A club evaluator, preparing for the trade deadline that is 17 days away, mentioned some of the possible targets his team might consider, and as he spoke, he touched on a renewed challenge that baseball executives and scouts face this summer.
"You're not even sure of what you're seeing with some [players] right now," he said. "You don't know what to make of it."
The fundamental nature of the game has shifted dramatically -- and quickly. Hitters who weren't necessarily thought of as consistent home run sources are slugging with big power. Pitchers who have a history of keeping the ball in the park are surrendering more homers than ever -- such as the outspoken Justin Verlander, who has never allowed more than 30 homers in any season before this year and already has been touched up for a league-high 26.
Major League Baseball will obliterate its record for home runs this season, perhaps by as much as 10%. The eruption of home runs is muddying player evaluations this summer; and it seems destined to affect the way players are compensated -- which could be bad for some of the guys who hit the ball out of the park and good for the pitchers who manage to be effective even in the face of the barrage.
For years, teams have struggled to properly evaluate Colorado Rockies players and determine how much of the production is the result of the unique playing conditions in Denver, a mile above sea level, and how players' talents might translate elsewhere. With the leaguewide tsunami of home runs this year, it's as if a similar puzzle now applies to all 30 teams, some evaluators believe.
The spawn of Moneyball ignores old-school statistics, but some evaluators acknowledge they will be even more reliant on underlying data -- like the rates of hard and soft contact, swing-and-miss percentages and ballpark factors.
"What we're seeing with the ball makes it more imperative to dig into that stuff," one executive said. "I'd like to think we're doing it, anyway, but yeah, you have more questions."
The evaluative shift is reminiscent of the quandary that general managers and owners faced during the steroid era, when offensive numbers soared as players got bigger and stronger. During the 2001 season, a dozen players mashed more than 40 homers, and 89 had 20 or more homers. Evaluators knew implicitly that performance-enhancing drugs fueled a lot of player performances, without having any way to know exactly who did what, and when. So, as they considered trade and contractual investments, they were left to speculate about how the steroid dynamic would affect future production -- something that some general managers spoke about openly at the time.
In 2019, the questions about authenticity will be more related to the current conditions -- baseballs that seem to travel farther than ever, as commissioner Rob Manfred has acknowledged, propelled by a generation of hitters mostly devoted to the idea of getting the ball in the air and doing extra-base damage. An executive explained recently that in evaluating players this summer, he must wade through the murk of the gaudy offensive numbers -- like a broker trying to assess the true value of a stock in the midst of a frenzied bull market.
Arizona Diamondbacks All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte is one of many players who has had a massive increase in power production. In his days as a Mariners prospect, there was no expectation that he would be a consistent source of home runs, and this assessment of Marte was typical of many at the time: "Makes contact but very little power at this point, and impatient to boot."
Marte hit eight homers in his first 968 plate appearances in the majors, and this year, he has 21 homers in 392 plate appearances, leaving evaluators to try to guess how much of that improvement is through the adjustments he has made and how much is a consequence of this year's playing conditions. The Diamondbacks and rival scouts will ask variations of the same question about Marte (and many other players): Moving forward, will he sustain this kind of production? Is this the kind of player he will be or is this an aberration?
"The only thing for me is I want to see what happens next year," one evaluator said. "Maybe this is a one-year thing with the baseballs."
Before then, however, the continuing increase in homers likely will affect the upcoming class of free agents, again. The supply of home run hitters is ample, diminishing the demand that already has taken a downturn in recent winters.
Chris Carter led the National League in homers in 2017 with 41, and after that season, the Milwaukee Brewers released him, rather than allow him to go through what would have been a very pricey arbitration process. The New York Yankees signed Carter for $3.5 million for the 2017 season, but they cut him midway through that year, and he has not appeared in the big leagues since. Chris Carter is 32 years old.
Carter is perhaps the most notable example of the new reality that the skill of hitting home runs has not paid off in free agency in recent years. Last year, C.J. Cron mashed 30 homers for the Tampa Bay Rays, was dumped, then signed a one-year, $4.8 million deal with the Minnesota Twins. This year's explosion of taters -- how former Boston Red Sox slugger George Scott referred to homers -- might depress player salaries even more. Over the 2014 season, 57 players hit 20 or more homers, and this year, 36 players already have reached that 20-homer benchmark, with many, many more to follow. Finding hitters who generate home runs will be a heck of a lot easier in the winter ahead than finding a frontline starting pitcher or somebody with a .380 on-base percentage.
