The trades we want to see at MLB's winter meetings

Baseball's winter meetings start Monday, and there's plenty of buzz surrounding this year's free agents, led by Shohei Ohtani.

Still, there's nothing quite like a blockbuster trade. Although these days you likely won't see a superstar traded for another superstar, there are a few big names who could switch cities for the right package of prospects. Juan Soto, for one, has been the talk of MLB executives as being available this winter. Could the San Diego Padres strike a deal with the New York Yankees? Or how about with ... the Seattle Mariners?

Starting with Soto, ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield and Kiley McDaniel run through some of the All-Star caliber players who would rock Nashville if they're traded next week. For each, they break down the teams that would make the most sense -- and would be the most fun -- as destinations, and what each of them might offer up in return.

The San Diego Padres should trade Juan Soto to the ...

Schoenfield: Seattle Mariners

Or put it this way: Seattle should trade for Soto. The Mariners have seen their American League West rivals in Houston and Texas win the past two World Series, so the pressure is on to improve in a significant way, especially after seeing the Rangers leapfrog over them as the main competitors to the Astros. Seattle has the farm system to make a Soto trade with major league-ready talent, top 100 prospects like Harry Ford and Cole Young, and younger international players.

Seattle's Jerry Dipoto and San Diego's A.J. Preller have been frequent trade partners, making this a possibility even if the Mariners wouldn't be considered the most likely destination. Note as well that the M's cleared payroll with Teoscar Hernandez in free agency and the Eugenio Suarez trade.

McDaniel: New York Yankees

There are about a half dozen teams you could make a case for, but there's only really one that makes perfect sense. The Yankees are looking to make a splash to bounce back from a horrid 2023, and they have a lot of upper-minors prospects to entice San Diego. In addition to the Mariners, the Cubs, Rangers, Red Sox and Giants all make some sense, but it also wouldn't be surprising if none of those teams make serious offers. The Yankees almost certainly will, however. Both teams might accept a package like righty Chase Hampton (a top 100 prospect who will likely open 2024 in Triple-A), outfielder Everson Pereira (a former top 100 prospect who debuted late in 2023) and infielder George Lombard Jr. (a 2023 first-round pick).

The New York Mets should trade Pete Alonso to the ...

Schoenfield: Chicago Cubs

I'd like to see the Mets sign Alonso to an extension, considering his connection to the fans and his importance to the lineup -- he has averaged 44 home runs per season in his four full years, and sluggers like that aren't exactly easy to find. But I can also see why the Mets might be hesitant to give him a huge extension. He'll be 30 in his first post free agency year, and over the past three seasons, there have been just nine 4-WAR seasons from a first baseman 30 or older -- five of those by Freddie Freeman or Paul Goldschmidt, who are better all-around hitters than Alonso. Alonso has had three 4-WAR seasons, but will they continue after he turns 30?

If we're going to make a deal here, the Cubs are a good fit. They're looking to contend, they need a first baseman, they need to replace Cody Bellinger's production if he leaves, and they have one of the deepest farm systems in the game. The Mets can ask about reacquiring center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, but that's not going to happen. Christopher Morel is kind of a man without a position with the Cubs, so maybe the Mets could pry him away, or maybe they go for one of Chicago's pitching prospects.

McDaniel: Milwaukee Brewers

There were deadline discussions between the Mets and Brewers about Alonso and now the former head of Milwaukee's baseball operations, David Stearns, is running things for the Mets. I'm leaning toward Dave's point that the Mets should hold onto him as one of the key pieces of their next winning club, but I could see how Stearns would say that paying retail on a nine-figure deal for a first baseman in his 30s isn't the direction he wants to go. The Brewers still make sense if they decide to keep their core together and go for it this year, but they might also deal Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames. If the Brewers subtract and the Mets want to make a deal, then Baltimore makes the most sense. With the Orioles' wealth of young talent, a trade would be easy to put together -- something like outfielders Dylan Beavers or Jud Fabian as a headliner with a fringe 40-man guy or rookie-level lottery ticket thrown in.

The Los Angeles Angels should trade Mike Trout to the ...

Schoenfield: Philadelphia Phillies

Well, I already wrote why the Phillies should trade for Trout -- although that was before the Aaron Nola signing, so dealing for Trout now might push the payroll to uncomfortable levels. Plus, keep in mind that Trout has full no-trade protection, so that further limits the Angels' options. It's hard not to throw this out there, however: Yankees outfielders hit just .220/.293/.399 in 2023 (26th in the majors in OPS) -- and that was with Aaron Judge. They want left-handed hitting help, but would they turn down Trout if the Angels are willing to trade him?

McDaniel: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are the only team that really makes sense. Some big-market clubs could use a big-money star, but only the Phillies are among those who would do something like this while also having the lure for Trout of being a homecoming. The deal would be complicated, with one or more bad contracts going the other way, like the trades that sent Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals or Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees. The Rangers are the other team you could make an argument for, but I'm not sure they want to make that bold of a move when things are going this well. Trout is exactly the sort of player Yankees GM Brian Cashman seems to be trying to steer away from (older, injury prone, big contract), but they are another semi-homecoming candidate.

The New York Yankees should trade Gleyber Torres to the ...

Schoenfield: Pittsburgh Pirates

The thinking here is that Torres is in his final season before free agency, scheduled to make an estimated $15 million, and is coming off two pretty good seasons after a downturn in 2020-21. The Yankees have other options for second base and might want to clear his salary to create more space for a Soto trade or Bellinger signing or whatever big move(s) they make. This is a hard fit because Torres' projected salary is higher than small-market teams will want to go and most contenders are set at second. The one team that needs a second baseman: the Red Sox. Yeah, good luck making a trade there. So maybe the Pirates? Second-worst WAR at second base in 2023 and their payroll is so low they could absorb Torres' salary.

