LAS VEGAS -- UFC welterweight contender Leon Edwards returns to the Octagon for the first time since mid-2019 to face surging veteran Belal Muhammad in a Fight Night main event on Saturday.
Edwards (18-3) has won eight straight, but he hasn't fought since a five-round decision over Rafael dos Anjos on July 20, 2019.
Meanwhile, Muhammad (18-3) is coming off a decision win over Dhiego Lima -- his fourth straight victory -- just one month ago at UFC 258 in Las Vegas. Muhammad agreed to take the fight on short notice after Edwards' initial opponent, Khamzat Chimaev, was forced to withdraw because of lingering physical effects caused by the COVID-19 virus.
For Edwards, it's a must-win if he wants to fight for the title in the very near future. And for Muhammad, it's a chance to climb the rankings, as he is No. 13 while Edwards is No. 3 in the division. Edwards is a -260 favorite, according to Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Who will get the nod? ESPN asked several experts for their breakdowns and picks on the main event.
Editor's note: Some content has been edited for clarity and brevity.
James Krause, UFC welterweight and Glory MMA coach
To me, they're really similar. Neither of them is known to be a big power puncher. They're what I'd call a little higher-than-average-volume snipers. They're both accurate. They like to pressure people but also keep range. They have similar styles. Both will wrestle if need be. I do think the grappling favors Leon. If you watch his fight against Gunnar Nelson, the way he rag-dolled Gunnar and how good he was on top was nothing short of incredible.
One thing that Leon is really good at is elbows on the break. He butchers people up with that, real sneaky with it. I think Belal is going to make this extremely difficult, but those little details of Leon's game will be the challenge for him. I also think Edwards is a bit more athletic and his hand speed is quicker. Belal just had a fight with Lima and he controlled that fight, but anytime you're in a fight, there are bumps and bruises, and his leg was compromised in that fight. He was having to switch stances in that fight and pull some veteran moves, which he's great at. I can't pick the fight. I have a lot of respect for Belal, and he's going to make this close, but Leon is good.
Alan Jouban, UFC welterweight
Beat Muhammad via unanimous decision in July 2016.
I fought Belal, but it was very early in his career. It was his UFC debut. The thing that I picked up on right away in Belal, though, is that he is super tough. He's been TKO'd before in his career, but I cracked him a couple times, and he's just one of those guys that kept coming. He can take damage very well and even took me into the later rounds and won the last round.
Since then, Belal has gotten so much better and I'm always rooting for him. The guy is hilarious on social media and just a fun dude. I feel like he's kind of got the MMA world behind him right now because he's such a likable guy and he's on such a tear, but, man, this is a tough matchup for him. And I think he really knows that. I think he truly believes in himself, but I also think he knows this is a super-tough matchup for him.
Leon Edwards is just good everywhere. Belal is too, but Leon is probably better in certain areas and just a much taller, heavier guy. He's a big welterweight. He's sharp at range. He's well rounded, with a good gas tank. But knowing this is a five-rounder, maybe Belal can keep the pedal down and wear on Leon into the later rounds.
This fight presents a ton of hurdles for Belal -- that's what jumps off the page to me. But he's a guy who knows you have to take risks. He said it when he took this fight, and I think that spoke to how he's feeling. He knows he has a tough task in front of him, but if he wants to be the best in the world, he has to beat guys like this. Leon isn't a finisher, really; he's more of an opportunist finisher in my eyes, but he's super tough and that's why he has a hard time finding opponents sometimes. If I had to take a pick on this fight, I'd go with the safe pick in Edwards. He's just a little too good, too big.
Eddie Cha, Fight Ready striking coach
I watched a lot of film on Leon Edwards when one of my former fighters, Bryan Barberena, fought him in 2017 [Edwards won by unanimous decision]. I think the biggest challenge for Leon is just going to be dealing with that time off. You just never know how someone is going to show up after almost two years off. On paper, Leon seems like the big favorite. He has big wins over Donald Cerrone, Gunnar Nelson and Rafael dos Anjos. His only loss since 2014 was against champion Kamaru Usman.
I think in order for Belal to win, he's gonna have to take Edwards down. Leon is the better striker. He's a lot faster. His hand speed is a lot quicker. Belal might have a bit more pop in his punches, but Leon is going to be the faster man. I did like some of the stuff Belal did against Takashi Sato, like his left hook and combinations. But Leon is the cleaner striker.
The wrestling is going to be interesting. Leon can wrestle, too. It says something when the top 10 fighters in the division don't want to fight you, and that seems like what Leon has gone through. He's a tough matchup for people. People think of him as a kickboxer, but his wrestling is the real deal. And he's a big guy, like 6-foot-2. I was really impressed with his win over dos Anjos. Not many people can do that to the former 155-pound champion.
I like Leon in this fight -- I think it's going to be a question of speed. He's a better kickboxer. He knows how to fight orthodox fighters. The way Belal comes forward, I think Leon is going to be able to counter him a lot easier. I think it's going to be a good night for Leon.
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
What a fun fight for both of these guys. Edwards is that steady-as-you-go guy. He's efficient. I feel like he's just always there in your face, always putting on that constant pressure. The one thing that really stands out to me in Edwards' game is that he has a really good body-lock/clinch game. I watched his fight with Donald Cerrone again recently and I was really impressed with what he did in that fight. He's won eight in a row and it's for good reason -- he's a great fighter.
The big question for Edwards is his inactivity. Almost two years without fighting is a long time. How much it affects him is predicated on his training camp, training partners and his activity in the gym. Those are the things we as other coaches and journalists don't necessarily see. What has he done with this time off? That's a question only he can answer.
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Belal Muhammad gets better every fight you see him. He's a problem. You're looking at a guy constantly winning these hard-fought decisions. Can he keep that same pace for five-rounds?
I want to go with Muhammad because of his activity and his constant evolution. I feel like he's becoming more and more confident in his skill set. I think he finds a way to get it done. The one thing I'm most impressed with Belal is his fight IQ of late. He knows when he needs a takedown, when he should stick with his standup. Belal is able to strike from both stances, has great movement, cuts the legs down and comes back upstairs. All these traps he sets is good stuff. It's gonna come down to who can implement their game plan better.
ESPN's Marc Raimondi contributed to this report.