Baseball's trade deadline is exactly one week away, so we're entering the point when front offices go from information collection to substantive action, although plenty can change before 6 p.m. ET on Aug. 1 -- especially this summer.
At least a half-dozen teams are still unsure of how aggressively they will approach their deal-making over the next week. One general manager lamented not just the opacity of the market itself but his team's muddled, wait-and-see status, telling ESPN: "This is the best sellers' market of my lifetime. I almost wish I could commit to it and take advantage."
The lack of clarity has led to a sense that even if there is a flurry of deals -- and there always is -- the quality of players expected to be moved is the lowest in recent memory. Good players will be traded, yes, but nobody around the sport expects a deal with stars like Juan Soto in 2022, Trea Turner and Max Scherzer in 2021, Trevor Bauer in 2019, Manny Machado in 2018 or Yu Darvish in 2017.
The kind of blockbuster that would transform this deadline rests on the whims of Arte Moreno, the Los Angeles Angels' owner, who will either rubber-stamp a deal for two-way star Shohei Ohtani or spend the next two months praying the baseball gods smile on the Angels and grant their first playoff appearance in nearly a decade. For all of the other sure-it-could-happen deals -- the New York Mets move Scherzer or Justin Verlander, the St. Louis Cardinals ship out third baseman Nolan Arenado, the Chicago White Sox go full punt and trade Dylan Cease -- Ohtani is the sun around which baseball orbits, this week especially.
And although winning five of their past six has thrust the Angels back to at least the precipice of postseason contention, they still need to leapfrog Boston, New York and the current owner of the third American League wild card, Toronto, to secure a playoff spot. If they decide that's likely, hold onto Ohtani and then watch him leave via free agency, the Angels could end up with nothing to show for it but a pick between the second and third rounds of the 2024 draft. On the continuum of outcomes, that ranks somewhere between unconscionable and dreadful.
That logic is why executives with contending teams are holding out hope that Moreno reconciles that the pain of trading the best player in the world for a cornucopia of prospects is far more palatable than that of losing him for a million bucks in amateur draft bonus pool money. But until there's a clear sign from the Angels that Moreno is serious about moving Ohtani -- for context, last summer, the Nationals started putting out feelers on Soto in late June, and the Angels have not been nearly as proactive -- most teams are operating like he's staying put.
Which leaves the rest of the sport angling for the next best things -- which in this case means a disproportionate amount of attention trained on a pair of cities separated by 300 or so miles of I-55. Here is where the market stands -- and where it could go.
The teams we know will offload
Of all the players expected to move in the next week, the greatest concentration of talent comes from Chicago and St. Louis.
While the Cubs have yet to fully commit to dealing away veterans -- they're the only National League Central team with a positive run differential -- even the slightest stumble this week could push them to move arguably the best pitcher available (right-hander Marcus Stroman) and the best everyday player (center fielder Cody Bellinger).
The White Sox are clearly in unload mode, with right-hander Lucas Giolito -- right there with Stroman -- and right-handed relievers Reynaldo Lopez and Keynan Middleton headed out. Other free agents to-be include right-hander Lance Lynn, right-handed reliever Joe Kelly, catcher Yasmani Grandal and infielder Elvis Andrus -- all possible candidates to move. And don't forget Kendall Graveman, under contract for another year.
Eleven games back in the NL Central, the Cardinals are telling teams they plan to move left-hander Jordan Montgomery, right-hander Jack Flaherty, shortstop Paul DeJong and perhaps right-handed reliever Jordan Hicks, with near major league-ready pitching their target. Whether they deal from their surplus of outfielders remains an open question for a market that includes the New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Miami Marlins, with Seattle and Minnesota also in tire-kicking mode.
For now, the teams are asking filet prices for what the industry regards more as chuck talent. The deadline, and the ticking clock that accompanies it, typically helps the parties find a happy medium. It just takes time. And with 20 teams either occupying a playoff spot or within 5½ games of one, that time looks likely to stretch into the weekend.
The teams we know will add
Raise your hand if you thought at the beginning of the season the Cincinnati Reds and Texas Rangers would be patrolling the trade market as aggressively as any team. If your hand is in the air, you are a liar.
Three general managers said the same thing this week: They expect the Rangers to be among the most assertive teams at the deadline. It makes sense. The Houston Astros, on the hunt for a left-handed bat to balance their lineup, are just three games back -- and expect to get slugger Yordan Álvarez, second baseman Jose Altuve and starter Jose Urquidy back from the injured list by early August. The Rangers have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball, and while Ohtani is their white whale, a top-end starter and a bullpen player or two would fit alongside the most prolific offense in baseball.
It was only a year ago that the Reds, now a half-game back of the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central lead, shipped out 40% of their rotation in deadline deals. And sure, it's possible that all the calls they're making and background they're doing are simply due diligence and they take the long approach, not sacrificing a bright future for an uncertain present. But that's probably folly. Enough arms are out there that Cincinnati should surely grab one, especially with Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo out until at least August. In return, teams believe Jonathan India, whose long-term future with the Reds is up in the air, could be the sort of player to land them the starter they need.
