MLB trade season is a wrap!
From the early deals that got things moving to the flurry of deadline-day activity on Tuesday, this is your one-stop shop for grades and analysis breaking down the details for baseball's biggest trades as they went down.
Our experts evaluated and graded each move, with the most recent grades at the top.
Jump to:
Deadline day deals | Candelario to CHC | Canha to MIL
Sewald to ARI | Civale to TB | Cron to LAA | Lopez to ATL
Earlier trades
O's add to rotation, get Flaherty from Cards
Orioles get:
RHP Jack Flaherty
Cardinals get:
IF Cesar Prieto
LHP Drew Rom
RHP Zack Showalter
Orioles grade: A-
The Orioles needed to add a starting pitcher, especially after sending down the suddenly struggling Tyler Wells the other day, and Flaherty is a personal pick to click among all the starters traded at the deadline. His stat line with the Cardinals doesn't impress with a 4.43 ERA, but he's allowed a .346 batting average on balls in play -- worst in the majors among pitchers with at least 80 innings. Maybe that's an indictment on Flaherty, but most likely it's a combination of bad luck and bad Cardinals defense. After an especially rough start, Flaherty has a 3.45 ERA over his past 12 starts, including four scoreless outings. When he's on, he's tough, and you have to like what the Orioles have done with pitchers with less pure stuff than Flaherty. I think we could look back on this trade as one of the best of the deadline.
Cardinals grade: C
Prieto is kind of unknown as a prospect since the Orioles are so loaded with infielders, but he's hitting .349/.393/.475 between Double-A and Triple-A. He's got exceptional bat-to-ball skills with a 7.4% strikeout rate, but also doesn't walk much and doesn't have much power. He does hit left-handed, which is a nice positive, but probably projects as a utility player, potentially a good one, and potentially a little better than that thanks to his contact ability. Rom has been hit hard in Triple-A, with 100 hits and 46 walks in 86 innings and is what you might describe as a crafty lefty. Those are pretty rough numbers, but the Cardinals are simply collecting starting pitching prospects who are close to the majors to give them as much potential depth as possible for next year -- and hope a couple of them click. Showalter - not related to the Mets manager - was an 11th-round pick last year out of a Florida high school. He has 30 pro innings under his belt. He was a two-way player in high school and a good athlete hitting up to 94, but he has some good early numbers and looks like the kind of low-level flyer you take as a throw-in in these types of deals. -- David Schoenfield
D-backs get Pham as Mets keep on dealing
Diamondbacks get:
OF Tommy Pham
Mets get:
SS Jeremy Rodriguez
Diamondbacks grade: B
The Diamondbacks added closer Paul Sewald on Monday, and they get another under-the-radar pickup in Pham, who should help fix some of their problems against left-handed pitching. Arizona had a .763 OPS against righties (seventh in the majors) but just .718 against lefties (19th in the majors). Pham has hit .255/.339/.532 against lefties and .277/.355/.431 against righties, so he's good enough to play every day, although the Diamondbacks will mostly use him against southpaws, pushing Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy to the bench. As always, Pham brings elite plate discipline (94th percentile chase rate) and plus exit velocity (79th percentile hard-hit rate). He's a subpar outfielder, so the Diamondbacks will lose something defensively, whether it's Pham or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in left field. I like the pickup as it adds balance to the lineup, although the Diamondbacks did give up a teenage shortstop who could come back to haunt them.
Mets grade: B
Rodriguez is a 17-year-old shortstop who has yet to come to the States, hitting .256/.371/.393 in the Dominican Summer League, where the stat line means very little. He is one of the youngest players in the league, however, starting the season at 16 years old, and was a reasonably high-profile amateur, signing for $1.2 million. The odds are slim, but you never know -- and it makes sense for the Mets to take a chance on a prospect like this given some of the other closer-to-the-majors deals they've made in the Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander trades. -- Schoenfield
Fish reel in Burger from Chicago
Marlins get:
3B Jake Burger
White Sox get:
LHP Jake Eder
Marlins grade: C-
I'm happy to see the Marlins trying to improve the offense and get to the postseason in a non-COVID season for the first time since 2003, and Jean Segura has been a sinkhole at third base. Still, Burger is only a marginal upgrade and they gave up a pretty good prospect to get him. Burger has compiled the quietest 25-homer season of 2023, but it comes with a .279 OBP, and since June 1, he's hit .173/.253/.470. He's Joey Gallo except without the walks, making him kind of a two-true-outcomes kind of hitter. Segura has been so bad, however, that even that line would be a slight improvement. Burger does come with years of team control, but the all-or-nothing approach probably means he's not a long-term answer at third.
White Sox grade: A-
For the White Sox, even if Eder doesn't pan out, it's a tremendous roll of the dice. The 24-year-old lefty was having a breakout in 2021 at Double-A, emerging as one of the top pitching prospects in the minors, when he underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of last season. He didn't return to the mound until June of this year and he has a 4.12 ERA in nine starts, still showing strikeout stuff with 48 strikeouts in 39⅓ innings. Pre-surgery, the former Vanderbilt pitcher was throwing 93-96 and touching 98 with good ride up in the zone, plus a tight, wipeout slider. His fastball isn't quite back at that level and he's been a little wild, but if he gets back to where he was, the White Sox will have a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. -- Schoenfield
Phillies land All-Star Lorenzen in trade with Tigers
Phillies get:
RHP Michael Lorenzen
Tigers get:
IF Hao-Yu Lee
Phillies grade: B-
It wouldn't be a trade deadline if Dave Dombrowski didn't acquire a veteran or two. In this instance, adding Michael Lorenzen to an already strong and deep Phillies rotation doesn't feel like the most necessary thing in the world. But Lorenzen is a good pitcher and at the very least adds depth for a team in a tight battle for a postseason slot. And as we saw last season, all the Phillies need is a slot.
The Phillies' rotation has been really good. Through Monday, the Phils ranked second in the NL in rotation bWAR and seventh in both quality start percentage and average game score. They've been rolling out Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez. They've all been between solid and terrific. With the possible exception of Suarez, they've all got positive recent trendlines.
So why do the deal? Because it's Dave Dombrowski. Well, digging deeper, you can't really have too many starting pitchers. Perhaps he wants manager Rob Thomson to go to a six-man rotation. Maybe he likes Sanchez in a multi-inning relief role. Maybe it's Lorenzen whom he likes in a relief role, especially for October. Lorenzen has years of leveraged relief experience. There are options.
Still, Lorenzen is a free agent after the season and is not much of a going-forward upgrade from any of the Phillies' current starters. If the Phillies' staff is healthy when we hit October, Lorenzen seems likely to pitch out of the bullpen and if he's on board with the change of role, the Phillies definitely have a need in that area.
An obvious move? No, and Lee is a 45 FV prospect, per Kiley McDaniel's preseason ratings, so the deal is iffy from a future value perspective. But this is Dombrowski and by now, we ought to know to give his deadline moves the benefit of the doubt.
Tigers grade: A-
With Lorenzen in a walk year and the Tigers deep in young pitching, it would not have made sense for Detroit to hang on to him for the next two months. But getting a player with the prospect profile of Lee is a pretty nifty turn of events for the Bengals.
As mentioned, Lee is a 45 FV prospect, whom McDaniel ranked fifth in the Philly system back in the spring. He's a 20-year-old infielder, second/third base mostly, who has shown decent on-base skills, a bit of pop and some speed on the bases. McDaniel writes, "He's a well-balanced offensive threat and may settle with above-average bat control, pitch selection, raw power and in-game power."
