The offseason rumor mill is understandably focused on the top 15 free agents. About half that group will receive contracts of $100 million or greater -- and maybe five times that much in the case of Shohei Ohtani. The others in the top 15 could all top $50 million in total value. These are the players who will make the biggest headlines when they sign.
Sometimes, however, the offseason is won with the next tier of free agents. Just look at the Texas Rangers. Their most important signing proved not to be the $185 million they gave Jacob deGrom but the two-year, $34 million contract given to Nathan Eovaldi, who went 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA in the regular season and then went 5-0 in the postseason as the Rangers won all six of the games he started en route to a World Series title.
Using Kiley McDaniel's list of top 50 free agents as a guide, let's look at players ranked outside of the top 15 and pinpoint a few of my favorite under-the-radar free agents.
If you need center-field defense: Kevin Kiermaier
Possible fits: San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros
Serious question: Is Kiermaier the greatest defensive outfielder of all time? It's a legitimate debate. According to the defensive metrics applied at Baseball-Reference.com, Kiermaier is seventh all time in fielding runs among outfielders, behind only Andruw Jones, Roberto Clemente, Willie Mays, Jim Piersall, Barry Bonds and Paul Blair. His per-inning rate, however, is higher than any of those guys -- and it's not particularly close. The point here: Kiermaier can still chase down fly balls with the best of them. He's coming off a Gold Glove and, via Statcast, tied for second among outfielders in 2023 in fielding runs saved.
Even at 34 -- which is long in the tooth for most center fielders -- Kiermaier is worth a look. He played for Toronto last season on a one-year, $9 million contract (although that was coming off an injury in 2022) and hit .265/.322/.419, so that price might either go up or require a two-year deal. Throw in his great defense and he was worth 3.9 bWAR, making him a nice Plan B option for the Giants or Yankees if they don't land Cody Bellinger, or for teams like the Nationals or Pirates who could upgrade their defense. The Mets could move Brandon Nimmo to left field while the Red Sox could move Jarren Duran to right if they trade Alex Verdugo, but my sleeper team is Houston. Dusty Baker clearly wasn't a big fan of Chas McCormick, even though his defensive metrics in center were solid. If new manager Joe Espada feels similarly, Kiermaier makes sense in center while McCormick moves to left, Yordan Alvarez primarily DHs and Mauricio Dubon is used in a utility role.
The DHs: J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler, Justin Turner, Joc Pederson
Possible fits: Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Guardians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers
Front offices are generally loath to spend money on a full-time DH -- or to commit a roster spot to somebody who can't help in the field -- but this offseason presents a golden opportunity for teams that could use DH production. With a plethora of options, there could be bargains here. Indeed, the first five teams listed above all ranked in the bottom six in OPS from their DHs in 2023. The Marlins need to re-sign or replace Soler, the Angels will have a hole if they don't re-sign Ohtani, and the Dodgers might go back to Martinez or even Turner if they don't sign Ohtani.
All four of these guys had strong seasons at the plate in 2023 with McDaniel's highest projected contract going to Soler at three years and $37.5 million, which would take him from his age-32 through age-34 seasons. He's also the most inconsistent of the group, however, hitting 36 home runs for the Marlins in 2023 but struggling in an injury-plagued 2022. Martinez will be 36 but is coming off a .271/.321/.572 season with the Dodgers, mashing 33 home runs in 113 games. He had the sixth-highest hard-hit rate among qualified hitters, but he also had the highest strikeout rate of his career and his lowest walk rate since 2014. So, there is some fall-off-the-table risk here if the batting average declines but also a lot of power.
Turner still has a great approach and hit .276/.345/.455 at age 38 for the Red Sox last season. He opted out of a $13.4 million player option (but still received a $6.7 million buyout) and could receive another similar two-year deal despite his age. He can also fill in at first base or third in an emergency. Pederson is the youngest of the group (a couple of months younger than Soler) and posted better-than-average strikeout and walk rates, but I'd rank him fourth primarily because he's a platoon hitter and is essentially now unplayable in the field.
None of these guys will wreck a payroll, and all will come with nice offensive upside. Diamondbacks DHs hit .218 with a .286 OBP. Mariners DHs hit .211 with a .290 OBP. Tigers DHs hit 13 home runs. It makes sense for any of those teams to use a roster spot on one of these guys.
(Heck, we can even throw Mitch Garver into the DH category. He hit .270/.370/.500 with 19 home runs in 87 games for the Rangers. He started 27 games at catcher so could still fill a DH/backup catcher role, although he's been injured enough the past four seasons that you probably don't want to rely on him as starting catcher any longer.)
Solid contributor: LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Possible fits: Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies
McDaniel predicts a three-year, $45 million deal for Gurriel who has averaged 2.6 WAR per season the past three years and is entering his age-30 season. If that's the deal that lands him, it might not be any kind of huge steal, but Gurriel has been a reliable player and what strikes me is how weak left field has become: eight teams received an OPS under .700 from their left fielders in 2023. Gurriel lost his power stroke with the Blue Jays in 2022, hitting just five home runs, but rebounded with 24 home runs with Arizona in 2023 and had his best defensive season. He doesn't walk much but has struck out less than 20% of the time three seasons in a row and teams will find that contact rate appealing, considering it a good sign that he can remain productive in his early 30s.
