As we approach the 2023 MLB trade deadline, the next two weeks will be some of the most intense of the baseball season.
The repercussions are massive. From a fan perspective, your team's behavior at the deadline tells you so much. Is your team in it to win it? If so, how far in? If not, is it rebooting, reloading, rebuilding, resetting, reshuffling or something else entirely?
During the trade season, ESPN colleague David Schoenfield and I are tasked with assigning grades to the majority of the moves. This is done in real time. As soon as a trade goes down, we confirm that it's a thing, then hammer out a response to it as fast as our fingers can type.
Most in-season deals are pretty easy to parse in terms of each team's motivation. Either the team is trying to get better now, or it's trying to improve its long-term outlook or, in some cases, it's trying to do both things at the same time. These motivations serve as baseline criteria for how we grade the deal, while factoring in things like opportunity cost.
Almost all of last season's in-year deals remain a work in progress. That's because it'll take a few years before we know how the prospects in the deals pan out. Yet even a year down the line, we know a lot more about how the deals have worked than we did in the moment.
As we wait for this season's deadline deals to begin, let's revisit some of the swaps from last year. I picked 10 of the biggest deals and set about revising the grades we assigned at the time, while acknowledging that in many cases, even these updates are just the latest snapshots of evolving transactions.
I'll also be looking for some kind of emergent lesson from each move, one that could possibly be instructive for clubs as they wade into the 2023 trade waters.
The trade: The San Diego Padres acquire OF Juan Soto and 1B Josh Bell from the Washington Nationals for LHP MacKenzie Gore, OF Robert Hassell III, SS C.J. Abrams, OF James Wood, RHP Jarlin Susana and 1B/DH Luke Voit.
Initial grades: Padres A+; Nationals B+
Revised grades: Padres C; Nationals A
Dave graded this deal and I did not disagree with his assessment. He left off his analysis with these words: "How can you not love a lineup with Soto, Tatis and Machado?" We wrote similar sentiments this winter, when the Padres added Xander Bogaerts to that fearsome trio. And don't forget, Bell was having an All-Star-level season for the Nationals when this deal happened. Yes, the prospect haul for Washington was considerable, but for a Padres club looking to get over the top, this looked like a deal that would make that happen.
It should have worked. So far it has not. Yes, the Padres made the playoffs. You can argue that would have happened without this deal. Yes, the Padres advanced to the NLCS, but the only round in which Soto or Bell contributed anything positive in terms of win probability added was that championship series round -- which San Diego lost.
After the season, Bell left as a free agent. Soto is still there and is still an on-base machine. But he hasn't been the 1.000 OPS hitter he was in Washington and hasn't signed an extension. And the Padres are one of baseball's most disappointing clubs in 2023. If San Diego doesn't turn around its lackluster first half, the Padres will have to decide over the winter (or even before) whether they want to deal Soto in advance of his free agency after the 2024 campaign. It doesn't help that the prospects Washington received are looking pretty good right now, perhaps better than at the time of the deal. Abrams still has rough edges but his speed-based game has a lot of utility under baseball's revised rules. Gore has been healthy, which is the most important step for him, and he's been electric at times. His consistency isn't there yet but any team would love to have him. Abrams and Gore are two big reasons the Nationals have been more competitive this season than expected, low as that bar may be.
And down in the minors, the stature of Wood has only grown, to the point where he is now one of baseball's top prospects. Hassell, on the other hand, is having a rough season in Triple-A. He's still only 21, so there is plenty of time for that to turn around. Also, don't forget about Susana. He is very young and very inconsistent but he's hit 103 mph with his fastball.
Moral of the story: Sometimes the process is good but baseball will happen. Teams seeking a deal for Shohei Ohtani over the next two weeks might bear that in mind, though there is an obvious difference. Mainly: Soto was not having a great season (for him) when the Padres made this deal and he's continued along at that level of production. Ohtani, on the other hand, is having one of the greatest seasons in baseball history.