Lee is the kind of prospect Dombrowski doesn't think twice about trading -- as Detroit fans well know -- but he's a nice get for the Tigers, who were already pretty deep in 45-plus FV prospects. -- Bradford Doolittle
Justin Verlander is back in Houston! Grading the Astros-Mets blockbuster
Astros get:
RHP Justin Verlander
Mets get:
OF Drew Gilbert
OF Ryan Clifford
Another future Hall of Famer has left Queens for the AL West ahead of the MLB trade deadline. Read full analysis of the Verlander trade here
Padres pick up veteran left-hander Hill from Bucs
Padres get:
LHP Rich Hill
1B Ji Man Choi
Pirates get:
1B Alfonso Rivas
LHP Jackson Wolf
OF Estuar Suero
Padres grade: B-
Inspired by the loss Monday night to the 42-62 Colorado Rockies, the Padres once again manifest the kind of unfocused aggression that has marked the A.J. Preller era. Admittedly, this go-for-it mentality has paid off at times and is always fun to watch.
The Padres entered deadline day 10th in the NL standings, five games out of the third wild-card spot. That race is close and crowded: Five teams are currently within one game of a wild-card slot, and the Cubs are 3½ back. However, the underachieving Padres have the best on-paper roster of any of those teams. As a result, while San Diego's playoff chances at this point are below break-even, they aren't outlandish, likely landing somewhere in the 45% range after this trade.
The deal addresses a couple of problem spots for San Diego. The Padres rank 29th in bWAR from DHs. Their plan to split the position between veterans Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz has long fallen flat on its proverbial face. San Diego has also gotten subpar offensive production from primary first baseman Jake Cronenworth, but he's a contributor to the Padres' top-five team defense and his numbers have been edging up ever so slightly.
In a market light on premium bats, Choi isn't the worst option to hold down the heavy half of a DH platoon. He's been injured for much of this season but has at least slugged well during the time he has been on the field. Carpenter's inability to fill this specific role has led to Bob Melvin using the DH slot to rest players in recent weeks, but now that we're in the stretch run, having a steady option in that spot isn't a bad idea.
As for Hill, look, his track record is long and accomplished. He has scads of experience in high-stakes games, in the playoffs and in pennant chases. He's one of the most respected players in the majors and will be a seamless fit in the clubhouse.
He's also the oldest player in the major leagues and has produced at a level about a half of a standard deviation below a league-average hurler. Having the San Diego defense behind him should help, but there is no guarantee he will be an upgrade from San Diego's current options. It's worth a shot.
Pirates grade: B
The Pirates' rebuild has started to come into focus, though clearly there is work left to do. Over the winter, their strategy was to add a few respected veterans on one-year deals like Carlos Santana, Hill, Choi and Andrew McCutchen. Early on, it looked like that approach was going to have a shocking payoff, as the Bucs led the NL Central for much of the opening two months.
Reality set in soon enough. While the Pirates' offseason approach wasn't that novel, their execution was admirable. Their young players got a chance to experience some success and spend time with the veterans. And now that their playoff hopes have evaporated and the team looks to take another step in 2024, it was time to bid adieu to the short-term vets. Many of them played well enough to hold real value in the deadline market, and thus Santana, Hill and Choi have moved on and the Pirates have a few more prospects to deepen the lower levels of their system.
Rivas is a Quadruple-A type whom the Padres clearly didn't see as an answer for the role they acquired Choi to fill. Wolf, 24, is a Double-A lefty who made his MLB debut this season. Suero, 17, is an outfielder from the Dominican Republic and, well, who knows? Kiley McDaniel assigned both prospects a 35+ FV before the season.
All in all, this was a good bit of maneuvering for a team that hopefully won't be on this veterans-for-prospects merry-go-round forever. -- Doolittle
Jays add DeJong to infield in deal with Cards
Blue Jays get:
SS Paul DeJong
Cardinals get:
RHP Matt Svanson
Blue Jays grade: A
I'm giving the Jays a high grade here not because DeJong is Honus Wagner or Cal Ripken Jr., but for quickly reacting after Bo Bichette left Monday's game with a knee injury when he rounded first base after a potential double, jammed on the brakes and then limped off the field. Bichette had started all but four of the Blue Jays' games at shortstop and since backup Santiago Espinal is also a platoon starter at second base against lefties, the Blue Jays needed insurance for Bichette in case he misses significant time.
DeJong is a solid defender and should be a noticeable upgrade over Bichette -- DeJong ranks in the 97th percentile in Statcast's outs above average compared to the sixth percentile for Bichette. Obviously, he's not the same hitter as Bichette, who leads the AL with a .321 average and 144 hits, but at least DeJong has bounced back at the plate to hit .233/.297/.412 after two miserable seasons. DeJong might end up playing a minor role if Bichette's injury isn't serious, but the Jays couldn't afford to head into the final two months without a healthy shortstop as they battle for a wild card.
Cardinals grade: C
Yes, that spelling is correct -- Svanson with a "v." A 13th-round pick out of Lehigh in 2021, the right-hander has transitioned full time to the bullpen this season and crushed Class A with a 1.11 ERA in 32⅓ innings. Baseball America didn't have Svanson in the top 30 Blue Jays prospects in its midseason update. The Cardinals like Svanson enough to assign him to Double-A where we'll find out if he's a legitimate prospect. But maybe the exciting aspect about this deal for the Cardinals is the potential call-up of Masyn Winn, the 21-year-old shortstop with the rocket of an arm who is hitting .284/.356/.467 with 16 home runs at Triple-A Memphis. I think it makes sense for the Cardinals to start his big league clock and give him experience now, as he likely takes over in 2024 as the starting shortstop. -- Schoenfield
Cubs add Candelario in deal with Nationals
Cubs get:
3B/1B Jeimer Candelario
Nationals get:
IF Kevin Made
LHP DJ Herz
Cubs grade: B+
Candelario may have been the most in-demand player this trade deadline considering Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said on Sunday that he was discussing a trade with eight teams. Candelario returns to his original organization where he played 16 games before he was traded to the Detroit Tigers in 2017. For the Cubs, it's a late twist to their season -- two weeks ago they looked like they'd be trading away players, but the recent eight-game winning streak turned their fortunes around. The switch-hitting Candelario has slashed a solid .258/.342/.481 with 48 extra-base hits, so he could slot in the middle of the Cubs' order. Given the Cubs are ninth in the NL in home runs and 13th in doubles, Canderlario should give them a little more pop.
It will be interesting to see where he plays. He's played third base for the Nationals but has played some first in the past, and he could slot at either position for the Cubs. In the past week, Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom and Miles Mastrobuoni all started at third and Cody Bellinger has alternated between first and center field, with Trey Mancini playing first base against lefties. Candelario could also DH, depending on what you do with Christopher Morel. These are good problems to have, although I would guess that Mancini and Madrigal are probably the ones to lose some playing time with Candelario slotting in somewhere on an everyday basis. It's a nice pickup for the Cubs without giving up one of their top prospects.
Nationals grade: C+
Made is the bigger name here. Despite being one of the Cubs' top international signings in 2019 and receiving a $1.5 million bonus, he just hasn't hit much in the minors -- he has a .241/.328/.355 line this year while repeating High-A. He makes enough contact but doesn't drive the ball, although scouts believe he can turn into a 15-homer guy. He's still very young for his league (20 years old), so don't write off the bat just yet. He has the glove and arm strength to stay at shortstop, though it's hard to see him being anything beyond a utility player right now.
