Live by the 3-pointer, die by the 3-pointer.
We hear it all the time. When a 3-point-happy team loses a game, it almost always comes with that warning.
It's an odd response when you think about it. When was the last time we heard "live by the rebound, die by the rebound" when a glass-cleaning squad got ousted? Or "live by the assist, die by the assist" when a pass-heavy team got beat?
Apparently, 3-point shooting carries a certain stigma that other playing styles do not, even though 3-point shooting teams have been wildly successful. Last season, the San Antonio Spurs were the best 3-point shooting team in the league and took 118 3-pointers in the first five games of the Finals, tied for the most all time. Before them, the 2013 champion Miami Heat won 66 games while firing up 3s at a top-five rate. The 2011 Dallas Mavericks? As jump-shooting as it gets. All took home the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
You don't have to look at just the recent champions. More and more, teams are winning by the 3-point shot. Just look at the standings. Golden State is 33-6 with probably the best shooting backcourt of all time. Every player in Atlanta's rotation shoots 3-pointers, and the Hawks are 27-2 since Thanksgiving. And then there's Portland, with the third-best record in the NBA and also the third-highest 3-point volume in the league.
It's time to retire the "live by the 3, die by the 3" cliché. The NBA is becoming more 3-point heavy than ever and the successful teams are leveraging it to their advantage. But which team uses the 3-pointer the most? And which teams use it most effectively?
At the season's halfway point, let's take a look at Insider's new 3-Point Index.
Houston shattering the charts
Following in the footsteps of the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, their D-League affiliate, the Houston Rockets are on pace to crush the 3-point volume record. After averaging a league-high 26.6 3-point attempts last season, the Rockets are firing up 33.5 3-point attempts this season, putting them on target to eclipse the 3-point attempt record by almost 400 shots.
The interesting thing? It hasn't led to spectacular results. This isn't a case of general manager Daryl Morey outsmarting the rest of the league by exploiting a 3-point loophole, at least not yet. Despite treating every game like a 3-point shootout, the Rockets rank 14th in the NBA in offensive rating, sporting a barely above-average 103.4 points per 100 possessions. Memphis and Washington, two teams that largely ignore the 3-point shot, have churned out better offenses this season.
As Morey would acknowledge, shooting 3s isn't enough. You have to make them, too. Trevor Ariza (33 percent), Donatas Motiejunas (31 percent), Kostas Papanikolaou (31 percent) and Josh Smith (20 percent) haven't been lighting it up from downtown, but they still take a combined 13 3-pointers per game. All together, the Rockets have shot 35.3 percent from deep, which is right about average.
Yet the Rockets are still carving out an edge by shooting so many 3s. Why? For the simple fact that three is more than two. Even with a lukewarm conversion rate, the payoff of an average Rockets 3-point shot is 1.059 points, whereas the average 2-point shot is 0.998. That extra value adds up over time. Even so, it's not enough to give them elite offense, though it has improved since Dwight Howard has gotten back to the court after his right knee injury.
So even though the Rockets are using the 3-point weapon more than any team in NBA history, they aren't getting the most out of the 3-ball. Which team does? For that, Kevin Pelton and I created a simple but handy metric to calculate the value that teams are deriving from the 3-point shot. We call it the 3-Point Index (3PI).
3PI gives credit for points scored on 3-pointers above and beyond what they would have gotten (per game) making 2-pointers at the league average rate instead. The important thing is that 3PI measures both volume and accuracy by looking at the rate of 3-point attempts and 3-point field goal percentage. As we've seen with the Rockets, it's not enough to just take a ton of 3s; you have to make them, too. On the flip side, it's not incredibly useful to have a great 3-point percentage, but ignore the shot altogether (Wizards, I'm looking at you).
So which teams top the 3PI list?
You can start with Houston's opponent Wednesday, the Golden State Warriors. They earn an extra 2.5 points every game based on their elite 3-point shooting, the best team in 3PI.
The 3PI Rankings
Value teams are deriving from the 3-pointer on a points-per-game basis.
Some notes on the results
• The top four teams in 3PI also rank in the top 10 in offensive rating. That's no coincidence. Great offenses tend to focus on 3s. In fact, there's a much stronger correlation between 3PI and offensive rating than there is in say, assist percentage. Actually, 3PI has a stronger correlation to offensive rating than using 3FG% or 3PA/G alone. In other words, this teaches us something beyond the normal inputs.
• The Rockets derive an extra 1.4 points per game on their 3-point arsenal, which is eighth-highest in the league. If they continue to shoot 37.1 percent like they have in January, they won't sit outside the top five for long.
• The Wizards have the best 3-point percentage in the NBA, but they could stand to turn some of their beloved long 2s into 3s. It's a crime that Bradley Beal (3.9) averages as many 3-point attempts as P.J. Hairston and just half of Wesley Matthews' rate (7.9)
• How about OKC? It ranks 24th in 3PI, which seems low for a team that features one of the best shooters on the planet in Kevin Durant. Interestingly enough, with Russell Westbrook and Durant on the floor, the Thunder have shot just 33.2 percent his season as a team. Their presence hasn't changed anything.
• Surprise, surprise: When you shoot 29.6 percent from 3, it'll cost you. At this point, Philadelphia is probably thrilled with both the process and the results.
• If you're wondering how Phoenix has still held onto OKC's spot in the playoffs, look at its effectiveness beyond the arc. Even without Channing Frye, they're right up there with the best.
• Where does Golden State rank all time in 3PI? Stay tuned . . .
News and notes from around the NBA
• Kyle Korver stat of the week: By shooting 53.6 percent from deep this season, he single-handedly has raised the Eastern Conference 3-point percentage from 34.3 percent to 34.7 percent.
• The Pistons' starting lineup with Josh Smith (where he started the season before being traded to the Rockets in late December) : 98.2 ORtg; 105.3 DRtg; -7.1 Net. With Kyle Singler instead: 104.1 ORtg; 96.6 DRtg; +7.1 Net.
• The Rockets' starting lineup with Smith: 96.2 ORtg; 110.4 DRtg; -14.2 Net. With Motiejunas instead: 109.7 ORtg; 95.4 DRtg; +14.3 Net.
• Scary moment for the Heat on Tuesday night when Hassan Whiteside rolled his right ankle. The guy has been a revelation this season. He torched Steven Adams for three dunks early before leaving in the second quarter. Whiteside already leads the Heat in dunks (23) despite ranking 13th in minutes. The buzz around Whiteside was the only thing keeping this team together the past few weeks.
• Speaking of Miami, watch out for Charlotte making a late entry to the East playoff race. Since Lance Stephenson dropped out of the lineup, the Hornets are 11-6 with a plus-5.6 point differential. And that's without Al Jefferson, too. Mike Budenholzer, Steve Kerr and Stan Van Gundy may be the front-runners for coach of the year honors, but Steve Clifford isn't staying quiet.
• Trivia question of the week: Which team has forced the most shot-clock buzzer-beaters (less than 1 second on the shot clock)? Last week's trivia question: Which player has the most long rebounds in the NBA (collected 10-plus feet)? Answer: Stephen Curry (67). What can't he do?