But the trends might work in favor of Los Angeles Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, who reaches free agency this fall. Ryu has allowed the ninth-lowest rate of homers and a high rate of soft contact.
News from around the major leagues
Ryu will be on the mound for Sunday Night Baseball, facing the Red Sox and David Price. Because of his precision and ability to throw strikes with all of his pitches, Ryu has been exceptional in coaxing opposing hitters to hack outside of the zone. Opponents have a chase rate of 36.4% against Ryu, fourth best in the big leagues
• According to Statcast: Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers had 144 hard-hit balls -- those hit at 95 mph or faster -- before the All-Star break, and that was more than anybody else in the majors. ... Xander Bogaerts had an .878 slugging percentage when ahead in the count in the first half. ... The Dodgers' Joc Pederson has a .955 slugging percentage on pitches in the upper half of the strike zone.
• Yordan Alvarez hit nine homers in his first 21 games for the Houston Astros in the big leagues, including two against the Texas Rangers on Friday night, and he is developing a reputation as a quick study. During a recent game at Yankee Stadium, teammate Michael Brantley had counseled Alvarez about lefty J.A. Happ and the inevitability that Happ would throw an inside fastball to him.
Alvarez waited through some pitches away, and eventually Happ pounded him inside with a fastball, just out of the strike zone. Alvarez pounced, clubbing the ball into the upper deck and leaving teammates to wonder what was more remarkable -- Alvarez's adaptability or a swing so refined that he was able to drive a pitch thrown six inches off the inside corner without hooking it. Here's video of the home run, in which you can see Happ do an immediate double take right after contact, as if he could not believe Alvarez got to that pitch.
• Yuli Gurriel has been blistering hot of late, and the Astros believe it's because he has reduced the rotation in his torso at the outset of his swing. In the past, he would turn away from the pitcher slightly as he prepared to swing, and as a result, his timing would be off and he often struggled to catch up. But now that there's less movement at the outset of his swing, he is in a better position, and he's doing more damage.
• Executives say that the prices in the trade market continue to be enormous. Teams are asking for very high-end prospects even for rentals, impending free agents such as the New York Mets' Zack Wheeler.
• Some evaluators believe the Rays will be one of the most aggressive teams in adding players before the trade deadline.
• The Chicago Cubs have been open-minded to ways of shaking up their roster and their lineup, but one of the challenges for them in the current market is identifying rock-solid solutions on other teams. With Kyle Schwarber continuing to swing back and forth through inconsistency, and with Jason Heyward sometimes disappearing, the Cubs could theoretically work to land a corner outfield masher -- a left-handed hitter, preferably. For example: David Peralta of the Diamondbacks could be an option, and reportedly, Theo Epstein's front office has checked in with Arizona about the asking price.
But there would be no guarantee that Peralta actually would improve the Cubs' lineup. He has a long history of injuries. And when Schwarber cycles into one of his hot streaks, his impact might be greater than that of Peralta; over a 26-day span in May and June, Schwarber had a .942 OPS, with nine homers. Heyward is a markedly better defender; and last year, Schwarber had a higher on-base percentage than Peralta.
Baseball Tonight podcast
Friday: Kenny Lofton talks about the steroid era and its impact on his career and Hall of Fame candidacy, and he recalls his role in the incident in which Albert Belle got the nickname Mr. Freeze; Dave Schoenfield plays Buy, Sell or Hold for about a dozen teams; a conversation with Rangers manager Chris Woodward.
Thursday: Keith Law discusses the legacy of the late Jim Bouton as well as players who jumped out to him in the Futures Game; Sarah Langs and the Numbers Game, with some home run perspectives; Bleacher Report's Scott Miller on the question of the juiced ball and why the conversation inevitably will diminish the accomplishments of some players.
Wednesday: Bob Nightengale of USA Today on the All-Star events and the question of whether PED use is spiking upward; interviews with Francisco Lindor and CC Sabathia; Paul Hembekides and his great statistical analysis; a new Power 10, and why new producer Troy Farkas is obsessed over one player's autograph.
Tuesday: An extensive interview with former commissioner Bud Selig, who addresses the question about whether he has any regrets from his time in office and explains why he believes the owners won the 1994-95 strike; Boog Sciambi and Sarah Langs on the Home Run Derby.
Monday: Tim Kurkjian and Karl Ravech discuss the All-Star events and the first half of the season; Todd Radom's cap talk.