than two years older, and Teague's age makes this very much a win-now move for Minnesota. Given the two years for which the Timberwolves have Jimmy Butler under contract, that might make sense despite the fact that young cornerstones Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are 21 and 22, respectively.
Absent context, I'd probably rather have Rubio than Teague, at least for the regular season. (How Rubio's game will play in the postseason remains to be seen.) Teague is a downgrade in terms of playmaking and defense. And the upgrade in terms of shooting is probably somewhat overrated. Outside a fluky 40 percent season from 3-point range in 2015-16 with the Atlanta Hawks, Teague has hovered around league average on relatively low volume. He averaged just 3.4 3-point attempts per 36 minutes last season.
That noted, Teague is a far more efficient scorer than Rubio overall. Despite a slow start, he posted a career-best .574 true shooting percentage last season while playing with less attacking talent around him than he'll enjoy in Minnesota.
This signing leaves the Timberwolves with about $15 million in space remaining, assuming they renounce the rights to all their free agents. That should be enough to shop for one more starter or key reserve. Minnesota could still use an upgrade on Nemanja Bjelica as a stretch-4 and has no depth behind Butler and Wiggins on the wing.
New Orleans Pelicans
1. Agreed to a reported five year, $123 million deal with guard Jrue Holiday
You can find my analysis of the Holiday deal and the Pelicans' future here.
New York Knicks
1. Agreed to a reported two-year deal with guard Ron Baker
Undrafted out of Wichita State, Baker made the Knicks in training camp and ended up starting 13 games and playing 857 minutes on a one-year contract. A restricted free agent, Baker broke the news of his own new contract on Twitter, later telling reporters it's a two-year deal.
Though New York used Baker primarily at point guard last season, he's really more of a combo guard, the role he played in college. Baker's assist rate was below-average for a point guard, as was his turnover rate. To be a useful NBA player, Baker will also have to bounce back from 3-point range. A 36.9 percent career 3-point shooter at Wichita State, Baker shot just 26.7 percent from the NBA line as a rookie, a major reason his true shooting percentage was a dismal .456.
Philadelphia 76ers
1. Agreed to a reported one-year, $23 million contract with guard JJ Redick
2. Agreed to a reported one-year, $11 million contract with center Amir Johnson
On Friday, ESPN's Zach Lowe reported that the Sixers would pursue one-year contracts with veteran free agents. I think that is a wise strategy. Philadelphia has cap space to burn this summer -- up to nearly $50 million, depending on some non-guarantees -- but didn't necessarily want to commit to a long-term deal for an aging shooting guard.
For the upcoming season, Redick supplies badly needed floor spacing for the 76ers. Throughout Brett Brown's tenure, Philadelphia has been among the league leaders in 3-point attempts (seventh last year in 3s as a percent of all shot attempts) without the kind of shooters necessary to pull off a high-volume 3-point attack. The Sixers' 34.0 percent accuracy last season ranked 24th in the league.
Now that Philadelphia has multiple shot creators with Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons joining Joel Embiid, a role player alongside them was even more of a priority. Redick is certainly a phenomenal spot-up option -- he shot 44.9 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s last year, good for sixth among players who averaged at least three such shots per game according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats. He's also dangerous occupying defenders on the weak side with his ability to come off pindowns to shoot or find an open teammate, something Brown should enjoy using to his team's advantage.
Defensively, Redick is excellent in a help role and has developed into a capable one-on-one defender but isn't quite the kind of stopper against point guards that would be ideal alongside Fultz. As Redick gets deeper into his 30s and loses athleticism, his size may become more of a defensive shortcoming.
That may be some other team's problem, depending what Philadelphia is able to do in free agency next summer. I'd expect Avery Bradley, a plus defender who's also six and a half years younger than Redick, to be the 76ers' No. 1 target. They could also find a shooting guard in the draft or in-house with the development of Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. Either way, Philadelphia will have a better idea of what it's willing to commit to Redick or another veteran in a year.
From Redick's standpoint, this is a welcome payday. He's never made more than $7.4 million in a season, an amount he'll triple in 2017-18. Barring injury, Redick should remain productive enough to still lock in a final lucrative, long-term deal next summer from the Sixers or someone else.
