Let's make a few deals.
On Thursday, we laid out a good part of the upcoming trade landscape and hinted at some possible matches. Today, I'm going to play a kind of overlord of general managers and gently suggest a few trades that I'd really like to see happen over the next couple of weeks. That is, if it were all up to me. Which it's not.
All of these notions are aimed to fill needs for both teams involved in each transaction. Mostly, these are all larger concepts involving two clubs looking for a little more than the standard deadline deal that involves a walk-year veteran exchanged for some package of faceless prospects, in which the young players coming back are years away from being anything. All of these proposals take a more short-term perspective.
Alas, you don't see many in-season blockbusters like this anymore, as teams seem to prefer to sell off their assets one by one to maximize return. It doesn't have to be that way.
Simple enough? Let's get to it.
1. Dodgers acquire LHP Felipe Vazquez from the Pirates for C Will Smith and RHP Tony Gonsolin.
In terms of Statcast metrics, the most coveted relievers who might be available this month are San Francisco's Will Smith, San Diego's Kirby Yates and Pittsburgh's Vazquez. Smith is headed for free agency. Yates will head into his last arbitration season with a platform campaign that may rate as the best in baseball among relievers. Vazquez, meanwhile, has two more team-friendly seasons plus a team option left on his deal.
That drives up the price for Vazquez, but he might be worth it. Talk about the rare consistent reliever: Four of Vazquez's five big league seasons have been excellent, while the other (2016) was merely above average. He would team with Kenley Jansen to lock down the back of the Dodgers' bullpen for the rest of this season and at least a couple of more campaigns to come.
The Pirates, meanwhile, really need a long-term solution behind the plate and Smith would fit the bill, assuming Pittsburgh is unable to pry elite prospect Keibert Ruiz away from L.A., which likely would be the case. Gonsolin is a quality, big league-ready arm who could either slot into the Bucs' rotation or possibly transition to a high-leverage bullpen role down the line.
2. The Twins acquire LHP Madison Bumgarner and LHP Will Smith from the Giants for OF Alex Kirilloff, LHP Lewis Thorpe and two prospects outside of Minnesota's top 10.
One thing I've long known about myself is that if I were a general manager, I would cling to my top prospects way beyond the extent to which it's reasonable. Trading a top-20 prospect like Kirilloff for two pending free agents is a steep price, and a little painful. But let's remember who the Twins will be trying to navigate past this October. The Yankees and Astros are bona fide superteams. Minnesota could win 100 games and still rate third among the oddsmakers in the race for the American League flag.
Minnesota's rotation has been remarkably stable over the first half of the season. But when I think of a postseason series, I love the idea of the Twins starting off with Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. I like Kyle Gibson as their No. 4. But as solid as Martin Perez has been, and as encouraging as Michael Pineda's recent outings have been, I could see a hyper-focused MadBum as channeling 1991 Jack Morris during a Twins postseason run. No active pitcher has the kind of postseason pedigree that Bumgarner brings with him.
As for Smith, well, his xWOBA is 38.4% better than league average, so his pitch quality has been even better than his fine results. Yes, Minnesota already has an elite lefty reliever in Taylor Rogers, but the Twins surely wouldn't stop here when it comes to adding to the bullpen. In fact, if the Giants were willing to eat enough of Mark Melancon's contract, this deal could be expanded to include him and become a true midseason blockbuster. Besides, there is plenty of room for Smith and Rogers together, especially given the liberal way in which manager Rocco Baldelli has deployed his bullpen.
As for the Giants, if Farhan Zaidi could turn two walk-year players into a prospect like Kirilloff, that's a huge win. Minnesota has an excellent set of young outfielders at the big league level, so they could absorb the loss of a promising corner player just fine. The Twins have other prospects they'd surely dangle before Kirilloff, but the demand for rental pitchers at the Bumgarner/Smith level is likely to be off the charts.
3. The Cardinals acquire RHP Zack Greinke and RF David Peralta from the Diamondbacks for OF/1B Jose Martinez, RHP Alex Reyes and a prospect outside of the Cardinals' top 10.
