Shohei Ohtani's free agency has been mostly a mystery, but we can at least say this confidently: It will produce massive amounts of money.
How much, who it will come from and what other factors will ultimately sway Ohtani's decision ... well, that remains unknown. Everything -- at least in the public's purview -- still feels possible. And perhaps that's fitting, given the nature of what we're dealing with.
Ohtani is the first two-way player in more than a century and the biggest baseball star in the world. His free agency was already going to be one of the most fascinating in recent memory. Then he re-tore his ulnar collateral ligament in August, and a situation that was already without precedent became that much more complicated.
Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the orthopedic surgeon who performed the surgery, wrote in a statement on Sept. 19 that Ohtani, 29, will be ready to hit by the start of 2024 and resume his role as a two-way player the year after. How this will actually play out, however, is anybody's guess.
Teams chasing Ohtani seem certain of his desire to return as a two-way player, and most tend to believe he'll be on the mound again by 2025. But they also wonder how long he'll last as a pitcher, a natural concern for a player who has now undergone two elbow reconstructions within a five-year period. There isn't much precedent -- outside of perhaps Nathan Eovaldi, who had Tommy John surgery in high school and then again in the major leagues -- for pitchers thriving in the wake of two UCL repairs, let alone while also hitting full time.
The intrigue and uncertainty that surrounds Ohtani is exceedingly unique.
It's a combination that insiders throughout the sport believe might inspire innovation.
Here are five contract structures, as suggested by front-office executives, that could make sense for a situation as singular as Ohtani's -- and the team that might fit each dynamic best.
High price, high incentives
In the summer of 2022, the Seattle Mariners got together with Julio Rodriguez's agent, Ulises Cabrera of Octagon, to hammer out one of the most unique, complex extensions in recent memory.
It amounted to a massive hedge. The deal guaranteed Rodriguez -- at that point a rookie center fielder who would've been eligible for free agency at just 26 years old -- won't be grossly underpaid if he continues to perform like a superstar, but also protected the Mariners if his production eventually slips. It's at minimum a 12-year, $219.3 million deal, but it can max out at $469.3 million -- plus annual awards bonuses -- over 17 years, with a menu of options for both the Mariners and Rodriguez based largely off MVP votes.
One executive pointed to this deal as a potential blueprint for Ohtani, though shorter in length and bigger in annual value in his case. "Julio Rodriguez, but bigger," he said. The appeal is that it contains a high floor and an array of options that would give both sides flexibility based on how Ohtani's career as a two-way player progresses.
Here's a basic example of how it could work on a 10-year deal if we follow the Rodriguez model: Ohtani gets paid $250 million over his first five years, setting a record for average annual value. If at the end of that stretch he's thriving as a two-way player, receiving MVP and Cy Young votes, he can trigger his biggest option, valued at, let's say, another $300 million. If he's only hitting by that point, the lowest option might be somewhere closer to $150 million.
In this hypothetical, it's a 10-year deal worth anywhere between $400 million and $550 million, based on accolades accrued in the first half of it (and, for extra protection, perhaps also starts or innings in Year 5).
Most logical fit: Texas Rangers. The World Series champions will be paying Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jacob deGrom as much as $277 million from 2026 to 2028, and have several promising young position players on track to be making big money by then, too. They could use some protection on the back half of a long-term deal, given that they'd probably like to continue to be aggressive. Their resources are not infinite.
A bat-worthy contract -- plus some
There might be reason to be pessimistic about Ohtani's pitching future, but you'd be hard-pressed to find anybody in the industry who isn't bullish about what he is and what he'll continue to be offensively.
Ohtani is an elite power hitter who is coming off his best offensive season (with a major league-best 1.066 OPS) and continues to make strides with his swing-and-miss rate. But he also boasts above-average speed, and people throughout the sport believe he possesses the athleticism to become a regular outfielder if the pitching side does not work out.
With that in mind, one front-office executive for a team that is not expected to compete for Ohtani brought up Aaron Judge's nine-year, $360 million contract, signed last December, as a floor, believing Ohtani to be comparable in that realm. Interestingly enough, Judge and Ohtani hit in almost the exact same number of games during the six seasons that preceded their free agencies (Judge: 702, Ohtani: 701):
Judge (2017-22): .287/.398/.590, 216 HR, 487 RBIs, 40 SB, 168 wRC+
Ohtani (2018-23): .274/.366/.556, 171 HR, 437 RBIs, 86 SB, 146 wRC+
Judge was better. But Ohtani wasn't that far off. He also became a free agent 14 months younger than Judge did, and he might ultimately have more interested suitors to drive up his price.
But the value of Judge's extension with the New York Yankees -- or something in that neighborhood -- would essentially be half of Ohtani's new deal. The rest would take care of the pitching side, and could be highly incentivized based on starts and innings accumulated on an annual basis. Based on Judge's contract, that would mean a minimum yearly value of $40 million that could increase based on how much Ohtani contributes on the mound in a given season.
