As baseball prepares to convene in Nashville for next week's winter meetings, the offseason action has been sporadic so far. That could change at any moment, but let's take advantage of the slow start for our first snapshot of how things stack up this hot stove season.
In addition to the 2024 projections, we'll take a quick look back at the season that concluded at the beginning of this month by noting one thing that defined the 2023 campaign for each team. Then we'll make some suggestions for how the team might repeat or avoid that fate, depending on how desirable it was.
1. Atlanta Braves
Sim wins: 100.8 (Final 2023 rating: 100.4)
Probabilities: 77% (division), 97% (playoffs), 27% (title)
2023 season defined by: Dingers, dingers and more dingers
How 2024 could be better: Only the 2019 Twins homered as often as the 2023 Braves, whose 307 long balls made them just the third team top 300 in a season. That was 58 more than the second-place Dodgers on the leaderboard. Nearly 52% of Atlanta's MLB-leading runs came via homers, a figure that ranks fifth among all teams during the division era (since 1969). Atlanta also led all teams in the postseason by scoring 62.5% of its runs on home runs. The problem was that the Braves did little else on offense, scoring just eight runs in their four-game loss to the Phillies in the NLDS. While home runs are never a bad thing, Atlanta's level of reliance on them for scoring has generally not translated to World Series trophies, at least among other teams over the years that get at least half their scoring from homers.
The Braves are likely to run back virtually all of their 2023 starting lineup, with only left field a little murky to foresee. And why not? Atlanta projects to lead the majors in everything: homers, runs, all three slash categories. The Braves even top the charts in baserunning metrics. Really, this may be a matter of instilling a new mindset among the Braves' hitters, because at least some regression in homers seems likely. You can't really ask Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson & Co. to try to hit fewer homers. But you can ask for more situational balance so that when Atlanta reaches October again next fall (and that looks like a strong likelihood) they have as many tools in their kit as possible.
2. Houston Astros
Sim wins: 97.0 (Final 2023 rating: 92.9)
Probabilities: 67% (division), 92% (playoffs), 14% (title)
2023 season defined by: Dusty's last run
How 2024 could be better: Well, Dusty Baker has retired and Houston has turned the managerial reins over to his bench coach, the highly respected Joe Espada. While Espada will surely put his own stamp on the Astros, there is little reason to think things are going to be run in a markedly different fashion. Last season's club extended Houston's epic streak of ALCS appearances to seven, but it was a relative struggle, with the Astros not securing a playoff slot until the final weekend of the regular season.
This early projection suggests things will be easier next season, but this is a little misleading. The Astros have much of their 2023 core coming back and some of the other leading contenders figure to be more active in the weeks ahead. Still, you could look at last season's slippage as the inevitable crumbling of an aging foundation, especially among the position players. And if the Astros see it that way, how might they get a little younger? The answer is probably a trade of someone like cornerstone third baseman Alex Bregman, but keeping this version of the team intact for one last run is certainly a viable option.
The Astros have already gotten considerably younger in the manager's office, but it remains to be seen if that's a good thing, because Espada has some awfully big shoes to fill.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sim wins: 92.6 (Final 2023 rating: 98.0)
Probabilities: 59% (division), 85% (playoffs), 10% (title)
2023 season defined by: Rotation injuries
How 2024 could be better: By October, the Dodgers -- the most consistently deep squad of this era -- were out of starting pitchers. Ailing Clayton Kershaw started their first NLDS game and didn't escape the first inning of Game 1 against Arizona. In Game 2, Bobby Miller didn't get out of the second inning. In the final game, Lance Lynn, who coughed up 44 homers during the regular season, gave up four more to the Diamondbacks and was gone by the end of the third inning. Tally it up and the Dodgers got 4⅔ innings and a 25.07 ERA from the postseason rotation. During the season, Kershaw led the club with 131⅔ innings, an outlandishly small team-leading total even by 2023 standards. As the Dodgers seek to augment the young core of their 2024 rotation with veteran stability this winter, perhaps they might bump durability up to the top spot among the traits they're seeking.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Sim wins: 90.9 (Final 2023 rating: 95.7)
Probabilities: 40% (division), 76% (playoffs), 8% (title)