Herz is a lefty with a crossfire delivery, a good changeup and a good strikeout rate. He has a 3.97 ERA in Double-A, however, and command issues (37 walks in 59 innings) probably mean he's headed to the bullpen. The return is about what you would expect for a rental non-star player. You can see some potential upside in both prospects, but neither player looks like a future impact performer. -- Schoenfield
Mets continue sale, deal Canha to Brewers
Brewers get:
OF Mark Canha
Mets get:
RHP Justin Jarvis
Brewers grade: B-
Canha is a minor upgrade for the Brewers' low-octane offense, which is more or less similar to the dynamic capture by their acquisition of Carlos Santana. Whether you want to read that as a statement about the Brewers' pre-deadline offense is up to you. But the fact of the matter is that big bats just don't seem to be available at this deadline, and if marginal upgrades are what the Brewers can get, then they should get them.
At this point of his career, Canha is a walking embodiment of the term "proven veteran." Like Santana, he should get plenty of run in Milwaukee and will likely even slot somewhere in the middle of an order that has struggled at every spot not held down by Christian Yelich.
Despite all of that, the Brewers are adding at the deadline because they're in a neck-and-neck, three-way tussle with the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs (all of a sudden) for the top spot in the NL Central. And they've done that with some of the best run prevention in the majors. For a club like this, a little additional offense can go a long way, especially when Canha can been integrated in a way that doesn't mess with Milwaukee's elite defense.
Canha figures to mostly DH for the Brewers, while possibly logging some time at first base and perhaps in the outfield against the occasional lefty in place of lefty-swinging rookie Sal Frelick. (Or maybe not -- Canha has not hit lefties this season). His 102 OPS+ isn't eye-popping but as it was, manager Craig Counsell couldn't field a lineup of league-average hitters. Every little bit helps.
Mets grade: C+
Canha was solid but unspectacular for the Mets, which is what they should have expected. His 123 OPS+, 2.5 bWAR season in 2022 was a key component of the Mets' run to the postseason. He was likely going to be bought out after the season, so with the Mets out of the chase, getting something for him now makes sense.
Justin Jarvis is just a guy, as far as I can tell. He was promoted to Triple-A in early July and has been roughed up in three outings since then. He's a righty with a four-seam fastball that runs 93-94 mph and touches 96 with unspectacular spin rates. He also mixes in a slider and curveball with what looks like a pretty over-the-top delivery.
Jarvis was not listed in Kiley McDaniel's preseason write-up of Brewers' prospects. The Mets went for young, wild-card-type prospects when they sent David Robertson to the Miami Marlins, an approach I liked. I would have been more excited if they'd followed a similar approach with Canha, but the Mets have added to their upper-level organizational depth. Jarvis, should he find his footing at the Triple-A level, should make his MLB debut sooner rather than later. -- Doolittle
Seattle ships closer Sewald to D-backs for three hitters
Diamondbacks get:
RHP Paul Sewald
Mariners get:
IF Josh Rojas, OF Dominic Canzone, IF Ryan Bliss
Diamondbacks grade: B
The Diamondbacks have lost seven games in the NL West standings this month -- once up by three games on July 2, they now trail the Dodgers by four games -- so they made their first move at the deadline to help shore up their late-game relief and attempt to stop their playoff chances from sliding even further. It's been closer-by-committee most of the season as Scott McGough, Andrew Chafin and Miguel Castro all have at least seven saves -- and each has an ERA over 4.00, not exactly what you want from your late-game relievers. Kevin Ginkel, who was sent down to Triple-A in June, has three of the team's last four saves, which says the Diamondbacks haven't done a great job of evaluating the relievers they do have if a guy can go from "not one of our eight best relievers" to closer in a span of three weeks. Overall, Arizona's bullpen ranks 22nd in the majors in win probability added.
Sewald, who is under team control through 2024, has been one of the more unheralded relievers over the past three seasons with a 2.88 ERA, .170 batting average allowed and 52 saves. He's 21-for-24 in save chances this season with a 2.93 ERA, living and dying with a big, sweeping slider since his fastball averages 92 mph. He makes it work, throwing the four-seamer up in the zone, which generates more swing and miss than you would expect because it plays so well off the sweeper. He's not a big name and is a little vulnerable to the home run (five so far in 2023 after allowing 10 each of the past two seasons), but he's been reliable for the Mariners. He's not generally thought of as an elite closer but few have been better or more consistent in recent seasons. The home runs are a slight concern so he's better starting a clean inning but he should take over as closer and allow Torey Lovullo to better utilize the lefty Chafin in big moments in the seventh and eighth innings. With few top relievers left on the market -- maybe the Pirates trade David Bednar -- the Diamondbacks didn't get Sewald on the cheap, however, surrendering two players on their major league roster and an interesting prospect.
Mariners grade: C
This isn't going to go over well in Seattle -- with the fans or the players -- as it reeks of the Kendall Graveman trade from 2021 when the Mariners traded their then red-hot closer to the Astros while chasing a playoff spot. The players were vocally upset about that trade at the time so it will be interesting to see the reaction this time. Jerry's Dipoto's thinking is understandable, however, in the same division: The Rangers just added Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery and the Angels made several big moves as well and the reliever market was a seller's market. The Mariners are only 4.5 games out of the final wild card but have to jump over the Angels, Yankees, Red Sox and Astros or Blue Jays to get in. Not impossible, but FanGraphs puts their playoff odds at 16.7%. Plus, hard-throwing Andres Munoz is certainly capable of replacing Sewald and Matt Brash (76 K's in 43.1 IP) is a another power arm, although both have to show a little more moxie (both have a negative win probability added in 2023). The Seattle pen has been pretty reliable, but the depth will be tested and I can envision a final two months where the pen implodes.
Dipoto loves making these kinds of deals for what I'll call "25th man on the roster" types. Those guys are nice if they turn into Ty France, but more often they end up being Abraham Toro or Taylor Trammell or Shed Long. Rojas was decent with Arizona in 2021 and 2022, accumulating 4.0 bWAR over the two seasons, but he's hit .228/.292/.296 with no home runs in 189 at-bats. Maybe he replaces Kolten Wong, who has somehow been even worse, on the roster.
Canzone debuted earlier this month after putting up gaudy numbers at Triple-A Reno: .354/.431/.634 with 16 home runs and nearly as many walks (39) as strikeouts (40). Impressive, but Reno is Coors Field-plus and we've seen Diamondbacks prospects who tore it up there struggle in the majors. He does bat left-handed, something the Mariners need, and it will be interesting to see if the Mariners will now trade away Teoscar Hernandez. Bliss was a second-round pick in 2021 out of Auburn, a second baseman who hit .358 at Double-A Amarillo before a recent move to Triple-A. Amarillo is another good place to hit, but Bliss is certainly interesting and could conceivably get a chance at the second-base job next season, a position Seattle has struggled to fill for years. It's a classic quantity-for-quality trade, but I'll take the quality side of things. -- Schoenfield
Rays give up a top prospect to get Civale from Guardians
Guardians get:
1B Kyle Manzardo
Rays get:
RHP Aaron Civale
Rays grade: A-
Even if the Rays don't perform the magic that they tend to work on acquired players, this deal is a bonanza for a team with a real shot at a World Series crown this season. The Rays' injury-battered rotation, which lost Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs for the season and was missing Shane McClanahan for a couple of weeks, is coming off a prolonged rough stretch. Now they can roll out a rotation of McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Civale down the stretch, along with standout rookie Taj Bradley, whose innings and/or fatigue level might have to be managed. On the season, the Rays rank second in the majors with a 3.75 ERA, but that figure since June 10 has been 5.05, which ranks 25th during that span.