The Dodgers covet Ohtani -- though the thought of Moreno sending him up the 5 is entirely far-fetched -- and could use a rental arm to join Julio Urias and an on-the-mend Clayton Kershaw in their October rotation. Los Angeles, with its recent Machado/Darvish/Turner/Scherzer deadline mic drops, has proven rather adept at keeping its best prospects in big deals, so perhaps the Dodgers have something up their sleeve.
Another surprise NL contender to watch: Arizona isn't being shy about its needs. The Diamondbacks want pitching of all manner and variety, with Giolito or Montgomery both good fits.
The teams we think will add
Yes, the entire AL East fits into this one category. That's what happens in the best division in baseball. The Baltimore Orioles should, by all accounts, be attempting to upgrade their rotation, with the best record in the AL but a starters' ERA (4.58) that ranks in the bottom half of the league. With the best system in baseball, Baltimore has the ability to look in the upper end of the market, though that hasn't been its style. So far, the O's are playing coy enough that other executives aren't entirely sure what sort of a deadline to expect in Baltimore.
With season-ending injuries to starters Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay is searching for pitching. Budgetary limitations hinder those efforts, as does the Rays' reality that to remain competitive they must continue to value club control of younger players more than their opponents. Accordingly, the Rays will preach a deliberate approach to the deadline, although some executives believe they're slow-playing the market, especially in lieu of losing first place in the AL East to Baltimore.
Despite currently holding the final wild-card spot, Toronto hasn't done enough to convince ownership to open up the coffers, leaving the Blue Jays precisely where they've been all season: the muddled middle. That said, when asked where Ohtani could wind up if he's moved, three of the most popular answers from executives are Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Toronto (the Blue Jays are a longer shot due to a thinner farm system).
The two most pedigreed AL East teams, New York and Boston, aren't ignoring the fact that they're in last place in their division -- but because they are in New York and Boston, they're not punting, either. New York needs a bat and Boston an arm, and both are likely to get them in the coming week.
On the other coast, San Diego is acting as if it's still pursuing a playoff spot, despite its 48-52 record. Executives who have asked about left-hander Blake Snell -- the best pitcher in baseball for two months running, with a 0.71 ERA in his past 11 starts -- and left-handed closer Josh Hader have been rebuffed, despite both players heading to free agency this winter. If they can't fortify their bullpen via trade, the Padres could potentially turn to right-handers Adam Mazur and Jairo Iriarte, two of their best pitching prospects, who have gone from the rotation to relief roles upon their recent promotions to Double-A.
At 53-48 and sporting a three-game lead in the AL Central, Minnesota could be a bigger factor in another year, but its taste buds for deadline deals are, for now, deadened. Last year, in deals to get right-handed starter Tyler Mahle and right-handed reliever Jorge Lopez, they sent utilityman Spencer Steer and infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand to Cincinnati and All-Star reliever Yennier Cano and left-handed pitching prospect Cade Povich to Baltimore -- both deals that, in hindsight, look brutal. The Twins still could add to boost their chances of making a run in October; they are just more likely to be looking for value additions than making a big splash. One of their left-handed bats -- Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner -- could be made available to get the return they desire.
Likewise, the Milwaukee Brewers could attempt to pull off a more elegant version of their ill-fated add-and-subtract attempt at the last deadline. For a catcher-hungry team, Victor Caratini could be had, as could starter Colin Rea, who has turned into a respectable five-inning starter since they plucked him off the scrap heap after a middling two seasons in Japan. Milwaukee's promotion of prospects -- the latest sparkplug outfielder Sal Frelick -- speaks to a desire to win now. Replacing Rea with a better starter would go a long way toward that. Other add-and-subtract candidates: Cleveland, which is under .500 but just three back of Minnesota, and San Francisco, which chased a recent seven-game winning streak with six consecutive losses.
The New York Mets' cratering not only allowed Atlanta to run away with the NL East -- the Braves already acquired relievers Pierce Johnson and Taylor Hearn and are seen by other teams as more of an add-at-the-margins sort -- but also created an opening for Miami to climb into contention. And the Marlins are still looking to add, even after a recent eight-game losing streak dropped them out of a playoff spot and behind Philadelphia. The Marlins have scored just 414 runs this season, ahead of only a flaccid Pittsburgh lineup among NL teams, so bats are a priority. Philadelphia is in a similar market, with Bryce Harper's move to first base allowing Kyle Schwarber to move to designated hitter and creating a hole in left field that could be filled by the very Mets team whose failures created an opening for the Phillies to dig themselves out of a bad start.