2023 season defined by: (See Dodgers above)
How 2024 could be better: Most of what we just mentioned about the Dodgers holds true for the Rays, who had All-Star-level seasons from starters Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs all clipped early because of major injuries. That's not why Tampa Bay stumbled against Texas in the wild-card round -- the Rays eventually are going to have to figure out how to score in the playoffs -- but it does present a problem going forward. The Rays have enough returning rotation options to populate the depth chart, but this includes young hurlers they'll handle with kid gloves (Taj Bradley) and injury returnees (Shane Baz). And any or all of the aforementioned injured hurlers from 2023 might return over the course of the 2024 season, though that's far from certain. Innings will be an issue. Early whispers this winter have the Rays shopping righty Tyler Glasnow in the trade market. We'd suggest they not do that.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
Sim wins: 90.0 (Final 2023 rating: 89.3)
Probabilities: 17% (division), 77% (playoffs), 6% (title)
2023 season defined by: NLCS loss
How 2024 could be better: Philadelphia was all-in last season and appeared to have built an ideal postseason roster even as Philly finished well behind the slugging Braves in the NL East. That playoff fitness was apparent in the NLDS, when the Phillies easily dispatched the favored Braves. It looked less present when the Diamondbacks toppled the much-stronger Phils in the NLCS. The playoffs are what they are, so is there anything the Phillies can do to insulate themselves from another upset? You can't take the random out of the playoffs, so all Dave Dombrowski can really do is fill in at the margins of a strong roster. Add a lefty swinger who can up the team's walk rate. Sprinkle in even more depth for the pitching staff. Look for a quality backup to catcher J.T. Realmuto. Stuff like that.
6. Texas Rangers
Sim wins: 89.6 (Final 2023 rating: 93.9)
Probabilities: 24% (division), 71% (playoffs), 6% (title)
2023 season defined by: A parade
How 2024 could be better: Well, it can't. Each season, the one team that would do anything to achieve the status quo is the defending champion. The Rangers don't feel like a team looking to rest on its first title. Texas seems like a strong team looking to become a behemoth. The Rangers won the World Series despite puzzling over their bullpen jigsaw puzzle for the entire regular season, and Chris Young surely has his staff studying the lessons from that incessant challenge. There is no such thing as bullpen certainty, but there is one standout reliever in free agency who would help any team simplify its relief pitching formula, so the Rangers ought to go out and sign Josh Hader. Then go on from there, understanding that while Hader looks worth the investment, bullpen depth is rarely achieved via heavy-handed spending.
7. New York Yankees
Sim wins: 87.6 (Final 2023 rating: 80.7)
Probabilities: 23% (division), 62% (playoffs), 4% (title)
2023 season defined by: The flirtation with .500
How 2024 could be better: Do it all differently. The Yankees of recent vintage have been star-studded and super talented, and even last season's crash was likely in large part a product of multipronged misfortune. But there are some broken processes in here as well. Those need to be addressed. These are things that have shown up for multiple seasons now: too many injuries, too little athleticism, an overly right-handed lineup, a one-tone take-and-rake offense. We can't predict the injuries, but other than that, the early winter forecast sees a team with most of those same traits. Last season, the Yankees just missed seeing their 31-year streak of winning seasons end. If that taught them anything, hopefully it was that some things need to change.
8. San Diego Padres
Sim wins: 87.2 (Final 2023 rating: 90.0)
Probabilities: 26% (division), 66% (playoffs), 4% (title)
2023 season defined by: A lopsided roster
How 2024 could be better: No team can match the four-headed lineup monster of Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado. While no one in that quartet posted his best season in 2023, they all had representative campaigns, ones supported by great seasons from second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, closer Hader and Cy Young starter Blake Snell. Yet somehow the Padres performed 10 wins worse than their run profile and missed the playoffs. Things aren't going to get easier. Soto may get traded. Machado underwent surgery and may have to DH early in the season. Snell and Josh Hader are free agents. Yet there is still enough left in San Diego to win with if A.J. Preller can bolster the bottom half of his 40-man roster with more reliable depth. If Soto is indeed dealt away, converting his considerable value into multiple contributors would be a great way to jump-start the Padres' depth project.
