Evaluating rookies is a tough proposition in the dog days of summer. We've already watched and rewatched hours of game footage from their collegiate/D-League/international careers, analyzed predraft intel and crossed off names from the draft board.
We then tracked their performances in summer league, where they tried out their skill sets in skeleton systems with quasi-NBA talent as teammates and opponents. But none of this really gives us a good indication of who these players will be when the ball tips in late October, after informal pickup games at the practice facility, training camp and the preseason.
The reality is that not even the first few months of the regular season can give us an accurate depiction of what lies in store for some of these prospects. Noah Vonleh was a lottery pick last season, got stuck on the bench and was eventually shipped out to Portland after only one season in Charlotte. He's also just 19 years old, so to judge his prospects off such a limited body of work is irresponsible.
Rather, what most people care about is rookie readiness. Think of it like buying furniture from IKEA: some stuff comes out of the box ready to be placed in a corner with no assembly required, but many of the cooler items need you to grab that funny little wrench-like tool and unintelligible instruction sheet before attempting to make an armoire out of some wooden planks and pegs.
To that end, we developed the Rookie Readiness Scale as a means of measuring and quantifying the preparedness of first-year players when the season starts. "Readiness" to contribute is a nuanced concept. Some rookies have the fortune of playing on teams with low expectations and an abundance of available playing time. Others have mastered a singular skill that will be useful right away in an NBA game -- like an elite touch from deep or bringing high energy with every appearance.
The Readiness Scale, which is modeled after the metric-based player evaluations I utilized as a scout with the Phoenix Suns, measures a rookie's "readiness to contribute," as well as his projected ceiling and long-term potential role. By rating the rookies via five different categories -- physical attributes, offensive skills, defensive skills, basketball IQ and intangibles -- we get a composite score that gives us an idea of what type of contribution we can expect from each player this season.
The scale runs from 0-100; the closer to a threshold the rating is, the more the player trends toward the adjacent category.
Remember, "readiness" and "ceiling potential" are two different concepts, and it's not uncommon for players who are unready to contribute now to blossom into starters or even star players later.
Rotation-caliber rookies
1. Karl-Anthony Towns
Team: Minnesota Timberwolves
Readiness: 67.5
Ceiling: 90.0
Towns might not have wowed in the box score at summer league, but he displayed all the pieces of his game that had talent evaluators proclaiming him the consensus No. 1 overall pick in the pre-draft process. He was able to showcase the perimeter skills that carried him through high school -- skills he wasn't able to exhibit at Kentucky, like shooting from the outside or busting out in transition after a defensive rebound. He'll have a learning curve, like all rookies, but he also has aguably the best mentor on any NBA bench to tutor him through his first season in Kevin Garnett. Looking forward, Towns projects to be a fixture among the NBA's elite as a true two-way player.
2. Frank Kaminsky
Team: Charlotte Hornets
Readiness: 61.0
Ceiling: 68.5
For all the ridicule the Hornets front office received for reportedly turning down a king's ransom in picks from the Boston Celtics, they nailed one thing for sure: unlike many of their other recent draftees, who have been projects, Kaminsky comes in with a ready-made skill set to fill a role on this team. As a high-level shooting big and a good passer from the high post, Kaminsky walks into a situation tailor-made for him. He can play alongside Al Jefferson as a nice counterpoint. Defense remains a humongous issue and a serious limitation on how good he can be long term, but he'll have a place in this league as long as he's a 7-footer who can put the ball through the hoop from beyond the arc (just ask his teammate, Spencer Hawes).
3. Jahlil Okafor
Team: Philadelphia 76ers
Readiness: 60.0
Ceiling: 78.0
Okafor has a specific skill set in his around-the-basket game. Unfortunately, it's difficult to incorporate that skill set into meaningful team offense without adequate shooting, either by the player or his teammates, and Okafor has neither. He'll get the lion's share of minutes, touches and shots in Philadelphia by default, and probably stands the best chance of leading all rookies in scoring this season, but that doesn't hide his shortcomings.
He posted decent numbers in both the Utah and Vegas summer leagues, and like Towns, he did everything we expected him to do. He had a strong presence on the offensive glass, cleared out space and operated under the rim, remained a defensive liability andd struggled away from the basket and against length. Those issues will be exacerbated against higher caliber competition. He's got the IQ and feel to figure it out in time, but the spacing issues will continue to figure into any roster architecture where he's a centerpiece.
4. Justin Anderson
Team: Dallas Mavericks
Readiness: 54.5
Ceiling: 65.5
A lot of Anderson's readiness hinges on his ability to knock down the 3-point shot consistently. He did it in summer league to the tune of 38.5 percent, but that didn't come without its fair share of inconsistency, as he started 4-of-20 in his first three games before finishing 11-19 in his last three. Still, Anderson will win minutes mainly off his high-energy/high-motor approach, and while he'll struggle with some of the quicker wing matchups, he should prove to be a solid defender from the outset. Long term, Anderson has the potential to be a solid 3-and-D wing, someone who doesn't need the ball in his hands to make an impact on the game on either end of the floor.
