Last week, when the Los Angeles Clippers and Doc Rivers traded for his son, Austin Rivers, it wasn't just a fascinating case of nepotism. The three-team deal was also one of the most interesting examples of the "Second Draft" in recent history.
The Second Draft is a concept popularized by former ESPN Insider John Hollinger describing when young players fall out of favor with their original team and become available for a much lower price. That fits Rivers, less than three years removed from being drafted 10th overall by New Orleans. It also describes Reggie Bullock, the second-year wing the Clippers sent to the Phoenix Suns as part of the trade.
Dion Waiters, the fourth overall pick in 2012 recently acquired by the Oklahoma City Thunder for a lottery-protected first-round choice, is another example of a recent Second Draftee. In the release announcing the deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Thunder GM Sam Presti referenced Waiters' potential coming out of college, calling him "a player that we've tracked and liked since his time at Syracuse."
With more Second Draft opportunities likely between now and next month's trade deadline, it's a good time to re-evaluate how well the strategy has worked and four current players who could be good Second Draft candidates.
Second Drafts past
Waiters and Rivers weren't the first 2012 lottery picks jettisoned by their original teams.
The Kings were criticized for giving up on Robinson so quickly, while Rockets GM Daryl Morey was praised for capitalizing on his potential. "As poorly as Robinson has played as a rookie, his upside is much higher [than Patterson]," I wrote in grading the deal a D for Sacramento.
As it turned out, the Kings were selling high. Robinson has had positive moments with the Blazers, including keying a comeback Monday night with LaMarcus Aldridge out of the lineup. Still, he's played just 287 minutes this season while making $3.7 million, and Portland declined the $4.7 million team option on the final year of Robinson's rookie contract. He'll be an unrestricted free agent this summer.
That's an instructive point. While rookie contracts are generally the best bargains for teams, high lottery picks end up making midlevel salaries by the end of their first four years. So it's not enough for players like Robinson or Derrick Williams, the No. 2 overall pick in 2011, to merely improve gradually with their second team. Williams, acquired by Sacramento early last season, is making $6.3 million in the final year of his rookie deal while averaging 17.4 minutes per game off the bench -- hardly good value.
Escalating salaries could soon become an issue for Anthony Bennett, the top pick in 2013. Bennett wasn't really a Second Draftee, since the Cavaliers dealt him after a disappointing rookie season only because they had the opportunity to land perennial All-Star Kevin Love. Still, he presents the same problem for the Timberwolves. Bennett will make $5.8 million next season, and Minnesota will have to decide by October whether to guarantee him $7.3 million in 2016-17, a major investment in a player with an 11.9 PER.
By comparison, recent Second Draft success stories have come cheaper, either because their rookie contracts have expired or because they were drafted later and have smaller guaranteed salaries. The Lakers have been aggressive about signing former lottery picks for the veteran's minimum the past two seasons, cheaply adding depth with players like Ed Davis, Xavier Henry, Wesley Johnson and Kendall Marshall. Davis could be a valuable trade chip before the deadline.
Via the trade route, the Suns added 2011 No. 14 pick Marcus Morris for a second-round pick and have seen him grow into a valuable reserve playing alongside his brother Markieff. The Suns signed both Marcus and Markieff to rookie extensions before this season. While 2012 No. 20 pick Evan Fournier didn't necessarily come cheap for the Orlando Magic, who sent Arron Afflalo to Denver in return, he's enjoyed a breakthrough season in his third campaign. And the Philadelphia 76ers got 2012 No. 25 pick Tony Wroten from Memphis essentially for free (the Sixers sent the Grizzlies a top-50-protected second-round pick, which did not convey) and have seen him produce Derrick Rose-like numbers this season.
Second Drafts future
So who's next? Let's take a look at some possible Second Draft candidates leading up to the trade deadline -- all of them in their third season -- and evaluate their potential to pan out based on recent history.
Miles Plumlee | C | Phoenix Suns | 2012 No. 26 pick
ESPN's Marc Stein reported over the weekend that the Suns are shopping Plumlee, whose role has shrunk with second-year center Alex Len entrenched as the starter and newly acquired Brandan Wright more effective at center than power forward. According to Stein, Phoenix's asking price is a first-round pick, which wouldn't exactly qualify as buying low. However, that demand might come down by the trade deadline.
Plumlee already has a season-plus of starting experience, so while his age (26) limits his upside, he's a useful rotation center at a reasonable price ($2.1 million in 2015-16, the final season of his rookie contract). And if his rebound rate returns to where it was in 2013-14, he might be something more.
John Jenkins | SG | Atlanta Hawks | 2012 No. 23 pick
Jenkins has played just 1,087 minutes in his first three NBA seasons. Back surgery ended his 2013-14 campaign, and a healthy Jenkins has been unable to crack the Atlanta rotation this season. How much that reflects the Hawks' wing depth rather than Jenkins' weaknesses is the question possible suitors will have to answer. Before the injury, Jenkins made 38.4 percent of his 3-pointers during a promising rookie effort.
Since Atlanta declined the fourth-year option on his contract, Jenkins will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, and teams may simply decide to wait and sign him outright.
Maurice Harkless | SF | Orlando Magic | 2012 No. 15 pick
My favorite investment in this group, Harkless started 41 games last season at age 20. Fournier's arrival and Orlando's desperate need for more shooting on the wing have pushed him almost entirely out of the rotation so far in 2014-15: Harkless has played 318 minutes total, which could make him available by the deadline.
The fit has to be right for Harkless, who isn't a floor spacer despite making 38.3 percent of his 3s in 2013-14. He's shot 4-of-26 (15.4 percent) from beyond the arc in limited action this season. Despite that, Harkless' length and athleticism make him a potential plus defender. So while his salary isn't cheap ($2.9 million in 2015-16), Harkless is a worthy gamble.
Jeremy Lamb | SG | Oklahoma City Thunder | 2012 No. 12 pick
Technically, Oklahoma City is Lamb's second team, since he was originally drafted by Houston. Effectively, he's a classic Second Draft candidate -- a highly talented prospect who had fallen out of Oklahoma City's rotation even before Waiters' arrival created more competition on the wing.
Lamb's tendency to float in and out of games has frustrated the Thunder. In another setting, where he wasn't constantly being compared to Harden, that might not be as problematic. Lamb showed the ability to create his own offense with Kevin Durant off the floor last season, averaging 19.2 points per 36 minutes according to NBA.com/Stats. He'll still have to develop the ability to score efficiently when creating for himself, but at 22, Lamb has time on his side.
Follow Kevin Pelton on Twitter @kpelton.