9. Toronto Blue Jays
Sim wins: 86.9 (Final 2023 rating: 89.3)
Probabilities: 20% (division), 58% (playoffs), 4% (title)
2023 season defined by: A plateauing
How 2024 could be better: The Jays made the leap in 2021, going from a rebuild to an unlikely 2020 playoff appearance to real contention status. They have been there ever since. Over the past three seasons, Toronto has won 91, 92 and 89 games and has seen its run differential shrink in each season. The Blue Jays' sharp upward trajectory has flatlined. Worse, they've played six postseason games over the past four seasons and lost them all. The Jays project to be in the same neighborhood in 2024 as things stand, but the hot stove season is in its early days. With Whit Merrifield, Kevin Kiermaier, Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt hitting free agency, the Jays have a chance to amp up their firepower. A return to MVP-level production from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would boost this cause, but an aggressive stance this winter seems like a good idea if Toronto is to get over the hump and take advantage of this window of contention.
10. Minnesota Twins
Sim wins: 86.7 (Final 2023 rating: 91.2)
Probabilities: 62% (division), 68% (playoffs), 4% (title)
2023 season defined by: Rotation excellence
How 2024 could be better: The Minnesota bullpen was pretty good, too, but it was the rotation that provided the stability that allowed the Twins to finally take command of their weak division in 2023. The pitching staff projects to be strong in 2024 as well, though Minnesota has to account for the losses of 2023 Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray and 2020 Cy Young runner-up Kenta Maeda in free agency. The Twins' offense can be better as well, even if Minnesota doesn't make any major moves. Better health (Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa and, as always, Byron Buxton) could aid that improvement. So too would be continued progress from young guns like Lewis, Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien, though Kirilloff has to overcome a shoulder procedure he underwent after the season. With the Twins looking to trim some of its 2023 payroll, Derek Falvey and his staff will need to nail their offseason signings, likely all value plays, to keep the club in the mix. That starts with accounting for the departures of Gray and Maeda.
11. Baltimore Orioles
Sim wins: 85.2 (Final 2023 rating: 91.3)
Probabilities: 14% (division), 49% (playoffs), 3% (title)
2023 season defined by: Historic success
How 2024 could be better: The Orioles won 101 games despite fundamentals that tagged them with that 91.3 power rating, which fueled the 2023 simulations late in the season. When a team leaps from 52 wins to 101 over the course of two seasons, some statistical pullback is all but inevitable. Still, let's be clear: This golden era of Orioles baseball is just getting started. Baltimore will be a strong team in 2024, even if that doesn't necessarily translate to an uptick in the win column. There is just so much star-caliber youth -- Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Jackson Holliday, just for starters -- that the trend line will continue to point upward. For the Orioles to make a postseason leap, it probably starts with improving a rotation led by Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish. But a "proven closer" (the quotes are because this is almost an oxymoron) to fill in for injured Felix Bautista might not be the worst idea.
12. Seattle Mariners
Sim wins: 83.9 (Final 2023 rating: 90.2)
Probabilities: 8% (division), 42% (playoffs), 2% (title)
2023 season defined by: Swing and miss
How 2024 could be better: The Mariners took their bid to return to the playoffs for a second straight season into the last weekend of the 2023 campaign. That they came that close was because of an August surge in which Seattle won 17 of 21 beginning the day of the trade deadline, at which Jerry Dipoto was uncharacteristically measured in his approach. The weakness in Seattle has been the same year in, year out: too many strikeouts. While Dipoto has long lived with the tradeoffs that come with favoring power over contact, last season was too much. Seattle's 1,603 whiffs were a franchise record and the second-most in the majors. After the season, Dipoto stated a desire to improve that figure and took action. First, he non-tendered slugger Teoscar Hernandez, then traded third baseman Eugenio Suarez. Those two combined for 425 whiffs alone in 2023. Now comes the hard part: replacing them. There are some free agents who make good contact out there -- Michael Brantley, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Whit Merrifield among them. Korean bat-control master Jung Hoo Lee is expected to be posted in December, and he's an exciting option. At this point, at least Dipoto has identified his most acute malady.
13. St. Louis Cardinals
Sim wins: 83.6 (Final 2023 rating: 73.0)
Probabilities: 38% (division), 51% (playoffs), 2% (title)
2023 season defined by: Cellar dwelling
How 2024 could be better: It almost has to be, right? A Cardinals fan pointed out to ESPN after the season that his daughter, born in 2008, had never endured a losing team, much less a last-place club. (OK, it was my brother talking about my niece.) But that's the kind of prism through which this fan base looks at things. The Cards hadn't finished last since 1990, when the team fell into the NL East cellar under the guidance of three managers, all of whom are members of the Hall of Fame: Whitey Herzog, Red Schoendienst (as a player) and Joe Torre. Guess that bodes well for Oliver Marmol. Last season's rotation was a mess, though when a team falls that far there are always multiple reasons for it. Still, John Mozeliak doesn't seem to be anxious for a repeat. We're not even into December and he's already signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. It's a start.