5. Mario Hezonja
Team: Orlando Magic
Readiness: 54.0
Ceiling: 82.5
Two notes: Hezonja could easily have a higher readiness and might never reach his ceiling. While he's got a tantalizing skill-to-size ratio, both basketball IQ and decision-making will be serious hurdles in his development. It's great to have size and athleticism while also being able to dribble, pass and shoot, but knowing when to dribble, when to pass and when to shoot factor in almost as heavily. Hezonja showed flashes of brilliance in Orlando Summer League, but he also showed lapses in judgement, not to mention moments of abrasive behavior toward teammates. Nothing egregious, but it was the kind of behavior that wears on people, especially if you're prone to a boneheaded play or two yourself. He's got serious upside if he can get past those issues -- perhaps I'm even short-changing his ceiling -- but that's a big "if".
6. Stanley Johnson
Team: Detroit Pistons
Readiness: 54.0
Ceiling: 72.0
Johnson famously proclaimed that he was "the best player in the draft" after the Pistons selected him at No. 9. While I admire the confidence, I'm not planning on crowning him anytime soon. Johnson does come in with a certain level of polish and outclassed much of the competition in Orlando Summer League, getting to the free-throw line and putting up high-efficiency shots. Playing for Stan Van Gundy will quickly indoctrinate him into a world of higher expectations, and many of the things he got away with in college (such as overpowering his competition) won't work as easily in the NBA. I have long-term doubts about his ability to grow in athleticism and ability, but I'd be surprised if Johnson did not end up as a high-level starter on a good team during his career.
Not quite ready
Justise Winslow
Team: Miami Heat
Readiness: 51.0
Ceiling: 78.5
As I said on draft day, I think Winslow landed in the perfect situation in Miami, where he'll be able to grow more organically rather than having to carry the expectations of being a franchise savior. As a wing player, he can step right in and defend multiple positions, but like Anderson, I have questions about his ability to knock down shots from deep. That, combined with his inability to consistently create off the dribble, limits his scoring opportunities to transition buckets and garbage baskets. The Heat's wing rotation is a lot more stacked this season than it was last season, with Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, Goran Dragic, James Ennis and Gerald Green all expected to see a majority of the time, but it's not beyond reason to expect Winslow to compete. Two years from now, Winslow might be a valuable starter for Miami.
Emmanuel Mudiay
Team: Denver Nuggets
Readiness: 51.0
Ceiling: 85.0
Mudiay, by far, was the star of Las Vegas Summer League, electrifying the crowd with his pop and athleticism and impressing critics with his poise and maturity. That said, his 2-of-14 shooting from 3-point range did nothing to stem his biggest flaw. NBA defenses will instinctively go under on every screen against him, daring him to shoot and luring him into less efficient long midrange jumpers. He'll have a tough time beating guys to the right spot when they operate with that much of a cushion. Ultimately, I think he'll figure it out, but be prepared for an up-and-down rookie season.
Kristaps Porzingis
Team: New York Knicks
Readiness: 50.0
Ceiling: 80.5
Unlike some of his rookie classmates, Porzingis' lack of readiness won't be from the skill standpoint. Rather, he needs to catch up to NBA peers physically. In Vegas, he showed great recognition and enthusiasm in setting screens and rolling, and that's a trait that will endear him to his teammates when the real games start. The question is whether he has the core strength to be able to catch in traffic and finish without being rerouted and derailed by physical defenders. While he's a good shooter, I don't think he's quite good enough to be an exclusive pick-and-pop player, so hard rolls to the basket will be essential for his development. He showed good fight defensively but still struggled to uproot determined post-up players, something that will make him a target of opponents' offensive sets. I'm a sucker for skill guys, though, so I think Porzingis will work out in due time. His length and athleticism, coupled with his shooting touch, will shine brighter when he's added core strength and some muscle.
D'Angelo Russell
Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Readiness: 49.5
Ceiling: 82.0
Of all the high-profile picks in Vegas, Russell probably was the least impressive. He looked tentative for much of summer league play, and when he was aggressive, he wasn't particularly efficient. The questions about his lack of quickness seemed to grow louder with every performance, and he racked up 24 turnovers in his first three games.
The bad news: it gets no easier in the big leagues, and he'll be forced to make decisions in a fraction of the time he was allotted in Vegas, let alone at Ohio State. The good news: he's a smart enough kid who should figure it out eventually. Skill players who are quickness-deficient have a way of making the game slow down into pockets that allow them to take advantage of their mental sharpness, and I think Russell will benefit greatly from a rough-and-tumble rookie season.