The trade: The San Diego Padres acquire LHP Josh Hader from the Milwaukee Brewers for LHP Taylor Rogers, RHP Dinelson Lamet, LHP Robert Gasser and IF/OF Esteury Ruiz.
Initial grades: Brewers C+; Padres A
Revised grades: Brewers D+; Padres A
Let's start with the Padres here. Initially, it looked like San Diego was cursed, because during his first month for the team, Hader looked like a pre-Crash Davis version of Nuke LaLoosh. Thankfully, Hader's yips disappeared as quickly as they appeared and he's gone right back to being what the Padres wanted him to be: a shut-down, top-of-the-line ninth-inning hammer. Hader will be a free agent this winter and if the Padres don't right their ship very soon, he could end up back on the trade market. That's not his fault.
I didn't like the deal for the Brewers at the time, and with the benefit of hindsight, I think even they'd agree it looks even worse. Rogers wasn't a factor for them and now is in San Francisco. Lamet, who I thought the Brewers might have seen as a reclamation candidate, was let go almost immediately after the trade. And Ruiz was redirected to Oakland over the winter as part of the three-team swap that landed William Contreras in Milwaukee. That part of the deal has worked out well -- otherwise, I might regrade it as an F.
Simply put, the loss of Hader seemed to have an outsized impact on the Brewers' clubhouse. At the time, the Brewers were 12 games over .500 and had been leading the NL Central for more than a month. They were two under the rest of the way and missed the postseason.
Moral of the story: Clubhouse morale matters, and trading a key free agent-to-be when you have a real chance to win might not play as well in the locker room as it does on the spreadsheet.
The trade: The St. Louis Cardinals acquire LHP Jordan Montgomery from the New York Yankees for CF Harrison Bader.
Initial grades: Cardinals B+; Yankees C
Revised grades: Cardinals B+; Yankees B
I still don't have any issue with the Cardinals here. Montgomery has been excellent for them -- better than he was for the Yankees. Losing Bader hurt but the Cardinals are deep in outfielders -- not necessarily center-field gloves, but still -- yet St. Louis needed rotation help badly and Montgomery turned out to be just what they needed. With St. Louis barely clinging to playoff hopes this time around, and Montgomery's free agency looming, they still need something longer term. Sign him or trade him.
Bader has been a perfect fit for the Yankees, at least when he's been healthy. His elite glove was never in doubt and the Yankees needed that. Bader has also been a factor at the plate and is a legitimate offensive option against southpaws. The rule changes could also give Bader an extra boost in terms of stolen-base production, if he can just stay on the field. There have been rumors the Yankees could ink Bader to an extension, but it hasn't happened yet.
Moral of the story: Sometimes a quality for quality swap is the rising tide that lifts both boats. It's nice when that happens. Still, the final tally for this deal is very much up in the air. Will Monty be traded again? Will the Yankees extend Bader? We shall see.
The trade: The Philadelphia Phillies acquire RHP David Robertson from the Chicago Cubs for RHP Ben Brown, and OF Brandon Marsh from the Los Angeles Angels for C Logan O'Hoppe.
Initial grades: Phillies B+; Cubs B-; Angels C+
Revised grades: Phillies A-; Cubs B; Angels B
The Phillies did a nice bit of two-stepping in these deals, which we graded together. In dealing O'Hoppe for Marsh -- one young player for another -- they turned organizational surplus into Marsh, who was instrumental in Philly's World Series run and is now a center-field fixture. Robertson pitched well enough during his second Philadelphia stint, but he struggled with health late in the season and into October.
In a way, this might have helped Philly during the postseason, as Robertson's troubles forced Rob Thomson to maximize his creativity in terms of bullpen use and he did a great job of riding the hot hand to finish games. Robertson didn't pitch in the NLDS, didn't do much to help in the NLCS, but threw four scoreless innings and picked up a save in the World Series. Now he's with the Mets, where he's been enjoying an All-Star-caliber campaign.
