What's next for the LA Clippers after reportedly agreeing to re-sign forward Blake Griffin to a maximum five-year deal worth an estimated $173 million?
Securing Griffin's agreement to stay was necessary for the Clippers to remain competitive after trading Chris Paul to the Houston Rockets earlier this week under the threat of Paul signing with the Rockets outright as a free agent. Yet it remains to be seen how successful a roster built around Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and a group of role players can be in the Western Conference.
How else can the Clippers bolster their roster? And what does re-signing Griffin mean to their long-term future? Let's take a look.
Next steps for Clippers
Adding in Griffin's maximum salary gives the Clippers about $104 million committed to 11 players under contract. That leaves them about $15 million below the projected luxury-tax line, just enough to make for an interesting decision on whether to use the full non-taxpayer midlevel exception.
If the Clippers use more than the $5 million taxpayer portion of their midlevel, they'll be hard-capped at the luxury-tax apron, $4 million above the tax line. That might make it difficult to re-sign starting small forward Luc Mbah a Moute using his early Bird rights and would limit the Clippers' flexibility with in-season trades. Such hard-cap complications led to the disastrous Jared Dudley trade that cost the Clippers this year's first-round pick. Alternatively, the Clippers could use the taxpayer portion and not have to worry about their payroll.
It will be interesting to see whether the Clippers prioritize Mbah a Moute, who is coming off the best offensive season of his career. He shot 39.1 percent from 3-point range, out of character for a 32.4 percent career shooter. Mbah a Moute's perimeter defense is a tad less valuable with Austin Rivers likely to replace JJ Redick as the Clippers' starting shooting guard, and his age (31 in September) makes it unlikely he'll match the season he just had. I'd be careful.
Ideally, the Clippers would put a better shooter at small forward next to Griffin to give him maximum space to operate in the pick-and-roll game with Jordan. Paul's departure clears the way for Griffin to take on more ballhandling responsibility, particularly playing alongside a point guard (Patrick Beverley) used to playing off the ball next to James Harden in Houston.
As it is, we'll probably see the Clippers finish most games with Rivers at small forward, making room for either Lou Williams or Jamal Crawford in the backcourt alongside Beverley.
Projecting the 2017-18 Clippers
Because they got three rotation players in return for Paul, the Clippers' roster is relatively complete at the start of free agency. Here's how ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) projects a plausible rotation.
RPM sees this as a relatively average team at both ends of the court, forecasting an average of between 42 and 43 wins. Of course, there's a wide range of uncertainty here, and much of it has to do with Griffin.
On the upside, Griffin has been more effective playing without Paul. He averaged 22.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.9 assists in the 11 games he played last season while Paul was sidelined by a sprained thumb despite coming back from a knee surgery of his own.
Alternatively, another injury like the ones that have plagued Griffin in recent seasons could be devastating to the Clippers' playoff chances. They played 10 games last season without both stars and went 3-7 in those games. While there's better depth on the perimeter now thanks to the Paul trade, it's unlikely the Clippers could maintain .500 basketball without their primary shot creator.
Looking ahead to the summer of 2018
Remarkably, Griffin is now the first player on the Clippers' books for 2018-19 with fully guaranteed salary and no options. Wesley Johnson, Jordan and Rivers all have player options. The Clippers hold team options on Sam Dekker and Brice Johnson that must be exercised by Oct. 31, Crawford's salary is just $3 million guaranteed, and Beverley's is fully non-guaranteed.
Some of those contracts surely will end up on the Clippers' 2018-19 cap. Wesley Johnson is unlikely to beat his player option in free agency, the team options are both modest enough to be worth picking up, and barring serious injury, Beverley is a bargain at $5 million.
Still, the Clippers will probably have between $40 million and $50 million in cap space next summer. That doesn't include cap holds for Jordan and Rivers, whom the Clippers will want back, but it gives them the opportunity to pivot quickly if free agents are interested in joining Griffin in L.A. (For that matter, in an extreme situation, the Clippers could probably trade Griffin, having held the line at giving him a no-trade clause as part of this contract, according to ESPN's Ramona Shelburne.)
The concern for the Clippers comes deeper into the contract. Griffin will be 33 by the end of this deal, and his aforementioned history of injury -- particularly arthroscopic surgeries on both knees, plus a fractured left patella that sidelined Griffin his entire first NBA season -- bodes poorly for him continuing to perform at an All-Star level by that point. The Clippers might ultimately rue giving Griffin a full five-year max.
At the same time, the Clippers might not have kept Griffin without the fifth year. And re-signing him allows them to retain some hope of competing next season and beyond without Paul.