For nearly a month now, baseball's offseason has operated at a relative standstill. That soon will change. Because the hard reality of every winter in baseball will win out, regardless of the pace at which transactions occur: Teams need players, and players need teams.
Yes, some will take their time, happy to exert leverage. Others, though -- fearful of a market moving unexpectedly and leaving a player without a job or a team with no decent options to fill holes -- will end the posturing and parrying and get deals done.
There are plenty of teams whose offseasons hinge on the right addition. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays are chasing the biggest star in the sport, free agent two-way player Shohei Ohtani. The San Diego Padres are entertaining the notion of trading star outfielder Juan Soto. The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are vying for National League East supremacy. The St. Louis Cardinals are trying to avoid mediocrity and the irrelevance that accompanies it.
And yet there are 10 teams whose winters could be even more fascinating than any of the aforementioned. Here they are, in alphabetical order, along with a transaction that makes sense for where they intend to go.
Baltimore Orioles
2023 record: 101-61, first place, American League East
What makes them fascinating: Baltimore already vanquished the AL East. But with Tampa Bay still competitive, Toronto wanting to improve, New York vowing changes and Boston bringing in a new chief baseball officer, the best division in baseball looks like it's going to get even better. So for as good as Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez were in the second half, and for the full year of John Means they expect to get, the Orioles can't rest on their laurels. They want a frontline starter -- and in fact were interested in Aaron Nola, sources said. If Baltimore decides it's disinclined to spend in free agency, their infield glut offers plenty of trade opportunities. To be clear, neither shortstop Gunnar Henderson nor the best prospect in baseball, shortstop Jackson Holliday, is going anywhere. Beyond them, the Orioles have plenty of others with value: prospects Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby and Joey Ortiz, and veterans Ryan Mountcastle, Ramon Urías, Jorge Mateo and Ryan O'Hearn. The Orioles could trade right-fielder Anthony Santander, who's set to make around $12 million in arbitration, and go with an Austin Hays-Cedric Mullins-Colton Cowser/Heston Kjerstad outfield. Baltimore is so deep, and so entrenched in the middle of a window of success, that getting a pitcher with multiple years of control is the move.
The perfect transaction: Acquire right-hander Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox.
Boston Red Sox
2023 record: 78-84, fifth place, AL East
What makes them fascinating: New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow pitched in the big leagues, oversaw the Chicago Cubs' pitching development and now is in charge of fixing the Red Sox's broken pitching pipeline while simultaneously addressing their major league pitching deficiencies. Boston's bats are good, or good enough at least, to avoid having to spend like mad in a down year for free agent hitters -- unless, of course, it's for Ohtani, who has an affinity for Boston. If the Red Sox don't hit that jackpot, they're backfilled nicely with a system that includes outfielder Roman Anthony, shortstop Marcelo Mayer and catcher Kyle Teel, among the best trios of offensive prospects in baseball. The pitching situation, though, is grim. There's no immediate help on the way, and a rotation of Chris Sale, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck won't do much to get the Red Sox out of last place. With a current payroll of just over $150 million and Sale set to hit free agency after the season, Boston has room and need for a frontline starter. While there are plenty of options, one in particular fits the Red Sox best -- though to get him, they'll need to run the risk of waiting, as he's not expected to sign until after next week's Winter Meetings, by which point other starters will have come off the board.
The perfect transaction: Sign free agent right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Chicago Cubs
2023 record: 83-79, second place, NL Central
What makes them fascinating: The last time the Cubs went from also-ran to winner, they skipped the transition season, jumping from a 73-win team to a 97-win juggernaut. A year later, Chicago won the World Series. For this incarnation of the Cubs, the 2023 season was a nice step forward, a nine-game improvement, but nothing like what they did from 2014 to 2015. To exceed the 90-win threshold, it's very simple: They need more talent. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are an elite keystone combination. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki take care of the corner-outfield spots, too. But this team needs more talent. The Cubs need relief pitching and at least one more good starter and a run-producing bat. And while they've got help coming -- right-handers Cade Horton and Ben Brown should debut in 2024, and Pete Crow-Armstrong, Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara could form an entirely new outfield within the next few years -- that's not enough to win next year. For that, the Cubs need to make a splash in the same way they did during the winter between '14 and '15, when they signed Jon Lester for $155 million. And though it might be a long shot, there are splashes, and then there are full-send cannonballs, and the latter takes effort and a willingness to do what others might not. Soon enough we'll know how serious Cubs ownership is about chasing the acquisition of manager Craig Counsell with something even bigger.