Any deal involving Greinke would involve a hardy negotiation over how much cash the Diamondbacks are willing to eat. This trade structure assumes that they'd eat quite a bit, which is why St. Louis would include two players they value greatly both on and off the field. But let's face it -- they don't have a spot to deploy Martinez's bat every day, and Reyes may have reached the point where he's a change-of-scenery candidate.
Both Martinez and Reyes fit the mold of what it appears that Arizona is trying to do, which is to remake its payroll outlook while remaining competitive in the near term. Martinez would finally get a place to feature his elite bat every day, while Reyes would gain some fresh perspective in hopes of finding his immense upside.
If Arizona eases enough of the payroll burden, St. Louis would get the rotation topper it needs in Greinke for two more seasons beyond this one. In Peralta, the Cardinals get a bat to replace Martinez and a player who also helps the defense. The Cardinals could move Dexter Fowler back to center, where his metrics are good this season, and use Harrison Bader as a defensive super sub and pinch runner who gets occasional starts in place of Fowler against lefties.
Arizona needs at least some payroll relief and this would be a step toward that while the Diamondbacks could still credibly claim to be trying to win. The enigmatic Cardinals would get the shake-up they need so badly right now. They, like every team in the National League Central, have plenty to play for over the second half.
4. The Braves acquire RHP Trevor Bauer from the Indians for LHP Sean Newcomb, LHP Kolby Allard and a prospect outside of the Braves' top 10.
The Braves' most pressing need is for an ace to head up their postseason rotation, and if Bauer indeed becomes available, he'd fit the bill better than anyone. Lots of suitors would realize this. My assumption is that the next couple of weeks will clarify Bauer's availability. If the Indians continue their recent surge and look positioned to challenge Minnesota in the AL Central, it's tough to see them justifying a later-for-now trade.
But if Bauer is moved, then Cleveland would find a perfect trade partner in the prospect-rich Braves. Newcomb was one of the better lefties in baseball just last season, though he has struggled in 2019 and landed in the Atlanta bullpen. Allard is still only 21 and, along with Newcomb, would deepen the Indians' rotation options right away while providing a good bit of remaining upside. And, of course, they'd be a lot cheaper than Bauer will be the rest of this season and in his 2020 season, his last of arbitration eligibility.
Complicating matters in a potential Bauer trade is his stated desire (aren't all of Bauer's desires stated?) to go year by year when it comes to his future contracts. That wouldn't necessarily mean he'd bolt Atlanta after next season, but it would be interesting to know how that might factor into the calculations of general managers around baseball when valuing a Bauer return.
5. The Rays acquire LHP Matthew Boyd, RHP Joe Jimenez and RF Nicholas Castellanos from the Tigers for RHP Brent Honeywell, RHP Shane Baz and two prospects outside of the Rays' top 10.
This isn't really a Rays kind of trade, but why not? Castellanos is a free agent, but he's a big bat with an xWOBA 15.5% better than league average. He's ready to explode and doing so in a tight pennant race is the perfect venue for which Castellanos to arrive. Meanwhile, Boyd and Jimenez not only fill crucial roster gaps for the Rays, but they both have a number of team-controlled seasons ahead of them. Castellanos is the only rental in this return.
The Tigers: Well, they aren't winning anytime soon, and even though their rebuilding program has been going on for a while now, they remain in a position that adding prospect depth is key. Honeywell has tremendous upside and all kinds of injury risk, but he's the type of risk the Tigers need to take.
The Rays remain well positioned in the playoff chase even though they've been trending in the wrong direction for a few weeks now. They could, as usual, continue to try to plug leaks from their deep system, but why not swing big for once? It's OK for teams to do that once in a while, isn't it?
Extra innings
Some brief predictions for the second half:
1. The Braves will supplant the Dodgers as NL favorites entering October.
This is really a matter of trajectory, not just in terms of game results, but in individual career patterns. The Braves just have more young players getting better than the Dodgers do. As the National League's two best teams over the first half, there is likely a fair bit of regression in store for both clubs. Atlanta might not get the same level of performance from Dansby Swanson, for instance, while the Dodgers' Cody Bellinger -- who will be in the MVP chase to the end -- is nevertheless unlikely to match his .336 average in the second half.