Well, Civale has a 2.34 ERA on the season and a 1.45 mark over six starts in July. And that's before the Rays get their hands on him. To be fair, the Guardians do a great job with their pitchers, so we can't assume an automatic bump for Civale when he gets to Tampa Bay. And these trends -- the Rays' rotation issues and Civale's hot streak -- weren't likely to keep on their current trajectories anyway.
Still, Civale is a proven starter at his peak, one with two more seasons of arbitration eligibility after this one. He's good enough that given the impact he can have on this stretch drive and into October -- not to mention the two the seasons to come when the Rays are likely to remain in contention -- he could possibly produce as much championship probability added in two-plus seasons with the Rays than Manzardo will during his controllable seasons with the Guardians.
Guardians grade: C-
The turnover in the Guardians' rotation has been startling, but that's what you can do when your scouting and development processes yield such a steady supply of productive young arms. When last season began, the starting group consisted of Shane Bieber (currently on the 60-day IL), Cal Quantrill (injured), Zach Plesac (in Triple-A after being DFA'd in early June), Triston McKenzie (on the IL, has missed most of the 2023 season) and Civale, now on his way to bolster the Rays' stretch run.
Cleveland could arguably afford to make a move like this despite the two-plus controllable seasons the arbitration-eligible Civale has remaining because the Guardians have gotten good work from so many rookie starting pitchers. Peyton Battenfield is on the shelf and Hunter Gaddis is back trying to figure things out in Triple-A, so the Guardians will lean heavily on Gavin Williams, Logan T. Allen and Rookie of the Year candidate Tanner Bibee down the stretch.
Moving Civale now, however, is a step back in Cleveland's right-now division title push. You can joke all you want about a .500 team making a push, but the Guardians are just a half-game back of a Minnesota Twins club that has shown little inclination of seizing control of baseball's most winnable division.
Even with the six years of control Cleveland will eventually get from Manzardo, I'm not thrilled with the deal because of its short-term implications. The 2023 statuses of McKenzie, Bieber and Quantrill are all murky ... and the pennant race is on right now. And after the deal last week in which the Guardians shipped starting shortstop Amed Rosario to the Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard, it's hard to argue that they've bolstered their chances at the deadline. It's easier to argue they've added disarray to a unit that was a team strength.
When you're just talking the big league roster -- which is what you should be talking about when a team is a half-game out of first place on the last day of July -- the Guardians have dealt their shortstop and one of the hottest starting pitchers in the AL for Syndergaard, who has pitched at a well-below-replacement level this season.
What would save the short-term part of the deal is if Manzardo were ready to assume an everyday role in Cleveland and help make up for the championship probability that left town with Rosario and Civale. However, I'm not seeing it. He's an excellent hitting prospect, to be sure. Kiley McDaniel rated him as the Rays' fourth-best prospect before the season and No. 83 overall with a 50 FV. But that was before the 2023 season began, and Manzardo has had an uneven season in Triple-A, slashing .238/.342/.442. He has a good approach and makes contact and some of his power shortfall this season might be due to park factors. But he's not a finished product. As Manzardo has risen through the minors, the 2021 second-round pick has increasingly struggled with lefties, against whom he's hitting .148/.262/.273 this season.
Could he bolster the Guardians' lineup down the stretch, at least against righties? Maybe, but it seems far from certain that he'd outproduce Josh Bell and the others already in Cleveland. The best bet right now would be for him to finish his work mastering the Triple-A level and position himself for the years ahead.
For a team with such an open path to the postseason at the deadline, I'm less concerned about the years ahead than I am in maximizing what I can do right now. This deal does not do that. It feels more like a deal in which a team is trying to come out ahead on the future value scale, which might happen, but Cleveland tends to spend too much time looking ahead and not enough on what is happening right in front of it. -- Doolittle
Angels land pair of Rockies players
Angels get:
1B C.J. Cron
OF Randal Grichuk (and cash)
Rockies get:
LHP Mason Albright
RHP Jake Madden
Angels grade: B+
The Angels were no doubt already on the prowl for more help for Shohei Ohtani in their desperate push for the playoffs, but after outfielder Taylor Ward was hit in the head on Saturday and suffered facial fractures, their offensive needs increased even more. Though the Angels do rank third in the AL in runs, they're also missing Brandon Drury, who has been out since June 30 with a shoulder issue, and Mike Trout, still recovering from his fractured hamate bone. So they pick up two veteran rentals in Cron and Grichuk for two low-A pitching prospects.
Cron will take over at first base, which has been an issue all season -- the Angels have started 10 different players there and rank 26th in the majors in OPS. The hope is that Cron -- back with the organization that drafted him in the first round in 2011 -- will at least give them some stability. He's hitting .260/.304/.476 with 11 home runs and missed nearly two months with back problems, but he's hit .319/.355/.569 since returning in late June. That's better than what to expect from him moving forward -- don't forget the Coors Field regression -- but he's an upgrade over the flotsam they've been running out there.
Grichuk should take over for Ward in left and he's hit .308/.365/.496. Again, Coors inflation and he's especially crushed lefties with an OPS over 1.000, but he's a decent enough addition given Ward's injury. Cron and Grichuk won't help the team's OPS, but they bring power and will help stabilize the middle of the order. Given the Angels' position -- they've clearly decided to go for it one last time with Ohtani, damn the future -- it made sense to make this deal and trade away two young pitchers. Check back in three years to see if they got burned here.
Rockies grade: C
Look, you never know about Class A pitching prospects, so let's give the Rockies a down-the-middle grade here. Cron and Grichuk were never going to fetch much -- first basemen and corner outfielders are usually in the least demand at the trade deadline unless they can really hit -- so the Rockies settled for two flyers from what is still one of the weaker farm systems.
Albright is a 20-year-old southpaw drafted in the 12th round out of the IMG Academy in 2021. He was at Low-A Inland Empire, where he has an 86/20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 79.2 innings. He was a 35 FV in Kiley McDaniel's preseason rankings and has performed well enough as a pitchability-type lefty with a low 90s fastball. He could be anything in three years. Madden was the higher-rated prospect entering 2023 after going in the fourth round in 2022 out of a Florida JC, but he has a 5.46 ERA at Inland Empire with 39 walks in 64.1 innings. He's a 6-6 righty who had Tommy John surgery in high school and still has room to fill out, but (as you might guess from that high walk rate) he does possess a power fastball in the upper 90s. He obviously has to improve the control to have any chance at starting, but he's years away from us knowing what he might turn into. It's not an obvious good return for the Rockies at this time, but stash the names away for future reference. -- Schoenfield
Braves add infield help from Royals
Braves get:
IF Nicky Lopez
Royals get:
LHP Taylor Hearn
Braves grade: B
On a team bursting with star-level talent, the Braves are in the market for mortar-fillers that offer the little things that can complement all of those big things that Atlanta does so well. In Nicky Lopez, the Braves have acquired the baseball version of a low-usage, 3-and-D shooting guard. He doesn't hit for power (he's hit five homers in over 1,800 career plate appearances -- and none since 2021). While he has excellent bat-on-ball skills, he just doesn't produce enough exit velocity to log consistently decent batting averages. And that's all fine -- the Braves have plenty of hard-contact on their roster.