Still, Robertson had thrown just 18⅔ big league innings over the three-year stretch from 2019 to 2021. In retrospect, the Phillies might have flagged him as a candidate for late-season fatigue and looked elsewhere for bullpen help. Nevertheless, since we graded Philly on the basis of these two trades together, I'm upping their mark simply because landing a talented young everyday center fielder like Marsh in the midst of a postseason push is a really nice bit of maneuvering.
I'm upping the Cubs a tick as well. Brown has climbed to Triple-A as a starter while maintaining his sky-high strikeout rates. His command/consistency is a work in progress and a couple of rough recent outings have marred his ERA. Still, he very much looks like a quality future rotation option for the Cubs.
Finally, O'Hoppe seems to be the long-term answer for the Angels behind the plate. His 2023 was shortened to just 16 games because of a bad-luck injury (he tore the labrum in his non-throwing shoulder on a swing), but he appeared to be on his way to a Rookie of the Year push when he went down. At the time of these trades, I was down a bit on the Halos for not helping Marsh turn the corner as he has in Philly. But O'Hoppe redeems the swap.
Moral of the story: If anything, it's a gentle reminder that with relievers, it's buyer beware, even when you're dealing with a veteran like Robertson. So often, deadline deals for such pitchers don't pan out because teams are trading for them at a performance apex and there is nowhere for them to go but down. For the vast majority of relievers, it's a roller coaster ride, and you don't want to grab one when he's about to go into a plunge.
The trade: The Minnesota Twins acquired RHP Tyler Mahle from the Cincinnati Reds for IF Spencer Steer, 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand and LHP Steve Hajjar.
Initial grades: Twins A-; Reds C
Revised grades: Twins F; Reds A
To be sure, this is a harsh revision. The joy of hindsight is we can make our judgments based on what's already happened, even if those results are a product of bad luck. For the Twins, this is a double whammy, as they got bad luck (Mahle's injuries) and now appear to have overpaid in giving up two everyday-quality young players in Steer and Encarnacion-Strand.
When the deal was made, the Twins were leading the AL Central but their rotation was ailing and there was little indication that they were about to put a stranglehold on the division. Meanwhile, while Mahle was a popular name on the rumor mill, he had only recently come off the IL, where he had been dealing with shoulder inflammation.
The shoulder problems continued and Minnesota got just 16⅓ innings from Mahle before shutting him down. Still, they had him under team control for 2023, which is a big reason why they paid such a high prospect price in the deal. Alas, after Mahle pitched very well over five starts to begin the 2023 campaign, he turned up with an elbow injury that led to season-ending Tommy John surgery. A bad outcome for the Twins and especially for Mahle, who will be rehabbing the injury as he hits free agency this winter.
Perhaps, with hindsight, we can say the Twins should have seen Mahle's arm issues as more of a red flag than they did. But, also with hindsight, we can say for sure the production they got over 42 innings from Mahle is going to be dwarfed by what the Reds are going to get from their return in this deal.
Basically, that return has been three position player semiregulars who have been/are going to aid the Reds' push for a surprise playoff spot. The Reds' rookie brigade has made them one of the most fun teams in the majors and this deal has been a major part of that dynamic.
Steer has been a lineup fixture all season and has been at times a fringe figure in the NL Rookie of the Year race. As the Reds have continued to promote from within, Steer has morphed into a kind of corner position utility player, getting reps at first, third and left field. Through it all, he's posted a 117 OPS+, hitting .272 with 14 homers, an excellent .360 OBP and 51 RBIs in 93 games.
Encarnacion-Strand already owns a big league record: At 27 characters, he has the longest name in MLB history. After posting a .331/.405/.637 line in Triple-A to start the season, he forced his way up to Cincinnati. He's only three games into his big league career but he already poked a clutch three-run homer during the Reds' wild 11-10 loss to the Giants on Wednesday.