The Giants actually had the lowest OPS in left field, but with Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger -- last year's free agent signings -- still on the roster, the Giants are unlikely to bring in another corner outfielder, even though those two underwhelmed. A return to Arizona makes sense if the Diamondbacks increase their payroll, as does a return to Toronto, with Daulton Varsho sliding over to center on a full-time basis. The Phillies are my sleeper team here as Johan Rojas' struggles in the playoffs led president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to say that he'll have to earn a spot on the team next season. Brandon Marsh can return to center and Gurriel would give them a contact hitter that improves their ranking in that area (20th in the majors in strikeout rate).
Bulk innings eater: RHP Nick Martinez
Possible fits: Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks
Martinez is a rare player in today's game: a multiple-inning reliever who can also start. He's pitched primarily in relief with the Padres the past two seasons, starting 19 games while appearing 91 times in relief. There's nothing too fancy about him as he works off a 93-mph fastball with a changeup and curveball, both solid swing-and-miss options, but it's that flexibility that will have a lot of teams interested. McDaniel predicts a two-year, $25 million deal after the Padres turned down a two-year, $32 million option (while Martinez declined an $8 million player option).
He makes sense for any team needing pitching depth -- which, of course, is every team -- and don't discount the idea of some team wanting to make him a full-time starter. He had a 2.32 ERA in his nine starts for the Padres in 2023. The Dodgers and Diamondbacks certainly saw plenty of him in the NL West and both teams need rotation depth. The Mariners are an interesting fit as they could sign Martinez as a starter, perhaps freeing them up to then trade one of their young starting pitchers for some offensive help.
Rising reliever: RHP Robert Stephenson
Possible fits: Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox
Stephenson isn't going to come cheap -- McDaniel projects a three-year, $30 million contract -- but after 38 amazing innings with the Rays, he suddenly looks like a high-leverage, dominant relief pitcher. Not bad for a guy the Rockies waived in August 2022. The difference? After the Rays acquired him from the Pirates in June, Stephenson developed a cutter and started throwing a splitter more often, going from a four-seamer/slider guy to a four-pitch reliever. Batters hit just .101 against the cutter, which he threw 41% of the time after joining Tampa Bay, and he racked up 60 strikeouts and just eight walks there.
He's certainly priced himself out of Tampa Bay. You have to think a contending team like the Rangers or Cubs would view him as a key component to improving their bullpens and offer that $10 million per season. Put it this way: If Stephenson's gains with the Rays are for real, I'd take him for $30 million over Josh Hader at nine figures. With the Rays, Stephenson held batters to a .138/.187/.300 line. Hader held batters to a .163/.284/.224 line in 2023. Yes, it's just four months at that level for Stephenson, but he was so good that I'm buying into the performance -- and I bet some front office will as well.
From bust to bargain: C Gary Sanchez
Possible fits: Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros
Sanchez's career will always be viewed through the lens of what he did in 2016-17, when he belted 53 home runs in 175 games with the Yankees. He hit another 34 home runs in 2019 but the Yankees tired of his defensive transgressions and low batting averages and moved on. He didn't hit well with the Twins in 2022 and the Giants and Mets let him go in 2023 before he signed with the Padres, where he was reasonably productive, hitting .218/.292/.500 with 19 home runs in 72 games. He is what he is at offense at this point: a low average/low OBP slugger. For a catcher, that's still useful.
Here's the surprising thing though: Has Sanchez actually turned into a solid defender? He rated above average in both pitch framing (64th percentile) and caught stealing rate (76th percentile), although his blocking remained below average (but not unacceptable). The Padres finished with the second-lowest ERA in the majors and Cy Young winner Blake Snell praised Sanchez's work. The Marlins and Rays both have just one catcher on their 40-man roster, while the Astros could replace Martin Maldonado with a Sanchez-Yainer Diaz combo that might combine for 40 home runs.
Best bet to be 2024's Eovaldi: LHP James Paxton
Possible fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox
Paxton pitched 96 innings with the Red Sox in 2023 -- which isn't many for a starting pitcher but was his most since 2019 after a long recovery from Tommy John surgery. Needless to say, a team signing Paxton isn't expecting 30 starts and 180 innings, but the reason I like him over some reclamation projects like Jack Flaherty or Luis Severino is his stuff was back to where it was in 2018-19, including a fastball that averaged 95.2 mph.
It's all about staying healthy. Once he returned in May, Paxton did that for four months and had a 3.34 ERA on Aug. 16. Then came three bad starts that pushed his final ERA to 4.50 and he missed most of September with right knee inflammation, which certainly might have affected him those final three outings. I could see him landing with the Dodgers on McDaniel's projected one-year, $12 million contract, being handled carefully through 22 starts in the regular season and then going 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA in the postseason as the Dodgers win it all (with Ohtani hitting two home runs in Game 7 of the World Series).