14. New York Mets
Sim wins: 82.9 (Final 2023 rating: 80.1)
Probabilities: 4% (division), 44% (playoffs), 1% (title)
2023 season defined by: A bonfire of the vanities
How 2024 could be better: With the luxury of hindsight, it almost feels like the fate of the doom-struck Mets was sealed before the season, when Edwin Diaz blew out his knee celebrating a win in the WBC. And thus a team with a $330 million Opening Day payroll fell under .500 for good in early June and offloaded veterans by the gaggle at the trade deadline. Everything has since changed. David Stearns is the new head of baseball ops, and one thing we know is that he's not likely to indulge Steve Cohen's Charles Foster Kane-like approach to organization building. There's a new manager in Carlos Mendoza, Diaz will be back, and the rotation looks a lot less glitzy than in seasons past. Right now, this looks like a middling team, but it's just November, and that's a good platform from which to build up this roster the right way.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sim wins: 82.0 (Final 2023 rating: 79.9)
Probabilities: 11% (division), 39% (playoffs), 1% (title)
2023 season defined by: A pennant
How 2024 could be better: There were six NL teams that outscored their opponents in 2023. Arizona wasn't one of them, yet it was the Diamondbacks defending the honor of the senior circuit in the World Series. The storybook nature of Arizona's surprise run dominated the narratives from the fall, and for good reason. Still, this may have masked the larger story in Phoenix, that this franchise has emerged from a rebuild and is poised to make contention an annual occurrence for at least a few years. The Diamondbacks are packed with young players who should only get better, including Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll. And if Carroll gets better, he's an MVP front-runner. If there is one category that could really boost the bottom line of this team, it would be an uptick in the power category. Speed and defense are the calling cards of this position group, and that should continue to be the case. But if there is one team out there who could really benefit from a big-bopping DH, it's this one. Assuming Shohei Ohtani isn't getting his $600 million from the Diamondbacks, Mike Hazen will need to get creative in his pursuit of this aim.
16. Chicago Cubs
Sim wins: 81.9 (Final 2023 rating: 87.7)
Probabilities: 28% (division), 42% (playoffs), 1% (title)
2023 season defined by: Clank
How 2024 could be better: The Cubs didn't miss the playoffs because a fly ball thudded off the glove of Seiya Suzuki in Atlanta late in September, but that play sure seemed to symbolize Chicago's late-season fade. It may have also stirred the anxieties of longtime Wrigley denizens who have never quite forgotten old stories of curses and goats. One of the big beneficiaries of Suzuki's gaffe was Craig Counsell, whose Brewers clinched the NL Central that night because of the Cubs' loss. Counsell is now on the other side of it, having accepted an offer from the Cubs to become the highest-paid manager in the game. And thus the Cubs, even before they've gotten into reshaping their roster, have already emerged as one of the winners of the hot stove season. There will be no talk of curses from Counsell. Asking him about it would be like asking Mr. Spock about romance novels or soap operas.
17. Cleveland Guardians
Sim wins: 78.7 (Final 2023 rating: 78.4)
Probabilities: 19% (division), 27% (playoffs), 1% (title)
2023 season defined by: Popgun offense
How 2024 could be better: When the Guardians charged to the 2022 AL Central title with baseball's youngest roster, they did so with a high-average, contact-oriented offensive attack that was likely to get even better in 2023, if only because so many of their performers were so inexperienced. That didn't happen. Cleveland pretty much replicated its offensive percentages from 2022 but its scoring fell off, in no small part because of a downtick in situational hitting. This type of offense can be fun and refreshing to watch, but in 2023, there is simply a minimum threshold of power each team needs to win at a high level. The Guardians, who hit 27 fewer homers than any other team in baseball, did not reach that threshold. Signing impact power hitters is costly, so the Guardians aren't likely to go that route. Help will have to come from within, but that may not be a bad thing with hitters like Kyle Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, George Valera and Chase DeLauter climbing into the upper reaches of their system.