Most logical fit: Los Angeles Dodgers. They're currently juggling a pursuit of Ohtani with a desire to beef up their starting rotation. Their payroll situation looks pretty favorable for a team that perennially exceeds the luxury-tax threshold -- only Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are on the books beyond 2025 -- but they'd prefer to pay a premium only if they're getting meaningful pitching from Ohtani. They also have the best chance of maximizing him as a position player if it comes to that.
Options, options and more options
Ohtani's new contract, in whatever form it takes, is widely expected to contain at least one opt-out. It makes sense for him to push for a deal that would allow him to retest the market next winter, when he's still just 30 years old and has a better understanding for how he'll bounce back as a pitcher -- and perhaps again the year after, when he has actually performed on the mound again.
It could be fascinating to see how it works as a conditional opt-out.
One executive pointed to the deal reliever Chad Green signed with the Toronto Blue Jays in January, when he was midway through his recovery from Tommy John surgery, as a smaller-scale example.
After paying Green a base salary of $2.25 million in 2023, the Blue Jays had a three-year, $27 million club option at their disposal, which they declined. Green then had a $6.25 million player option for 2024. He declined it, as well, which gave the Blue Jays the option of exercising something near the middle, valued at $21 million over two years.
Here's how something like that could work at Ohtani's level: He's paid, say, $30 million in 2024, a record for a designated hitter but a lower value in general given he's not expected to pitch next season. The team then has the option of picking up what Ohtani's side would probably negotiate as an exceedingly high club option -- let's go with $500 million over nine years. They decline that, and Ohtani gets a one-year option at, say, $50 million, so that it's worth his while to stay in 2025. If he declines, too, then there's a mutual option at a different price point, providing each side with one last option.
If either side declines, Ohtani is a free agent again next offseason.
Most logical fit: Los Angeles Angels. Their best path toward bringing Ohtani back is comfort. By all accounts, he likes living in Orange County. (It probably doesn't hurt that his interpreter and sidekick, Ippei Mizuhara, was born and raised in Diamond Bar, about 15 miles north of Anaheim.) He has also rehabbed Tommy John surgery with them before and came out of it as a transcendent two-way player. He can lean on familiarity next season. If he feels good about the direction under new manager Ron Washington, he might just stay.
Short-term Shohei
It doesn't seem to make much sense, given the amount of money he'd leave on the table. But some of those who have spent a considerable amount of time around him in recent years believe he'd consider a shorter deal under the right circumstances.
One potential reason: Ohtani already makes so much money off the field that flexibility might be more important than staying locked into one place to secure more guaranteed dollars.
Another: He'd be able to maximize his earning potential by signing another mega contract later in his career.
In that sense, Ohtani would be making a massive bet on himself -- not unlike what he did six years ago, when he left Japan early and sacrificed millions of dollars by not qualifying as a traditional free agent.
Ohtani's best chance at the highest average annual value possible, of course, is on a shorter deal. A five-year contract, for example, could net him $60 million annually, blowing past the record of $43.3 million currently held by Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. And it could throw a bunch of other teams into the mix.
Most logical fit: Seattle Mariners. The Rodriguez extension included less money up front partly to free up payroll flexibility in the early years. Some of their other best players -- Cal Raleigh, Jarred Kelenic, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby -- are early enough in their careers to still be a bargain. If ever there was a time for the Mariners to afford a player like Ohtani, it's now -- even though they might not think so themselves.
Lots of suitors = one big number
Perhaps this is all much simpler. Ohtani has the most unique skill set in baseball history. He's a relatively young free agent. He has the ability to expand a team's brand to another side of the globe and bring in an additional tens of millions of dollars in advertising revenue. And his market is robust, tender elbow notwithstanding.
"He's going to get $500 million," one exec said, echoing the thoughts of many others. "I still think that's where we end up."
Ohtani's longtime Angels teammate, Mike Trout, still holds the salary record at $426.5 million stretched out over 12 years. And Ohtani is widely projected to blow past that, including by ESPN's Kiley McDaniel ($520 million over 10 years).
Keep this in mind: Negotiations for Ohtani will ultimately end up at the ownership level, and billionaire owners have a tendency of getting ultra-competitive when it comes to players of this magnitude. As one agent pointed out: Every serious suitor is going to feel good about offering incentives and including creative opt-outs. The separator -- outside of Ohtani's own proclivities -- could be a fat, traditional, fully guaranteed deal for a bunch of years and a bunch of dollars.
Most logical fit: New York Mets. Their owner, Steve Cohen, is worth an estimated $20 billion. Last offseason alone, he spent more than $450 million on just six players, shooting the Mets' 2023 payroll up to $330 million by Opening Day. He's so rich they unofficially named the highest luxury-tax tier after him. If there's one person who can beat out the competition with his wallet, it's him. Some believe he might have to in order to convince Ohtani to play in New York.