In an era in which most top prospects enter the NBA after spending just one year in college, there's only a limited relationship between playing well as a rookie and long-term success. After all, the 2010-11 All-Rookie First Team included Landry Fields and Gary Neal, but not Eric Bledsoe, Derrick Favors, Greg Monroe or Paul George.
As a result, most projections for draft picks wisely focus on production over several years rather than immediate results. But my WARP projections are built on translations that convert NCAA and international performance to its NBA equivalents, adjusted for a year of player development. Therefore, we can use them to project the players who will be most effective as rookies.
I've ranked players here based on the rookie version of the consensus projections that incorporate where a player was drafted along with their past performance, factoring in the opinions of NBA scouts. Players are ranked on their winning percentage, the per-minute version of my wins-above-replacement player stat akin to PER. Let's take a look at the top 10.
1. Karl-Anthony Towns
Team: Minnesota Timberwolves
Pick: No. 1 overall
Win percentage: .514
Towns ranks just sixth going purely on statistical translations, but his status as the No. 1 overall pick lifts him to the top of the list. That's reasonable, because even if he takes his lumps offensively while learning to play in the post, per Flip Saunders' plan for his development, Towns will be a useful rebounder and defender from day one.
2. Frank Kaminsky
Team: Charlotte Hornets
Pick: No. 9 overall
Win percentage: .514
As a four-year college player who's already 22, Kaminsky is unlikely to be the best pro from the 2015 draft. There's a reasonable chance, maybe even a good one, that he's the best player as a rookie. After all, Kaminsky won every major player-of-the-year trophy in college. Lest that be construed as a guarantee of immediate NBA success, however, keep in mind that Doug McDermott accomplished the same feat the year before.
3. Delon Wright
Team: Toronto Raptors
Pick: No. 20 overall
Win percentage: .512
Wright's well-rounded game placed him second in the NCAA in win shares last season behind Kaminsky, per Sports-Reference.com. Alas, it's unclear how much opportunity Wright will have to contribute as a rookie now that the Raptors have also signed Cory Joseph to back up All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry.
4. D'Angelo Russell
Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: No. 2 overall
Win percentage: .503
In part because he played more minutes than Towns, Russell led all freshmen in win shares. His shaky performance in Las Vegas during summer league should temper expectations for his rookie season to some extent, since it is predictive of performance for rookies. However, it's unlikely Russell will shoot so poorly from 3-point range (he shot 2-for-17, 11.8 percent in Vegas) over a larger sample after making 41 percent of his 3s at Ohio State.
5. Kristaps Porzingis
Team: New York Knicks
Pick: No. 4 overall
Win percentage: .497
I think the widespread notion that Porzingis is a project is somewhat overstated. While the box score can't necessarily capture his issues dealing with stronger opponents, Porzingis was a productive player in a competitive ACB league in Spain last season. And he held his own in Vegas, averaging 18.4 points and 3.1 blocks per 36 minutes -- albeit with just 5.7 rebounds per 36.
6. R.J. Hunter
Team: Boston Celtics
Pick: No. 28 overall
Win percentage: .473
Hunter is a favorite of my projections because of his frequent 3-point attempts and high steal and block rates. After missing his first eight shots during the first two nights of the Utah Summer League, he righted the ship and made almost 39 percent of his 3s the rest of the way. Hunter bolstered his efficiency by attempting 5.4 free throws per game. But he'll have to improve at containing the ball on the perimeter to make use of his offensive skills as a rookie.
7. Willie Cauley-Stein
Team: Sacramento Kings
Pick: No. 6 overall
Win percentage: .466
In all likelihood, Cauley-Stein will be the best defensive rookie. He was a dominant shot blocker at summer league, swatting 14 attempts in 111 minutes. Cauley-Stein also showed surprising offensive potential against summer opposition, averaging 18.5 points per 36 minutes.
8. Jahlil Okafor
Team: Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: No. 3 overall
Win percentage: .459
Given his role and skills, there's a good chance Okafor is the most productive rookie in terms of traditional per-game stats. Still, the summer reinforced that even a player as skilled as Okafor will have to make adjustments to NBA-caliber defenders. He shot just 44 percent from the field and his true shooting percentage was basically identical to his shooting percentage because Okafor made just 39.1 percent of his free throw attempts.
9. Cameron Payne
Team: Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick: No. 14 overall
Win percentage: .457
We didn't get a chance to see Payne this summer because of a fractured finger he suffered on his non-shooting hand during pre-draft workouts. The injury shouldn't hold Payne back much, but with Russell Westbrook and D.J. Augustin ahead of him on the depth chart, he's unlikely to see regular minutes as a rookie.
10. Sam Dekker
Team: Houston Rockets
Pick: No. 18 overall
Win percentage: .457
Like Payne, Dekker did not see any action during summer league due to minor injury -- in his case, a sore lower back. And Dekker, too, will have to beat out veterans for playing time as a rookie, along with second-year wing K.J. McDaniels. If called upon, his translated college stats suggest Dekker will be ready.