18. Milwaukee Brewers
Sim wins: 78.6 (Final 2023 rating: 88.8)
Probabilities: 16% (division), 27% (playoffs), 1% (title)
2023 season defined by: The departure
How 2024 could be better: So much went right for the Brewers in 2023. They finished over .500 for the sixth time in seven years, made the playoffs for the fifth time during that span, a run that's included three NL Central titles. The roster featured a surfeit of rookies -- outfielders Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell, and infielder Brice Turang. Milwaukee lost two wild-card games against Arizona to end its season in a disappointing fashion, but with even more quality youth on the way, the franchise was in a good place. And then Counsell not only walked, but he didn't walk far, heading down the freeway to Chicago to take over the hated Cubs.
It's not quite Leo Durocher working his way to the Giants so he could stick it to Branch Rickey and the Dodgers, but maybe it's close. Counsell is nowhere nearly as outspoken as Durocher, so it's hard to know what was really in his head. Back in Milwaukee, the Brewers have now seen one of the game's top executives (Stearns) and perhaps the top manager depart over the course of a couple of seasons. Milwaukee still trumpets its overall organizational continuity, and 2024 will be the biggest test of its business-as-usual approach. GM Matt Arnold proved himself last year, but now the onus is on Pat Murphy, Counsell's bench coach and replacement. Murphy famously coached Counsell at Notre Dame and now is tasked with beating him in the majors. If he does, 2024 will be even better for the Brewers than 2023 ... and perhaps a whole lot sweeter.
19. San Francisco Giants
Sim wins: 78.0 (Final 2023 rating: 77.4)
Probabilities: 5% (division), 22% (playoffs), 0% (title)
2023 season defined by: Yawns
How 2024 could be better: The Giants play in one of America's most beautiful cities and in one of its most breathtaking venues. They are one of baseball's flagship franchises with periods of high-level success stretching back to various versions of the Polo Grounds in the 19th century. If spending time with the Giants were a requirement for Hall of Fame enshrinement, the museum in Cooperstown would still be worth visiting. They have annual revenues that make them an economic behemoth. The fan support is outstanding, and their lead exec, Farhan Zaidi, is exceedingly bright. How could a team with all of this going for it be so incessantly nondescript? The most interesting guy on the team might have been manager Gabe Kapler, and he was fired. A team's goal shouldn't necessarily be to become more appealing but in the Giants' case, doing so would mean getting better. That's because what this team needs is at least two foundational offensive players. Those guys are fun to watch and help a team win. The Giants need offensive stars in the worst way.
20. Boston Red Sox
Sim wins: 77.9 (Final 2023 rating: 81.1)
Probabilities: 3% (division), 18% (playoffs), 1% (title)
2023 season defined by: Leadership change
How 2024 could be better: The Chaim Bloom era isn't likely going to be remembered fondly in Boston. Red Sox fans are a prickly bunch, and not only did the Red Sox sink to the AL East cellar in 2023, but Bloom's tenure was marked by the departures of beloved stars like Mookie Betts and Bogaerts. Such a result isn't really fair to Bloom, who was only doing what he was hired to do. But now that Craig Breslow is running the show, he may find that Bloom left the Red Sox in pretty good shape. Young players have been acquired and developed -- Jarren Duran, Triston Casas and Brayan Bello among them. The farm system is better than it was. The payroll outlook is pretty good, especially beyond next season. With this solid infrastructure, Breslow can focus on building up the rotation in a way that Bloom did not. Right now, the Red Sox project as a bottom-five run-prevention unit. The bullpen needs work, as does the team defense. But the quickest route to contention, especially for a team that should be above average on offense, is a strong and deep rotation, whatever it costs. Just ask any Texas Rangers fan.
21. Cincinnati Reds
Sim wins: 76.9 (Final 2023 rating: 76.7)
Probabilities: 12% (division), 21% (playoffs), 0% (title)
2023 season defined by: Youthful exuberance
How 2024 could be better: Man, were the 2023 Cincinnati Reds fun to watch or what? The title of "most exciting player in the game" is always in the eye of the beholder, but the current conversation has to include Elly De La Cruz. He was far from Cincinnati's only standout youngster as David Bell's roster featured 12 different first- and second-year players who earned at least 0.5 bWAR. Cincinnati had the fifth-youngest team batting age and sixth-youngest on the pitching side. Of course, the youth doesn't matter if you lose. The 2023 Reds won 20 more games than the season before, and Cincinnati finished over .500 one season after dropping 100 games. Now comes the hard part, which is augmenting that young foundation with the right mix of veteran role players. And, too, perhaps the time is right to pursue an impact, experienced (and, yes, expensive) talent to head the rotation or bat in the middle of the lineup. Improvement isn't always linear, but for Reds fans, there is every reason to be excited about what's to come, even if Joey Votto isn't likely to be a part of it.
