The Tampa Bay Rays started the season 13-0, 20-3 and 27-6 -- and it looked like they might run away with the American League East. Except, while the Rays were scorching the various bottom dwellers of the major leagues, the Baltimore Orioles were lurking with their own hot start. When the Rays were 27-6, the Orioles were 22-10.
The Rays' biggest lead in the division had been 6½ games, but they lost their first seven games of July and then got swept in Texas last week. That meant the Orioles came to town for four games in a virtual tie for first place -- the first time since Opening Day the Rays weren't in sole possession of first.
This felt like the first really big series of the season, so let's see what we learned as Baltimore took three of four to take a two-game lead over Tampa Bay atop the AL East.
Thursday: Orioles 4, Rays 3 (10 innings)
Standings: Orioles 59-37; Rays 60-40
Key moment: With runners at first and second and two outs in the bottom of the eighth with the game tied, Tampa's Harold Ramirez hits a hard grounder headed into right field for the likely go-ahead RBI. But Orioles second baseman Ramon Urias -- who won a Gold Glove last season at third base -- makes a diving stab and throws him out. The Orioles score in the top of the 10th, and Felix Bautista closes it out with a game-ending double play.
Takeaways: Are the Orioles a surprise? The consensus is, yes, as most preseason prognostications had them around a .500 team -- which, in the tough AL East, meant a possible fifth-place finish. But, despite being fifth in the AL in runs and ninth in ERA, they have the best record in the league. Why? They just win.
This game showed exactly why they're successful in so many of these close games -- at least beyond the dynamic bullpen duo of Bautista and Yennier Cano. In the fourth inning with the Rays up 1-0, Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson slashed a ball off the glove of third baseman Taylor Walls and when left fielder Randy Arozarena lobbed the ball back into Walls -- who wasn't standing near the bag -- Henderson sprinted into third for a super heads-up triple (I guess you can't give a mental error in the official scorebook). Rays manager Kevin Cash decided to play the infield in, a curious decision with no outs and an early lead, and sure enough, it led to a big inning for the Orioles.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with Cash here; Tyler Glasnow had cruised through the first three innings, so I think Cash viewed the probability of a crooked number low enough that it was worth trying to cut off the run. But it also seemed to show a certain lack of faith in his struggling offense that he was trying to protect a 1-0 lead relatively early in the game.
Anyway, Adley Rutschman hit a soft liner just over the head of the pulled-in second baseman, a ball that otherwise would have been an easy out. Two more runs followed, the second one unearned when catcher Francisco Mejia dropped the ball on a tag play at home, and the Orioles had a 3-1 lead.
In the top of the 10th, Orioles manager Brandon Hyde had Adam Frazier sacrifice the zombie runner to third base -- not a move you see much in extra innings, as the visiting team usually looks to play for multiple runs. Of the 34 sacrifice bunts in extra frames this season (through Saturday), only 13 have come from the visitors. Four of those 13 have come from the Orioles, however, and they've scored in all four of those innings and won three of those games -- all three victories in games when Bautista pitched a second scoreless inning of relief, as was the case in this game (they lost a game in April when Bautista didn't pitch).
The small-ball strategy is certainly a testament to Hyde's confidence in Bautista's ability to escape the bottom of the inning without any damage, but it's also out-of-the-box thinking in today's game -- not just the sacrifice, but the willingness to use your closer for two innings. I love it. Of course, after sacrificing the runner to third you still have to execute, and rookie outfielder Colton Cowser hit a sacrifice fly on an 0-2 pitch.
The Orioles are in an interesting position, competing for a division title while also trying to work two recent call-ups into the lineup in Cowser and infielder Jordan Westburg. Cowser, the team's first-round pick in 2021, was hitting .330/.459/.537 in Triple-A. He's hitting .111 through his first 13 games, too small of a sample size to read into, and he hasn't been overmatched, as he has seven walks and eight strikeouts. Westburg has hit .262/.318/.363 through 66 plate appearances, splitting his time between third and second.