Game results play into this too. The Braves got off to a fairly lackluster start (18-20), but their 35-17 mark since then is the best in baseball. However, it's only the best by a half-game over L.A. and the Dodgers have had the better run differential during that span. No matter how you want to slice it, the Dodgers have been the league's best team so far.
But there are two other factors to consider. First, the Dodgers' one weak spot has been their bullpen, particularly in middle relief. That's an area the front office will try to shore up over the next couple of weeks. The thing with bullpen upgrades is that they pay off situationally more than in terms of a huge regular-season impact. The Dodgers will target arms for October matchups.
Meanwhile, the Braves have charged to the top of their division despite a collective rotation performance that has been well below the level of what you'd expect from a prime contender. This is Atlanta's primary upgrade target for the deadline, but the Braves also have a long list of in-house options -- beginning with Kevin Gausman, Mike Foltynewicz and Newcomb -- who could provide a significant upgrade simply by doing what they did last season.
Both teams will pursue roster upgrades via the trade market, and both have good farm systems from which to deal. Few teams, however, have a deeper system than Atlanta's. This is all lining up nicely for the Braves, and even if they don't overtake the Dodgers for the best record in the NL by the end of the season, my feeling is that Atlanta will emerge as the popular pick to take this year's pennant in the Senior Circuit.
2. Mike Trout will post surreal numbers en route to another MVP award.
First, let's consider Trout's pace in a few key categories. He's on target for a .301/.453/.646 slash line, with that OPS number adding up to 1.099. It would be his best yet. He's also on pace to post career highs in homers (50), RBIs (119) and walks (135). He could get there in runs scored (126 pace, with a career best of 129 in 2012). His bWAR pace is 10.5, not far off his personal bests of 10.7 (2012) and 10.6 (2016).
If you dig a little deeper, you find something almost startling: Trout's average on balls in play so far is .303. That's FORTY-SEVEN points below his career mark. He was at .346 last season. His percentage of homers per fly ball is 24.8, which ranks 13th among qualifiers across the majors. That's near his career high, but when you consider that a relative peer like Christian Yelich is at 34.1%, Trout has room to grow in that area as well.
Even if Trout just keeps doing what he has been doing, he'll finish with another great season and will run away with the AL MVP award. But if he spikes in both BABIP and HR/FB%, while maintaining the same plate discipline metrics, this might be the year that Trout puts up a historically monstrous campaign.
3. Home runs rates will decline over the second half. At least a little.
You may have heard this at some point over the past few days, but it seems that there have been a lot of home runs hit in the major leagues this season. We've had 1.37 of them per team per game, a rate that will obliterate 2017's all-time record (1.26). The onslaught has been led by the surprising Minnesota Twins, who are on pace to hit what would be a record 302 dingers.
This is really two predictions: Baseball may well end up with another high-water mark in total homers and homers per game, but that 1.37 figure will drop. And no team, including the Twins, will crack the once-unheard-of barrier of 300 homers.
Thus far, homers per game are up 19.1% over last season. That would be the fifth-highest year-over-year increase during the divisional era (since 1969). Let's consider what happened during the 10 seasons during this span in which we've seen the greatest homer spikes:
I ordered this chart by homers per game rather than by the year-to-year spike to make a point: During the seasons in which we've matched an extreme year-over-year spike with a first-half homer total well over one per game, we've seen declines over the second half.
Overall, for all 10 seasons, the average half-over-half decline has been around .01 homers per game, but for the top three homer-happy first halves, the second-half decline has averaged .05. Either way, that 1.37 number should come down, if only a little. That will be especially true if -- as happened in 1987 -- MLB gets into a fresh batch of baseballs, ones that perform closer to recent norms.
As for the Twins, let's say that based on these calculations, homers fall by about 2 percent over the rest of the season. This wouldn't apply to every team equally, but for Minnesota, that drop would lower its rate of homers per game from 1.87 to 1.83. At that pace, the Twins would hit an additional 133 homers and they'd finish with 299. Dang, it might be close.
It would still be a record, but at least we still wouldn't have a 300-homer team. Frankly, I'm not sure we need to see one.