The concept of "clutch" is a tricky one in the sports analysis realm. There are a number of problems in interpreting clutch data. Sample sizes are small, the projectability of clutch-inspired metrics is questionable and the very definition of what constitutes a clutch situation is nebulous. Yet we know that clutch situations exist because we see them every night, and the ability to function efficiently in tight situations is a hallmark of basketball's best teams.
Discussions about clutch in the NBA are different than similar debates among our baseball brethren due to fundamental differences between the sports. In baseball, batters take turns and exercise no control over the base/out situations in which they appear. The Detroit Tigers would love it if they could send Miguel Cabrera up in every tight situation, but that's not the way it works. In basketball, teams can and do refocus their schemes around their best players down the stretch of close games.
That makes things more interesting from a strategic standpoint, because it's easy to look at teams that are underachieving or overachieving against their point differentials and wonder if the disparities are due to clutch play. And if so, are the issues related to who's on the floor, and who gets the ball? All of these elements are easy to measure, and the data easy to acquire.
At the same time, there is still the question of definition. The most standard definition of clutch situations in the NBA is "any possession during the last five minutes of a game in which the teams are within five points of each other." If that definition seems arbitrary, it's because I suspect it is.
However, the narrower the definition of clutch we use, the smaller the sample sizes. We're already talking about a fairly tiny subset of NBA data as it is. But it's important info -- through Tuesday, 624 games have been played this season, and 327 of them have involved clutch possessions (52 percent).
One important thing to remember: The best clutch strategy is to avoid clutch situations. Teams are more defined by their blowouts than their close games. For instance, the Golden State Warriors have played just 32 clutch minutes all season and have had just 11 games that involved at least some clutch possessions. They've won nine of those, so that's yet another area in which the Warriors have excelled. But it's more impressive that Golden State has gone 24-4 in games with no real tight situations. Teams are ranked by their point differential per 100 clutch possessions. All clutch data was taken from NBA.com/Stats.
Best clutch teams
1. Golden State Warriors: (plus-63.2)
Because the samples are so small, clutch data can yield some unruly numbers. Nevertheless, the Warriors' performance in close games has been incredible. They have the best offensive rating and defensive rating of any team in clutch spots, but even that doesn't do justice to Golden State's dominance.
The Warriors have outscored opponents by 63.2 points per 100 possessions in clutch situations. They are 27.1 points better than any other team by this measure. Coach Steve Kerr has gone with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala in nearly all of his clutch spots, while rotating the other position among Harrison Barnes, Marreese Speights and Andrew Bogut, depending on the situation and matchup. As you'd expect, when things get tight, it becomes Curry's show: His usage rate is 44.5 percent in the clutch, and he's averaging 51.6 points per 40 clutch minutes. That latter figure leads the league.
2. Dallas Mavericks: (plus-36.1)
Dallas is second in clutch offense, and sixth in clutch defense, so the Mavericks are getting it done on both ends of the floor down the stretch. Monta Ellis is the closer in Dallas, with a 39.3 percent clutch usage rate. Dirk Nowitzki is at 27.3 percent. Those two, along with Chandler Parsons and Tyson Chandler, have been the constants in coach Rick Carlisle's late-game rotation, which now includes Rajon Rondo. Ellis (second) and Nowitzki (fourth) rank among the league's top five in clutch-time WARP.
3. Atlanta Hawks: (plus-29.9)
The Hawks are shooting up the league leaderboards in just about everything; they just passed Portland for third in the league in this category during the past week. Atlanta's offense ranks second in the clutch, with a second-place standing in effective field goal percentage and the top clutch assist rate in the league. The latter rank is a testament to the Hawks' style of play.
Assist rate varies from team to team in the clutch much more than it does overall. The Hawks have assisted on 70.4 percent of their clutch baskets. The Knicks, who rank last, have assisted on just 37 percent of clutch field goals. Kyle Korver ranks 13th to lead Atlanta in clutch WARP and has a 98.5 true shooting percentage. That is not a typo. He's hit 66.7 percent on both 2s and 3s, and 94.7 percent from the line in the clutch.
Worst clutch teams
28. Charlotte Hornets: (minus-17.8)
Charlotte has been bad on both ends, but it's been particularly poor on offense, ranking 27th in the clutch. Only three teams have played more clutch minutes, so this is a huge problem. There are 381 players in the clutch WARP rankings. Charlotte's Lance Stephenson ranks 374th, while Gary Neal is at 381st. Kemba Walker has a 36.7 percent usage rate to go with a 41.4 true shooting percentage when it's close. Not sure there's an easy fix here. Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist have been fairly efficient, but they aren't the primary creators. Al Jefferson's usage rate falls to 17.8 percent in the clutch, so he probably needs more touches.
29. Detroit Pistons: (minus-18.3)
The Detroit clutch offense is the league's worst, though a lot of the Pistons' season-long metrics are misleading because of their remarkable recent turnaround. Coach Stan Van Gundy has mixed and matched a lot with his closing lineups, though Brandon Jennings and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have usually been in the mix. Jennings has taken a lot of big late-game shots, but his clutch usage rate of 28.3 percent isn't exorbitant. Andre Drummond has played well in clutch spots, ranking second on the Pistons in WARP. But he's played less than half of Detroit's clutch minutes because of his horrific free throw shooting.
30. New York Knicks: (minus-29.3)
This is a disaster. The Knicks are not just last in clutch efficiency -- they are WAY last, sitting 11 points behind No. 29 Detroit. The Knicks rank last in clutch defense, and the offense is just 24th despite the presence of Carmelo Anthony, one of the game's better closers. As mentioned, the Knicks don't share the ball down the stretch, so if Melo's isolations don't work, the Knicks are sunk. New York has the worst foul-drawing rate in the clutch, suggesting it is taking too many jumpers.
Anthony has played 66 of New York's 86 clutch minutes, posting a usage rate of 43.3 percent and a true shooting percentage of 51.8. The silver lining: The way the Knicks are going right now, you wouldn't expect there to be too many clutch situations to fret about the rest of the way anyhow. Perhaps it's for the best.
Below are the full standings in terms of teams' clutch performances.