Lopez draws a good amount of walks, at least for a player whom pitchers aren't afraid to pitch in the middle of the plate. He puts the ball in play. He's a strong bunter in an era when there just aren't many of those -- he's led the AL in sacrifices the last two seasons. He adds value on the bases, though his stolen base production has fallen off. Most importantly, Lopez plays great defense at the middle infield positions.
Lopez is a perfect -- perfect -- fit on this Braves roster, and they landed him for a player who had been with the organization for less than a week. Lopez's weakness at the plate prevents me from giving a higher grade but I love this deal for Atlanta.
Royals grade: D
What, really was the point of this trade? In a vacuum, you can tell why a team might see something to work with in Hearn. He's lefthanded and touches 99 miles per hours on his four-seamer. Hearn's control is wildly inconsistent, but the stuff is there to be harnessed.
The problem is that Hearn is a failed starter who is a month shy of his 29th birthday. He will be in his third season of arbitration eligibility this winter, though he will have a fourth season after that. Having recently been acquired by the Braves as a multi-inning reliever with a remaining option, you could see the fit in Atlanta, given their right-now timeline.
For the Royals? Moving Lopez makes sense and you weren't going to get a huge return. But K.C. could have gotten more than someone who has not yet produced at the big league level but already has a good deal of MLB service time. -- Doolittle
Rangers land Montgomery to further help rotation
Rangers get:
LHP Jordan Montgomery
RHP Chris Stratton
Cardinals get:
LHP John King
RHP Tekoah Roby
IF Thomas Saggese
Rangers grade: A-
As mentioned yesterday in our look at the Max Scherzer trade, the Rangers' rotation has been good in the aggregate this season but the trendline on everyone in the group was heading in the wrong direction, with one notable exception in Nathan Eovaldi.
Montgomery pitched somewhat better for the Cardinals than he did for the Yankees, and it would have been a defensible move for the Cardinals to be aggressive in extending him before it came to this. Instead, the Rangers are landing Montgomery at time when he is at his career peak -- he's actually having a better season than Scherzer -- and is motivated to produce in high-stakes games in advance of his first crack at free agency.
Assuming Eovaldi -- who was placed on the injured list Sunday with a right forearm strain -- returns and is able to resume his All-Star campaign, the Rangers are looking at a big three of Eovaldi, Scherzer and Montgomery, a strong No. 4 in Jon Gray and plenty of flexibility after that. Texas could go with a six-man rotation filled out by Andrew Heaney and either Martin Perez or Dane Dunning.
If manager Bruce Bochy wants to stick with a core five rotation, Dunning could be used as a high-quality multi-inning reliever, which is what he figures to be in October. That begs the question: What role might the struggling Perez have?
Stratton is more than a throw-in in this deal. The Rangers need bullpen help in all forms but especially in terms of depth. Stratton, another pending free agent, is a dependable, just-better-than-league-average righty who slots into a deepening group with Will Smith, Aroldis Chapman, Brock Burke, Jose Leclerc and Josh Sborz.
The Rangers have tapped into their prospect group twice now, with Kiley McDaniel's preseason No. 5 (Luisangel Acuna), No. 17 (Roby) and the unranked 40 FV Saggese headed outward in exchange for Scherzer, Montgomery, Stratton and, perhaps, a demonstrated willingness to amp up short-term spending.
Texas should keep going but this is already turning into the kind of deadline its fans had to be hoping for.
Cardinals grade: C
The actuarial aspect of this trade kind of works. You have two non-elite pending free agent pitchers. Their two months of remaining production would be a lot more valuable to a contending team than one that began Sunday looking up at the Pirates in the standings. Depending on how you see Roby (45 FV) and Saggese (40 FV), you could see how the math could work in future value estimations. The Cardinals have their own ways of making these estimates and obviously like Roby and Saggese.
Alas, I'm really not that excited about St. Louis' return. Call it a matter of opportunity cost. In this trade environment, with so many teams hunting for pitchers and so many teams in relative contention, I would have expected a better and differently-structured package that offered more upside potential, even if that meant dipping into the rookie complex leagues for a very young wild-card type or two.
I don't have a problem with either Roby or Saggese -- you need middle-of-the-road prospects, and the Cardinals produce plenty of them. But King? He's a 28-year-old lefty reliever, about to hit arbitration eligibility, who is what he is. He doesn't miss bats and throws a heavy sinker at 93-94 mph that produces a lot of groundballs. For lack of a better term, he's kind of a ham-and-egger.
The Cardinals have added to their organizational depth but could have done more. Maybe they could have fashioned a different outgoing package, folding in Montgomery and Hicks together in an effort to land one or two prospects with higher ceilings. As it is, this deal, on St. Louis' end, feels light. -- Doolittle
Blue Jays land deadline's top reliever in Hicks
Blue Jays get:
RHP Jordan Hicks
Cardinals get:
RHP Sem Rebborse
RHP Adam Kloffenstein
Blue Jays grade: B+
With closer Jordan Romano landing on the IL after leaving Friday's game with lower back discomfort, the Blue Jays struck quickly to acquire the best power reliever available. Hicks is still one of the hardest throwers in the game, with a fastball that has averaged 100.6 mph (only Jhoan Duran has a higher velocity among pitchers with at least 100 fastballs thrown this year), but he is still trying to find some consistency. Maybe he has found that over the past two-plus months, though -- since early May, he has a 1.88 ERA over 26 appearances with a much-improved 37-10 strikeout-walk ratio across 28⅔ innings.
With Romano sidelined, Hicks may even get a crack at closing. He has done that for the Cardinals since mid-June and has recorded eight saves in nine opportunities, although I wouldn't read too much into that success rate. Only two of those opportunities were one-run leads, and he blew one of them. Toronto's other option is probably Trevor Richards, who has 81 strikeouts in 53⅓ innings, but the Jays like him as somebody who can get more than three outs, plus he has allowed nine home runs. On the other hand, Hicks, with that triple-digit sinker, is difficult to get into the air and has allowed just two home runs. Certainly, Romano will remain the closer when he returns, but Hicks lengthens a Toronto pen that has been thin behind Richards, Tim Mayza and Erik Swanson. Given the lack of relievers available, the Jays did well to acquire Hicks, even with the risk that he reverts back to giving up too many walks and can't be entirely trusted in high-leverage situations.
Cardinals grade: B-
The Cardinals are no doubt frustrated that Hicks never really reached his potential in St. Louis, with Tommy John surgery wiping out much of 2019 through 2021, but as he heads into free agency, they at least were able to cash in on his well-timed breakout. They get two starting pitching prospects in Double-A for a rental reliever. Robberse, a 21-year-old native of the Netherlands, has a 4.06 ERA for New Hampshire in 18 starts. He was Kiley McDaniel's No. 10 Blue Jays prospect heading into the season with a 45 future value grade. Kloffenstein, a 22-year-old right-hander, has slightly outperformed Robberse at Double-A with a 3.24 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 89 innings, a nice rebound season after struggling in 2022 and falling off the prospect radar. Neither player is a high-ceiling prospect, but both are young, at least have the potential to start and will offer potential rotation depth for next season, which the Cardinals will need. If one of them eventually pans out as a back-end rotation starter, the Cardinals will be happy. -- Schoenfield
The Rangers are all-in! The Mets are ... rebuilding!? Grading Scherzer trade
Rangers get:
RHP Max Scherzer
Mets get:
IF Luisangel Acuna
Future Hall of Famer Scherzer is headed to Texas in the first true blockbuster of this MLB trade deadline. Read full analysis of the Scherzer trade here
Dodgers continue busy deadline with deal for Lynn, Kelly
Dodgers get:
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP Joe Kelly
White Sox get:
OF Trayce Thompson
RHP Nick Nastrini
RHP Jordan Leasure
Dodgers grade: C+
On the surface, it appears the Dodgers should have done better in adding pitching depth considering Lynn has a 6.47 ERA and leads the majors in home runs and earned runs allowed, while Kelly has a 4.97 ERA. Buried beneath those bloated ERAs, however, is the idea that both pitchers have strikeout stuff the Dodgers believe they can work with: Lynn has averaged 10.8 K's per nine, and Kelly has 41 strikeouts in 29 innings. Lynn has had huge problems in the first inning with a 10.29 ERA and 1.038 OPS allowed -- basically, in the first inning, every batter against him has been Shohei Ohtani. Yet the Dodgers and Rays both wanted Lynn. If those first-inning problems are something the Dodgers can fix with sequencing or another adjustment, that's a huge indictment of the White Sox.