Cowser has a job for now with Cedric Mullins out with a groin injury. When Mullins returns -- no timetable there -- Aaron Hicks can move over to right field (while keeping Anthony Santander at DH as much as possible), but Cowser has a chance to earn a spot in the lineup if he hits, especially considering Hicks' production has been a surprise after the New York Yankees let him go (and he's tailed off as of late). With Henderson, Frazier, Urias, Westburg and Jorge Mateo, Hyde has plenty of options for three infield spots. Mateo is the team's best shortstop but the weakest hitter of the five. It's a little odd to see a different infield every game, but the mix-and-match deployment can certainly work, similar to what the San Francisco Giants have done in recent seasons.
No matter how it all shakes out, it appears Cowser and Westburg are going to continue to play key roles down the stretch.
Friday: Rays 3, Orioles 0
Standings: Orioles 59-38; Rays 61-40
Key moment: Isaac Paredes' home run off Kyle Bradish in the sixth gave the Rays a 2-0 lead and a little breathing room, as Zach Eflin pitched seven scoreless innings and Colin Poche and Pete Fairbanks closed it out.
Takeaways: This game was all about Eflin, who allowed just two hits in seven innings, while Poche and Fairbanks each struck out the side as the Rays finished with 14 K's. The Rays gave Eflin the biggest free agent deal in franchise history this past offseason (three years, $40 million), and he's proven to be one of the most astute signings of last offseason. He's 11-5 with a 3.36 ERA, tied for the AL lead in wins and is first among MLB starters in WHIP (by a hair over the Orioles' Tyler Wells).
OK, which starting rotation do you favor moving forward? Certainly, Tampa Bay has the edge over the season:
Rays: 3.64 ERA, 484.1 IP, 26.7% SO rate, 7.0% BB rate, 3.0% HR rate
Orioles: 4.55 ERA, 526.1 IP, 22.3% SO rate, 7.3% BB rate, 3.7% HR rate
The Rays lead the majors in rotation ERA while the Orioles rank 17th. One advantage for the Orioles: Their starters have pitched 42 more innings (while playing four fewer games), which means the Tampa Bay bullpen has been worked a little harder.
The Rays' rotation goes Glasnow, Eflin, McClanahan and Taj Bradley, but the fifth spot has been filled by openers of late, since Drew Rasmussen has joined Jeffrey Springs on the Tommy John list. Bradley, the 22-year-old rookie, should be fine as far as his innings go. But he's been hit lately, with a 6.69 ERA over his past eight starts, and he doesn't go deep into games. McClanahan, meanwhile, has pitched four or fewer innings in three of his past four starts. Remember that he wore down in the second half last season and considering his low pitch limits, the Rays seem to be concerned about his durability. So, they have to not only worry about the fourth and fifth spots, but perhaps a bit about McClanahan, as well. I think they'll look to add a starter at the Aug. 1 trade deadline.
The Orioles' starting rotation is Bradish, Wells, Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer and Grayson Rodriguez, who is back after struggling earlier in the season. Bradish and Wells aren't household names, but Bradish has a 3.05 ERA and Wells is at 3.65 -- he's been homer-prone (23 in 111 innings) but has limited the damage due to a ridiculously low .208 BABIP. Wells is also an extreme fly ball pitcher, but his expected batting average is about 25 points higher than his actual, so we should probably milk in some regression from him down the stretch. Gibson is doing Gibson things, Kremer is another homer-prone starter and Rodriguez is the big unknown factor. If you trade for a starter -- which makes sense -- Rodriguez is probably the odd man out, although the rookie has big upside if he suddenly puts it together.
I give the starting pitching edge to the Rays -- because of Eflin and Glasnow, and despite some reservations about McClanahan's current level -- but I think the teams are closer than the season-long rotation ERAs may suggest. It seems possible that if either picks up a starter at the deadline and that starter pitches well, it could be a difference-maker in the division race.
Saturday: Orioles 6, Rays 5
Standings: Orioles 60-38; Rays 61-41
Key moment: Pinch hitter Ryan O'Hearn breaks a 5-5 tie with one out in the ninth inning with a looper down the right field off of Fairbanks to score Frazier from second base.