As for Hajjar, he's helped, too. The Reds traded him to Cleveland during spring training as the player to be named in the deal that brought Will Benson to Cincinnati. The long, lean, fast Benson started slow but has come on like gangbusters as a central figure in the Reds' recent rise. Over his past 28 games, Benson has hit .347/.462/.680 with five homers and five stolen bases.
Incidentally, the Twins are pretty much replicating their 2022 season in that they have struggled to take advantage of a weak division and their ability to win it remains very much in the balance as the 2023 deadline approaches. The main problem has been the offense. Some of that is injury related and perhaps the problem would not be so acute if they still had Steer and Encarnacion-Strand in hand.
Ah, hindsight.
Moral of the story: If you're dealing with a recently injured pitcher, you better be darn sure you like what you see on the medicals. That's especially true when you're dealing two players on the cusp of becoming big league regulars.
The trade: The Minnesota Twins acquire RHP Jorge Lopez from the Baltimore Orioles for LHP Cade Povich, RHP Yennier Cano, LHP Juan Rojas and RHP Juan Nunez.
Initial grades: Twins A-; Orioles F-
Revised grades: Orioles A+; Twins F
First, that ghastly effort at grading -- my work, not Dave's -- ought to be explained. No, I'm not going to beat myself up over not realizing what the Orioles had done when they acquired Cano, who has been arguably the best reliever in the American League this season. No one really saw that one coming. But I was probably too hard on the Orioles at the time because, to be frank, I was angry with them.
It wasn't personal, but Baltimore was a factor in the AL wild-card race after years of some pretty intense losing and it just did not sit well with me that they were subtracting at the deadline. Remember, Baltimore didn't just trade Lopez but also franchise stalwart Trey Mancini. I hate it -- hate it -- when contending teams offload key contributors at the deadline. Perhaps that's not very analytical, but I'm a fan, too.
Obviously, this deal has completely flipped during the past year. Cano, at 28, has been what I've called him a couple of times: a relief pitching version of Roy Hobbs. None of the other pitchers Baltimore got in the deal have climbed above Double-A, and Povich, a lefty starter, might be stalled out at that level. Still, taking Lopez's half-season as a breakout closer and turning him into Cano, who could be a major reason the Orioles return to playoff baseball, is about as good as a front office can do.
It doesn't help the Twins' case that even though there was evidence in Lopez's underlying metrics that his relief ascendancy was real, he simply has not pitched well for them. Over 55 innings for the Twins, Lopez has posted a 4.58 ERA. Pitching, relief or otherwise, has not been the issue for Minnesota in 2023 and perhaps the Twins were never going to identify the tweaks to Cano's game that the Orioles did. But, man, does this deal look lopsided after the fact.
Moral of the story: Relievers, am I right? OK, to go a little deeper. ... Yes, the "how they are throwing right now" factor with relievers is important. Perhaps that is a dynamic that is easier to read for teams when it comes to hurlers with which they are familiar. Otherwise, when you're talking about a veteran like Lopez, maybe you want to see a little bit longer track record of success.
The trade: The New York Yankees acquire RHPs Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino from the Oakland Athletics for LHP Ken Waldichuk, RHP Luis Medina, LHP JP Sears and INF Cooper Bowman.
Initial grades: Yankees A-; Athletics B-
Revised grades: Yankees D; Athletics A-
Since the deal, the Yankees have gotten eight starts, a 1-3 record and a 6.35 ERA from Montas. Ouch. All of that came after the trade last season. He has not pitched for the Bombers in 2023 as he tries to work his way back from arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder. Meanwhile, Trivino pitched great for the Yankees last season, playoffs included, but got hurt in spring training and underwent Tommy John surgery.
Meanwhile, Sears, Waldichuk and Medina are all contributing members of Oakland's current rotation. That may be damning them with faint praise, as the Athletics are one of the worst teams in recent baseball history. Still, Sears has pitched pretty well and Medina has had his moments, including a scoreless outing against the Red Sox on Tuesday.