Signing Johnson is a bit trickier to understand, even though I like him as a player. Johnson is a longtime RPM favorite who ranked 21st in the league last season and is probably underrated because people best remember his inability to stretch the floor or defend on the perimeter alongside Al Horford in the playoffs.
Johnson should probably be a full-time center at this point, and that means joining a crowded rotation with Richaun Holmes and Jahlil Okafor behind Joel Embiid. Certainly, Embiid's health means Philadelphia needs depth at the position, but even on a one-year deal that should come cheaper than $11 million.
Ultimately, the 76ers probably wouldn't have done much else with the money, and this trade will look better if they can move Okafor. I'm mostly concerned it means Philadelphia doesn't trust Holmes, who was effective in extended minutes after Embiid was sidelined for the season.
With the Sixers roster now at 15 players including non-guarantees and 2016 first-round pick Furkan Korkmaz (who exercised the NBA buyout clause in his contract with Anadolu Efes, according to Eurobasket.com), their remaining $15 million or so in cap space may be earmarked for a renegotiation and extension of starting small forward Robert Covington's minimum-salary contract. Philadelphia could renegotiate Covington's 2017-18 salary upward and then have his salary decrease up to 40 percent in 2018-19, allowing him to make as much in new money as he would in unrestricted free agency while counting less against the cap in 2018-19 and beyond.
San Antonio Spurs
1. Agreed to a reported four-year, $50 million deal with guard Patty Mills
Because he hit free agency right as he underwent shoulder surgery that sidelined him the first two months of the 2014-15 season, Mills was one of the league's best bargains on his previous three-year, $11 million deal. This time around, a healthy Mills was able to cash in.
I'm a little bummed that my dream of seeing Mills go to an offense-starved team and try to put together Dana Barros' 1994-95 season will apparently never come to fruition. That idea was probably a tough sell for someone who has known only success with San Antonio over the last four seasons, and Mills also managed to make out well financially.
A four-year deal could get a little dicey for Mills, who will be pushing 33 by the end of it and relies heavily on his quickness. (His shooting is a positive factor in how Mills will age. His small stature is a negative one.) Still, I project Mills' production as worth $46 million over the next three seasons, so even if he fades quickly after that, this should be a reasonable contract.
Additionally, the Spurs can take advantage of Mills' small $6.8 million cap hold if they decide to use cap space. They could create up to about $13 million in space while also retaining Bryn Forbes and the rights to David Lee and Jonathon Simmons. Alternatively, they can stay over the cap and use exceptions to re-sign several free agents in the name of depth and continuity. Stay tuned.
Utah Jazz
1. Utah traded a protected first-round pick for guard Ricky Rubio
2. Agreed to a reported four-year, $52 million deal with forward Joe Ingles
You can read my grades of the Rubio trade here.
Less than three years removed from being claimed off waivers by the Jazz on a non-guaranteed, minimum-salary contract and two years removed from re-signing with Utah as a restricted free agent for two years and $4.5 million, Ingles improbably emerged as one of the top 3-and-D wings on the market.
Ingles picked the right time to hit restricted free agency, having shot 44.1 percent from beyond the arc last season while also supplying secondary playmaking and the ability to defend multiple positions. Last year's 3-point shooting looks suspiciously like an outlier after Ingles shot 35.6 and 38.6 percent during his first two seasons. He'll also turn 30 early in training camp, meaning a four-year deal takes Ingles deep into the decline phase of his career.
Odds are that Ingles will be a fringe rotation player by the end of this contract -- heck, that was set to be his role last year before injuries gave him the opportunity to play additional minutes -- and this contract will still be paying him like a fringe starter.
I understand the tough position the Jazz were in here. Had Ingles left and Utah re-signed Gordon Hayward, the team would have had only the midlevel exception to replace him. Ingles' relationship with Hayward -- as Adrian Wojnarowski tweeted after breaking the news, the two players share an agent and are close friends -- also surely added urgency as the Jazz prepare to meet with Hayward on Monday. Utah didn't do this deal because of that relationship, and Ingles surely could have commanded a similar offer on the open market. But the Jazz might have found it easier to walk away under different circumstances.