Takeaways: Another outstanding game. The Orioles took a 5-0 lead off McClanahan, who struggled with his command, although Arozarena didn't help him when he took a bad route on Mateo's two-run double. The Rays came back with two runs off Rodriguez in the sixth -- Hyde left him in to face Wander Franco with two outs and Franco grounded a two-run single up the middle -- and one in the seventh when Paredes lined an RBI single off Cano, who let an inherited runner score for the second time in the series. In the eighth, the O's turned to Shintaro Fujinami, the hard-throwing but erratic reliever just acquired from the Oakland Athletics, and he walked the first two batters and both came around to score to tie the game. As good as the Orioles' bullpen has been, they don't really have a third dominant reliever. Think of how the Houston Astros rolled out five or six dominant guys last season. I could see the Orioles adding another reliever -- how about David Robertson from the New York Mets?
So Tampa Bay's rally set up O'Hearn's heroics. Not to be too blunt, but O'Hearn may have been the worst player in the majors the past four seasons. He had torn it up in a late-season call-up with the Kansas City Royals in 2018, but from 2019 to 2022, the Royals gave him 901 plate appearances and he hit .211/.282/.351, including .239 with one home run in 134 at-bats in 2022. That's a four-season OPS+ of 70, which isn't good for a backup infielder, let alone a first baseman. The Orioles purchased him from the Royals on Jan. 3, designated him for assignment a couple days later and then sent him to Triple-A Norfolk when no team claimed him. He began the season there, was called up in April and -- well this is baseball, so now he's batting cleanup on the best team in the AL when he starts. He's .313/.358/.528 as the platoon first baseman and he would deliver another big hit Sunday.
Sunday: Orioles 5, Rays 3
Standings: Orioles 61-38; Rays 61-42
Key moment: Left in the game to face lefty Poche, O'Hearn breaks a 3-3 tie in the sixth with a home run down the left-field line that hits off the fair pole. Bautista strikes out Franco with two runners to end it with his third save of the series.
Takeaways: It's easy to focus on the season run differential -- the Rays are plus-144 and the Orioles are just plus-48 -- and conclude the Rays are still the favorites to win the division. Indeed, that's how FanGraphs' playoff odds sees it, giving the Rays a 48.8% chance at the division and the Orioles 34.3%. After watching this series, however, it's certainly a little more difficult to come to that conclusion.
Or maybe this is just a down spell for the Rays. If it is, it's a rough one -- they're now 4-14 in July and hit just .203/.301/.313 in this series. The offense, which just destroyed teams in April, has declined each month:
April: .879 OPS
May: 778 OPS
June: .740 OPS
July: .637 OPS (28th in the majors)
Something else that stood out to me: Henderson versus Franco. Henderson was everywhere in this series, including making a terrific defensive play at third Saturday -- snaring a line drive that he turned into a double play -- and mashing a mammoth 446-foot home run Sunday. Franco, meanwhile, continues to scuffle at the plate (although there's certainly no shame in striking out against Bautista).
Franco was an early MVP candidate when he was hitting .318/.374/.554 through May 11, but he's hit just .235/.304/.361 since then. He's not the only one who has slowed down and we have to remember that he's only 22 years old, but he's not yet a franchise hitter.
Henderson is also 22 -- and he keeps getting better. He's a different hitter than Franco, a three true outcomes guy compared to Franco's more contact-oriented style, but after hitting .189 in April, Henderson has hit .293/.352/.587 since June 1. Franco or Henderson? That's going to be a fun debate in upcoming seasons as the two young infielders become division rivals.
Looking ahead
This series leads us into the trade deadline. Not only do the Orioles and Rays have the two best records in the AL, they also have two of the best farm systems, so it will be fascinating how both teams approach the deadline.
The Orioles are loaded with position player prospects in the upper minors, making them an ideal trade partner for a starting pitcher, but keep in mind the way general manager Mike Elias operated when he was the No. 2 in Houston. The Astros made deadline trades for Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, but those two both had additional years of team control -- and big salaries the Astros were willing to take on. Under that philosophy, the Orioles may not necessarily be looking for a rental starter, but somebody with additional control. And what do you know! Verlander and Max Scherzer both fit that bill, although with $43 million salaries for 2024. Maybe the O's go after a younger pitcher like Seattle's Logan Gilbert, but he would cost a lot of prospect capital and we don't know if Elias is that aggressive.
The Rays, meanwhile, need a starter and maybe a bat to add life to the sputtering offense. Anybody you know who might fit that bill?