Is this a case of bad luck? Well, similar to Mahle's situation, Montas had only recently spent time on the IL with a shoulder problem before the trade. That concern was mentioned in the analysis at the time. However, that concern now looks like it should have been a big, beeping red strobe light shooing the Yankees away.
Moral of the story: Be damn sure about your medicals, obviously. Even then, unfortunately, stuff like this is going to happen. However, maybe push pitchers with a track record for durability a little higher up in your assessment. Still, this is a deal whose grades are subject to further evolution as the years pass.
The trade: The New York Yankees acquire LF Andrew Benintendi from the Kansas City Royals for pitching prospects T.J. Sikkema, Chandler Champlain and Beck Way.
Initial grades: Yankees B+; Royals B
Revised grades: Yankees C+; Royals C+
Look, trading for Benintendi was a good idea for the Yankees. It just didn't work out. He didn't hit that well for them, then suffered what ended up being a season-ending hamate injury and didn't appear in the postseason. Now he's with the White Sox. That's bad luck but what happened is what happened, so we ding the Yankees a bit for that. However, thus far, the pitching prospects they sent to Kansas City haven't shown a whole lot of evidence the Yankees will miss them.
Moral of the story: You can acquire the right player for the right role and it still might not work out. What are you going to do?
The trade: The New York Yankees acquire RHP Scott Effross from the Chicago Cubs for RHP Hayden Wesneski.
Initial grades: Yankees B+; Cubs B-
Revised grades: Yankees C; Cubs B
Injury problems have been one of the defining traits of the recent versions of the Yankees. Effross pitched decently for them last season after the trade. Then he had Tommy John surgery. Maybe it's the pinstripes. Meanwhile, Wesneski, despite this season's longball woes, has looked like a long-term rotation solution for the Cubs and would represent some welcome depth to the current Bombers.
Moral of the story: None really. Teams will continue to trade nonelite pitching prospects for leverage-quality relievers to bolster their bullpens for postseason pushes. We also don't know what's going to happen from here. Maybe Wesneski flames out and Effross returns as a key complementary reliever for New York with his side-slinging style.
The trade: The Seattle Mariners acquire RHP Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds for SS Noelvi Marte, SS Edwin Arroyo, RHP Levi Stoudt and RHP Andrew Moore.
Initial grades: Mariners C; Reds A
Revised grades: Mariners A, Reds B-
Sorry Dave, but I'm reversing your grades on this one. Castillo has been the ace the Mariners acquired him to be. And this turned out to be a long-term partnership after Castillo inked a five-year, $108 million extension. That is a lot of acquired value, even considering the prospect group Seattle sent to the Reds.
The reasoning for the original grades was sound: Marte, Arroyo and Stout represented a steep price, especially for 1⅓ seasons of one pitcher, which is what Castillo's tenure for the M's would have been without the extension. So far, though, the kids haven't exactly taken off for the Reds. Arroyo is very young and is yet to hit Double-A, but his offensive numbers are soft. Stout pitched in the majors this season for Cincinnati but across two levels in 2023, he's walked more batters than he's struck out.
Marte, the biggest prospect name in the swap, has been decent but the Reds have promoted so many position players this season there hardly seems to be a need for him in Cincinnati. That's a snapshot observation of course -- that outlook can change fast, and it will if Marte continues to progress.
Still, for all the good dealing the Reds have done in building their exciting new club, perhaps this is the one deal they might undo, if only because of its impact on the 2023 playoff race.
Moral of the story: Know your timeline. This isn't a criticism of the Reds here. What's happened with them this season, given how much impact they've gotten from rookies, is special and not necessarily the kind of thing you can plan for. That said, if -- hypothetically -- they knew this was going to happen and they knew they had Castillo under team control for 2023, maybe this trade would not have been made.