I recently shared thoughts on each player when I dove into my top 50 projected free agent contracts, but I didn't fully tip my hand on what players would be the best investments. Now I'll pick the three players from this free agent market in whom I'd be most comfortable investing from a team's perspective -- and the three I'd stay away from, given what I think their contracts will look like.
There are broad ideas that generally apply to free agents for "smart" teams that chase a solid return on investment (ROI) -- avoid long-term and/or nine-figure deals, especially on pitchers and particularly relievers -- but there are counterexamples to all of them. So I'll focus more on specific players and their characteristics rather than basing my analysis on broad demographics.
To keep the invest/avoid lists diverse, each group of three needs to have at least one position player and one pitcher, one player projected for at least $50 million guaranteed and one player projected for a one-year deal.
Three free agents to be wary of
1. Blake Snell, LHP
This is one player whom I did cover in some depth in my rankings. Snell could very well be the next Max Scherzer -- a power-based starting pitcher who ages well when it comes to velocity and strikeouts, en route to a big ROI on what I predicted will be a $150 million deal.
After all, Snell just won the National League Cy Young -- but on the other hand, he did so by outperforming his peripherals by about 1½ runs. He led the league in walks and has thrown 130-plus innings only twice in his career. That sounds an awful lot like Carlos Rodon, the worst free agent deal from last winter, and if that sounds like recency bias, the other two recent stuff-over-command lefty starters given nine-figure deals are Patrick Corbin and Robbie Ray, also disastrous contracts for their clubs.
This subset of highly paid pitchers doing poorly does make some logical sense:
The rarest thing a contending team can land is a power lefty starter.
Clubs will be willing to overpay to get them.
Nine-figure free agent deals often come after career years with post-peak seasons ahead.
Stuff-over-command pitchers often have nothing to fall back on in their 30s, once their stuff/physical prowess regresses.
2. Cody Bellinger, CF
Bellinger was one of the best young players in baseball when he won the NL MVP in 2019 for his 7.8 WAR age-23 season, oddly standing out defensively at both center field and first base. Things started falling apart from there, due in large part to a shoulder injury, and while Bellinger had a big swing that was reliant on his athleticism and bat speed, nobody thought a decline would happen that quickly.
That could have been curtains for Bellinger, but in the words of Lee Corso -- not so fast, my friend. The decline stopped this year, though not due to a return to form. Instead, Bellinger started doing things differently at the plate. He now has a more sustainable approach and swing but with far less power, designed to hit more offspeed stuff than to gear up for fastballs swinging like someone in a long-drive golf competition. Switching to an approach that will age better is good for the long-term value of a guy going into his age-28 season, but there are still issues that force me to be out on Bellinger at this offseason's prices -- I project him for seven years, $147 million, which could be an underestimation.
There's now far less power upside and he also overperformed his underlying peripherals by a near-league-leading amount in 2023. While he's still conventionally at a prime age, it will cause the contract to be much longer, without the upside to give him a chance to subsidize the back end of the deal with a standout first few years. I think he'll be good for the first half of this contract, but not good enough that a series of platoon/role players on short-term deals could also combine to give you 75% of his production for 50% of the price and no long-term commitment.
It's great that Bellinger has shown the ability to make an adjustment, because he'll need to continue doing that, but he will demand a huge long-term deal and has produced some of the highest highs and lowest lows in the sport in the past four seasons. I can't stomach roughly $150 million to $200 million for that kind of variance, on top of a tiny chance that the upside of the past comes back in the future.
3. James Paxton, LHP
I am generally against guaranteeing more than a few million dollars to starting pitchers with durability issues. That puts Paxton in a bad demographic already, and on top of that, some of his specifics are also quite negative. He just turned 35 and had his best season since 2019, but he still didn't throw 100 innings. His velocity dipped throughout the year -- as did basically every other statistic -- and the last-place Boston Red Sox didn't trade him at the deadline. My informed guess is that it was because of a lack of interest at the trade price Boston was demanding.
I'd much rather invest in a pitcher like Tyler Mahle (just turned 29, returning from Tommy John surgery for the 2024 season, coming off of two-plus strong seasons) on a one-year deal with a bigger club option for a comparable guaranteed amount as Paxton.
Three free agents to invest in
1. Sonny Gray, RHP
The commitment to land Gray is mostly muted by his age (he turned 34 this month), his size (listed at 5-foot-10 and under 200 lbs) and his fringe-average fastball velocity (92.8 mph this season). That said, I love Gray for the projected terms (three years, $69 million) because of what he can do. Despite his size, he's been durable. Despite his velocity, his fastball plays above average by any metric and his slider is even better. His velocity actually ticked up almost one full mph in 2023, so the elements of age-related decline that scare me about Snell just don't apply here. Gray probably won't be a breakout star, but if you can merely get what you pay for from a second/third starter in free agency, you're way ahead of the game.
2. Shota Imanaga, LHP
I originally had Aaron Nola as the top option in this section before he signed Sunday, with the logic outlined from my free agent rankings that elite pitchers without elite velocity are often underrated. That logic/profile continued with Gray and now continues again with the 30-year-old Imanaga. He's a near lock to be posted, and it should happen sometime soon, which will begin a 45-day window to negotiate with clubs.
Imagana is similar to Gray in that he has good shape/playability to a medium-velocity fastball -- he's also not that big, listed at 5-foot-10, 176 lbs. Similar to Nola, Imanaga throws strikes; he has four pitches that work against both lefties and righties. I have him projected for four years, $64 million (plus a posting fee to his NPB club that would be a bit over $11 million for those terms). I could see a five-year deal but given the lower perceived upside, I thought four years was a bit more likely -- and I'd be in at that price.
3. Tim Anderson, SS
To be clear, this is no pitch for Anderson having a sneaky good 2023 -- that doesn't exist. He was terrible in all facets for a disappointing Chicago White Sox team. His defensive metric regression has been gentle enough to suggest he's lost a notch of athleticism, as he's now 30 years old. He's always relied more on bat speed than a patient approach, another style that doesn't seem to age well. Seemingly all at once, his strikeout rate spiked by 8% while his four-year decline in isolated power continued.
That said, he's still fine defensively at short and should still be a strong multipositional option with real defensive and baserunning value. Bellinger is a great example of trading a bit of upside with an unsustainable long-term offensive approach for something that can help him bounce back to being a solid-not-great everyday player.
For a team that excels at hitter development (I'm thinking the Los Angeles Dodgers or Baltimore Orioles, though why not the Chicago Cubs?), Anderson makes a ton of sense for a one-year deal -- with a club option for a $10 million to $12 million guarantee -- as a super utility player who could go back to being what he was for the previous five seasons, but would still give a solid return if he was just a good role player.
When I thought about this category, I also almost included Gary Sanchez and Tommy Pham as solid targets for one-year deals with a strong projected WAR-per-dollar return in my eyes. In the end, the potential list of targeted team investments ended up much longer than the list of players to stay away from ... I guess I'm an optimist?