The word "tanking" is considered impolite in some circles, and so when general managers speak publicly about the cycle of teams trading away veterans and slashing payroll, they'll refer to it as "rebuilding" or "taking a step back." Commissioner Rob Manfred doesn't use the word "tanking" either, probably because that would have implications in any discourse with the MLB Players Association.
But privately, a lot of folks in team management refer to tanking as a matter of course, given how popular the strategy has become since the Astros and Cubs demonstrated how effective it could be under the current rules. Those teams lowered their budgets dramatically, finished near the bottom of the standings repeatedly, picked at or near the top of the draft repeatedly, and won championships -- the Cubs in 2016, the Astros in 2017. Not surprisingly, other teams adopted that system.
However, embracing the idea can turn out to be more difficult than actually carrying it out successfully, especially now that more teams are trying to do the same thing. The Phillies might be the best example of this right now, because whether you want to call what they did "rebuilding" or "tanking," the process hasn't gone as smoothly, or been as successful in the standings as it has for the Astros and Cubs.
Despite dramatically reducing their spending and finishing in fourth or fifth place in the National League East over five straight years, the Phillies are powered in 2019 by more expensive free-agent and trade acquisitions, such as Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto, and don't appear to have the sort of prospect pipeline that evolved for the Astros and Cubs.
To review: The Phillies' leadership struggled to move on from the championship core of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels, before diving headlong into a tank/rebuild cycle. One of the most powerful financial clubs, the Phillies slashed their payroll over four seasons -- and they got what they paid for, effectively, falling to the bottom of the standings and presumably drawing some solid profits.
2013: $164 million (4th)
2014: $175 million (3rd)
2015: $142 million (9th)
2016: $103 million (19th)
2017: $104 million (22nd)
2018: $104 million (23rd)
2019: $145 million (13th)
The Phillies' win totals ranged from 73 to 66 from 2013 to 2017, and Philadelphia picked near the top of the draft time and again. In 2014, Philadelphia picked Aaron Nola with the seventh overall selection, and Nola has become the team's ace. Later in the same draft, the Phillies selected Rhys Hoskins in the fifth round, and Hoskins has become an important part of the team's offense.
But subsequent drafts haven't paid off as well. Selecting 10th in 2015, the Phillies picked shortstop Cornelius Randolph, who has been stuck in Double-A the past two seasons. Outfielder Mickey Moniak, taken by the Phillies with the No. 1 overall pick in 2016, has a .763 OPS in Double-A. Additionally, J.P. Crawford -- the team's first-round pick from 2013 -- never really flourished in a way the Phillies had hoped, and he was included in a trade for Jean Segura over the winter.
The core of the Phillies now is Harper, who cost the team $330 million as a free agent; Realmuto, a 28-year-old catcher acquired for prospects in a winter deal with the Marlins; the 29-year-old Segura; and Andrew McCutchen, 32, who blew out his knee earlier this season after signing as a free agent. Despite all the noncompetitive years, the Phillies are not a young team, and they're slogging around .500.
I don't know farm systems in the way Keith Law does, and I asked for his assessment of where the Phillies are in player development. "I think their system is fine," he said, "but not where it should be if you consider the trades [GM Ruben] Amaro made before he was fired and how high they've drafted for several years now. Their international program under Sal Agostinelli has really saved them, as so much of their prospect capital came from July 2 signings, including Sixto Sanchez, who netted them Realmuto.
"Their track record in the draft is really poor -- after Nola, they appear to have whiffed on their next three first-round picks, all top-10 guys, until Alec Bohm last year (No. 3 overall), who looks like he's going to at least turn into a solid big leaguer. Nola is still their only first-round pick to generate even 3 career WAR since Cole Hamels. In the last 10 drafts (2009-2018), their second-best pick is either Ken Giles or Rhys Hoskins, both right around 5 career WAR. They've gotten almost zero value since the Nola/Hoskins pick.
"They've also had some development trouble -- hitters haven't been improving on their way up the system, and I think part of that may be their tendency to push players to low-A Lakewood before they're physically ready for it. Luis Garcia was a top-100 prospect for me coming into this season, but he's been bad for Lakewood, and I think it's because at 18 he isn't strong enough to face that kind of pitching yet. ... They did the same with Daniel Brito and well before that with Carlos Tocci. On the pitching side, I think they've drafted too conservatively -- they've had six starters in the majors this year, one homegrown (Nola), one free agent (Jake Arrieta) and four guys who came over via trades."
Heading into Thursday's games, the Phillies -- and two other teams -- are a half-game out of the second wild card among a pack of contenders. They might have to use more money or prospect assets to prop up a struggling bullpen before the trade deadline, and in the immediate future, they'll have to find a way to close the gap on the Atlanta Braves -- a team with a lower payroll, a far younger core and seemingly much more talent. The Phillies' process has turned out to be far from seamless.