The perfect transaction: Sign free agent two-way player Shohei Ohtani.
Chicago White Sox
2023 record: 61-101, fourth place, AL Central
What makes them fascinating: The willingness of new GM Chris Getz to completely tear down the roster of a failed team makes the White Sox among the biggest wild cards this winter. Admittedly the roster is not swollen with desirable trade candidates, but two players in particular could reap the sort of bounty that supercharges a rebuild. The first is Cease, who hasn't missed a start in four seasons. He suffered from some wretched batted-ball luck last season on the way to a 4.58 ERA, and while he's unlikely to match his 2.20 mark from 2022, Cease will be only 28 on Opening Day and comes with two years before free agency. The other is Luis Robert Jr., who hit 38 home runs, stole 20 bases and played an elite center field this year. Getz has said he's not shopping Robert, but he will listen, and if a team is willing to package big league talent with top prospects, Getz would be a fool not to entertain it. Already he showed a desire to improve the White Sox's putrid depth when he shipped reliever Aaron Bummer to Atlanta for five players. As painful as a Robert deal would be -- he has four years left of club control -- the lack of willingness from owner Jerry Reinsdorf to spend like a big-market owner means at least half of those years would be wasted in Chicago. And as good as shortstop prospect Colson Montgomery is going to be -- really, really good -- moving Robert after a career year serves as a hedge against regression. Teams rich in young pitching match up well with Chicago, and while Cleveland is an ideal partner in a vacuum, another team deep in pitching and with a center fielder to return fits nicely, too.
The perfect transaction: Trade centerfielder Luis Robert Jr. to Houston.
Cincinnati Reds
2023 record: 82-80, third place, NL Central
What makes them fascinating: Cincinnati has a bit of Oriole-itis, with too many infielders to fill the four spots. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, Jonathan India and Christian Encarnacion-Strand can't all play every day. (Unless Steer goes to left field full time, which does not seem advisable.) Depth is great, and if the Reds go into this year with all six of their infielders, they'll have it in spades. But none of Cincinnati's returning starters -- Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson -- has ever thrown 150 innings. So the Reds -- who, like the Orioles, also dabbled in the Nola negotiations -- need a starter. Giving up controllable talent for one-year rentals isn't necessarily the Reds' style. Doing so for a frontline type, though, is well within their means talent- and budget-wise, with a payroll that currently stands at $32 million and warrants a bump into nine-figure territory. At the recent owners meetings, Cincinnati's Bob Castellini said he expects to spend this offseason. If he does enough, the Reds could morph into a potential division winner. Maybe that means Eduardo Rodriguez or a return engagement for Sonny Gray. Trades make too much sense, though, and with Corbin Burnes unlikely because Milwaukee shares a division with Cincinnati, going across leagues could help solve the Reds' rotation questions.
The perfect transaction: Acquire right-hander Tyler Glasnow from Tampa Bay.
Milwaukee Brewers
2023 record: 92-70, first place, NL Central
What makes them fascinating: Nobody knows what the Brewers are going to do. On one hand, they already have arguably the most talented roster in the Central -- and 19-year-old outfielder Jackson Chourio, one of the best prospects in the game, spent almost all of the season at Double-A before an end-of-season Triple-A cup of coffee. On the other, as long as owner Mark Attanasio continues to run bottom-third payrolls, Milwaukee will be forced to play the value game, and few carry the value of Burnes and shortstop Willy Adames, both of whom are set to reach free agency after the 2024 season. The Brewers' desire to move either is no sure thing, though -- the division is eminently winnable for the third time in four years -- so our recommended transaction might butt heads with their reality. Unless they believe either Burnes or Adames is due for a precipitous fall, the Brewers would get a plenty-adequate return for either at the trade deadline. All of this leaves people in other organizations wondering if Milwaukee will let the first three months of the season play out before committing to moving Burnes, Adames or even Devin Williams, the all-world closer with two years until free agency and no lack of interested suitors. With the Cubs building stronger, the Reds there, too, the Cardinals ever a threat and Paul Skenes' debut and Oneil Cruz's return about to make Pittsburgh a whole lot better, the Brewers should go for it while they can. And one bat fits their offensive needs, which, at the moment, are first and third base.
The perfect transaction: Sign free agent corner infielder Jeimer Candelario.
