An Indians fan lingered in front of a Ninth Street restaurant an hour after the completion of Tuesday night's All-Star Game in Cleveland, and he immediately raised perhaps the industry's most intriguing question leading up to the trade deadline.
"What are the Indians going to do?" he asked.
Throughout the discussion that followed, he nodded.
He understands that Trevor Bauer is going to be traded someday, maybe soon, and that Francisco Lindor almost certainly will finish his career wearing somebody else's uniform. He knows the Indians don't have the cash flow of the New York Yankees or the San Francisco Giants or just about all other teams. He gets all that.
And yet he shared a sentiment that is probably popular among other Clevelanders.
"If they trade Bauer and [closer Brad] Hand," he said, "the fan base will go nuts."
The presumption in rival front offices, however, is that the Indians' leadership -- long regarded as among the best in baseball -- will work to filter any unhelpful emotion out of the conversation and focus on identifying an objective, proportional response to where the team stands. That could be to sell or it could be to buy and sell or perhaps it could be to buy very modestly.
The Indians blew a lead against the Twins on Friday night in suffering a disappointing loss, sinking them to 6.5 games behind Minnesota. According to FanGraphs, the Indians' chances of winning the division are just under 10%, and their chances of earning a wild card are at about 36%. So, they're at worse than 50-50 odds at the moment to get into the postseason. After a couple of weeks of games against American League Central opponents, Cleveland will have to run a gauntlet of teams in August -- the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and Yankees.
There is serious interest in Bauer despite the right-hander's inconsistency this season, and rival teams are frothing after Hand, the left-handed closer whose contract will keep him under team contract at a solid rate through the 2021 season. The trade value for each player might never be higher than it is right now.
When a small-market team such as the Indians -- or the Pittsburgh Pirates or the Tampa Bay Rays, etc. -- has a top-shelf talent it knows it probably cannot retain long term, the best way of extracting long-term, lasting value for that player is to trade him. That's what the Oakland Athletics did in breaking up one of the greatest pitching trios of the past quarter-century, flipping Tim Hudson to the Atlanta Braves and swapping Mark Mulder to the St. Louis Cardinals. That's what the Indians did with CC Sabathia in the summer of 2008 as he neared free agency, in return for a package of prospects that included a young outfielder named Michael Brantley. The next summer, the Indians swapped Cliff Lee to the Philadelphia Phillies, receiving Carlos Carrasco in return, among others.
Bauer has declared that his intention is to play for one-year contracts in his career, and after a breakout season in 2018, he is playing for $13 million this year, with his salary likely to grow into the area of $18 million next season. Then he'll be a free agent.
One rival executive estimated that if the Indians wait until after this season to trade Bauer, the return will be reduced significantly -- because for an acquiring team, Bauer could impact only one pennant race, rather than two, and any deal over the winter likely will be mitigated by his forthcoming salary bump.
The Indians probably could get excellent return for Hand now, but Cleveland could hang on to him into the winter, into the 2020 season, and so long as he is healthy and performing effectively, he would retain his value.
If the Indians decide to trade Bauer or Hand, their best chance for placating Cleveland fans would be to acquire major league-ready players who are still relatively early in their respective careers (and making close to minimum salary), rather than very young prospects early in their development. Maybe a swap with the San Diego Padres for one of their many young outfielders. Maybe a Hand trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers for one of their best prospects. This way, the deals can't be interpreted as a complete surrender for the 2019 season.
The Indians played well in the month leading up to the All-Star break, but this version of them probably isn't good enough to climb over the Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Rays or Twins to reach the World Series. If that's the internal assessment of the Cleveland front office, then it probably should trade Bauer before July 31 and wait to see if some team overwhelms it with an offer that can't be refused for Hand.