Lynn doesn't even have to be great to be an upgrade in the rotation, just moderately useful. Emmet Sheehan threw six no-hit innings in his MLB debut but has an 8.49 ERA in his five starts since. Michael Grove is currently starting and has a 6.19 ERA with a lot of hits and home runs allowed. One of them will be out of the rotation and the other will be once Clayton Kershaw returns. Kelly is still throwing 99 mph with a wipeout slider and should assume a prominent role in a bullpen that ranks 19th in the majors in ERA. The Dodgers have been busy, adding the two pitchers plus Enrique Hernandez and Amed Rosario. Do they have a bigger deal in the works?
White Sox grade: B
Given how poorly Lynn has pitched, the White Sox did well to get an interesting high-upside arm in Nastrini, 23, the most notable prospect acquired here. He earned a preseason ranking of No. 139 overall (and ninth in the Dodgers' system) from Kiley McDaniel after a big season in the minors in 2022. The Dodgers drafted him in the fourth round out of UCLA in 2021 (although he had pitched so poorly in his draft year that he left the program and joined a local summer league team). He hasn't done much to improve on that preseason helium, however, with so-so results in Double-A: 73⅔ innings, 66 hits, 37 walks, 85 strikeouts -- all while averaging barely four innings a start. He's a big, physical right-hander and he owns a mid-90s heater, but the control issues and inability to pitch deeper into games means there's a high degree of reliever risk with him. Leasure, 24, is a righty reliever with impressive numbers at Double-A: 35 innings, 21 hits, 16 walks, 56 strikeouts. Thompson is just a throw-in for the White Sox to use when they need to fill the roster after possible further trades. -- Schoenfield
Astros acquire Graveman as White Sox continue to offload pitchers
Astros get:
RHP Kendall Graveman
White Sox get:
C Korey Lee
Astros grade: B-
This is the second time in three seasons the Astros have traded for Graveman before the deadline. In 2021, Houston acquired him from Seattle along with Rafael Montero for Joe Smith and Abraham Toro. Graveman had a 0.82 ERA for the Mariners at the time; with Houston over the rest of the season, it was 3.13 and he struggled with command. However, Graveman appeared in nine games for the Astros during the playoffs, posting a 1.64 ERA and getting into three games during the World Series loss to the Braves.
Clearly, those still around the Houston front office from that time liked what they saw enough to bring back the veteran righty. Indeed, not much seems to have changed in the metrics on his stuff or his arsenal since then, other than that he has become a little more reliant on his slider. Graveman's sinker has typically produced a lot of ground balls, a trait that will complement the more fly-ball-heavy ways of Bryan Abreu, Phil Maton and Montero. Graveman's ground ball rate this season has fallen, so that's something to monitor.
Houston relievers have had occasional trouble with lefty hitters, and, indeed, there isn't an established southpaw in the current mix. Graveman doesn't add to the lefty supply, but his numbers have never featured much of a platoon split and if anything, have tended to be slightly better against lefty swingers.
To sum: Houston lands a good, proven veteran with stuff that still plays and who has familiarity with the surroundings in Houston and the situations the Astros hope to face down the line. He owns a complementary skill set that fits with the current staff. Good stuff all around.
Dealing Lee was not nothing -- Kiley McDaniel rated him as the Astros' No. 5 prospect before the season -- but Graveman is under contract for 2024, so Houston had to provide more than a rental player value. The Astros still have Yainer Diaz to play the "catcher of the future" role, and he's been getting a lot of run with the big club this season. Still, if you want to argue that this is a mild overpay for bullpen depth, I wouldn't push back too hard.
White Sox grade: B
Dealing Graveman, with his year of team control after this one, suggests that this is a pretty deep retooling effort underway on the South Side. Chicago just dealt for a young catcher Wednesday, landing Edgar Quero from the Angels in the Lucas Giolito deal. But that's not a problem.
For one thing, Lee is three years older than Quero and has already debuted in the majors, and if we can assume that free-agent-to-be Yasmani Grandal is not long for the White Sox, Lee will likely get a long look down the stretch.
Also, Lee has a different skill set from that of bat-first Quero, with strong grades for his all-around receiving skills and a coveted 80 grade for his throwing ability from Baseball America. If Quero's bat is as good as hoped, there will be plenty of room for both on the roster when he eventually reaches Chicago.
Lee's bat is the question, and although he's having a passable year at the plate this season in Triple-A, his 2022 MLB debut saw him go 4-for-25 over 12 games. His development with the stick will determine how big of a role he can play in Chicago. As a first-round pick just four years ago, his is a talent worth taking a chance on, especially for a reliever who wasn't going to be adding any championship probability for a newly rebuilding (or at least retooling) squad.
Anyway, the White Sox organization looked light on catching prospects when the season opened. That much, along with so much else, has changed over the past couple of days. -- Doolittle
Mets send closer Robertson to Marlins for two prospects
Marlins get:
RHP David Robertson
Mets get:
2B Marco Vargas
C Ronald Hernandez
Marlins grade: B+
Tell me if you had this on your 2023 MLB season bingo card and be honest: The Mets and Marlins swing an intradivision deal just a few days before the deadline, and it's Miami taking the role of contender, adding a key bullpen veteran, while the payroll behemoth New Yorkers play the part of offloader.
The Marlins remain in the thick of what's become a six-team scramble for the three NL wild-card spots, with the surging Cubs joining the fray most recently. Meanwhile, Miami, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Arizona were all within one game of each other through Thursday's light slate.
Miami has been outscored by 19 runs this season but has remained well above the .500 mark since early June. An eight-game skid coming out of the All-Star break was a buzzkill but the Fish have won two of three since then with one of the victories coming in the form of a circa-2022 Sandy Alcantara special, a complete-game win over the Tampa Bay Rays.
So while Miami seems to be regressing toward its run differential is some ways, with its early-season wizardry in one-run games starting to even out, the Marlins are where they are: In the thick of a playoff race. It's a flawed team, obviously, with some real strengths that means Miami has a chance to benefit more marginally from roster upgrades than other NL contenders.
One of those areas for improvement is a bullpen that has been middle of the pack in ERA and a little worse than that in terms of save percentage and percentage of inherited runners that have scored. A.J. Puk has been the most oft-used reliever in closing spots, but he has been somewhere between inconsistent and unreliable. Since the beginning of July, he's sporting a 9.82 ERA over eight appearances while blowing three of five save chances.
Enter Robertson, who has been a bright spot in the Mets' abysmal season. He has pitched to a 2.05 ERA over 44 innings and has converted 14 of his 17 save opps. Robertson, 38, has struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings, which is down a bit from the last couple of years but compensated for that with much sharper command. You do worry about Robertson wearing down, as he did late last season, as he's had a lot injury problems over the years. But no veteran reliever is really without risk and he's been throwing the ball well.