McDaniel: Seattle Mariners

There are a lot of options here because most teams can afford a $15 million salary, have the prospects to acquire Torres, and would be fine with the one-year term before he hits free agency. Seattle just traded Suarez and is in go-for-it mode with Luis Urias and Josh Rojas starting at third and second base. Once free agent third baseman Matt Chapman and Jeimer Candelario come off the board, it's just role players and bounce-back types left, so the market for Torres should heat up. I'd think Seattle is at the front of that line if it doesn't sign either of those free agents, and trading righty Emerson Hancock should get the deal done.

The Tampa Bay Rays should trade Tyler Glasnow to the ...

Schoenfield: Chicago Cubs

So now I've added Alonso and Glasnow -- but the Cubs have the farm system to make both trades and the payroll space to add Glasnow's $25 million salary. Marcus Stroman is a free agent, so the Cubs do need another front-of-the-rotation starter to join Justin Steele. Glasnow should be ready to go 180-plus innings in his second season back from Tommy John surgery (although we should note his career high was 2023's 120 innings).

McDaniel: San Diego Padres

Glasnow is a particular kind of pitcher, with hellacious stuff and enough command to be effective. The Rays do well developing this kind of pitcher and the Padres clearly like trading for them, with an opening as Blake Snell is likely to leave San Diego. The Dodgers -- who have some Rays DNA with president Andrew Friedman -- also like this sort of pitcher, need more starters for 2024 and don't have a giant long-term need given their system depth and currently injured options, so Glasnow fits them particularly well, too.

The Chicago White Sox should trade Dylan Cease to the ...

Schoenfield: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have to be in on one of these starting pitchers. I don't think GM Mike Elias' strategy is to spend nine figures on a risky free agent like Snell or Jordan Montgomery, as he would prefer to trade from his farm system depth and take a starter like Cease, who has two seasons until free agency. The Orioles are loaded with infielders and the White Sox are desperate for infield help. Actually, the White Sox are desperate for just about anything. If they're focusing on pitching as the primary return for Cease, there might be a better match, but the Orioles have a deep list of position players.

McDaniel: Atlanta Braves

The Braves have been clearing roster spots and payroll space for a big move that many first thought would be signing Nola. Then there was buzz they could add Sonny Gray -- who just signed with the Cardinals -- but now it could be Cease, who's from Georgia. I don't think GM Alex Anthopoulos wants to add a rental pitcher, so Cease also fits the Braves' needs with two years of control. That said, their farm system has just barely enough to make that deal -- it might take three of the top five prospects to get in striking distance -- so it would be close to an all-in deal for Atlanta. The Orioles also fit, as Dave said, and a deal would be much easier, as would one with San Diego.

The Milwaukee Brewers should trade Corbin Burnes to the ...

Schoenfield: Los Angeles Dodgers

We have to get the Dodgers in here somewhere, right? They're going to have to replace Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin in the rotation, three pitchers who made 20-plus starts. Bobby Miller is the only returning starter who qualifies as a "sure thing," although they're hopeful Walker Buehler will return at his previous level. Even if they sign Shohei Ohtani, he's not pitching in 2024. So there's a little sense of desperation here, and if the Brewers do decide to trade Burnes, the Dodgers aren't hanging up the phone, not when it comes to acquiring a potential No. 1 starter.

The Brewers can ask about a slew of major-league-ready starters like Emmett Sheehan, Ryan Pepiot and Gavin Stone, or Nick Frasso, Landon Knack and River Ryan, who aren't far away. Infielder Jorbit Vivas had a .381 OBP at Double-A. Outfielder Andy Pages has a big upside if he can cut down on the strikeouts. Heck, maybe this trade is expanded to include Willy Adames, with the Dodgers getting Gavin Lux back at second base as he returns from injury.

McDaniel: Baltimore Orioles

There are some similarities in style and repertoire between Burnes and pitchers the O's have selected and developed. Since they'd basically be trading for Burnes on a one-year, roughly $15 million deal, that would limit the prospect price and eliminate the long-term commitment spanning non-prime years that Baltimore would have to be OK with. I can't exclude the Padres, Dodgers or other contenders here, but Baltimore fits Burnes best.

The Cleveland Guardians should trade Shane Bieber to the ...

Schoenfield: Nobody. Keep him ... at least for now.

First off, while Bieber did return at the end of the season to make two starts, he's coming off an injury. His trade value isn't anywhere close to where it was even last offseason. And while the Guardians have all those rookie starters who impressed in 2023 -- Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen -- they already traded Cal Quantrill, so they've cut into their depth. Triston McKenzie is coming off shoulder problems that limited him to four starts. Factor in that the AL Central is certainly winnable and a rotation that features Bieber, McKenzie and the three rookies could end up as one of the best in the game, and I'm inclined to believe Cleveland keeps Bieber unless it gets overwhelmed with an offer.

McDaniel: New York Mets

Now we're agreeing too much because I also think the Guardians should hold on to Bieber. His value is down enough at the moment that the return wouldn't be huge, and Cleveland would be among the top teams I'd bet on to right the ship and rebuild his value anyway. There's a real shot he bounces back and headlines a playoff rotation, but if things don't work out that way, I can see a fit with the Mets. They need to add innings and Stearns will be focused on avoiding big long-term deals or trading top prospects, instead looking for upside that can be teased out via development.