The teams we think will offload
Many teams expect the Mets to engage in a soft unloading. Outfielder Tommy Pham would be among the best bats available. Outfield mate Mark Canha should join him. And barring the entry of another closer, David Robertson would be the top reliever on the market. They could shed a coterie of other relievers -- righties Adam Ottavino and Trevor Gott, lefty Brooks Raley -- but those three are controlled by the Mets through at least 2024.
Seattle, coming off its first playoff appearance in two decades, finds itself in a tricky spot as well. Adding is unlikely, unless a controllable frontline bat hits the market, as the Mariners don't want to trade from their surfeit of excellent big league starting pitchers. This week will determine if Seattle goes the other way. If the Mariners don't make up ground in the next few games this week, they could start to take offers on closer Paul Sewald and outfielder Teoscar Hernández, the latter of whom is due to hit free agency. Sewald, with another year of control, could reap a significant return, with every contender -- except perhaps Philadelphia -- craving another high-leverage arm.
The Detroit Tigers are about as far back in the AL Central as the Cubs are in the NL Central, but they've also got the fifth-worst run differential in baseball and a group of pitchers that could fetch a nice return. Eduardo Rodriguez can opt out of the remainder of his $49 million contract after the season and has been genuinely elite this year when he has been healthy, sporting a 2.69 ERA that's mostly supported by his peripherals. Michael Lorenzen, the team's All-Star representative, has been the definition of solid, averaging around six innings per start.
In the bullpen, there's Jason Foley, who hasn't allowed a home run in 43.1 innings this year, along with lefty Tyler Holton and closer Alex Lange. All have at least four years of control, and the mediocre rental market for relievers could prompt teams to turn to relievers that will cost a higher return.
The Washington Nationals don't have a player of Soto's caliber to offer this year, but there are a handful of players on the Nats roster that should keep GM Mike Rizzo's phone ringing for the next week. Jeimer Candelario is a pure rental who should fetch a decent return for his power (15 home runs), defense (well above average) and cost (around $1.7 million for the remainder of the season). Lane Thomas has been the Nationals best player this season with a .295/.341/.494 line. He's only 27, and they've got two years of club control remaining so the Nationals don't have to deal him and the return will understandably have to be high. Kyle Finnegan, a total is-who-he-is reliever, will punch out about a batter an inning and give up a few too many home runs for anyone's liking while throwing almost all fastballs. If Washington is seeking closer return prices for Finnegan, he's bound to stay. Another relief option: Carl Edwards Jr., who will be a free agent following the 2023 season.
And if a team gets really desperate ...
There's a reason these teams all sit near the bottom of the standings, but they all could have something to offer for a contender looking for value rather than a big-name addition.
Oakland could move reliever Trevor May, who has a 2.61 ERA in 20.2 innings since returning from the injured list and has thrown 5.1 scoreless playoff innings in three postseasons dating back to 2019, and starter Paul Blackburn. Blackburn has been eminently hittable, and his 5.06 ERA is rather unsightly, but he is an Oakland A, which means he's liable to be traded at any time. And Tony Kemp is a potential bench bat with speed and the ability to competently patrol second base and outfield.
Teams looking for a veteran presence could find a match in Pittsburgh. Rich Hill is a name to watch because ... it's July, and Rich Hill getting traded in July has happened twice before. Houston or a reunion in Los Angeles sounds about right. Meanwhile, Carlos Santana's offensive output this season is below-average, but he is regarded as a solid clubhouse leader and the Pirates gladly will shed the final $2 million-plus left on his one-year deal. Deals for closer David Bednar or starter Mitch Keller, both of whom will be in arbitration next season, are unlikely.
Scott Barlow of the Kansas City Royals would be a name add for a contender in need of bullpen help. Barlow has lost nearly 3 mph off his peak fastball velocity and now relies more on his slider than his heater. His stock has plummeted to the point where a number of teams would rather have flamethrowing right-hander Carlos Hernández if Kansas City does deal from its bullpen. Free agent-to-be Brad Keller -- out since May and now on a rehab assignment -- could move as well. Veteran Zack Greinke is expected to stay with the Royals.
The left-handed reliever options are especially dreadful this summer, but the Rockies might have a little something to offer at a reasonable value with Brent Suter back from the IL and available as a rental on his way to free agency along with teammate Brad Hand.
Trading for a Rockies position player is always complicated because of how performance at altitude clouds their true deadline value, but Colorado has three hitters it could be motivated to move.
Randal Grichuk is nobody's idea of an impact player, but his numbers this season tell a different story. He's hitting .302/.363/.479 -- although his OPS, not surprisingly, is 140 points higher at Coors Field than on the road. C.J. Cron hits home runs and plays a decent first. And while he's getting hot at the right time -- .317/.349/.600 over the past four weeks -- he is far more a complementary player than savior. Then there's Jurickson Profar, who among players with at least 300 plate appearances this season has the third-worst WAR by Baseball-Reference's measure (-1.0) and second worst by FanGraphs (-1.3). And if you needed any further reminder of just how pedestrian this deadline may be, teams are kicking around the idea of acquiring him.