Of the relievers who have been floated as trade possibilities, perhaps Pittsburgh's David Bednar or, more unlikely, San Diego's Josh Hader, would have been a splashier addition, but given what the Marlins usually are doing around the trade deadline, adding a veteran like Robertson for an essential bullpen role is pretty exciting and sends a positive message to the clubhouse that Miami is in it to win it. And if Miami does sneak into the playoffs, Robertson has 41 career postseason appearances under his belt, most recently with the Phillies in last year's World Series.
The Marlins have been busy over the past week or so adding veteran relievers Jose Castillo and Jorge Lopez. They still need to address their needs on offense. But so far, so good for a Miami club that appears to be intent on taking this postseason opportunity seriously.
Mets grade: B+
This is what noncontending teams do: They trade their impending free agents for whatever future value they can get. It's not what they wanted when the season began. It's not what owner Steve Cohen wanted when he permitted and even encouraged a $350 million-ish payroll. Ironically, right as this trade was being reported, the Mets were finishing off a spirited comeback win at home over Washington after a long weather delay, with Brooks Raley punching out C.J. Abrams to end it.
But that didn't change the reality, which is that the Mets own a roughly 1-in-20 chance of getting into the playoffs. The approach, as signaled by this deal, is to offload and it really shouldn't be any other way. According to reports, the Marlins will be taking on the remainder of Robertson's expiring, $10 million, one-year deal, so this will save the Mets a little cash. But it is really about adding to the prospect queue.
In Vargas (18) and Hernandez (19), the Mets landed two hitting prospects who together are younger than Robertson. Both have been playing for the Marlins' rookie complex club, where they were the most productive hitters on the roster and both owned huge on-base percentages, for what that's worth. Vargas is the higher rated of the two, carrying a 35+ FV in Kiley McDaniel's preseason rankings.
As ever, with prospects this young, except in rare exceptions, the fact is that maybe they turn into something or maybe this is the last time I will ever type their names. Either way, the Mets did the right thing because all indications are that this season's rocky ride is going to end when the regular-season schedule is complete. -- Doolittle
Brewers land Santana in NL Central swap with Pirates
Brewers get:
1B/DH Carlos Santana
Pirates get:
IF Jhonny Severino
Brewers grade: C+
I have no idea how the Brewers are in first place other than Craig Counsell being the reincarnation of Houdini. This is a bad, bad offensive team. Willy Adames and his .206 average and .291 OBP has been hitting third of late. As recently as a week ago, Jesse Winker and his .199 average with one home run was hitting cleanup. Milwaukee's first basemen are 29th in the majors in OPS, its DHs are also 29th and now Winker is on the injured list anyway, so Santana looks like an upgrade. Heck, he may be the new cleanup hitter even though he's basically been league-average for the Pirates, hitting .235/.321/.412 with 12 home runs, good for a 98 OPS+.
Pirates grade: B+
Trading Santana was kind of in the picture all along when the Pirates signed him in the offseason, and now that they have collapsed with a 6-15 record in June, that's the case. You can bet Rich Hill, another veteran on a one-year deal, will be next. The Pirates get a complete flyer in Severino, an 18-year-old shortstop/third baseman who has cracked four home runs in 12 games in the Arizona Complex League. He signed for $1.23 million in January 2022 and MLB.com ranked him the 21st-best prospect in his signing class, so he has a little more potential than the typical prospect included in a trade like this. There's a chance we may never hear about him again, but this deal is a good roll of the dice for Pittsburgh. -- Schoenfield
Angels show they're going for it with deal for Giolito, Lopez
Angels get:
RHP Lucas Giolito
RHP Reynaldo Lopez
White Sox get:
C Edgar Quero
LHP Ky Bush
Angels grade: B-
Together, as always, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez are on the move. After coming up through the Washington Nationals' system, Giolito and Lopez were shipped to Chicago along with Dane Dunning for Adam Eaton during the 2016 winter meetings. That was near the beginning of a thorough rebuild on the South Side. This deal, for Chicago, signifies that we are now all the way on the other side of that rebuild, one that ultimately failed, and a new one is under way. For the Angels, this trade signifies that everything -- and we mean everything -- is all about right now.
You can't divorce the news of this deal from what we learned earlier in the day, which is that the Halos would be hanging onto Shohei Ohtani for the rest of the season. Well, you can't do that and then stand pat -- and Angels GM Perry Minasian wasted no time springing into action.
Minasian landed two veteran righties, headlined by Giolito (6-6, 3.79 ERA, 9.7 K/9 over 121 innings), who has been a Cy Young contender when at his best. Meanwhile, Lopez has never quite fulfilled his potential in any of the roles the White Sox tried him in. He occasionally reaches triple-digits with his fastball and can vacillate wildly from dominant to lousy from game to game, or even within a game. That makes him both a wild card for the Angels and a classic change-of-scenery candidate. Don't sleep on what Lopez (2-5, four saves, 4.29 ERA, 11.1 K/9 over 42 innings) might mean to this deal.
And make no mistake: For this trade to pay off for L.A., both Giolito and Lopez need to excel and do so immediately because in terms of making an Ohtani-led charge for the playoffs, there is no time to waste. Seven games back in the AL West, the Angels' most likely path into the bracket is a wild card. And that is a crowded race and the teams ahead of them are all solid clubs. As of now, the Angles would need to climb over the Red Sox and Yankees in the AL standings and then overtake one of the three teams currently in wild-card position ... the Rays, Astros and Blue Jays.
While the Angels could and probably will make other moves, this is most likely going to be their biggest splash. Of the club's top four prospects before the season, Logan O'Hoppe (No. 2) has been out for three months, Zach Neto (No. 3) is their starting shortstop and the other two -- Quero (No. 1) and Bush (No. 4) -- were included in this deal. No. 5, Chase Silseth, is currently part of the big league staff and recently posted a solid start against the Yankees.
After the season, nothing is guaranteed. Giolito, a Southern California native, and Lopez will both hit the free agent road, along with Ohtani. We'll expound on Quero and Bush in the White Sox portion of the analysis, but suffice it to say: The Angels just traded a lot of future value for two two-month pitchers. For a return like this, Giolito needs to prove to be the best starter moved at the deadline and Lopez needs to make an impact in the back of the Angels' bullpen.
And even then, as the Angels wait out Mike Trout's eventual return from yet another injury, they still may end up out of the playoffs. It's a gamble that I think Minasian had to take, but it is very much a gamble, one with not particularly favorable odds.
White Sox grade: B+
Quero, only 20, was Kiley McDaniel's No. 40 overall prospect on the midseason top 50 and his top-rated Angels prospect. He's usually described as a bat-first backstop with a long way to go on defense, and if the latter project doesn't pan out, his lack of speed will probably confine him to first base. The last thing the White Sox need is another top prospect slated for first base, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Quero's superficial numbers at the plate are down this season after his move up to the Double-A level, but don't get too worked up about that. Last season, he raked to the tune of a .312/.435/.530 for Low-A Inland Empire; this season, he's at .246/.386/.332 for Double-A Rocket City. The lack of power this season is surprising, as Rocket City isn't a bad homer environment, but the Southern League overall slashes at .241/.342/.402 and Quero is 3.7 years younger than the average player in that circuit, according to Baseball-Reference.com. That on-base ability is special, so it's all about developing his backstop skills.