22. Miami Marlins
Sim wins: 76.5 (Final 2023 rating: 76.8)
Probabilities: 1% (division), 17% (playoffs), 0% (title)
2023 season defined by: Marlins doing Marlins things
How 2024 could be better: Yeah, we wish we could focus our assessment of the 2023 Marlins around their rise to 84 wins and slot in the playoffs. Mentioning Luis Arraez's throwback .354-average/203-hit season or Skip Schumaker's Manager of the Year performance would be nice as well. Alas, the Marlins franchise has scaled to these heights before only to be undone by their own disarray. It's kind of what defines the franchise. We can't say that this is happening again, at least not yet, as new lead exec Peter Bendix deserves the benefit of the doubt. But if it ain't broke, don't fix it, and departed GM Kim Ng had the Marlins on the right track. Maybe Bendix will be just what the team needs to take the next step, and, if so, 2024 might be even better. Still, it would be nice if this team could manage to stay out of its own way.
23. Detroit Tigers
Sim wins: 76.2 (Final 2023 rating: 72.6)
Probabilities: 12% (division), 18% (playoffs), 0% (title)
2023 season defined by: Miggy's farewell
How 2024 could be better: It's hard to be happy about one of the game's most joyous and accomplished figures moving into retirement. Miguel Cabrera is going to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer and is firmly in the conversation about baseball's greatest right-handed hitters. For the Tigers, his departure is a chance to turn the page toward a future that looks promising. Detroit's rise might take time, but in the AL Central, it won't take much to hang around contention, as the Tigers were pretty close to doing that last year despite not spending even one day at .500 or better. The fact of the matter is that the Tigers finished 26th in OPS and 29th in slugging from the DH slot, something that should be pretty easy for Scott Harris to improve now that Cabrera has moved on. The focus can now be squarely on Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Jace Jung, Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe, Reese Olson, Parker Meadows, Colt Keith and all the young Tigers. Perhaps even moreso than the possibly chronic offensive struggles of high-priced shortstop Javier Baez, who at least is reportedly changing things up over the winter in an effort to right his sinking ship. If that happens, 2024 could be a lot better in Detroit.
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
Sim wins: 74.0 (Final 2023 rating: 71.7)
Probabilities: 6% (division), 12% (playoffs), 0% (title)
2023 season defined by: The draft
How 2024 could be better: This rebuild in Pittsburgh is getting a little long in the tooth. Last year was an improvement, with the Bucs actually spending 33 days in first place. Pittsburgh led the NL Central as late as mid-June before falling off far enough that once again the Pirates were in offloading mode by the trade deadline. The early-season injury to Oneil Cruz was a downer, but lots of good stuff happened. Ke'Bryan Hayes flashed an encouraging uptick in power while winning his first Gold Glove at third base. Jack Suwinski became a legit power threat, as long as there isn't a lefty on the mound. Young catching prospects Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez showed enough in the majors to make the conversation about the position going forward a complicated one. Mitch Keller has become an established innings-eater in the rotation. David Bednar remains a top closer. Still, as the prospect pipeline begins to flow in Pittsburgh, the most exciting development was the selection of Paul Skenes atop the draft. A potential ace with an elite-grade fastball, Skenes may not open the season at PNC Park, but it shouldn't take him long to get there. When Skenes arrives, this five-year-old rebuilding project might start to take on the look of a successful venture.
25. Los Angeles Angels
Sim wins: 72.6 (Final 2023 rating: 73.4)
Probabilities: 1% (division), 6% (playoffs), 0% (title)
2023 season defined by: Shohei Ohtani
How 2024 could be better: Re-sign Shohei? To be blunt, if Ohtani leaves, the Angels aren't going to be better in 2024. He's just that good. And that's just the performance aspect, as he's also the primary reason to watch the Angels, especially during those long inevitable stretches when Mike Trout is injured. Trout still deserves better than this team, and while he perhaps is content to be a one-team player, which is admirable, in the absence of Ohtani the Angels might have to seriously think of turning the page toward the next era. Trading Trout, if he wants to go, would at least accomplish that.