New York Mets
2023 record: 75-87, 4th place, NL East
What makes them fascinating: Everything about the Mets is fascinating. Their spending last winter. Their in-season collapse. Their hiring of David Stearns to run baseball operations and Carlos Mendoza to run the clubhouse of a team that had World Series aspirations and wound up the biggest dealer at the deadline. Now comes the part where Stearns and owner Steve Cohen illustrate just how much of a transition year 2024 will be. New York could go searching in the one-year market and get the best players available by bullying with money. But if the Mets really are intent on competing against the Atlantas and Philadelphias of the world, they need far more than what rental arms can provide. A bare-bones rotation -- Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana are the only ones guaranteed spots at this point -- and shaky bullpen calls for someone who eats innings. And when an available pitcher not only does that with aplomb but also has proven he's equipped with the mettle to pitch in New York and the stuff to dominate in the postseason, that's the sort of free agent well worth nine figures.
The perfect transaction: Sign free agent left-hander Jordan Montgomery.
New York Yankees
2023 record: 82-80, fourth place, AL East
What makes them fascinating: Seeing vulnerability from the Yankees is akin to learning about the thermal exhaust port in the Death Star. A machine of such size and success isn't supposed to be so susceptible. When the question is which team had a worse 2023 -- the Yankees, Mets or Padres -- and the answer isn't altogether clear, that's a problem. What's so vexing for the Yankees is the lack of an obvious solution. They've tried to spend, laying out $522 million for Aaron Judge and Carlos Rodon last year, $90 million for DJ LeMahieu in 2021 and $324 million for Gerrit Cole in '19. That kind of money won't be enough, though, because Hal Steinbrenner is not his dad and won't fully spend his way out of a substandard finish. Yes, the Yankees are in strong on Yamamoto, but the fact that arguably the most talented player ever is available in free agency and the Yankees are not believed to be in the mix speaks to their reticence to add the biggest contract in North American sports history to the quartet of Judge, Cole, Rodon and Giancarlo Stanton, who are owed more than $513 million over the next four seasons. If they were able to mitigate the length of a deal by, say, dealing for an impending free agent, it could go a long way to solving their offensive ills, and they could piece together the remainder of a potential contender with other shorter-term deals.
The perfect transaction: Acquire outfielder Juan Soto from San Diego.
San Francisco Giants
2023 record: 79-83, fourth place, NL West
What makes them fascinating: Two years ago, the Giants won 107 games and became the first team since 2013 to beat the Dodgers for the NL West crown. Since then, the Giants have been the epitome of average, following an 81-81 season in 2022 with this year's 79-83 finish. Aside from right-hander Logan Webb, left-hander Kyle Harrison and catcher Patrick Bailey, there is not one sure-thing, going-to-be-here-in-three-years player on the Giants' roster. Their attempt to sign Judge last year fell short, and the Carlos Correa failed-physical debacle kept them from exiting the winter with a franchise-type player. This offseason, Ohtani is a possibility, but should he decide to go elsewhere, the Giants' need to land Yamamoto or Cody Bellinger becomes that much more acute. Perhaps Marco Luciano or Luis Matos or Casey Schmitt grow into productive big leaguers and the concerns about the Giants in the short- and long-term melt away. For now, though, the Giants are simply a team without enough talent to match the Dodgers or even the Arizona Diamondbacks. And considering the state of their farm system, free agency is their best bet to remedy that.
The perfect transaction: Sign free agent centerfielder Cody Bellinger.
Tampa Bay Rays
2023 record: 99-63, second place, AL East
What makes them fascinating: Over the past six years, the Rays have appeared in five postseasons -- and even in the one they missed, they won 90 games. Tampa Bay hasn't necessarily hacked how to win baseball games, but the consistency with which the Rays turn over their roster and keep winning speaks highly of the organization. All of which leads to today, when they're trying to figure out how to manage a payroll that currently projects to nearly $120 million -- $35 million more than they've ever carried into Opening Day. It's why Glasnow, who's due $25 million this season, figures to move. And why Isaac Paredes could find himself dealt as well, even though he's in only his first of four arbitration seasons. Tampa Bay has that same first-world problem as Baltimore and Cincinnati, with Paredes, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Junior Caminero, Curtis Mead, Harold Ramirez, Taylor Walls, Osleivis Basabe and Jonathan Aranda all hungry for infield/designated hitter at-bats. The Rays could find a partner in a pitching-rich team that just traded its third baseman and with whom they have a long history of making deals.
The perfect transaction: Trade third baseman Isaac Paredes to Seattle.