Bush is a hulking (6-foot-6, 240 pounds) lefty with a heavy four-seamer that sits in the 93 to 96 mph range. He began spring training with a chance to position himself for a big league debut for the Angels at some point in 2023, but his early season was wiped out by non-arm injuries -- first an oblique, then a groin injury. He didn't get started in Double-A until the third week of June. So while his season-level numbers aren't great (7.20 ERA, .866 OPS allowed, a little better than that in just his Double-A outings), he's really just getting going and his performance has been trending up. He will help the White Sox's rotation sooner than later.
If you have to offload -- and the 41-62 White Sox do -- this is the way to do it. Nevertheless, it's a disappointing time for their fans because this is not the way the rebuild, one built upon prospect acquisitions such as those of Giolito and Lopez, was supposed to turn out. Now, they will try again. Check back in seven years and we'll see how it went this time around. -- Doolittle
Dodgers land another veteran infielder in Rosario, deal Thor to Cleveland
Dodgers get
SS Amed Rosario
Guardians get
RHP Noah Syndergaard
Dodgers grade: B-
Rosario's season numbers are below his established level, but after an ugly first couple of months, he has gone back to being roughly what he has been in the past. And that's a pretty good hitter, especially for a player with his positional versatility. Like the just reacquired Enrique Hernandez, Rosario swings from the right side and has generally carried pronounced platoon splits favoring a prowess against lefties. But he is a different kind of hitter: more aggressive and contact-oriented with less demonstrated power. He also is an efficient base stealer after some early career adventures in that area. Rosario's power has ebbed this season, but the Dodgers have a way of rejuvenating players in this regard.
The thing is, it's unclear what exactly the Dodgers plan to do with both Rosario and Hernandez on the roster. It seems unlikely they would sacrifice an infield defense that has already been a sore spot by playing Rosario there. He had been Cleveland's primary player at shortstop, and his defensive metrics have been remarkably bad (minus-16 defensive runs saved). His defense, without his usual offensive numbers to lift it, has been so bad it has dragged his bWAR to below replacement level.
Perhaps the Dodgers have spotted a player they feel they can boost during the two months or so they are guaranteed to have him. Maybe he'll move around the infield, play second most of the time or just appear when the Dodgers face a lefty and disappear midgame when the lefty departs. But isn't that the plan for Hernandez? Fit aside, Rosario is exactly the kind of veteran from whom, when landed by the Dodgers, you would expect an almost immediate uptick. We have years of proof to give this particular organization the benefit of the doubt.
Guardians grade: C-
Did I mention Rosario has been below replacement level? The Guardians should be able to upgrade at shortstop with one of their cache of organizationally developed young players. Rosario was headed for free agency, and with Cleveland an overall disappointment, moving him now makes a lot of sense.
Who, now, is the Guardians' shortstop of the future? I don't know! Maybe it's Gabriel Arias. Maybe it's Brayan Rocchio. Maybe Andres Gimenez. I'm pretty sure it was not going to be Amed Rosario, not with those defensive numbers.
So it's really a question of the return, because even though this smacks of off-loading, Rosario's muddled right-now value doesn't necessarily signify the Guardians are punting on the season. Anything could happen in the American League Central, but the Guardians' middling performance means they should definitely straddle the fence between adding and subtracting, especially when you're talking about a team's most fecund area of depth.
So about that return ... Noah Syndergaard? This helps the Dodgers' payroll outlook. But if Cleveland was hoping to move Rosario while snagging some end-of-rotation depth, it's hard to see how this does the trick. There had to be a better option. The Guardians must see something in Thor that I don't. Without knowing what that is, I just can't get in board with this swap. -- Doolittle
Dodgers reunite with Enrique Hernandez in deal with Red Sox
Dodgers get
INF Enrique Hernandez
Red Sox get
RHP Nick Robertson
RHP Justin Hagenman
Dodgers grade: C
After two-plus seasons in Boston, Hernandez returns to the club where he was a valuable utility player for seven seasons. He's been starting at shortstop for the Red Sox, and frankly, he hasn't hit much at all the past two seasons: just .222/.286/.330, including a woeful 61 OPS+ in 2023 (he's been marginally better against lefties with a .260/.314/.338 line in 2023). He probably ends up as a right-handed platoon bat at second base -- note that Mookie Betts has started nine of the Dodgers' past 10 games at second, so now Betts can move back to the outfield (where the Dodgers are lefty heavy) against left-handed starters. This move increases L.A.'s lineup flexibility.
Red Sox grade: C
For the Red Sox, Trevor Story has played shortstop in two of his three rehab games, so the Red Sox must feel he is close to being ready and can handle the position defensively. In the meantime, Yu Chang steps in for Hernandez. It's a small move but it clears a little payroll for the Red Sox to make additional moves, and while the two relievers Boston is getting back are far from top prospects, they're two more arms for an organization that can use all the pitching help it can get. -- Schoenfield
Disappointing Mets add to bullpen in early deal
Mets get
RHP Trevor Gott
RHP Chris Flexen
Mariners get
LHP Zach Muckenhirn
Mets grade: C+
Beyond David Robertson and Brooks Raley, the bullpen depth has been issue for New York for most of the season. Any kind of stability would have been welcome, so they were willing to eat the $4 million or so remaining on Flexen's deal on Seattle's behalf just to get journeyman Gott. Gott isn't a hard thrower but pitches down in the zone, hits his spots and generally does a decent job of avoiding barrels. His margin for error is thin, but he's an upgrade for the Mets and will pitch meaningful innings. That is, the innings will be meaningful if the Mets can get off the mat and make something of their season.
Mariners grade: D
This was pretty much a salary dump for Seattle and it comes in a season in which they were hoping to contend. While the Mariners have floundered at or just below the .500 mark for most of the season, it's still not impossible that they make a run. This deal is not going to help them do that. Muckenhirn, a 28-year-old lefty with three big league innings under his belt, had been DFA'd by the Mets shortly before this deal was struck. You never know, maybe the Mariners see something in him. -- Doolittle
Breakout Rangers land resurgent reliever in Aroldis Chapman
Rangers get
LHP Aroldis Chapman
Royals get
LHP Cole Ragans
OF Roni Cabrera
Rangers grade: A-
The Rangers' bullpen was their glaring area of need, and while they'll want to do more, sliding Chapman into a high-leverage role and getting a jump on the deadline rush for relievers was great work by Chris Young and his staff. Yes, Chapman can be a hard guy to deal with and he did kind of just not show up for the Yankees in last year's postseason. But Texas has a good base of veterans in the clubhouse and a future Hall of Fame manager in Bruce Bochy, who has very much seen it all.
For a team with title aspirations, this may prove to be the biggest in-season bullpen upgrade any team makes this season. Since this trade was made, Chapman has been lights-out for his new club.
Royals grade: C-
While it's easy to understand why Texas wanted to get out in front of the Chapman sweepstakes, it's less clear why Kansas City was so anxious to cash in on what was basically found trade value after they scooped up Chapman over the winter. His presence in the Royals' bullpen meant nothing after the team's playoff probabilities dropped to about zero, which was sometime in the aftermath of Opening Day.
It's not a question of whether Ragans and/or Cabrera can develop with the Royals. It's that every organization has players like this, and there isn't any obvious reason the Royals needed to snap at this particular offer. That Chapman was able to amp up his stuff and build value under the Royals' watch is to their credit. Still, you have to think that had the Royals waited until the annual rush on relievers begins closer to the deadline, they could have gotten more than this. Or they could have made this deal at that point if nothing better came along. -- Doolittle