26. Kansas City Royals
Sim wins: 72.1 (Final 2023 rating: 65.2)
Probabilities: 6% (division), 8% (playoffs), 0% (title)
2023 season defined by: The birth of a star
How 2024 could be better: The Royals were unwatchable for a good stretch of the 2023 season, with a characteristically impatient offensive attack and a bullpen that merited trigger warnings every time it was called. But if you understandably tuned out when the Royals were, say, 44-101 on Sept. 12, you might not have noticed that K.C. actually got a lot better down the stretch. The Royals won 12 of their last 17, which doesn't buy much during a 106-loss season, but at least makes the offseason a little more palatable. And, oh yeah, Bobby Witt Jr.'s ascension has been steep. From July 1 on, Witt hit .310/.351/.578 with 54 runs, 57 RBIs and 26 steals over 77 games. He is, right now, a legitimate star, and he has lots of room for further growth as he hones his plate approach and becomes a more consistent defender. The Royals can make 2024 better by locking up Witt with as long an extension as he's willing to sign. Maybe Royals part-owner Patrick Mahomes can pitch a minority share of the Chiefs as part of the package. Is that allowed?
27. Chicago White Sox
Sim wins: 67.4 (Final 2023 rating: 64.9)
Probabilities: 2% (division), 3% (playoffs), 0% (title)
2023 season defined by: Implosion
How 2024 could be better: Most teams that collapse as precipitately as the White Sox have over the past couple of years can be looked at as bounce-back candidates, at least statistically. Chicago doesn't look like one of those teams, having already dismantled a chunk of a foundation that did win, if only briefly. Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Aaron Bummer, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal, Liam Hendriks, Craig Kimbrel, Cesar Hernandez and Carlos Rodon are among those who are gone from the team that faced the Astros in the 2021 ALDS. Also absent are then-manager Tony La Russa and lead execs Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams. When teams go all-in on a rebuild, this isn't what they have in mind. New top exec Chris Getz has to overcome skepticism and inexperience in turning this around without going into another full-on reset. To say the least, that would be a challenge for even the most seasoned general manager. Something had to change, though, and so it did. For White Sox fans, the best hope for a better 2024 is the upside that comes with uncertainty.
28. Washington Nationals
Sim wins: 66.4 (Final 2023 rating: 66.8)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 2% (playoffs), 0% (title)
2023 season defined by: Steady improvement
How 2024 could be better: The Nationals stunk last season, but the stench was milder than it was in 2021 and 2022. It's not exactly cause for celebration, but enough promising players made their way to D.C. to point toward brighter skies ahead. CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz are clear keepers in the position group, where Lane Thomas toils as one of the more unsung solid players in baseball. Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore began to look like the rotation anchors the Nats hope they can become. In 2024, things might start to get genuinely exciting once again for the Nats, as some of the game's more dynamic prospects start to make their way to Nationals Park. For next season, we're primarily talking about outfielders James Wood and Dylan Crews, but Robert Hassell III could join them. Cade Cavalli would brighten things with a return to health. The Nats took a step forward last season. In 2024, maybe they can take a step and a half.
29. Oakland Athletics
Sim wins: 66.0 (Final 2023 rating: 54.0)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 1% (playoffs), 0% (title)
2023 season defined by: Not baseball
How 2024 could be better: Do we even call them the Oakland Athletics anymore? Well, however you feel about it, it looks like the A's will eventually wind up in Las Vegas. That growing likelihood dominated their story last season as a team with a gutted roster looked early on like a candidate to challenge the all-time loss record. They fell short but, hey, 112 losses is nothing to sneeze at. There are a few young performers around like Zack Gelof and Esteury Ruiz to wish on. Really, though, a better 2024 will simply mean that they figured out where they are going to play in 2025.
30. Colorado Rockies
Sim wins: 59.9 (Final 2023 rating: 60.5)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
2023 season defined by: Nikola Jokic
How 2024 could be better: No, I haven't forgotten what sport I cover these days. But even as the putrid Rockies limped to 59 wins in 2023, they finished 13th in attendance, drawing 32,197 fans per game. That was nearly 1,000 more fans per game than the world champion Rangers. Colorado's attendance was actually up from 2022. No, we can't bury those loyal fans for enabling their aimless franchise. Instead, let's chalk it up to general goodwill in the Denver sports community, ushered in by the Joker himself, who led the Nuggets to their first championship. If only he could hit. Meanwhile, 2024 can be better if the Broncos actually get into the playoffs.